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Thom D, Rammer W, Albrich K, Braziunas KH, Dobor L, Dollinger C, Hansen WD, Harvey BJ, Hlásny T, Hoecker TJ, Honkaniemi J, Keeton WS, Kobayashi Y, Kruszka SS, Mori A, Morris JE, Peters-Collaer S, Ratajczak Z, Simensen T, Storms I, Suzuki KF, Taylor AR, Turner MG, Willis S, Seidl R. Parameters of 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances for an individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model. Data Brief 2024; 55:110662. [PMID: 39234067 PMCID: PMC11372383 DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2024.110662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2024] [Revised: 06/10/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 09/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding the impacts of changing climate and disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems is greatly aided by the use of process-based models. Such models simulate processes based on first principles of ecology, which requires parameterization. Parameterization is an important step in model development and application, defining the characteristics of trees and their responses to the environment, i.e., their traits. For species-specific models, parameterization is usually done at the level of individual species. Parameterization is indispensable for accurately modeling demographic processes, including growth, mortality, and regeneration of trees, along with their intra- and inter-specific interactions. As it is time-demanding to compile the parameters required to simulate forest ecosystems in complex models, simulations are often restricted to the most common tree species, genera, or plant-functional types. Yet, as tree species composition might change in the future, it is important to account for a broad range of species and their individual responses to drivers of change explicitly in simulations. Thus, species-specific parameterization is a critical task for making accurate projections about future forest trajectories, yet species parameters often remain poorly documented in simulation studies. We compiled and harmonized all existing tree species parameters available for the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Since its first publication in 2012, iLand has been applied in 50 peer-reviewed publications across three continents throughout the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., Europe, North America, and Asia). The model operates at individual-tree level and simulates ecosystem processes at multiple spatial scales, making it a capable process-based model for studying forest change. However, the extensive number of processes and their interactions as well as the wide range of spatio-temporal scales considered in iLand require intensive parameterization, with tree species characterized by 66 unique parameters in the model. The database presented here includes parameters for 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances (i.e., regional variations). Excluding missing values, the database includes a total of 9,249 individual parameter entries. In addition, we provide parameters for the individual susceptibility of tree species to wind disturbance (five parameters) for a subset of 104 tree species and provenances (498 parameter entries). To guide further model parameterization efforts, we provide an estimate of uncertainty for each species based on how thoroughly simulations with the respective parameters were evaluated against independent data. Our dataset aids the future parameterization and application of iLand, and sets a new standard in documenting parameters used in process-based forest simulations. This dataset will support model application in previously unstudied areas and can facilitate the investigation of new tree species being introduced to well-studied systems (e.g., simulating assisted migration in the context of rapid climate change). Given that many process-based models rely on similar underlying processes our harmonized parameter set will be of relevance beyond the iLand community. Our work could catalyze further research into improving the parameterization of process-based forest models, increasing the robustness of projections of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans‑Carl‑Von‑Carlowitz‑Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans‑Carl‑Von‑Carlowitz‑Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Natural Resources Institute Finland Luke, Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kristin H Braziunas
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans‑Carl‑Von‑Carlowitz‑Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Christina Dollinger
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans‑Carl‑Von‑Carlowitz‑Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12578, USA
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, 3715W Stevens Way NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | | | - Juha Honkaniemi
- Natural Resources Institute Finland Luke, Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - William S Keeton
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
| | - Yuta Kobayashi
- Field Science Center, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8, Saiwai-tyo, Fuchu, Tokyo, 183-8509, Japan
| | - Sofia Saenz Kruszka
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, 3715W Stevens Way NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Akira Mori
- Field Science Center, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8, Saiwai-tyo, Fuchu, Tokyo, 183-8509, Japan
| | - Jenna E Morris
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, 3715W Stevens Way NE, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Stephen Peters-Collaer
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Trond Simensen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Torgarden, P.O. 5685, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Ilié Storms
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven; Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
- KU Leuven Plant Institute, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
| | - Kureha F Suzuki
- Field Science Center, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8, Saiwai-tyo, Fuchu, Tokyo, 183-8509, Japan
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan
| | - Anthony R Taylor
- University of New Brunswick, Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, 28 Dineen Dr, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Susan Willis
- University of New Brunswick, Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, 28 Dineen Dr, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans‑Carl‑Von‑Carlowitz‑Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Doktorberg 6, 83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
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Siegel KJ, Cavanaugh KC, Dee LE. Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:381-395. [PMID: 38052686 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.11.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine J Siegel
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
