Hip fracture risk factors and the discriminability of hip fracture risk vary by age: a case-control study

Predictors of hip fracture in 15 European countries: a longitudinal study of 48,533 geriatric adults using SHARE dataset

We investigated the risk factors for hip fracture in 48,533 European older adults for 8 years from 2013 onward. We identified female gender, age above 80, low handgrip strength, and depression as significant risk factors for hip fracture. Our findings may help identify high-risk populations for hip fractures in pre-clinical settings.

OBJECTIVES

Hip fracture is a major cause of functional disability, mortality, and health costs. However, the identification and characterization of its causative factors remain poor.

METHODS

We investigated demography, handgrip strength (HGS), depression, and multiple age-associated comorbidities for predicting future hip fracture in individuals aged 50 or above from 15 European countries (n = 48,533). All participants were evaluated from 2013 to 2020 using four successive waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).

RESULTS

Altogether, 1130 participants developed hip fractures during the study period. We identified female gender, an advancing age from quinquagenarians onward, and a poor socioeconomic status as critical risk factors for future hip fracture. Having mobility difficulty, a low HGS (< 27 kg in men, < 16 kg in women) and higher scores on Euro-D depression scales were also significant risk factors for hip fracture. Summated scales of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and stroke did not appear as risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Collectively, we report advancing age, female gender, low HGS, and depression as independent risk factors for hip fracture. Our findings are useful in identifying high-risk populations for hip fractures in pre-clinical settings before rigorous evaluation and treatment in clinics.

A machine learning-based scoring system and ten factors associated with hip fracture occurrence in the elderly

Hip fractures are fragility fractures frequently seen in persons over 80-years-old. Although various factors, including decreased bone mineral density and a history of falls, are reported as hip fracture risks, few large-scale studies have confirmed their relevance to individuals older than 80, and tools to assess contributions of various risks to fracture development and the degree of risk are lacking. We recruited 1395 fresh hip fracture patients and 1075 controls without hip fractures and comprehensively evaluated various reported risk factors and their association with hip fracture development. We initially constructed a predictive model using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a machine learning algorithm, incorporating all 40 variables and evaluated the model's performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), yielding a value of 0.87. We also employed SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to evaluate each feature importance and ranked the top 20. We then used a stepwise selection method to determine key factors sequentially until the AUC reached a plateau nearly equal to that of all variables and identified the top 10 sufficient to evaluate hip fracture risk. For each, we determined the cutoff value for hip fracture occurrence and calculated scores of each variable based on the respective feature importance. Individual scores were: serum 25(OH)D levels (<10 ng/ml, score 7), femoral neck T-score (<-3, score 5), Barthel index score (<100, score 3), maximal handgrip strength (<18 kg, score 3), GLFS-25 score (≥24, score 2), number of falls in previous 12 months (≥3, score 2), serum IGF-1 levels (<50 ng/ml, score 2), cups of tea/day (≥5, score -2), use of anti-osteoporosis drugs (yes, score -2), and BMI (<18.5 kg/m2, score 1). Using these scores, we performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the resultant optimal cutoff value was 7, with a specificity of 0.78, sensitivity of 0.75, and AUC of 0.85. These ten factors and the scoring system may represent tools useful to predict hip fracture.

Executive summary: Italian guidelines for diagnosis, risk stratification, and care continuity of fragility fractures 2021

Background

Fragility fractures are a major public health concern owing to their worrying and growing burden and their onerous burden upon health systems. There is now a substantial body of evidence that individuals who have already suffered a fragility fracture are at a greater risk for further fractures, thus suggesting the potential for secondary prevention in this field.

Purpose

This guideline aims to provide evidence-based recommendations for recognizing, stratifying the risk, treating, and managing patients with fragility fracture. This is a summary version of the full Italian guideline.

Methods

The Italian Fragility Fracture Team appointed by the Italian National Health Institute was employed from January 2020 to February 2021 to (i) identify previously published systematic reviews and guidelines on the field, (ii) formulate relevant clinical questions, (iii) systematically review literature and summarize evidence, (iv) draft the Evidence to Decision Framework, and (v) formulate recommendations.

Results

Overall, 351 original papers were included in our systematic review to answer six clinical questions. Recommendations were categorized into issues concerning (i) frailty recognition as the cause of bone fracture, (ii) (re)fracture risk assessment, for prioritizing interventions, and (iii) treatment and management of patients experiencing fragility fractures. Six recommendations were overall developed, of which one, four, and one were of high, moderate, and low quality, respectively.

Conclusions

The current guidelines provide guidance to support individualized management of patients experiencing non-traumatic bone fracture to benefit from secondary prevention of (re)fracture. Although our recommendations are based on the best available evidence, questionable quality evidence is still available for some relevant clinical questions, so future research has the potential to reduce uncertainty about the effects of intervention and the reasons for doing so at a reasonable cost.

