Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

The interaction between warming and enrichment accelerates food-web simplification in freshwater systems

Nutrient enrichment and climate warming threaten freshwater systems. Metabolic theory and the paradox of enrichment predict that both stressors independently can lead to simpler food-webs having fewer nodes, shorter food-chains and lower connectance, but cancel each other's effects when simultaneously present. Yet, these theoretical predictions remain untested in complex natural systems. We inferred the food-web structure of 256 lakes and 373 streams from standardized fish community samplings in France. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that warming shortens fish food-chain length and that this effect was magnified in enriched streams and lakes. Additionally, lakes experiencing enrichment exhibit lower connectance in their fish food-webs. Our study suggests that warming and enrichment interact to magnify food-web simplification in nature, raising further concerns about the fate of freshwater systems as climate change effects will dramatically increase in the coming decades.

A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Metabolic plasticity drives mismatches in physiological traits between prey and predator

Metabolic rate, the rate of energy use, underpins key ecological traits of organisms, from development and locomotion to interaction rates between individuals. In a warming world, the temperature-dependence of metabolic rate is anticipated to shift predator-prey dynamics. Yet, there is little real-world evidence on the effects of warming on trophic interactions. We measured the respiration rates of aquatic larvae of three insect species from populations experiencing a natural temperature gradient in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Using a mechanistic model we predicted the effects of warming on these taxa's predator-prey interaction rates. We found that species-specific differences in metabolic plasticity lead to mismatches in the temperature-dependence of their relative velocities, resulting in altered predator-prey interaction rates. This study underscores the role of metabolic plasticity at the species level in modifying trophic interactions and proposes a mechanistic modelling approach that allows an efficient, high-throughput estimation of climate change threats across species pairs.

Thermal performance of ecosystems: Modeling how physiological responses to temperature scale up in communities

Understanding how ecosystems respond to their environmental temperature is a major challenge. Thermodynamic constraints on species' metabolic rates are expected to affect ecosystem characteristics, but species interactions and interspecific variation in physiological thermal response curves (TRC) may obscure ecosystem-level responses to temperature. As a result, macroecological patterns related to temperature are still poorly understood. We investigate how physiological TRC scale up to ecosystem-level thermal responses by modifying the Tangled Nature (TaNa) model, a stochastic network model of ecology and evolution. We include new parameterizations that make reproduction, death, and mutation temperature-dependent. We find that ecosystem survival probability depends on how the minimum fitness required for species survival varies with temperature. The thermal response of ecosystem survival probability is the only ecosystem property that is sensitive to interspecific variation in TRC. Species richness scales up directly from the TRC of mutation rate, and average species population sizes are inversely related to mutation rate, with Species Abundance Distributions (SADs) exhibiting more rare species in warmer temperatures. Interactions between species are also inversely related to mutation, with positive interactions occurring more frequently in colder temperatures. The abundance of surviving ecosystems is not sensitive to temperature. This work helps clarify the specific relationships between physiological responses to temperature and ecosystem-level repercussions when species are interacting and adapting to their thermal environments.

Hotter is not (always) better: Embracing unimodal scaling of biological rates with temperature

Rate-temperature scaling relationships have fascinated biologists for nearly two centuries and are increasingly important in our era of global climate change. These relationships are hypothesized to originate from the temperature-dependent kinetics of rate-limiting biochemical reactions of metabolism. Several prominent theories have formalized this hypothesis using the Arrhenius model, which characterizes a monotonic temperature dependence using an activation energy E. However, the ubiquitous unimodal nature of biological temperature responses presents important theoretical, methodological, and conceptual challenges that restrict the promise for insight, prediction, and progress. Here we review the development of key hypotheses and methods for the temperature-scaling of biological rates. Using simulations, we examine the constraints of monotonic models, illustrating their sensitivity to data nuances such as temperature range and noise, and their tendency to yield variable and underestimated E, with critical consequences for climate change predictions. We also evaluate the behaviour of two prominent unimodal models when applied to incomplete and noisy datasets. We conclude with recommendations for resolving these challenges in future research, and advocate for a shift to unimodal models that better characterize the full range of biological temperature responses.

Temperature and predators as interactive drivers of community properties

The effects of warming on ecological communities emerge from a range of potentially asymmetric impacts on individual physiology and development. Understanding these responses, however, is limited by our ability to connect mechanisms or emergent patterns across the many processes that drive variation in demography. Further complicating this understanding is the gain or loss of predators to many communities, which may interact with changes in temperature to drive community change. Here we conducted a factorial warming and predation experiment to test generalized predictions about responses to warming. We used microcosms with a range of protists, rotifers, and a gastrotrich, with and without the predator Actinosphaerium, to assess changes in diversity, body size, function, and composition in response to warming. We find that community respiration and predator:prey biovolume ratios peak at intermediate temperatures, while species richness declined with temperature. We also found that overall biomass increased with species richness, driven by the effect of temperature on richness. There was little evidence of an interaction between predation and temperature change, likely because the predator was mostly limited to the intermediate temperatures. Overall, our results suggest that general predictions about community change are still challenging to make but may benefit by considering multiple dimensions of community patterns in an integrated way.