| | - Kyle C Cavanaugh
- Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Laura E Dee
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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3
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Dobor L, Baldo M, Bílek L, Barka I, Máliš F, Štěpánek P, Hlásny T. The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17194. [PMID: 38385958 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Marco Baldo
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Lukáš Bílek
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - František Máliš
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
- Faculty of Forestry, Technical University Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
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Hird C, Cramp RL, Franklin CE. Thermal compensation reduces DNA damage from UV radiation. J Therm Biol 2023; 117:103711. [PMID: 37717403 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
Increases in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) correlate spatially and temporally with global amphibian population declines and interact with other stressors such as disease and temperature. Declines have largely occurred in high-altitude areas associated with greater UVR and cooler temperatures. UVR is a powerful mutagenic harming organisms largely by damaging DNA. When acutely exposed to UVR at cool temperatures, amphibian larvae have increased levels of DNA damage. Amphibians may compensate for the depressive effects of temperature on DNA damage through acclimatisation, but it is unknown whether they have this capacity. We reared striped marsh frog larvae (Limnodynastes peronii) in warm (25 °C) and cool (15 °C) temperatures under a low or moderate daily dose of UVR (10 and 40 μW cm-2 UV-B for 1 h at midday, respectively) for 18-20 days and then measured DNA damage resulting from an acute high UVR dose (80 μW cm-2 UV-B for 1.5 h) at a range of temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C). Larvae acclimated to 15 °C and exposed to UVR at 15 °C completely compensated UVR-induced DNA damage compared with 25 °C acclimated larvae exposed to UVR at 25 °C. Additionally, warm-acclimated larvae had higher DNA damage than cold-acclimated larvae across test temperatures, which indicated a cost of living in warmer temperatures. Larvae reared under elevated UVR levels showed no evidence of UVR acclimation resulting in lower DNA damage following high UVR exposure. Our finding that thermal acclimation in L. peronii larvae compensated UVR-induced DNA damage at low temperatures suggested that aquatic ectotherms living in cool temperatures may be more resilient to high UVR than previously realised. We suggested individuals or species with less capacity for thermal acclimation of DNA repair mechanisms may be more at risk if exposed to changing thermal and UVR exposure regimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Coen Hird
- School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Magandjin, 4072, Australia.
| | - Rebecca L Cramp
- School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Magandjin, 4072, Australia
| | - Craig E Franklin
- School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Magandjin, 4072, Australia
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Barnes PW, Robson TM, Zepp RG, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Ossola R, Wang QW, Robinson SA, Foereid B, Klekociuk AR, Martinez-Abaigar J, Hou WC, Mackenzie R, Paul ND. Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2023; 22:1049-1091. [PMID: 36723799 PMCID: PMC9889965 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-023-00376-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.
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Affiliation(s)
- P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University New Orleans, New Orleans, USA.
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal & Evolutionary Biology (OEB), Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Viikki Plant Sciences Centre (ViPS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
- National School of Forestry, University of Cumbria, Ambleside, UK.
| | - R G Zepp
- ORD/CEMM, US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia
| | | | - R Ossola
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Q-W Wang
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang, China
| | - S A Robinson
- Global Challenges Program & School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - B Foereid
- Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
| | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J Martinez-Abaigar
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of La Rioja, Logroño (La Rioja), Spain
| | - W-C Hou
- Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
| | - R Mackenzie
- Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Puerto Williams, Chile
- Millennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Santiago, Chile
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
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6
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Falk MT, Hagsten E. Threat Perception and Adaptive Capacity of Natural World Heritage Site Management. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 71:285-303. [PMID: 36639605 PMCID: PMC9892164 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-022-01780-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This study offers new insights into the largest threats to natural and mixed World Heritage sites in developed countries as considered by their management. In addition to this, the capacity of the management to deal with threats is examined. An Ordered Probit model is used that distinguishes three groups of threats and four categories of adaptive capacity of the management. Data originate from the 2014 UNESCO Periodic Report II for sites in economically advanced countries (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea) linked to the World Heritage Site database. Estimation results reveal that the probability of a major threat to World Heritage sites is perceived to be highest in the category of climate change and extreme weather events, followed by local conditions affecting the physical structure (temperature, rain, dust). Sites in tropical climates are perceived as significantly more threatened, as are those earlier listed as in danger. The likelihood of perceiving a major threat is highest in Turkey, Italy, Norway and North America. Threats related to climate change are those the management has the lowest capacity to deal with when other important aspects are controlled for. Large and natural areas have a higher perceived administrative capacity to deal with threats than others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Thomas Falk
- School of Business, Department of Business and IT, University of South-Eastern Norway, Campus Bø, Gullbringvegen 36, 3800, Bø, Norway
| | - Eva Hagsten
- School of Business, Department of Business and IT, University of South-Eastern Norway, Campus Bø, Gullbringvegen 36, 3800, Bø, Norway.
