Coral adaptation to climate change: Meta-analysis reveals high heritability across multiple traits

Selective breeding enhances coral heat tolerance to marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, widespread and severe, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality. Natural adaptation may be insufficient to keep pace with climate warming, leading to calls for selective breeding interventions to enhance the ability of corals to survive such heatwaves, i.e., their heat tolerance. However, the heritability of this trait-a prerequisite for such approaches-remains unknown. We show that selecting parent colonies for high rather than low heat tolerance increased the tolerance of adult offspring (3-4-year-olds). This result held for the response to both 1-week +3.5 °C and 1-month +2.5 °C simulated marine heatwaves. In each case, narrow-sense heritability (h2) estimates are between 0.2 and 0.3, demonstrating a substantial genetic basis of heat tolerance. The phenotypic variability identified in this population could theoretically be leveraged to enhance heat tolerance by up to 1 °C-week within one generation. Concerningly, selective breeding for short-stress tolerance did not improve the ability of offspring to survive the long heat stress exposure. With no genetic correlation detected, these traits may be subject to independent genetic controls. Our finding on the heritability of coral heat tolerance indicates that selective breeding could be a viable tool to improve population resilience. Yet, the moderate levels of enhancement we found suggest that the effectiveness of such interventions also demands urgent climate action.

Climate adaptive loci revealed by seascape genomics correlate with phenotypic variation in heat tolerance of the coral Acropora millepora

One of the main challenges in coral reef conservation and restoration is the identification of coral populations resilient under global warming. Seascape genomics is a powerful tool to uncover genetic markers potentially involved in heat tolerance among large populations without prior information on phenotypes. Here, we aimed to provide first insights on the role of candidate heat associated loci identified using seascape genomics in driving the phenotypic response of Acropora millepora from New Caledonia to thermal stress. We subjected 7 colonies to a long-term ex-situ heat stress assay (4 °C above the maximum monthly mean) and investigated their physiological response along with their Symbiodiniaceae communities and genotypes. Despite sharing similar thermal histories and associated symbionts, these conspecific individuals differed greatly in their tolerance to heat stress. More importantly, the clustering of individuals based on their genotype at heat-associated loci matched the phenotypic variation in heat tolerance. Colonies that sustained on average lower mortality, higher Symbiodiniaceae/chlorophyll concentrations and photosynthetic efficiency under prolonged heat stress were also the closest based on their genotypes, although the low sample size prevented testing loci predictive accuracy. Together these preliminary results support the relevance of coupling seascape genomics and long-term heat stress experiments in the future, to evaluate the effect size of candidate heat associated loci and pave the way for genomic predictive models of corals heat tolerance.

Widespread scope for coral adaptation under combined ocean warming and acidification

Reef-building coral populations are at serious risk of collapse due to the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification. Nonetheless, many corals show potential to adapt to the changing ocean conditions. Here we examine the broad sense heritability (H2) of coral calcification rates across an ecologically and phylogenetically diverse sampling of eight of the primary reef-building corals across the Indo-Pacific. We show that all eight species exhibit relatively high heritability of calcification rates under combined warming and acidification (0.23-0.56). Furthermore, tolerance to each factor is positively correlated and the two factors do not interact in most of the species, contrary to the idea of trade-offs between temperature and pH sensitivity, and all eight species can co-evolve tolerance to elevated temperature and reduced pH. Using these values together with historical data, we estimate potential increases in thermal tolerance of 1.0-1.7°C over the next 50 years, depending on species. None of these species are probably capable of keeping up with a high global change scenario and climate change mitigation is essential if reefs are to persist. Such estimates are critical for our understanding of how corals may respond to global change, accurately parametrizing modelled responses, and predicting rapid evolution.

Microhabitat acclimatization alters sea anemone-algal symbiosis and thermal tolerance across the intertidal zone

