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Wu Z, Fu YH, Crowther TW, Wang S, Gong Y, Zhang J, Zhao YP, Janssens I, Penuelas J, Zohner CM. Poleward shifts in the maximum of spring phenological responsiveness of Ginkgo biloba to temperature in China. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2023; 240:1421-1432. [PMID: 37632265 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 08/05/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023]
Abstract
Global warming is advancing the timing of spring leaf-out in temperate and boreal plants, affecting biological interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. However, spatial variation in spring phenological responsiveness to climate change within species remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated variation in the responsiveness of spring phenology to temperature (RSP; days to leaf-out at a given temperature) in 2754 Ginkgo biloba twigs of trees distributed across subtropical and temperate regions in China from 24°N to 44°N. We found a nonlinear effect of mean annual temperature on spatial variation in RSP, with the highest response rate at c. 12°C and lower response rates at warmer or colder temperatures due to declines in winter chilling accumulation. We then predicted the spatial maxima in RSP under current and future climate scenarios, and found that trees are currently most responsive in central China, which corresponds to the species' main distribution area. Under a high-emission scenario, we predict a 4-degree latitude shift in the responsiveness maximum toward higher latitudes over the rest of the century. The identification of the nonlinear responsiveness of spring phenology to climate gradients and the spatial shifts in phenological responsiveness expected under climate change represent new mechanistic insights that can inform models of spring phenology and ecosystem functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaofei Wu
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Yongshuo H Fu
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Thomas W Crowther
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Shuxin Wang
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Yufeng Gong
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Jing Zhang
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Yun-Peng Zhao
- Systematic & Evolutionary Botany and Biodiversity Group, MOE Key Laboratory of Biosystem Homeostasis and Protection, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Ivan Janssens
- Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, B-2610, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Josep Penuelas
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, 08193, Catalonia, Spain
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra, Barcelona, 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Constantin M Zohner
- Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
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Wang Z, Li R, Guo Q, Wang Z, Huang M, Cai C, Chen B. Learning ensembles of process-based models for high accurately evaluating the one-hundred-year carbon sink potential of China's forest ecosystem. Heliyon 2023; 9:e17243. [PMID: 37441384 PMCID: PMC10333463 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
China's forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle through the absorption of atmospheric CO2 to mitigate climate change caused by the increase of anthropogenic CO2. It is essential to evaluate the carbon sink potential (CSP) of China's forest ecosystem. Combining NDVI, field-investigated, and vegetation and soil carbon density data modeled by process-based models, we developed the state-of-the-art learning ensembles model of process-based models (the multi-model random forest ensemble (MMRFE) model) to evaluate the carbon stocks of China's forest ecosystem in historical (1982-2021) and future (2022-2081, without NDVI-driven data) periods. Meanwhile, we proposed a new carbon sink index (CSindex) to scientifically and accurately evaluate carbon sink status and identify carbon sink intensity zones, reducing the probability of random misjudgments as a carbon sink. The new MMRFE models showed good simulation results in simulating forest vegetation and soil carbon density in China (significant positive correlation with the observed values, r = 0.94, P < 0.001). The modeled results show that a cumulative increase of 1.33 Pg C in historical carbon stocks of forest ecosystem is equivalent to 48.62 Bt CO2, which is approximately 52.03% of the cumulative increased CO2 emissions in China from 1959 to 2018. In the next 60 years, China's forest ecosystem will absorb annually 1.69 (RCP45 scenario) to 1.85 (RCP85 scenario) Bt CO2. Compared with the carbon stock in the historical period, the cumulative absorption of CO2 by China's forest ecosystem in 2032-2036, 2062-2066, and 2077-2081 are approximately 11.25-39.68, 110.66-121.49 and 101.31-111.11 Bt CO2, respectively. In historical and future periods, the medium and strong carbon sink intensity regions identified by the historical CSindex covered 65% of the total forest area, cumulative absorbing approximately 31.60 and 65.83-72.22 Bt CO2, respectively. In the future, China's forest ecosystem has a large CSP with a non-continuous increasing trend. However, the CSP should not be underestimated. Notably, the medium carbon sink intensity region should be the priority for natural carbon sequestration action. This study not only provides an important methodological basis for accurately estimating the future CSP of forest ecosystem but also provides important decision support for future forest ecosystem carbon sequestration action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaosheng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, National Data Center for Ecological Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
| | - Renqaing Li
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, National Data Center for Ecological Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
| | - Qingchun Guo
- School of Geography and Environment, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China
| | - Zhaojun Wang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Mei Huang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, National Data Center for Ecological Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
| | - Changjun Cai
- Gansu Wuwei Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center, Wuwei City, Gansu Province, 733000, China
| | - Bin Chen
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, National Data Center for Ecological Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China
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Cheng F, Tian J, He J, He H, Liu G, Zhang Z, Zhou L. The spatial and temporal distribution of China’s forest carbon. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.1110594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2023] Open
