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Ozsanlav‐Harris L, Hilton GM, Griffin LR, Walsh AJ, Cao L, Weegman MD, Bearhop S. Differing drivers of decline within a migratory metapopulation has implications for future conservation. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10281. [PMID: 37456071 PMCID: PMC10347676 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 05/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single sub-population and presume they are representative. With this information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental variation. The Greenland White-fronted Goose, Anser albifrons flavirostris, is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of productivity in both sub-populations using population- and individual-level analysis. We examined how temperature and precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success over 37 years and whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation decline commenced. In addition, we used biologging devices to remotely classify incubation events for 86 bird-years and modelled how phenology and environmental conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. Correlations between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears to be driven by lower nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive success is driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for different sub-populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke Ozsanlav‐Harris
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterPenrynUK
- Wildfowl & Wetlands TrustGloucesterUK
| | | | | | - Alyn J. Walsh
- National Parks and Wildlife ServiceWexford Wildfowl ReserveNorth SlobIreland
| | - Lei Cao
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Centre for Eco‐Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Mitch D. Weegman
- Department of BiologyUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonSaskatchewanCanada
| | - Stuart Bearhop
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterPenrynUK
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Brlík V, Pakanen VM, Jaakkonen T, Arppe H, Jokinen J, Lakka J, Blomqvist D, Hahn S, Valkama J, Koivula K. Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19830. [PMID: 36400908 PMCID: PMC9674593 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24141-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vojtěch Brlík
- grid.4491.80000 0004 1937 116XDepartment of Ecology, Charles University, Viničná 7, 12844 Prague, Czech Republic ,grid.448077.80000 0000 9663 9052Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Květná 8, 60365 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Veli-Matti Pakanen
- grid.10858.340000 0001 0941 4873Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014 Oulu, Finland ,grid.8761.80000 0000 9919 9582Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Tuomo Jaakkonen
- grid.10858.340000 0001 0941 4873Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014 Oulu, Finland ,grid.444812.f0000 0004 5936 4802Vietnam-Finland International School, Ton Duc Thang University, 01, D1 Street, District 7, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Jaakko Jokinen
- grid.10858.340000 0001 0941 4873Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
| | - Johanna Lakka
- grid.9668.10000 0001 0726 2490School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box-111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
| | - Donald Blomqvist
- grid.8761.80000 0000 9919 9582Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 463, 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Steffen Hahn
- grid.419767.a0000 0001 1512 3677Department of Bird Migration, Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Jari Valkama
- grid.7737.40000 0004 0410 2071Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 17, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kari Koivula
- grid.10858.340000 0001 0941 4873Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
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Zylstra ER, Neupane N, Zipkin EF. Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6135-6151. [PMID: 35983755 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 07/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected changes in breeding-season climate are likely to lead to decreases in monarch abundance, with high potential for overwintering population size to fall below the historical minimum three or more times in the next two decades. Climatic changes across the expansive summer breeding grounds will also cause shifts in the distribution of monarchs, with higher projected abundances in areas that become wetter but not appreciably hotter (e.g., northern Ohio) and declines in abundance where summer temperatures are projected to increase well above those observed in the recent past (e.g., northern Minnesota). Although climate uncertainties dominate long-term population forecasts, our analyses suggest that we can improve precision of near-term forecasts by collecting targeted data to better understand relationships between breeding-season climate variables and local monarch abundance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impacts of climate changes throughout the full-annual cycle of migratory species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin R Zylstra
- Department of Integrative Biology, Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
- Tucson Audubon Society, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Naresh Neupane
- Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Elise F Zipkin
- Department of Integrative Biology, Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
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McCrystall MR, Stroeve J, Serreze M, Forbes BC, Screen JA. New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected. Nat Commun 2021; 12:6765. [PMID: 34848697 PMCID: PMC8633026 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle R McCrystall
- Canada 150 Research Chairs Program, Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
| | - Julienne Stroeve
- Canada 150 Research Chairs Program, Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London, UK
- National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Mark Serreze
- National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Bruce C Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - James A Screen
- College of Engineering, Maths, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Neate-Clegg MHC, Stanley TR, Şekercioğlu ÇH, Newmark WD. Temperature-associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:2254-2268. [PMID: 33687129 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Revised: 01/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark-recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one-half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top-ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller-bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature-associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Thomas R Stanley
- Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Çağan H Şekercioğlu
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Faculty of Sciences, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - William D Newmark
- Natural History Museum of Utah, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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