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Frank DA, Becklin KM, Penner JF, Lindsay KA, Geremia CJ. Feast or famine: How is global change affecting forage supply for Yellowstone's ungulate herds? ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2735. [PMID: 36057540 PMCID: PMC10078388 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2022] [Revised: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The ecological integrity of US national parks and other protected areas are under threat in the Anthropocene. For Yellowstone National Park (YNP), the impacts that global change has already had on the park's capacity to sustain its large migratory herds of wild ungulates is incompletely understood. Here we examine how two understudied components of global change, the historical increase in atmospheric CO2 and the spread of nonnative, invasive plant species, may have altered the capacity of YNP to provide forage for ungulates over the last 200-plus years. We performed two experiments: (1) a growth chamber study that determined the growth rates of important invasive and native YNP grasses that are forages for ungulates under preindustrial (280 ppm) versus modern (410 ppm) CO2 levels and (2) a field study that compared the effect of defoliation (clipping) on the shoot growth of invasive and native mesic grassland plants under ambient CO2 conditions in 2019. The growth chamber experiment revealed that modern CO2 increased the growth rates of both invasive and native grasses, and invasive grasses grew faster regardless of CO2 conditions. The field results showed a continuum of positive to negative responses of shoot growth to defoliation, with a subgroup of invasive species responding most positively. Altogether the results indicated that the historical increase in CO2 and the spread of invasive species, some of which were planted to provide forage for ungulates in the early and mid-1900s, have likely increased the capacity of forage production in YNP. However, rising CO2 has also resulted in regional warming and increased aridity in YNP, which will likely reduce grassland productivity. The challenge for global change biologists and park managers is to determine how competing components of global change have already affected and will increasingly affect forage dynamics and the sustainability of Yellowstone's iconic ungulate herds in the Anthropocene.
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Thom D, Ammer C, Annighöfer P, Aszalós R, Dittrich S, Hagge J, Keeton WS, Kovacs B, Krautkrämer O, Müller J, von Oheimb G, Seidl R. Regeneration in European beech forests after drought: the effects of microclimate, deadwood and browsing. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH 2022; 142:259-273. [PMID: 37065509 PMCID: PMC10085954 DOI: 10.1007/s10342-022-01520-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Revised: 10/06/2022] [Accepted: 11/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED With progressing climate change, increasing weather extremes will endanger tree regeneration. Canopy openings provide light for tree establishment, but also reduce the microclimatic buffering effect of forests. Thus, disturbances can have both positive and negative impacts on tree regeneration. In 2015, three years before an extreme drought episode hit Central Europe, we established a manipulation experiment with a factorial block design in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)-dominated forests. At five sites located in southeastern Germany, we conducted three censuses of tree regeneration after implementing two different canopy disturbances (aggregated and distributed canopy openings), and four deadwood treatments (retaining downed, standing, downed + standing deadwood and removing all deadwood), as well as in one untreated control plot. In addition, we measured understory light levels and recorded local air temperature and humidity over five years. We (i) tested the effects of experimental disturbance and deadwood treatments on regeneration and (ii) identified the drivers of regeneration density as well as seedling species and structural diversity. Regeneration density increased over time. Aggregated canopy openings supported species and structural diversity, but reduced regeneration density. Tree regeneration was positively associated with understory light levels, while maximum vapor pressure deficit influenced tree regeneration negatively. Deadwood and browsing impacts on regeneration varied and were inconclusive. Our study indicates that despite the drought episode regeneration in beech-dominated forests persisted under moderately disturbed canopies. However, the positive effect of increased light availability on tree regeneration might have been offset by harsher microclimate after canopies have been disturbed. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10342-022-01520-1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-Von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405 USA
| | - Christian Ammer
- Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, Faculty of Forest Sciences, University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Peter Annighöfer
- Forestry and Agroforestry Systems Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-Von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Réka Aszalós
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Alkotmány Út 2-4, Vácrátót, 2163 Hungary
| | - Sebastian Dittrich
- Institute of General Ecology and Environmental Protection, Department of Forest Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Straße 7, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
| | - Jonas Hagge
- Forest Nature Conservation, Northwest German Forest Research Institute, Prof.-Oelkers-Str. 6, 34346 Hann. Münden, Germany