Deep learning for screening primary osteopenia and osteoporosis using spine radiographs and patient clinical covariates in a Chinese population

PURPOSE

Many high-risk osteopenia and osteoporosis patients remain undiagnosed. We proposed to construct a convolutional neural network model for screening primary osteopenia and osteoporosis based on the lumbar radiographs, and to compare the diagnostic performance of the CNN model adding the clinical covariates with the image model alone.

METHODS

A total of 6,908 participants were collected for analysis, including postmenopausal women and men aged 50-95 years, who performed conventional lumbar x-ray examinations and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) examinations within 3 months. All participants were divided into a training set, a validation set, test set 1, and test set 2 at a ratio of 8:1:1:1. The bone mineral density (BMD) values derived from DXA were applied as the reference standard. A three-class CNN model was developed to classify the patients into normal BMD, osteopenia, and osteoporosis. Moreover, we developed the models integrating the images with clinical covariates (age, gender, and BMI), and explored whether adding clinical data improves diagnostic performance over the image mode alone. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for assessing the model performance.

RESULTS

As for classifying osteoporosis, the model based on the anteroposterior+lateral channel performed best, with the area under the curve (AUC) range from 0.909 to 0.937 in three test cohorts. The models with images alone achieved moderate sensitivity in classifying osteopenia, in which the highest AUC achieved 0.785. The performance of models integrating images with clinical data shows a slight improvement over models with anteroposterior or lateral images input alone for diagnosing osteoporosis, in which the AUC increased about 2%-4%. Regarding categorizing osteopenia and the normal BMD, the proposed models integrating images with clinical data also outperformed the models with images solely.

CONCLUSION

The deep learning-based approach could screen osteoporosis and osteopenia based on lumbar radiographs.

Association of Alcohol Intake and Fracture Risk in Elderly Varied by Affected Bones: A Nationwide Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies investigating association of alcohol intake and fracture risk in elderly yielded conflicting results. We first examined the association between alcohol intake and total fracture risk in elderly subjects and further analyzed whether the association varied by fracture locations.

METHODS

This is a nationwide population-based cohort study which included all people aged 66 (n=1,431,539) receiving the National Screening Program during 2009-2014. Time-to-event were defined as duration from study recruitment, the day they received health screening, to the occurrence of fracture.

RESULTS

Total fracture was significantly lower in mild drinkers [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=0.952; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) =0.931-0.973] and higher in heavy drinkers (aHR=1.246; 95% CI=1.201-1.294) than non-drinkers. Risk pattern of alcohol consumption and fracture differed according to affected bones. Similar J-shaped trends were observed for vertebra fractures, but risk of limb fracture showed a linear relationship with alcohol intake. For hip fracture, risk decrement was more pronounced in mild and moderate drinkers, and significant increment was noted only in very severe drinkers [≥60 g/day; (aHR)=1.446; 1.162-1.801].

CONCLUSION

Light to moderate drinking generally lowered risk of fractures, but association between alcohol and fracture risk varied depending on the affected bone lesions.

Number, Location, and Time Since Prior Fracture as Predictors of Future Fracture in the Elderly From the General Population

Prognostic tools are available to identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fracture and to assist physicians in management decisions. Some authors have suggested improving the predictive ability of these tools by integrating characteristics of prior fractures (number, location, and time since prior fracture). The objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the sex- and age-specific associations between characteristics of prior fractures and the occurrence of a future osteoporotic fracture; and (2) to assess whether the characteristics of prior fractures could increase the discriminative ability of fracture risk prediction tools. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using administrative data. Men and women aged ≥66 years were selected and grouped into two cohorts. In cohort #1 (N = 759,500), history of fractures was measured between fiscal years 1997-1998 and 2003-2004, and future fractures were identified between 2004-2005 and 2013-2014. In cohort #2 (N = 807,245), history of fractures was measured between 1997-1998 and 2008-2009, and future fractures were identified between 2009-2010 and 2013-2014. Time until a first hip/femur and major osteoporotic fracture were the outcomes of interest. Adjusted HRs and c-indices were calculated. The association between history of prior fractures and future fracture was stronger in men and younger individuals. The locations of prior fractures associated with the lowest and highest risks were foot/ankle/tibia/fibula (maximal HR = 1.64) and hip/femur (maximal HR = 9.02), respectively. The association was stronger for recent fractures (maximal HR = 4.93), but was still significant for fractures occurring 10 to 12 years prior to the beginning of follow-up (maximal HR = 1.99). Characteristics of prior fractures did not increase model discrimination. Our study confirms that the risk of future fracture increases with the number of prior fractures, varies according to prior fracture location, and decreases with time since prior fracture. However, the integration of these characteristics in current fracture risk prediction tools is not required because it does not improve predictive ability. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The epidemiology and economic burden of hip fractures in Israel

Background

Hip fractures increase the risks of mortality and major morbidity in the elderly. Hip fractures are associated with chronic pain, reduced mobility, disability and increasing dependence. We evaluated the direct costs incurred to the Israeli healthcare system in 2013 as a result of hip fracture injuries in elderly patients.

