Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Loss, resilience and recovery of kelp forests in a region of rapid ocean warming

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Changes in kelp abundances on regional scales have been highly variable over the past half-century owing to strong effects of local and regional drivers. Here, we assess patterns and dominant environmental variables causing spatial and interspecific variability in kelp persistence and resilience to change in Nova Scotia over the past 40 years.

METHODS

We conducted a survey of macrophyte abundance at 251 sites spanning the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia from 2019 to 2022. We use this dataset to describe spatial variability in kelp species abundances, compare species occurrences to surveys conducted in 1982 and assess changes in kelp abundance over the past 22 years. We then relate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance and resilience to environmental metrics.

KEY RESULTS

Our results show losses of sea urchins and the cold-tolerant kelp species Alaria esculenta, Saccorhiza dermatodea and Agarum clathratum in Nova Scotia since 1982 in favour of the more warm-tolerant kelps Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata. Kelp abundances have increased slightly since 2000, and Saccharina latissima and L. digitata are widely abundant in the region today. The highest kelp cover occurs on wave-exposed shores and at sites where temperatures have remained below thresholds for growth (21 °C) and mortality (23 °C). Moreover, kelp has recovered from turf dominance following losses at some sites during a warm period from 2010 to 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that dramatic changes in kelp community composition and a loss of sea urchin herbivory as a dominant driver of change in the system have occurred in Nova Scotia over the past 40 years. However, a broad-scale shift to turf-dominance has not occurred, as predicted, and our results suggest that resilience and persistence are still a feature of kelp forests in the region despite rapid warming over the past several decades.

A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific

Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08° S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.

Whole genome population structure of North Atlantic kelp confirms high-latitude glacial refugia

Coastal refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) have been hypothesized at high latitudes in the North Atlantic, suggesting marine populations persisted through cycles of glaciation and are potentially adapted to local environments. Here, whole-genome sequencing was used to test whether North Atlantic marine coastal populations of the kelp Alaria esculenta survived in the area of southwestern Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum. We present the first annotated genome for A. esculenta and call variant positions in 54 individuals from populations in Atlantic Canada, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Norway and Ireland. Differentiation across populations was reflected in ~1.9 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, which further revealed mixed ancestry in the Faroe Islands individuals between putative Greenlandic and European lineages. Time-calibrated organellar phylogenies suggested Greenlandic populations were established during the last interglacial period more than 100,000 years ago, and that the Faroe Islands population was probably established following the Last Glacial Maximum. Patterns in population statistics, including nucleotide diversity, minor allele frequencies, heterozygosity and linkage disequilibrium decay, nonetheless suggested glaciation reduced Canadian Atlantic and Greenlandic populations to small effective sizes during the most recent glaciation. Functional differentiation was further reflected in exon read coverage, which revealed expansions unique to Greenland in 337 exons representing 162 genes, and a modest degree of exon loss (103 exons from 56 genes). Altogether, our genomic results provide strong evidence that A. esculenta populations were resilient to past climatic fluctuations related to glaciations and that high-latitude populations are potentially already adapted to local conditions as a result.

Climate-driven shifts in kelp forest composition reduce carbon sequestration potential

The potential contribution of kelp forests to blue carbon sinks is currently of great interest but interspecific variance has received no attention. In the temperate Northeast Atlantic, kelp forest composition is changing due to climate-driven poleward range shifts of cold temperate Laminaria digitata and Laminaria hyperborea and warm temperate Laminaria ochroleuca. To understand how this might affect the carbon sequestration potential (CSP) of this ecosystem, we quantified interspecific differences in carbon export and decomposition alongside changes in detrital photosynthesis and biochemistry. We found that while warm temperate kelp exports up to 71% more carbon per plant, it decomposes up to 155% faster than its boreal congeners. Elemental stoichiometry and polyphenolic content cannot fully explain faster carbon turnover, which may be attributable to contrasting tissue toughness or unknown biochemical and structural defenses. Faster decomposition causes the detrital photosynthetic apparatus of L. ochroleuca to be overwhelmed 20 days after export and lose integrity after 36 days, while detritus of cold temperate species maintains carbon assimilation. Depending on the photoenvironment, detrital photosynthesis could further exacerbate interspecific differences in decomposition via a potential positive feedback loop. Through compositional change such as the predicted prevalence of L. ochroleuca, ocean warming may therefore reduce the CSP of such temperate marine forests.