- Forest Nature Conservation, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Büsgenweg 3, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - William S. Keeton
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT 05405 USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405 USA
| | - Bence Kovacs
- Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Alkotmány Út 2-4, Vácrátót, 2163 Hungary
| | - Ole Krautkrämer
- Animal Ecology, Department of Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Philipps-University of Marburg, Karl-Von-Frisch-Straße 8, 35043 Marburg, Germany
- LPV, Thüringer Wald E. V., Rennsteigstraße 18, 98673 Eisfeld, OT Friedrichshöhe Germany
| | - Jörg Müller
- Ecological Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, University of Würzburg, Glashüttenstraße 5, 96181 Rauhenebrach, Germany
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Strasse 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany
| | - Goddert von Oheimb
- Institute of General Ecology and Environmental Protection, Department of Forest Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Straße 7, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-Von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Doktorberg 6, 83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
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Abstract
AbstractRapid advances in hardware and software, accompanied by public- and private-sector investment, have led to a new generation of data-driven computational tools. Recently, there has been a particular focus on deep learning—a class of machine learning algorithms that uses deep neural networks to identify patterns in large and heterogeneous datasets. These developments have been accompanied by both hype and scepticism by ecologists and others. This review describes the context in which deep learning methods have emerged, the deep learning methods most relevant to ecosystem ecologists, and some of the problem domains they have been applied to. Deep learning methods have high predictive performance in a range of ecological contexts, leveraging the large data resources now available. Furthermore, deep learning tools offer ecosystem ecologists new ways to learn about ecosystem dynamics. In particular, recent advances in interpretable machine learning and in developing hybrid approaches combining deep learning and mechanistic models provide a bridge between pure prediction and causal explanation. We conclude by looking at the opportunities that deep learning tools offer ecosystem ecologists and assess the challenges in interpretability that deep learning applications pose.
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Abstract
Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.
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11
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Shuman JK, Balch JK, Barnes RT, Higuera PE, Roos CI, Schwilk DW, Stavros EN, Banerjee T, Bela MM, Bendix J, Bertolino S, Bililign S, Bladon KD, Brando P, Breidenthal RE, Buma B, Calhoun D, Carvalho LMV, Cattau ME, Cawley KM, Chandra S, Chipman ML, Cobian-Iñiguez J, Conlisk E, Coop JD, Cullen A, Davis KT, Dayalu A, De Sales F, Dolman M, Ellsworth LM, Franklin S, Guiterman CH, Hamilton M, Hanan EJ, Hansen WD, Hantson S, Harvey BJ, Holz A, Huang T, Hurteau MD, Ilangakoon NT, Jennings M, Jones C, Klimaszewski-Patterson A, Kobziar LN, Kominoski J, Kosovic B, Krawchuk MA, Laris P, Leonard J, Loria-Salazar SM, Lucash M, Mahmoud H, Margolis E, Maxwell T, McCarty JL, McWethy DB, Meyer RS, Miesel JR, Moser WK, Nagy RC, Niyogi D, Palmer HM, Pellegrini A, Poulter B, Robertson K, Rocha AV, Sadegh M, Santos F, Scordo F, Sexton JO, Sharma AS, Smith AMS, Soja AJ, Still C, Swetnam T, Syphard AD, Tingley MW, Tohidi A, Trugman AT, Turetsky M, Varner JM, Wang Y, Whitman T, Yelenik S, Zhang X. Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene. PNAS NEXUS 2022; 1:pgac115. [PMID: 36741468 PMCID: PMC9896919 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacquelyn K Shuman
- Terrestrial Sciences Section, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Jennifer K Balch
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Rebecca T Barnes
- Environmental Studies Program, Colorado College, 14 East Cache la Poudre, Colorado Springs, CO, 80903, USA
| | - Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Christopher I Roos
- Department of Anthropology, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750336, Dallas, TX, 75275-0336, USA
| | - Dylan W Schwilk
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, 2901 Main St. Lubbock, TX, 79409-43131, USA
| | - E Natasha Stavros
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Tirtha Banerjee
- Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, 3084 Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering Building, UC Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Megan M Bela
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Jacob Bendix
- Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University, 144 Eggers Hall, Syracuse NY 13244, USA
| | - Sandro Bertolino
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Via Accademia Albertina 13, 10123 Torino, Italy
| | - Solomon Bililign
- Department of Physics, North Carolina A&T State University, 1601 E Market Street, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
| | - Kevin D Bladon
- Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Oregon State University, 244 Peavy Forest Science Center; Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA
| | - Paulo Brando
- Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, 3215 Croul Hall Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Robert E Breidenthal
- Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Washington, Box 352400, Seattle, WA 98195-2400, USA
| | - Brian Buma
- Integrative Biology, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 171, P.O. Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA
