Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs

Resilience to periodic disturbances and the long-term genetic stability in Acropora coral

Climate change is restructuring natural ecosystems. The direct impacts of these events on biodiversity and community structure are widely documented, but the impacts on the genetic variation of populations remains largely unknown. We monitored populations of Acropora coral on a remote coral reef system in northwest Australia for two decades and through multiple cycles of impact and recovery. We combined these demographic data with a temporal genetic dataset of a common broadcast spawning corymbose Acropora to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity underlying recovery. Our data show that broad-scale dispersal and post-recruitment survival drive recovery from recurrent disturbances, including mass bleaching and mortality. Consequently, genetic diversity and associated patterns of connectivity are maintained through time in the broader metapopulation. The results highlight an inherent resilience in these globally threatened species of coral and showcase their ability to cope with multiple disturbances, given enough time to recover is permitted.

Temporal variations of biofouling assemblages of a coral reef ecosystem during a monsoon period

Coral reefs are highly biodiverse ecosystems, enriched by a range of biofouling species. Temporal variations in biofouling can affect ecosystem stability, but these diverse coral-associated communities remain underexplored in some regions. In the present study, biofouling assemblages of coral reefs in the Chabahar Bay were investigated during a summer monsoon at three deployment periods. In total, 26 taxa were identified with barnacles and polychaetes being the dominant taxa during the whole study. The coverage percentage was driven mostly by the encrusting taxa such as bryozoans and algae while biomass was determined by the dominance of shell-forming taxa. The results of PERMANOVA showed that the effects of the submersion period were significant on the assemblage structure. Biofouling assessment plays a pivotal role in safeguarding the intricate balance and long-term health of coral reef ecosystems. For a comprehensive understanding of biofouling dynamics and interactions with coral-associated species, conducting long-term studies is vital.

Disturbance intensification is altering the trait composition of Caribbean reefs, locking them into a low functioning state

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying natural disturbance regimes, which negatively affects some species, while benefiting others. This could alter the trait composition of ecological communities and influence resilience to disturbance. We investigated how the frequency and intensification of the regional storm regime (and likely other disturbances) is altering coral species composition and in turn resistance and recovery. We developed regional databases of coral cover and composition (3144 reef locations from 1970 to 2017) and of the path and strength of cyclonic storms in the region (including 10,058 unique storm-reef intersections). We found that total living coral cover declined steadily through 2017 (the median annual loss rate was ~ 0.25% per year). Our results also indicate that despite the observed increase in the intensity of Atlantic cyclonic storms, their effect on coral cover has decreased markedly. This could be due in part to selection for disturbance-resistant taxa in response to the intensifying disturbance regime. We found that storms accelerated the loss of threatened acroporid corals but had no measurable effect on the cover of more resilient "weedy" corals, thereby increasing their relative cover. Although resistance to disturbance has increased, recovery rates have slowed due to the dominance of small, slow-growing species. This feedback loop is locking coral communities into a low-functioning state dominated by weedy species with limited ecological or societal value.

Mesophotic benthic communities associated with a submerged palaeoshoreline in Western Australia

Key ecological features (KEFs) are elements of Australia's Commonwealth marine environment considered to be important for biodiversity or ecosystem function, yet many KEFs are poorly researched, which can impede effective decision-making about future development and conservation. This study investigates a KEF positioned over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shoreline on the northwest shelf of Australia (known as the 'Ancient Coastline at ~125m depth contour'; AC125). Seafloor bathymetry, sedimentology and benthic habitats were characterised within five study areas using multibeam sonar, sediment samples and towed video imagery. Direct evidence for the existence of a palaeoshoreline formed during the LGM was not found, however candidate areas to find palaeoshoreline material at or just below the modern seabed were discovered. Approximately 98% of the seabed surveyed was comprised of unconsolidated soft sediment habitat (mud/sand/silt) supporting negligible epibenthic biota. The prevalence of soft sediment suggests that post-glacial sediments have infilled parts of the palaeoshoreline, with cross-shelf, probably tidal currents in the northern section of the study area responsible for some of the sediment mobilisation and southern study areas more influenced by oceanic conditions. Within study areas, total biotic cover ranged from 0.02% to 1.07%. Of the biota encountered, most comprised filter feeder organisms (including gorgonians, sponges, and whip corals) whose distribution was associated with pockets of consolidated hard substrate. Benthic community composition varied with both study area and position in relation to the predicted AC125. In general, consolidated substrate was proportionally higher in water shallower than the AC125 compared to on the AC125 or deeper than the AC125. Spatially continuous maps of predicted benthic habitat classes (pre-determined benthic communities) in each study area were developed to characterise biodiversity. Spatial modelling corroborated depth and large-scale structural complexity of the seafloor as surrogates for predicting likely habitat class. This study provides an important assessment of the AC125 and shows that if a distinct coastline exists in the areas we surveyed, it is now largely buried and as such does not provide a unique hard substrate habitat. However, much work remains to fully locate and map the ancient coastline within the vast region of the AC125 and additional surveys in shallow waters adjacent to the AC125 may identify whether some sections lie outside the currently defined KEF.

Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world's coral reefs

Anthropogenic disturbances are posing unprecedented challenges to the persistence of ecosystems worldwide. The speed at which these disturbances reach an ecosystem's tolerance thresholds will determine the time available for adaptation and conservation. Here, we aim to calculate the year after which a given environmental stressor permanently exceeds the bounds of an ecosystem's tolerance. Ecosystem thresholds are here defined as limits in a given stressor beyond which ecosystems have showed considerable changes in community assembly and functioning, becoming remnants of what they once were, but not necessarily leading to species extirpation or extinction. Using the world's coral reefs as a case example, we show that the projected effects of marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, storms, land-based pollution, and local human stressors are being underestimated considerably by looking at disturbances independently. Given the spatial complementarity in which numerous disturbances impact the world's coral reefs, we show that the timelines of environmental suitability are halved when all disturbances are analyzed simultaneously, as opposed to independently. Under business-as-usual scenarios, the median year after which environmental conditions become unsuitable for the world's remaining coral reefs was, at worse, 2050 for any one disturbance alone (28 years left); but when analyzed concurrently, this date was shortened to 2035 (13 years left). When analyzed together, disturbances reduced the date of environmental suitability because areas that may remain suitable under one disturbance could become unsuitable by any of several other variables. The significance of co-occurring disturbances at reducing timeframes of environmental suitability was evident even under optimistic scenarios. The best-case scenario, characterized by strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and optimistic human development, resulted in 41% of global coral reefs with unsuitable conditions by 2100 under any one disturbance independently; yet when analyzed in combination up to 64% of the world's coral reefs could face unsuitable environmental conditions by one disturbance or another. Under the worst-case scenario, nearly all coral reef ecosystems worldwide (approximately 99%) will permanently face unsuitable conditions by 2055 in at least one of the disturbances analyzed. Prior studies have indicated the projected dire effects of climate change on coral reefs by mid-century; by analyzing a multitude of projected disturbances, our study reveals a much more severe prognosis for the world's coral reefs as they have significantly less time to adapt while highlighting the urgent need to tackle available solutions to human disturbances.

Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios

Management of coral predators, corallivores, is recommended to improve coral cover on tropical coral reefs under projected increasing levels of accumulated thermal stress, but whether corallivore management can improve coral cover, which is necessary for large-scale operationalisation, remains equivocal. Here, using a multispecies ecosystem model, we investigate intensive management of an invertebrate corallivore, the Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and show that culling could improve coral cover at sub-reef spatial scales, but efficacy varied substantially within and among reefs. Simulated thermal stress events attenuated management-derived coral cover improvements and was dependent on the level of accumulated thermal stress, the thermal sensitivity of coral communities and the rate of corallivore recruitment at fine spatial scales. Corallivore management was most effective when accumulated thermal stress was low, coral communities were less sensitive to heat stress and in areas of high corallivore recruitment success. Our analysis informs how to manage a pest species to promote coral cover under future thermal stress events.

This study uses multispecies modelling to show that the management of a coral predator, the crown-of-thorns starfish, could help corals recover following bleaching events. They show that management was most effective when heat stress severity for corals was low to moderate, when corals had lower heat sensitivity and when the recruitment rate of starfish was high.

Impact of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) enrichment and skewed N:P stoichiometry on the skeletal formation and microstructure of symbiotic reef corals

