Performance of a clinical risk prediction model for inhibitor formation in severe haemophilia A

Predicting inhibitor development using a random peptide phage-display library approach in the SIPPET cohort

ABSTRACT

Inhibitor development is the most severe complication of hemophilia A (HA) care and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to use a novel immunoglobulin G epitope mapping method to explore the factor VIII (FVIII)-specific epitope profile in the SIPPET cohort population and to develop an epitope mapping-based inhibitor prediction model. The population consisted of 122 previously untreated patients with severe HA who were followed up for 50 days of exposure to FVIII or 3 years, whichever occurred first. Sampling was performed before FVIII treatment and at the end of the follow-up. The outcome was inhibitor development. The FVIII epitope repertoire was assessed by means of a novel random peptide phage-display assay. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and a random forest model were fitted on posttreatment sample data and validated in pretreatment sample data. The predictive performance of these models was assessed by the C-statistic and a calibration plot. We identified 27 775 peptides putatively directed against FVIII, which were used as input for the statistical models. The C-statistic of the LASSO and random forest models were good at 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.86) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.89). Model calibration of both models was moderately good. Two statistical models, developed on data from a novel random peptide phage display assay, were used to predict inhibitor development before exposure to exogenous FVIII. These models can be used to set up diagnostic tests that predict the risk of inhibitor development before starting treatment with FVIII.

Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison of Efficacy and Consumption of rVIII-SingleChain Versus Two Recombinant FVIII Products Used for Prophylactic Treatment of Adults/Adolescents with Severe Haemophilia A

Introduction

Given the relatively small number of patients with haemophilia A, head-to-head comparisons between recombinant FVIII (rFVIII) products are difficult to conduct. This study compared the efficacy and consumption of rVIII-SingleChain (lonoctocog alfa, AFSTYLA^®) with rAHF-PFM (octocog alfa, Advate^®) and rFVIIIFc (efmoroctocog alfa, Elocta^®), for the prophylaxis and treatment of bleeding episodes in previously treated adolescents/adults with severe haemophilia A, through a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC).

Methods

A systematic literature review identified published clinical trials for rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc. Individual patient data for rVIII-SingleChain were used to match baseline patient characteristics to those from published trials, using an approach similar to propensity score weighting. After matching, annualized bleeding rates (ABR), percentage of patients with zero bleeds, and rFVIII consumption were compared across trial populations.

Results

Published data were identified from two rAHF-PFM trials and one rFVIIIFc trial. rVIII-SingleChain had similar ABR (risk ratio [RR]: 0.74 [0.16; 3.48]; RR: 1.18 [0.85; 1.65]) and percentage of patients with zero bleeds (odds ratio [OR]: 1.34 [0.56; 3.22]; OR: 0.78 [0.47; 1.31]) versus rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc, respectively. Annual rVIII-SingleChain consumption was significantly lower than rAHF-PFM (mean difference: − 1507.66 IU/kg/year [− 2011.71; − 1003.61]) and equivalent to rFVIIIFc (RR: 0.96 [0.62; 1.49]).

Conclusion

Although limited to published information for comparator trials, these results suggest that with an annualized rFVIII consumption comparable to rFVIIIFc, but significantly lower than rAHF-PFM, routine prophylaxis with rVIII-SingleChain is able to maintain a similar ABR and percentage of patients with zero bleeds, attesting to the long-acting nature of rVIII-SingleChain.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12325-021-01853-0.

It is difficult to directly compare different recombinant FVIII products in head-to-head studies because there are few patients with haemophilia A. This study aimed to indirectly compare the efficacy and consumption of different recombinant FVIII products in the prophylactic treatment of haemophilia A using published clinical data. A proven method for performing indirect comparisons of products is referred to as a matching-adjusted indirect comparison. Using this approach, we were able to compare rVIII-SingleChain with two other recombinant FVIII products (rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc). Our results suggest that annual FVIII consumption with rVIII-SingleChain is comparable to rFVIIIFc, but is significantly lower than rAHF-PFM, while maintaining a similar bleeding rate. These results highlight the long-acting nature of the product.