| | - Donna Calhoun
- Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1135, USA
| | - Leila M V Carvalho
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Megan E Cattau
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Kaelin M Cawley
- National Ecological Observatory Network, Battelle, 1685 38th St., Suite 100, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
| | - Sudeep Chandra
- Global Water Center, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
| | - Melissa L Chipman
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, 317 Heroy Geology Building, 141 Crouse Dr, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Jeanette Cobian-Iñiguez
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California Merced, Sustainability Research and Engineering, SRE 366, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Erin Conlisk
- Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Dr, Petaluma, CA 94954, USA
| | - Jonathan D Coop
- Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, 1 Western Way, Gunnison CO 81231, USA
| | - Alison Cullen
- Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Parrington Hall, Mailbox 353055, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USA
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, 59812, USA
| | - Archana Dayalu
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, 131 Hartwell Ave, Lexington MA 02421, USA
| | - Fernando De Sales
- Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA
| | - Megan Dolman
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Lisa M Ellsworth
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97330, USA
| | - Scott Franklin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, 501 20th Street, Greeley, CO 80639, USA
| | - Christopher H Guiterman
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, 216 UCB, Boulder CO, 80309, USA
- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 325 Broadway, NOAA E/GC3, Boulder, Colorado 80305-3337, USA
| | - Matthew Hamilton
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
| | - Erin J Hanan
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia St. Mail Stop 0186. Reno, NV 89509, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
| | - Stijn Hantson
- Earth System Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Max Planck Tandem Group in Earth System Science, Universidad del Rosario, Carrera 26 # 63b-48, Bogota, DC 111221, Colombia
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, UW-SEFS, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, OR 97201, USA
| | - Tao Huang
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise State Environmental Research Building, 1295 W University Dr, Boise, ID 83706, USA
| | - Matthew D Hurteau
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, MSC03 2020, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - Nayani T Ilangakoon
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Megan Jennings
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4614, USA
| | - Charles Jones
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | | | - Leda N Kobziar
- College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 1031 N. Academic Way Coeur d'Alene, ID 83844, USA
| | - John Kominoski
- Institute of Environment and Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - Branko Kosovic
- Weather Systems and Assessment Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Meg A Krawchuk
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Paul Laris
- Department of Geography, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840, USA
| | - Jackson Leonard
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | | | - Melissa Lucash
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, 1251 University of Oregon, Eugene OR 97403-1251, USA
| | - Hussam Mahmoud
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, 1372 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA
| | - Ellis Margolis
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, 15 Entrance Rd., Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
| | - Toby Maxwell
- Department of Biological Sciences, Boise State University, 1910 University Dr. Boise ID 83725, USA
| | - Jessica L McCarty
- Department of Geography and Geospatial Analysis Center, Miami University, 217 Shideler Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
| | - David B McWethy
- Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, 226 Traphagen Hall, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - Rachel S Meyer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Jessica R Miesel
- Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, 1066 Bogue Street Rm A286, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - W Keith Moser
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 2500 S. Pine Knoll Dr. Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA
| | - R Chelsea Nagy
- Earth Lab, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder,4001 Discovery Drive, Suite S348 611 UCB, Boulder, CO, 80303, USA
| | - Dev Niyogi
- Jackson School of Geosciences, and Cockrell School of Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 2305 Speedway Stop C1160, Austin, TX 78712-1692, USA
| | - Hannah M Palmer
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
| | - Adam Pellegrini
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing St, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Benjamin Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Road, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | - Kevin Robertson
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Adrian V Rocha
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Campus Dr., Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Mojtaba Sadegh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID, 83725, USA
| | - Fernanda Santos
