Widespread regeneration failure in forests of Greater Yellowstone under scenarios of future climate and fire

Parameters of 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances for an individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model

Understanding the impacts of changing climate and disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems is greatly aided by the use of process-based models. Such models simulate processes based on first principles of ecology, which requires parameterization. Parameterization is an important step in model development and application, defining the characteristics of trees and their responses to the environment, i.e., their traits. For species-specific models, parameterization is usually done at the level of individual species. Parameterization is indispensable for accurately modeling demographic processes, including growth, mortality, and regeneration of trees, along with their intra- and inter-specific interactions. As it is time-demanding to compile the parameters required to simulate forest ecosystems in complex models, simulations are often restricted to the most common tree species, genera, or plant-functional types. Yet, as tree species composition might change in the future, it is important to account for a broad range of species and their individual responses to drivers of change explicitly in simulations. Thus, species-specific parameterization is a critical task for making accurate projections about future forest trajectories, yet species parameters often remain poorly documented in simulation studies. We compiled and harmonized all existing tree species parameters available for the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Since its first publication in 2012, iLand has been applied in 50 peer-reviewed publications across three continents throughout the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., Europe, North America, and Asia). The model operates at individual-tree level and simulates ecosystem processes at multiple spatial scales, making it a capable process-based model for studying forest change. However, the extensive number of processes and their interactions as well as the wide range of spatio-temporal scales considered in iLand require intensive parameterization, with tree species characterized by 66 unique parameters in the model. The database presented here includes parameters for 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances (i.e., regional variations). Excluding missing values, the database includes a total of 9,249 individual parameter entries. In addition, we provide parameters for the individual susceptibility of tree species to wind disturbance (five parameters) for a subset of 104 tree species and provenances (498 parameter entries). To guide further model parameterization efforts, we provide an estimate of uncertainty for each species based on how thoroughly simulations with the respective parameters were evaluated against independent data. Our dataset aids the future parameterization and application of iLand, and sets a new standard in documenting parameters used in process-based forest simulations. This dataset will support model application in previously unstudied areas and can facilitate the investigation of new tree species being introduced to well-studied systems (e.g., simulating assisted migration in the context of rapid climate change). Given that many process-based models rely on similar underlying processes our harmonized parameter set will be of relevance beyond the iLand community. Our work could catalyze further research into improving the parameterization of process-based forest models, increasing the robustness of projections of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Thermal compensation reduces DNA damage from UV radiation

Increases in ultraviolet radiation (UVR) correlate spatially and temporally with global amphibian population declines and interact with other stressors such as disease and temperature. Declines have largely occurred in high-altitude areas associated with greater UVR and cooler temperatures. UVR is a powerful mutagenic harming organisms largely by damaging DNA. When acutely exposed to UVR at cool temperatures, amphibian larvae have increased levels of DNA damage. Amphibians may compensate for the depressive effects of temperature on DNA damage through acclimatisation, but it is unknown whether they have this capacity. We reared striped marsh frog larvae (Limnodynastes peronii) in warm (25 °C) and cool (15 °C) temperatures under a low or moderate daily dose of UVR (10 and 40 μW cm-2 UV-B for 1 h at midday, respectively) for 18-20 days and then measured DNA damage resulting from an acute high UVR dose (80 μW cm-2 UV-B for 1.5 h) at a range of temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C). Larvae acclimated to 15 °C and exposed to UVR at 15 °C completely compensated UVR-induced DNA damage compared with 25 °C acclimated larvae exposed to UVR at 25 °C. Additionally, warm-acclimated larvae had higher DNA damage than cold-acclimated larvae across test temperatures, which indicated a cost of living in warmer temperatures. Larvae reared under elevated UVR levels showed no evidence of UVR acclimation resulting in lower DNA damage following high UVR exposure. Our finding that thermal acclimation in L. peronii larvae compensated UVR-induced DNA damage at low temperatures suggested that aquatic ectotherms living in cool temperatures may be more resilient to high UVR than previously realised. We suggested individuals or species with less capacity for thermal acclimation of DNA repair mechanisms may be more at risk if exposed to changing thermal and UVR exposure regimes.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

Threat Perception and Adaptive Capacity of Natural World Heritage Site Management

This study offers new insights into the largest threats to natural and mixed World Heritage sites in developed countries as considered by their management. In addition to this, the capacity of the management to deal with threats is examined. An Ordered Probit model is used that distinguishes three groups of threats and four categories of adaptive capacity of the management. Data originate from the 2014 UNESCO Periodic Report II for sites in economically advanced countries (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea) linked to the World Heritage Site database. Estimation results reveal that the probability of a major threat to World Heritage sites is perceived to be highest in the category of climate change and extreme weather events, followed by local conditions affecting the physical structure (temperature, rain, dust). Sites in tropical climates are perceived as significantly more threatened, as are those earlier listed as in danger. The likelihood of perceiving a major threat is highest in Turkey, Italy, Norway and North America. Threats related to climate change are those the management has the lowest capacity to deal with when other important aspects are controlled for. Large and natural areas have a higher perceived administrative capacity to deal with threats than others.

Feast or famine: How is global change affecting forage supply for Yellowstone's ungulate herds?