Contemporary symbioses in extreme environments can give an insight into mechanisms that stabilize species interactions during environmental change. The intertidal sea anemone, Anthopleura elegantissima, engages in a nutritional symbiosis with microalgae similar to tropical coral, but withstands more intense environmental fluctuations during tidal inundations. In this study, we compare baseline symbiotic traits and their sensitivity to thermal stress within and among anemone aggregations across the intertidal using a laboratory-based tank experiment to better understand how fixed genotypic and plastic environmental effects contribute to the successful maintenance of this symbiosis in extreme habitats. High intertidal anemones had lower baseline symbiont-to-host cell ratios under control conditions, but their symbionts had higher baseline photosynthetic efficiency compared to low intertidal anemone symbionts. Symbiont communities were identical across all samples, suggesting that shifts in symbiont density and photosynthetic performance could be an acclimatory mechanism to maintain symbiosis in different environments. Despite lower baseline symbiont-to-host cell ratios, high intertidal anemones maintained greater symbiont-to-host cell ratios under heat stress compared with low intertidal anemones, suggesting greater thermal tolerance of high intertidal holobionts. However, the thermal tolerance of clonal anemones acclimatized to different zones was not explained by tidal height alone, indicating additional environmental variables contribute to physiological differences. Host genotype significantly influenced anemone weight, but only explained a minor proportion of variation among symbiotic traits and their response to thermal stress, further implicating environmental history as the primary driver of holobiont tolerance. These results indicate that this symbiosis is highly plastic and may be able to acclimatize to climate change over ecological timescales, defying the convention that symbiotic organisms are more susceptible to environmental stress.

Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater cladoceran under climate change

Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CTmax are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Thermal tolerance traits of individual corals are widely distributed across the Great Barrier Reef

Adaptation of reef-building corals to global warming depends upon standing heritable variation in tolerance traits upon which selection can act. Yet limited knowledge exists on heat-tolerance variation among conspecific individuals separated by metres to hundreds of kilometres. Here, we performed standardized acute heat-stress assays to quantify the thermal tolerance traits of 709 colonies of Acropora spathulata from 13 reefs spanning 1060 km (9.5° latitude) of the Great Barrier Reef. Thermal thresholds for photochemical efficiency and chlorophyll retention varied considerably among individual colonies both among reefs (approximately 6°C) and within reefs (approximately 3°C). Although tolerance rankings of colonies varied between traits, the most heat-tolerant corals (i.e. top 25% of each trait) were found at virtually all reefs, indicating widespread phenotypic variation. Reef-scale environmental predictors explained 12-62% of trait variation. Corals exposed to high thermal averages and recent thermal stress exhibited the greatest photochemical performance, probably reflecting local adaptation and stress pre-acclimatization, and the lowest chlorophyll retention suggesting stress pre-sensitization. Importantly, heat tolerance relative to local summer temperatures was the greatest on higher latitude reefs suggestive of higher adaptive potential. These results can be used to identify naturally tolerant coral populations and individuals for conservation and restoration applications.

Acute heat priming promotes short-term climate resilience of early life stages in a model sea anemone

Across diverse taxa, sublethal exposure to abiotic stressors early in life can lead to benefits such as increased stress tolerance upon repeat exposure. This phenomenon, known as hormetic priming, is largely unexplored in early life stages of marine invertebrates, which are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic climate change. To investigate this phenomenon, larvae of the sea anemone and model marine invertebrate Nematostella vectensis were exposed to control (18 °C) or elevated (24 °C, 30 °C, 35 °C, or 39 °C) temperatures for 1 h at 3 days post-fertilization (DPF), followed by return to control temperatures (18 °C). The animals were then assessed for growth, development, metabolic rates, and heat tolerance at 4, 7, and 11 DPF. Priming at intermediately elevated temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C, or 35 °C) augmented growth and development compared to controls or priming at 39 °C. Indeed, priming at 39 °C hampered developmental progression, with around 40% of larvae still in the planula stage at 11 DPF, in contrast to 0% for all other groups. Total protein content, a proxy for biomass, and respiration rates were not significantly affected by priming, suggesting metabolic resilience. Heat tolerance was quantified with acute heat stress exposures, and was significantly higher for animals primed at intermediate temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C, or 35 °C) compared to controls or those primed at 39 °C at all time points. To investigate a possible molecular mechanism for the observed changes in heat tolerance, the expression of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) was quantified at 11 DPF. Expression of HSP70 significantly increased with increasing priming temperature, with the presence of a doublet band for larvae primed at 39 °C, suggesting persistent negative effects of priming on protein homeostasis. Interestingly, primed larvae in a second cohort cultured to 6 weeks post-fertilization continued to display hormetic growth responses, whereas benefits for heat tolerance were lost; in contrast, negative effects of short-term exposure to extreme heat stress (39 °C) persisted. These results demonstrate that some dose-dependent effects of priming waned over time while others persisted, resulting in heterogeneity in organismal performance across ontogeny following priming. Overall, these findings suggest that heat priming may augment the climate resilience of marine invertebrate early life stages via the modulation of key developmental and physiological phenotypes, while also affirming the need to limit further anthropogenic ocean warming.

