1
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Canonne C, Bernard-Laurent A, Souchay G, Perrot C, Besnard A. Contrasted impacts of weather conditions in species sensitive to both survival and fecundity: A montane bird case study. Ecology 2023; 104:e3932. [PMID: 36448209 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3932] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Revised: 09/16/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
There is growing evidence that the Earth's climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking. Yet, climate change is expected to strongly affect them throughout their entire lifecycle. We built a 21-year integrated population model to characterize the population dynamics of the rock partridge (Alectoris graeca) in France, and tested the influence of nine weather covariates on demographic parameters. As predicted, both annual survival and breeding success were affected by weather covariates. Thick snow cover during winter was associated with low survival and small brood size the following breeding season. Brood size was higher with intermediate winter temperatures and snowmelt timing, positively correlated to breeding period temperature, but negatively correlated to temperature during the coldest fortnight and precipitation during the breeding period. Survival was positively correlated to winter temperature, but negatively to breeding period precipitation. Large-scale indices indicated that cold and wet winters were associated with small brood size the following breeding season but with high survival. Expected changes of weather conditions due to climate change are likely to impact demographic traits of the rock partridge both positively and negatively depending on the traits and on the affected weather variables. Future population dynamics will thus depend on the magnitude of these different impacts. Our study illustrates the difficulty to make strong predictions about how species with a population dynamic influenced by both survival and fecundity will respond to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Coline Canonne
- CEFE, University of Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France.,DRAS OFB, French Biodiversity Agency, Juvignac, France
| | | | | | | | - Aurélien Besnard
- CEFE, University of Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France
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2
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Bonnet T, Morrissey MB, de Villemereuil P, Alberts SC, Arcese P, Bailey LD, Boutin S, Brekke P, Brent LJN, Camenisch G, Charmantier A, Clutton-Brock TH, Cockburn A, Coltman DW, Courtiol A, Davidian E, Evans SR, Ewen JG, Festa-Bianchet M, de Franceschi C, Gustafsson L, Höner OP, Houslay TM, Keller LF, Manser M, McAdam AG, McLean E, Nietlisbach P, Osmond HL, Pemberton JM, Postma E, Reid JM, Rutschmann A, Santure AW, Sheldon BC, Slate J, Teplitsky C, Visser ME, Wachter B, Kruuk LEB. Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals. Science 2022; 376:1012-1016. [PMID: 35617403 DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothée Bonnet
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | | | - Pierre de Villemereuil
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), École Pratique des Hautes Études, PSL, MNHN, CNRS, SU, UA, Paris, France.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Susan C Alberts
- Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Peter Arcese
- Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Liam D Bailey
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Stan Boutin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Patricia Brekke
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London, UK
| | - Lauren J N Brent
- Centre for Research in Animal Behaviour, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Glauco Camenisch
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Anne Charmantier
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Tim H Clutton-Brock
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Andrew Cockburn
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - David W Coltman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Alexandre Courtiol
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Eve Davidian
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Simon R Evans
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - John G Ewen
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London, UK
| | | | - Christophe de Franceschi
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Lars Gustafsson
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Oliver P Höner
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Thomas M Houslay
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Lukas F Keller
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Zoological Museum, University of Zurich,, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Marta Manser
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Andrew G McAdam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Emily McLean
- Biology Department, Oxford College, Emory University, Oxford, GA, USA
| | - Pirmin Nietlisbach
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USA
| | - Helen L Osmond
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | | | - Erik Postma
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Jane M Reid
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Alexis Rutschmann
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Anna W Santure
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Ben C Sheldon
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jon Slate
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Céline Teplitsky
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Bettina Wachter
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Loeske E B Kruuk
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.,Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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3