Abstract
IntroductionChina’s forests have sequestrated a significant amount of carbon over the past two decades. However, it is not clear whether China’s forests will be able to continue to have as much carbon sequestration potential capacity in the future.MethodsIn order to research China’s forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential capacities at spatial and temporal scales, we built a digital forest model for each province of China using the data from The China Forest Resources Report (2014– 2018) and calculated the carbon storage capacity and sequestration potential capacity of each province with the current management practices without considering natural successions.ResultsThe results showed that the current forest carbon storage is 10.0 Pg C, and the carbon sequestration potential in the next 40 years (from year 2019 to 2058) will be 5.04 Pg C. Since immature forests account for the majority of current forests, the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest was also high (0.202 Pg C year−1). However, the forest carbon storage reached the maximum with the increase of stand maturity. At this time, if scenarios such as afforestation and reforestation, human and natural disturbances, and natural succession are not considered, the carbon sequestration capacity of forests will continue to decrease. After 90 years, all stands will develop into mature and over-mature forests, and the forest carbon sequestration capacity is 0.008 Pg year−1; and the carbon sequestration rate is ~4% of what it is nowadays. The change trend of forest carbon in each province is consistent with that of the country. In addition, considering the large forest coverage area in China, the differences in tree species and growing conditions, the forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacities among provinces were different. The growth rate of carbon density in high-latitude provinces (such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia) was lower than that in the south (Guangdong, Guangxi, or Hunan), but the forest carbon potential was higher.DiscussionPlanning and implementing targeted forest management strategies is the key to increasing forest carbon storage and extending the service time of forest carbon sinks in provinces. In order to reach the national carbon neutrality goals, we recommend that each province have an informative strategic forest management plan.
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Estimation and Simulation of Forest Carbon Stock in Northeast China Forestry Based on Future Climate Change and LUCC. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14153653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Forest carbon sinks (FCS) play an important role in mitigating global climate change, but there is a lack of more accurate, comprehensive, and efficient forest carbon stock estimates and projections for larger regions. By combining 1980–2020 land use data from the Northeast China Forestry (NCF) and climate change data under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), the land use and cover change (LUCC) of NCF in 2030 and 2050 and the FCS of NCF were estimated based on the measured data of forest carbon density. In general, the forest area of NCF has not yet recovered to the level of 1980. The temporal change in the FCS experienced a U-shaped trend of sharp decline to slow increase, with the inflection point occurring in 2010. If strict ecological conservation measures are implemented, the FCS of the NCF is expected to recover to the 1980 levels by 2050. We believe that the ecological priority (EP) scenario is the most likely and suitable direction for future development of the NCF. We also advocate for more scientific and stringent management measures for NCF natural forests to unlock the huge potential for forest carbon sequestration, which is important for China to meet its carbon neutrality commitments.
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He J, Fan C, Geng Y, Zhang C, Zhao X, von Gadow K. Assessing scale-dependent effects on Forest biomass productivity based on machine learning. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9110. [PMID: 35845366 PMCID: PMC9277413 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2022] [Revised: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Estimating forest above‐ground biomass (AGB) productivity constitutes one of the most fundamental topics in forest ecological research. Based on a 30‐ha permanent field plot in Northeastern China, we modeled AGB productivity as output, and topography, species diversity, stand structure, and a stand density variable as input across a series of area scales using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. As the grain size increased from 10 to 200 m, we found that the relative importance of explanatory variables that drove the variation of biomass productivity varied a lot, and the model accuracy was gradually improved. The minimum sampling area for biomass productivity modeling in this region was 140 × 140 m. Our study shows that the relationship of topography, species diversity, stand structure, and stand density variables with biomass productivity modeled using the RF algorithm changes when moving from scales typical of forest surveys (10 m) to larger scales (200 m) within a controlled methodology. These results should be of considerable interest to scientists concerned with forest assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingyuan He
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Chunyu Fan
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Yan Geng
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Chunyu Zhang
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Xiuhai Zhao
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China
| | - Klaus von Gadow
- Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China.,Faculty of Forestry and Forest Ecology Georg-August-University Göttingen Germany.,Department of Forest and Wood Science University of Stellenbosch Matieland South Africa
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Wang Z, Gong H, Huang M, Gu F, Wei J, Guo Q, Song W. A multimodel random forest ensemble method for an improved assessment of Chinese terrestrial vegetation carbon density. Methods Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Zhaosheng Wang
- National Ecosystem Science Data Center Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - He Gong
- National Ecosystem Science Data Center Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Mei Huang
- National Ecosystem Science Data Center Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Fengxue Gu
- Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing China
| | - Jie Wei
- National Ecosystem Science Data Center Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Qingchun Guo
- School of Environment and Planning Liaocheng University Liaocheng China
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