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, P.O. Box 2008, MS-6038, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6038, USA
| | - Facundo Scordo
- Global Water Center and the Department of Biology, University of Nevada, 1664 N. Virginia, Reno, NV, 89509, USA
- Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía (IADO-CONICET-UNS), Florida 8000, Bahía Blanca, B8000BFW Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Joseph O Sexton
- terraPulse, Inc., 13201 Squires Ct., North Potomac, MD 20878, USA
| | - A Surjalal Sharma
- Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, 4296 Stadium Dr., Astronomy Dept Room 1113, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Alistair M S Smith
- Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, College of Science, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 3021, Moscow ID, 83843-3021, USA
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Science, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive MS 1133, Moscow, ID 83844-1133, USA
| | - Amber J Soja
- NASA Langley Research Center, NASA, 2 Langley Blvd, Hampton, VA 23681, USA
- National Institute of Aerospace, NASA, 100 Exploration Way, Hampton, VA 23666, USA
| | - Christopher Still
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Tyson Swetnam
- Data Science Institute, University of Arizona, 1657 E Helen St, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Alexandra D Syphard
- Conservation Biology Institute, 10423 Sierra Vista Ave., La Mesa, CA, 91941, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, 621 Charles E Young Dr S #951606, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Ali Tohidi
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, San Jose State University, Room 310-K, ENG Building, 1 Washington Square, San Jose, CA 95112, USA
| | - Anna T Trugman
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Merritt Turetsky
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
| | - J Morgan Varner
- Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, 13093 Henry Beadel Drive, Tallahassee, FL 32312, USA
| | - Yuhang Wang
- School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA
| | - Thea Whitman
- Department of Soil Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1525 Observatory Dr., Madison, WI 53711, USA
| | - Stephanie Yelenik
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, 920 Valley Road, Reno NV, 89512, USA
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of California Merced, Merced, 5200 Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95343, USA
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12
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Thom D, Rammer W, Laux P, Smiatek G, Kunstmann H, Seibold S, Seidl R. Will forest dynamics continue to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Northern Alps? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:3260-3274. [PMID: 35170829 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the acceleration of forest change will continue in the future, or whether downregulating feedbacks will eventually decouple forest dynamics from climate change. Here we studied future forest dynamics at Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means of a process-based forest landscape model, simulating an ensemble of 22 climate projections until the end of the 21st century. Our objectives were (i) to assess whether the observed acceleration of forest dynamics will continue in the future, (ii) to analyze how uncertainty in future climate translates to variation in future forest disturbance, structure, and composition, and (iii) to determine the main drivers of future forest dynamics. We found that forest dynamics continue to accelerate in the coming decades, with a trend towards denser, structurally more complex and more species rich forests. However, changes in forest structure leveled off in the second half of the 21st century regardless of climate scenario. In contrast, climate scenarios caused trajectories of tree species change to diverge in the second half of the 21st century, with stabilization under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios and accelerated loss of conifers under RCP 8.5. Disturbance projections were 3 to 20 times more variable than future climate, whereas projected future forest structure and composition varied considerably less than climate. Indirect effects of climate change via alterations of the disturbance regime had a stronger impact on future forest dynamics than direct effects. Our findings suggest that dampening feedbacks within forest dynamics will decelerate forest change in the second half of the 21st century. However, warming beyond the levels projected under RCP 4.5 might profoundly alter future forest disturbance and composition, challenging conservation efforts and ecosystem service supply.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Patrick Laux
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Gerhard Smiatek
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Harald Kunstmann
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpin, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Sebastian Seibold
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
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13
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Barnes PW, Robson TM, Neale PJ, Williamson CE, Zepp RG, Madronich S, Wilson SR, Andrady AL, Heikkilä AM, Bernhard GH, Bais AF, Neale RE, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Klekociuk AR, Martinez-Abaigar J, Robinson SA, Wang QW, Banaszak AT, Häder DP, Hylander S, Rose KC, Wängberg SÅ, Foereid B, Hou WC, Ossola R, Paul ND, Ukpebor JE, Andersen MPS, Longstreth J, Schikowski T, Solomon KR, Sulzberger B, Bruckman LS, Pandey KK, White CC, Zhu L, Zhu M, Aucamp PJ, Liley JB, McKenzie RL, Berwick M, Byrne SN, Hollestein LM, Lucas RM, Olsen CM, Rhodes LE, Yazar S, Young AR. Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2022; 21:275-301. [PMID: 35191005 PMCID: PMC8860140 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-022-00176-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Accepted: 01/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/07/2022]