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Hunter DC, Ashraf B, Bérénos C, Ellis PA, Johnston SE, Wilson AJ, Pilkington JG, Pemberton JM, Slate J. Using genomic prediction to detect microevolutionary change of a quantitative trait. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220330. [PMID: 35538786 PMCID: PMC9091855 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Detecting microevolutionary responses to natural selection by observing temporal changes in individual breeding values is challenging. The collection of suitable datasets can take many years and disentangling the contributions of the environment and genetics to phenotypic change is not trivial. Furthermore, pedigree-based methods of obtaining individual breeding values have known biases. Here, we apply a genomic prediction approach to estimate breeding values of adult weight in a 35-year dataset of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Comparisons are made with a traditional pedigree-based approach. During the study period, adult body weight decreased, but the underlying genetic component of body weight increased, at a rate that is unlikely to be attributable to genetic drift. Thus cryptic microevolution of greater adult body weight has probably occurred. Genomic and pedigree-based approaches gave largely consistent results. Thus, using genomic prediction to study microevolution in wild populations can remove the requirement for pedigree data, potentially opening up new study systems for similar research.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. C. Hunter
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
- School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9ST, UK
| | - B. Ashraf
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
- Department of Anthropology, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - C. Bérénos
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - P. A. Ellis
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - S. E. Johnston
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - A. J. Wilson
- Centre of Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK
| | - J. G. Pilkington
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - J. M. Pemberton
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - J. Slate
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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4
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Tsai MS, Newman C, Macdonald DW, Buesching CD. Adverse weather during in utero development is linked to higher rates of later-life herpesvirus reactivation in adult European badgers, Meles meles. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:211749. [PMID: 35582658 PMCID: PMC9091846 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Maternal immune and/or metabolic conditions relating to stress or nutritional status can affect in utero development among offspring with subsequent implications for later-life responses to infections. We used free-ranging European badgers as a host-pathogen model to investigate how prenatal weather conditions affect later-life herpesvirus genital tract reactivation. We applied a sliding window analysis of weather conditions to 164 samples collected in 2018 from 95 individuals born between 2005-2016. We test if the monthly mean and variation in rainfall and temperature experienced by their mother during the 12 months of delayed implantation and gestation prior to parturition subsequently affected individual herpes reactivation rates among these offspring. We identified four influential prenatal seasonal weather windows that corresponded with previously identified critical climatic conditions affecting badger survival, fecundity and body condition. These all occurred during the pre-implantation rather than the post-implantation period. We conclude that environmental cues during the in utero period of delayed implantation may result in changes that affect an individual's developmental programming against infection or viral reactivation later in life. This illustrates how prenatal adversity caused by environmental factors, such as climate change, can impact wildlife health and population dynamics-an interaction largely overlooked in wildlife management and conservation programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming-shan Tsai
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Abingdon Road, Tubney House, Tubney, Oxfordshire OX13 5QL, UK
| | - Chris Newman
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Abingdon Road, Tubney House, Tubney, Oxfordshire OX13 5QL, UK
- Cook's Lake Farming Forestry and Wildlife Inc (Ecological Consultancy), Queens County, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - David W. Macdonald
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Abingdon Road, Tubney House, Tubney, Oxfordshire OX13 5QL, UK
| | - Christina D. Buesching
- Cook's Lake Farming Forestry and Wildlife Inc (Ecological Consultancy), Queens County, Nova Scotia, Canada
- Department of Biology, Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science, The University of British Columbia, Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada
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5
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Evers SM, Knight TM, Inouye DW, Miller TEX, Salguero-Gómez R, Iler AM, Compagnoni A. Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1927-1941. [PMID: 33586192 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 12/19/2020] [Accepted: 12/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanne M Evers
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Tiffany M Knight
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - David W Inouye
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA
| | - Tom E X Miller
- Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Department of BioSciences, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - Amy M Iler
- Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, USA
- The Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, IL, USA
| | - Aldo Compagnoni
- Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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6
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Paniw M, Childs DZ, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Martin JGA, Oli MK, Ozgul A. Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:588-597. [PMID: 31970918 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Accepted: 12/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.,Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, ES-08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Kenneth B Armitage
- Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Department, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045-7534, USA
| | - Daniel T Blumstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.,The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
| | - Julien G A Martin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.,Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1N 9A7, Canada
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland
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