Reported divergent responses of coral growth and skeletal microstructure to the nutrient environment complicate knowledge-based management of water quality in coral reefs. By re-evaluating published results considering the taxonomy of the studied corals and the N:P stoichiometry of their nutrient environment, we could resolve some of the major apparent contradictions. Our analysis suggests that Acroporids behave differently to several other common genera and show distinct responses to specific nutrient treatments. We hypothesised that both the concentrations of dissolved inorganic N and P in the water and their stoichiometry shape skeletal growth and microstructure. We tested this hypothesis by exposing Acropora polystoma fragments to four nutrient treatments for > 10 weeks: high nitrate/high phosphate (HNHP), high nitrate/low phosphate (HNLP), low nitrate/high phosphate (LNHP) and low nitrate/low phosphate (LNLP). HNHP corals retained high zooxanthellae densities and their linear extension and calcification rates were up to ten times higher than in the other treatments. HNLP and LNLP corals bleached through loss of symbionts. The photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm) of residual symbionts in HNLP corals was significantly reduced, indicating P-starvation. Micro-computed tomography (µCT) of the skeletal microstructure revealed that reduced linear extension in nutrient limited or nutrient starved conditions (HNLP, LNHP, LNLP) was associated with significant thickening of skeletal elements and reduced porosity. These changes can be explained by the strongly reduced linear extension rate in combination with a smaller reduction in the calcification rate. Studies using increased skeletal density as a proxy for past thermal bleaching events should consider that such an increase in density may also be associated with temperature-independent response to the nutrient environment. Furthermore, the taxonomy of corals and seawater N:P stoichiometry should be considered when analysing and managing the impacts of nutrient pollution.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00338-022-02223-0.

A tale of two reef systems: Local conditions, disturbances, coral life histories, and the climate catastrophe

Coral reefs have evolved over millennia to survive disturbances. Yet, in just a few decades chronic local pressures and the climate catastrophe have accelerated so quickly that most coral reefs are now threatened. Rising ocean temperatures and recurrent bleaching pose the biggest threat, affecting even remote and well-managed reefs on global scales. We illustrate how coral bleaching is altering reefs by contrasting the dynamics of adjacent reef systems over more than two decades. Both reef systems sit near the edge of northwest Australia's continental shelf, have escaped chronic local pressures and are regularly affected by tropical storms and cyclones. The Scott reef system has experienced multiple bleaching events, including mass bleaching in 1998 and 2016, from which it is unlikely to fully recover. The Rowley Shoals has maintained a high cover and diversity of corals and has not yet been impacted by mass bleaching. We show how the dynamics of both reef systems were driven by a combination of local environment, exposure to disturbances and coral life history traits, and consider future shifts in community structure with ongoing climate change. We then demonstrate how applying knowledge of community dynamics at local scales can aid management strategies to slow the degradation of coral reefs until carbon emissions and other human impacts are properly managed.

Geomorphically controlled coral distribution in degraded shallow reefs of the Western Caribbean

The development of coral reefs results from the interaction between ecological and geological processes in space and time. Their difference in scale, however, makes it difficult to detect the impact of ecological changes on geological reef development. The decline of coral cover over the last 50 years, for example, has dramatically impaired the function of ecological processes on reefs. Yet given the limited-resolution of their Holocene record, it is uncertain how this will impact accretion and structural integrity over longer timescales. In addition, reports of this ecological decline have focused on intrinsic parameters such as coral cover and colony size at the expense of extrinsic ones such as geomorphic and environmental variables. Despite these problems, several attempts have been made to predict the long-term accretion status of reefs based entirely on the contemporary health status of benthic communities. Here we explore how this ecological decline is represented within the reef geomorphic structure, which represents the long-term expression of reef development. Using a detailed geomorphic zonation scheme, we analyze the distribution and biodiversity of reef-building corals in fringing-reef systems of the Mesoamerican Reef tract. We find a depth-related pattern in community structure which shows that the relative species distribution between geomorphic zones is statistically different. Despite these differences, contemporary coral assemblages in all zones are dominated by the same group of pioneer generalist species. These findings imply that first, coral species distribution is still controlled by extrinsic processes that generate the geomorphic zonation; second, that coral biodiversity still reflects species zonation patterns reported by early studies; and third that dominance of pioneer species implies that modern coral assemblages are in a prolonged post-disturbance adjustment stage. In conclusion, any accurate assessment of the future viability of reefs requires a consideration of the geomorphic context or risks miscalculating the impact of ecological changes on long-term reef development.

Coral composition and bottom-wave metrics improve understanding of the patchiness of cyclone damage on reefs