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

Coral reefs are both exceptionally biodiverse and threatened by climate change and other human activities. Here, we review population genomic processes in coral reef taxa and their importance for understanding responses to global change. Many taxa on coral reefs are characterized by weak genetic drift, extensive gene flow, and strong selection from complex biotic and abiotic environments, which together present a fascinating test of microevolutionary theory. Selection, gene flow, and hybridization have played and will continue to play an important role in the adaptation or extinction of coral reef taxa in the face of rapid environmental change, but research remains exceptionally limited compared to the urgent needs. Critical areas for future investigation include understanding evolutionary potential and the mechanisms of local adaptation, developing historical baselines, and building greater research capacity in the countries where most reef diversity is concentrated.

"Bet hedging" against climate change in developing and adult animals: roles for stochastic gene expression, phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic inheritance and adaptation

Animals from embryos to adults experiencing stress from climate change have numerous mechanisms available for enhancing their long-term survival. In this review we consider these options, and how viable they are in a world increasingly experiencing extreme weather associated with climate change. A deeply understood mechanism involves natural selection, leading to evolution of new adaptations that help cope with extreme and stochastic weather events associated with climate change. While potentially effective at staving off environmental challenges, such adaptations typically occur very slowly and incrementally over evolutionary time. Consequently, adaptation through natural selection is in most instances regarded as too slow to aid survival in rapidly changing environments, especially when considering the stochastic nature of extreme weather events associated with climate change. Alternative mechanisms operating in a much shorter time frame than adaptation involve the rapid creation of alternate phenotypes within a life cycle or a few generations. Stochastic gene expression creates multiple phenotypes from the same genotype even in the absence of environmental cues. In contrast, other mechanisms for phenotype change that are externally driven by environmental clues include well-understood developmental phenotypic plasticity (variation, flexibility), which can enable rapid, within-generation changes. Increasingly appreciated are epigenetic influences during development leading to rapid phenotypic changes that can also immediately be very widespread throughout a population, rather than confined to a few individuals as in the case of favorable gene mutations. Such epigenetically-induced phenotypic plasticity can arise rapidly in response to stressors within a generation or across a few generations and just as rapidly be "sunsetted" when the stressor dissipates, providing some capability to withstand environmental stressors emerging from climate change. Importantly, survival mechanisms resulting from adaptations and developmental phenotypic plasticity are not necessarily mutually exclusive, allowing for classic "bet hedging". Thus, the appearance of multiple phenotypes within a single population provides for a phenotype potentially optimal for some future environment. This enhances survival during stochastic extreme weather events associated with climate change. Finally, we end with recommendations for future physiological experiments, recommending in particular that experiments investigating phenotypic flexibility adopt more realistic protocols that reflect the stochastic nature of weather.

Disparate genetic divergence patterns in three corals across a pan-Pacific environmental gradient highlight species-specific adaptation

Tropical coral reefs are among the most affected ecosystems by climate change and face increasing loss in the coming decades. Effective conservation strategies that maximize ecosystem resilience must be informed by the accurate characterization of extant genetic diversity and population structure together with an understanding of the adaptive potential of keystone species. Here we analyzed samples from the Tara Pacific Expedition (2016-2018) that completed an 18,000 km longitudinal transect of the Pacific Ocean sampling three widespread corals-Pocillopora meandrina, Porites lobata, and Millepora cf. platyphylla-across 33 sites from 11 islands. Using deep metagenomic sequencing of 269 colonies in conjunction with morphological analyses and climate variability data, we can show that despite a targeted sampling the transect encompasses multiple cryptic species. These species exhibit disparate biogeographic patterns and, most importantly, distinct evolutionary patterns in identical environmental regimes. Our findings demonstrate on a basin scale that evolutionary trajectories are species-specific and can only in part be predicted from the environment. This highlights that conservation strategies must integrate multi-species investigations to discern the distinct genomic footprints shaped by selection as well as the genetic potential for adaptive change.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.