Abstract
The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1-67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University New Orleans, New Orleans, USA
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology (OEB), Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - P J Neale
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, USA
| | | | - R G Zepp
- ORD/CEMM, US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA
| | - S Madronich
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - S R Wilson
- School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - A L Andrady
- Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Apex, USA
| | - A M Heikkilä
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - A F Bais
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - R E Neale
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia.
| | | | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J Martinez-Abaigar
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of La Rioja, La Rioja, Logroño, Spain
| | - S A Robinson
- Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Global Challenges Program and School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - Q-W Wang
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang, China
| | - A T Banaszak
- Unidad Académica De Sistemas Arrecifales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico
| | - D-P Häder
- Department of Biology, Friedrich-Alexander University, Möhrendorf, Germany
| | - S Hylander
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems-EEMiS, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden.
| | - K C Rose
- Biological Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA
| | - S-Å Wängberg
- Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - B Foereid
- Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
| | - W-C Hou
- Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - R Ossola
- Environmental System Science (D-USYS), ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - J E Ukpebor
- Chemistry Department, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
| | - M P S Andersen
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, California State University, Northridge, USA
- Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - J Longstreth
- The Institute for Global Risk Research, LLC, Bethesda, USA
| | - T Schikowski
- Research Group of Environmental Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute of Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - K R Solomon
- Centre for Toxicology, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - B Sulzberger
- Academic Guest, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - L S Bruckman
- Materials Science and Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA
| | - K K Pandey
- Wood Processing Division, Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bangalore, India
| | - C C White
- Polymer Science and Materials Chemistry (PSMC), Exponent, Bethesda, USA
| | - L Zhu
- College of Materials Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai, China
| | - M Zhu
- State Key Laboratory for Modification of Chemical Fibers and Polymer Materials, Donghua University, Shanghai, China
| | - P J Aucamp
- Ptersa Environmental Consultants, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - J B Liley
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Alexandra, New Zealand
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Alexandra, New Zealand
| | - M Berwick
- Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, USA
| | - S N Byrne
- Applied Medical Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - L M Hollestein
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - R M Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - C M Olsen
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - L E Rhodes
- Photobiology Unit, Dermatology Research Centre, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - S Yazar
- Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia
| | - A R Young
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College London (KCL), London, UK
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14
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Nimmo DG, Andersen AN, Archibald S, Boer MM, Brotons L, Parr CL, Tingley MW. Fire ecology for the 21st century: Conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Dale G. Nimmo
- Gulbali Institute, School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences Charles Sturt University Albury New South Wales Australia
| | - Alan N. Andersen
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods Charles Darwin University Ellengown Drive Brinkin Northern Territory Australia
| | - Sally Archibald
- Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg South Africa
| | - Matthias M. Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University Richmond New South Wales Australia
| | - Lluís Brotons
- CTFC Solsona Spain
- CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès Spain
- CSIC Cerdanyola del Vallès Spain
| | - Catherine L. Parr
- School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
- Department of Zoology & Entomology University of Pretoria Pretoria South Africa
- School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences University of the Witwatersrand Wits South Africa
| | - Morgan W. Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California – Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
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