Methods

Hip fractures costs evaluation consisted of first-year and long-term direct costs. Data on the incidence of hip fractures resulting in hospitalizations were retrieved from the Israeli Ministry of Health’s (MOH) Central Database of Hospital Admissions. Hospitalization, rehabilitation and nursing utilization rates and costs were estimated based on the professional literature and according to the MOH’s price list.

Results

During 2013, 6285 elderly patients were hospitalized in Israel due to hip fractures. Direct costs of hip fracture, comprising hospitalization, rehabilitation and nursing costs incurred during the first year after the injury, were estimated at 454 million New Israeli Shekels (NIS; 83,841 NIS per person). Long-term nursing care costs in 2013 were 265 million NIS, with an average cost of approximately 49,000 NIS for 1600 elderly persons receiving long-term nursing care as a result of a hip fracture. Overall, the total direct costs of hip fracture in the elderly population in Israel in 2013 were 719 million NIS.

Conclusions

The direct costs of hip fractures in Israel among the elderly are approximately 719 million NIS per year. The majority of costs are associated with the first year following the injury. To reduce healthcare costs in Israel, changes in the country’s healthcare policy on hip fractures are required. For example, there is a need for a program for detecting high- risk populations, and for early intervention following the injury.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13584-018-0235-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Comprehensive geriatric assessment for identifying older people at risk of hip fracture: cross-sectional study with comparative group

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture (HF) is by far the most common serious fragility fracture. Its care is a major challenge to all healthcare systems.

AIM

To determine whether there are characteristics of older people identified via comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) that help identify those with an increased risk of HF.

METHODS

The demographic, functional, cognitive and nutritional data of a cohort of patients admitted for acute HF were compared with those of a population cohort representing community-dwelling older people in the same urban district without HF. Bivariate analysis was performed on the variables in both the complete samples and in a subsample of age and sex paired subjects, followed by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 509 HF patients and 1315 community-dwelling older people were included. The HF patients were older and more frequently women and had more frequent disability and cognitive impairment, lower handgrip strength, lower body mass index (BMI) and a higher frequency of vitamin D deficiency compared with the community controls (P < 0.001). The variables most strongly associated with the presence of HF in the multivariate analysis, aside from age and female sex, were BMI<22 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR) = 5.11], disability (OR = 4.32), muscle weakness (OR = 3.01), and vitamin D deficiency (OR = 2.13).

CONCLUSIONS

There are easily obtained CGA determinants that are strongly associated with fragility HF. The detection of low weight, disability, malnutrition, muscle weakness, and vitamin D deficiency can help identify at-risk older people to implement prevention strategies.

Risk factors for hip fracture in very old people: a population-based study

SUMMARY

Knowledge of risk factors for hip fracture among very old people is limited. Walking indoors with help from ≤1 person, Parkinson's disease, currently smoking, delirium in the previous month, underweight, and age were associated with increased risk of hip fracture and could be important for preventive strategy development.

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to investigate risk factors for hip fracture among a representative sample of very old people.

METHODS

In total, 953 participants from the Umeå 85+/Gerontological Regional Database population-based cohort study were interviewed and assessed during home visits. Associations of baseline characteristics with hip fracture during the maximum 5-year follow-up period were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Participants had a mean age of 89.3 ± 4.7 years; 65.8% were women, 36.8% lived in residential care facilities, 33.6% had dementia, and 20.4% had histories of hip fracture. During a mean follow-up period of 2.7 years, 96 (10.1%) individuals sustained hip fracture. Walking indoors with help from no more than one person (hazard ratio [HR] = 8.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-38.71), Parkinson's disease (HR = 5.12; 95% CI, 1.82-14.44), currently smoking (HR = 4.38; 95% CI 2.06-9.33), delirium in the previous month (HR = 2.01; 95% CI, 1.15-3.49), underweight (body mass index <22; HR = 1.74, 95% CI, 1.09-2.77), and age (HR = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.14) were associated independently with an increased risk of hip fracture. Hip prosthesis at baseline decreased the risk of hip fracture (HR = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.91), but only for those with bilateral hip prostheses.

CONCLUSIONS

Seven factors were associated independently with incident hip fracture during follow-up in this sample of very old people. These factors could have important clinical implications in identifying persons at high risk of hip fracture, as well as in the development of effective preventive strategies.