Help Me, Symbionts, You're My Only Hope: Approaches to Accelerate our Understanding of Coral Holobiont Interactions

Tropical corals construct the three-dimensional framework for one of the most diverse ecosystems on the planet, providing habitat to a plethora of species across taxa. However, these ecosystem engineers are facing unprecedented challenges, such as increasing disease prevalence and marine heatwaves associated with anthropogenic global change. As a result, major declines in coral cover and health are being observed across the world's oceans, often due to the breakdown of coral-associated symbioses. Here, we review the interactions between the major symbiotic partners of the coral holobiont-the cnidarian host, algae in the family Symbiodiniaceae, and the microbiome-that influence trait variation, including the molecular mechanisms that underlie symbiosis and the resulting physiological benefits of different microbial partnerships. In doing so, we highlight the current framework for the formation and maintenance of cnidarian-Symbiodiniaceae symbiosis, and the role that immunity pathways play in this relationship. We emphasize that understanding these complex interactions is challenging when you consider the vast genetic variation of the cnidarian host and algal symbiont, as well as their highly diverse microbiome, which is also an important player in coral holobiont health. Given the complex interactions between and among symbiotic partners, we propose several research directions and approaches focused on symbiosis model systems and emerging technologies that will broaden our understanding of how these partner interactions may facilitate the prediction of coral holobiont phenotype, especially under rapid environmental change.

Palau's warmest reefs harbor thermally tolerant corals that thrive across different habitats

Ocean warming is killing corals, but heat-tolerant populations exist; if protected, they could replenish affected reefs naturally or through restoration. Palau's Rock Islands experience consistently higher temperatures and extreme heatwaves, yet their diverse coral communities bleach less than those on Palau's cooler outer reefs. Here, we combined genetic analyses, bleaching histories and growth rates of Porites cf. lobata colonies to identify thermally tolerant genotypes, map their distribution, and investigate potential growth trade-offs. We identified four genetic lineages of P. cf. lobata. On Palau's outer reefs, a thermally sensitive lineage dominates. The Rock Islands harbor two lineages with enhanced thermal tolerance; one of which shows no consistent growth trade-off and also occurs on several outer reefs. This suggests that the Rock Islands provide naturally tolerant larvae to neighboring areas. Finding and protecting such sources of thermally-tolerant corals is key to reef survival under 21^st century climate change.

Environmental contributions to the evolution of trait differences in Geum triflorum: Implications for restoration

PREMISE

How the environment influences the distribution of trait variation across a species' range has important implications for seed transfer during restoration. Evolution across environments could influence fitness when individuals are transferred into new environments. Here, we evaluate the role the environment has had on the distribution of genetic variance for traits important to adaptation.

METHODS

In a common garden experiment, we quantified trait differentiation for populations of Geum triflorum sourced from three distinct ecoregions and evaluated the ability of climate to predict trait variation. Populations were sourced from the Manitoba and Great Lake alvar ecoregions that experience predictable extremes in seasonal water availability and the prairie ecoregion which exhibits unpredictable changes in water availability.

RESULTS

Plants sourced from alvar ecoregions exhibited smaller but more stomata and greater intrinsic water-use efficiency relative to prairie plant populations, supporting the evolution of ecotypic differences. Estimates of standing genetic variance and heritable genetic variation for quantitative traits suggest alvar populations have greater adaptive potential. However, low evolvability suggests all populations likely have limited capacity to evolve in response to environmental change.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of the environment in influencing the evolution and distribution of genetic differences across populations used as seed sources for restoration. Additionally, these data may inform recommendations for seed transfer across novel environments and our expectations of populations' adaptive potential.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

Horizon scan of rapidly advancing coral restoration approaches for 21st century reef management

Coral reef restoration activity is accelerating worldwide in efforts to offset the rate of reef health declines. Many advances have already been made in restoration practices centred on coral biology (coral restoration), and particularly those that look to employ the high adaptive state and capacity of corals in order to ensure that efforts rebuilding coral biomass also equip reefs with enhanced resilience to future stress. We horizon scan the state-of-play for the many coral restoration innovations already underway across the complex life cycle for corals that spans both asexual and sexual reproduction — assisted evolution (manipulations targeted to the coral host and host-associated microbes), biobanking, as well as scalable coral propagation and planting — and how these innovations are in different stages of maturity to support new 21st century reef management frameworks. Realising the potential for coral restoration tools as management aids undoubtedly rests on validating different approaches as their application continues to scale. Whilst the ecosystem service responses to increased scaling still largely remain to be seen, coral restoration has already delivered immense new understanding of coral and coral-associated microbial biology that has long lagged behind advances in other reef sciences.