Mutualisms in a warming world

Predicting the impacts of global warming on mutualisms poses a significant challenge given the functional and life history differences that usually exist among interacting species. However, this is a critical endeavour since virtually all species on Earth depend on other species for survival and/or reproduction. The field of thermal ecology can provide physiological and mechanistic insights, as well as quantitative tools, for addressing this challenge. Here, we develop a conceptual and quantitative framework that connects thermal physiology to species' traits, species' traits to interacting mutualists' traits and interacting traits to the mutualism. We first identify the functioning of reciprocal mutualism-relevant traits in diverse systems as the key temperature-dependent mechanisms driving the interaction. We then develop metrics that measure the thermal performance of interacting mutualists' traits and that approximate the thermal performance of the mutualism itself. This integrated approach allows us to additionally examine how warming might interact with resource/nutrient availability and affect mutualistic species' associations across space and time. We offer this framework as a synthesis of convergent and critical issues in mutualism science in a changing world, and as a baseline to which other ecological complexities and scales might be added.

Mismatches in thermal performance between ectothermic predators and prey alter interaction strength and top-down control

Climate change can alter predator-prey interactions when predators and prey have different thermal preferences as temperature change can exacerbate thermal mismatches (also called thermal asymmetry) with population-level consequences. We tested this using micro-arthropod predators (Stratiolaelaps scimitus) and prey (Folsomia candida) that differ in their temperature optima to examine predator-prey interactions across two temperature ranges, a cool (12 and 20 °C) and warm (20 and 26 °C) range. We predict that the lower thermal preference and optimum in F. candida will alter top-down control (i.e., interaction strength) by predators with interaction strength being strongest at intermediate temperatures, coinciding with F. candida thermal optimum. Predators and prey were placed in mesocosms, whereafter we measured population (predator and prey abundance), trait-based (average predator and prey body mass, and prey body length distribution), and predator-prey indices (predator-prey mass ratio (PPMR), Dynamic Index, and Log Response Ratio) to determine how temperature affected their interactions. Prey populations were the highest at intermediate temperatures (average temperature exposure: 16-23 °C) but declined at warmer temperatures (average temperature exposure: 24.5-26 °C). Predators consistently lowered prey abundances and average prey mass increased when predators were added. Top-down control was the greatest at intermediate temperatures (indicated by Log Response Ratio) when temperatures were near or below the thermal optimum for both species. Temperature-related prey declines negated top-down control under the warmest conditions suggesting that mismatches in thermal performance between predators and their prey will alter the strength and dominance of top-down or bottom-up forces of predator-prey interactions in a warmer world.

Energetic mismatch induced by warming decreases leaf litter decomposition by aquatic detritivores

1. The balance of energetic losses and gains is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the persistence of populations and ecosystem processes in a rapidly changing world. Previous studies suggested that metabolic rate often increases faster with warming than resource ingestion rate, leading to an energetic mismatch at high temperature. However, little is known about the ecological consequences of this energetic mismatch for population demography and ecosystem functions. 2. Here, we combined laboratory experiments and modeling to investigate the energetic balance of a stream detritivore (Gammarus fossarum) along a temperature gradient and the consequences for detritivore populations and organic matter decomposition. 3. We experimentally measured the energetic losses (metabolic rate) and supplies (ingestion rate) of Gammarus and we modeled the impact of rising temperatures and changes in Gammarus body size induced by warming on population dynamics and benthic organic matter dynamics in freshwater systems. 4. Our experimental results indicated an energetic mismatch in a Gammarus population where losses via metabolic rate increase faster than supplies via food ingestion with warming, which translated in a decrease of energetic efficiency with temperature rising from 5 to 20 °C. Moreover, our consumer-resource model predicts a decrease in the biomass of Gammarus population with warming, associated with lower maximum abundances and steeper abundance decreases after biomass annual peaks. These changes resulted in a decrease of leaf litter decomposition rate and thus longer persistence of leaf litter standing stock over years in the simulations. In addition, Gammarus body size reductions led to shorter persistence for both leaf litter and Gammarus biomasses at low temperature and the opposite trend at high temperature, revealing that body size reduction was weakening the effect of temperature on resource and consumer persistence. 5. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how thermal effects at the level of individuals may cascade through trophic interactions and influence important ecosystem processes. Considering the balance of physiological processes is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impact of climate change on carbon stocks and ecosystem functions.

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

The ocean is warming, losing oxygen and being acidified, primarily as a result of anthropogenic carbon emissions. With ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation projected to increase for decades, extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, will intensify, occur more often, persist for longer periods of time and extend over larger regions. Nevertheless, our understanding of oceanic extreme events that are associated with warming, low oxygen concentrations or high acidity, as well as their impacts on marine ecosystems, remains limited. Compound events-that is, multiple extreme events that occur simultaneously or in close sequence-are of particular concern, as their individual effects may interact synergistically. Here we assess patterns and trends in open ocean extremes based on the existing literature as well as global and regional model simulations. Furthermore, we discuss the potential impacts of individual and compound extremes on marine organisms and ecosystems. We propose a pathway to improve the understanding of extreme events and the capacity of marine life to respond to them. The conditions exhibited by present extreme events may be a harbinger of what may become normal in the future. As a consequence, pursuing this research effort may also help us to better understand the responses of marine organisms and ecosystems to future climate change.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.