The ecological integrity of US national parks and other protected areas are under threat in the Anthropocene. For Yellowstone National Park (YNP), the impacts that global change has already had on the park's capacity to sustain its large migratory herds of wild ungulates is incompletely understood. Here we examine how two understudied components of global change, the historical increase in atmospheric CO₂ and the spread of nonnative, invasive plant species, may have altered the capacity of YNP to provide forage for ungulates over the last 200-plus years. We performed two experiments: (1) a growth chamber study that determined the growth rates of important invasive and native YNP grasses that are forages for ungulates under preindustrial (280 ppm) versus modern (410 ppm) CO₂ levels and (2) a field study that compared the effect of defoliation (clipping) on the shoot growth of invasive and native mesic grassland plants under ambient CO₂ conditions in 2019. The growth chamber experiment revealed that modern CO₂ increased the growth rates of both invasive and native grasses, and invasive grasses grew faster regardless of CO₂ conditions. The field results showed a continuum of positive to negative responses of shoot growth to defoliation, with a subgroup of invasive species responding most positively. Altogether the results indicated that the historical increase in CO₂ and the spread of invasive species, some of which were planted to provide forage for ungulates in the early and mid-1900s, have likely increased the capacity of forage production in YNP. However, rising CO₂ has also resulted in regional warming and increased aridity in YNP, which will likely reduce grassland productivity. The challenge for global change biologists and park managers is to determine how competing components of global change have already affected and will increasingly affect forage dynamics and the sustainability of Yellowstone's iconic ungulate herds in the Anthropocene.

Regeneration in European beech forests after drought: the effects of microclimate, deadwood and browsing

With progressing climate change, increasing weather extremes will endanger tree regeneration. Canopy openings provide light for tree establishment, but also reduce the microclimatic buffering effect of forests. Thus, disturbances can have both positive and negative impacts on tree regeneration. In 2015, three years before an extreme drought episode hit Central Europe, we established a manipulation experiment with a factorial block design in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)-dominated forests. At five sites located in southeastern Germany, we conducted three censuses of tree regeneration after implementing two different canopy disturbances (aggregated and distributed canopy openings), and four deadwood treatments (retaining downed, standing, downed + standing deadwood and removing all deadwood), as well as in one untreated control plot. In addition, we measured understory light levels and recorded local air temperature and humidity over five years. We (i) tested the effects of experimental disturbance and deadwood treatments on regeneration and (ii) identified the drivers of regeneration density as well as seedling species and structural diversity. Regeneration density increased over time. Aggregated canopy openings supported species and structural diversity, but reduced regeneration density. Tree regeneration was positively associated with understory light levels, while maximum vapor pressure deficit influenced tree regeneration negatively. Deadwood and browsing impacts on regeneration varied and were inconclusive. Our study indicates that despite the drought episode regeneration in beech-dominated forests persisted under moderately disturbed canopies. However, the positive effect of increased light availability on tree regeneration might have been offset by harsher microclimate after canopies have been disturbed.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10342-022-01520-1.

An Outlook for Deep Learning in Ecosystem Science

Rapid advances in hardware and software, accompanied by public- and private-sector investment, have led to a new generation of data-driven computational tools. Recently, there has been a particular focus on deep learning—a class of machine learning algorithms that uses deep neural networks to identify patterns in large and heterogeneous datasets. These developments have been accompanied by both hype and scepticism by ecologists and others. This review describes the context in which deep learning methods have emerged, the deep learning methods most relevant to ecosystem ecologists, and some of the problem domains they have been applied to. Deep learning methods have high predictive performance in a range of ecological contexts, leveraging the large data resources now available. Furthermore, deep learning tools offer ecosystem ecologists new ways to learn about ecosystem dynamics. In particular, recent advances in interpretable machine learning and in developing hybrid approaches combining deep learning and mechanistic models provide a bridge between pure prediction and causal explanation. We conclude by looking at the opportunities that deep learning tools offer ecosystem ecologists and assess the challenges in interpretability that deep learning applications pose.

Post-disturbance reorganization of forest ecosystems in a changing world

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Will forest dynamics continue to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Northern Alps?

Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the acceleration of forest change will continue in the future, or whether downregulating feedbacks will eventually decouple forest dynamics from climate change. Here we studied future forest dynamics at Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means of a process-based forest landscape model, simulating an ensemble of 22 climate projections until the end of the 21st century. Our objectives were (i) to assess whether the observed acceleration of forest dynamics will continue in the future, (ii) to analyze how uncertainty in future climate translates to variation in future forest disturbance, structure, and composition, and (iii) to determine the main drivers of future forest dynamics. We found that forest dynamics continue to accelerate in the coming decades, with a trend towards denser, structurally more complex and more species rich forests. However, changes in forest structure leveled off in the second half of the 21st century regardless of climate scenario. In contrast, climate scenarios caused trajectories of tree species change to diverge in the second half of the 21st century, with stabilization under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios and accelerated loss of conifers under RCP 8.5. Disturbance projections were 3 to 20 times more variable than future climate, whereas projected future forest structure and composition varied considerably less than climate. Indirect effects of climate change via alterations of the disturbance regime had a stronger impact on future forest dynamics than direct effects. Our findings suggest that dampening feedbacks within forest dynamics will decelerate forest change in the second half of the 21st century. However, warming beyond the levels projected under RCP 4.5 might profoundly alter future forest disturbance and composition, challenging conservation efforts and ecosystem service supply.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1-67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.