Coral reefs are likely to be exposed to more intense cyclones under climate change. Cyclone impacts are spatially highly variable given complex hydrodynamics, and coral-specific sensitivity to wave impacts. Predicting reef vulnerability to cyclones is critical to management but requires high resolution environmental data that are difficult to obtain over broad spatial scales. Using 30m-resolution wave modelling, we tested cyclonic and non-cyclonic wave metrics as predictors of coral damage on 22 reefs after severe cyclone Ita impacted the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia in 2014. Analyses of coral cover change accounting for the type of coral along a gradient of vulnerability to wave damage (e.g., massive, branching, Acroporids) excluded cyclone-generated surface wave metrics (derived from wave height) as important predictors. Increased bottom stress wave environment (near-bed wave orbital velocity) due to Ita (Ita-U_b) explained spatial patterns of 17% to 46% total coral cover loss only when the initial abundance of Acroporids was accounted for, and only when exceeding 35% cover. Greater coral losses occurred closer to the cyclone path irrespective of coral type. Massive and encrusting corals, however, had losses exacerbated in higher non-cyclonic bottom-wave energy environments (nc-U_b). The effect of community composition on structural vulnerability to wave damage was more important predicting damage that the magnitude of the cyclone-generated waves, especially when reefs are surveyed well beyond where damaging waves are expected to occur. Exposure to Ita-U_b was greater in typically high nc-U_b environments with relatively low cover of the most fragile morphologies explaining why these were the least affected overall. We reveal that the common surface-wave metrics of cyclone intensity may not always be able to predict spatial impacts and conclude that reef vulnerability assessments need to account for chronic wave patterns and differences in community composition in order to provide predictive tools for future conservation and restoration.

Spatial patchiness in change, recruitment, and recovery on coral reefs at Lizard Island following consecutive bleaching events

The world's coral reef ecosystems are steadily being reconfigured by climate change. Lizard Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, offers an opportunity to examine coral reef reassembly following disturbance, as this location has been impacted by consecutive tropical cyclones and consecutive coral bleaching events. Based on repeatedly monitoring the same 349 photoquadrats around Lizard Island over a 5-year period (2016-2021) we revealed that bleaching in 2016 drove a ∼50% reduction in hard coral cover, and a concomitant increase in algal turf cover. From 2018 to 2021, significant increases (>600%) in coral cover were detected on two semi-exposed reefs and were associated with substantial Acropora recruitment. By contrast, fourteen lagoonal and back reefs exhibited virtually no recovery nor Acropora recruitment. Given that the timeframe between disturbances is set to decrease, our results suggest that some recovery is possible immediately after severe cumulative disturbances, although this recovery may be highly spatially heterogenous.

Impacts of heat stress and storm events on the benthic communities of Kenting National Park (Taiwan)

Over the past few decades, extreme events—such as ocean warming, typhoons, and coral bleaching—have been increasing in intensity and frequency, threatening coral reefs from the physiological to ecosystem level. In the present study, the impacts of rising seawater temperatures, typhoons, and coral bleaching events on benthic communities were seasonally assessed over a 21 month-period, using photo-transects at 11 sites in Kenting National Park (KNP), Taiwan. Between August 2015 and April 2017, seven typhoon events were recorded and in situ seawater temperatures in KNP reached a maximum of 31.2 °C, as opposed to an average maximum SST of 28.8 °C (2007–2016). The state and response of benthic communities to these events were interpreted based on the environmental conditions of KNP. The repeated storms lowered the levels of thermal stress during the 2015–2016 El Niño event and may have mitigated its impact on the Taiwanese coral reefs. However, storm-induced local shifts from coral to macro-algae dominance were observed. Storms may mitigate the negative effects of heatwaves, but the mechanical damage induced by the storms may also decrease the structural complexity of reefs and their associated diversity. Eventually, despite reef persistence, the composition and function of remnant communities may profoundly diverge from those in regions with less active storms.

Isolated reefs support stable fish communities with high abundances of regionally fished species

Anthropogenic impacts at isolated and inaccessible reefs are often minimal, offering rare opportunities to observe fish assemblages in a relatively undisturbed state. The remote Rowley Shoals are regarded as one of the healthiest reef systems in the Indian Ocean with demonstrated resilience to natural disturbance, no permanent human population nearby, low visitation rates, and large protected areas where fishing prohibitions are enforced. We used baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) to quantify fish assemblages and the relative abundance of regionally fished species within the lagoon, on the slope and in the mesophotic habitat at the Rowley Shoals at three times spanning 14 years and compared abundances of regionally fished species and the length distributions of predatory species to other isolated reefs in the northeast Indian Ocean. Fish assemblage composition and the relative abundance of regionally fished species were remarkably stable through time. We recorded high abundances of regionally fished species relative to other isolated reefs, including globally threatened humphead Maori wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus) and bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum). Length distributions of fish differed among habitats at the Rowley Shoals, suggesting differences in ontogenetic shifts among species. The Cocos (Keeling) Islands typically had larger-bodied predatory species than at the Rowley Shoals. Differences in geomorphology, lagoonal habitats, and fishing history likely contribute to the differences among remote reefs. Rowley Shoals is a rare example of a reef system demonstrating ecological stability in reef fish assemblages during a time of unprecedented degradation of coral reefs.