Changing the balance of social care for older people: simulating scenarios under demographic ageing in New Zealand

Exploring older care recipients' sleep status as a predictor for informal carer distress: evidence from New Zealand's interRAI home care assessment data

OBJECTIVES

Understanding factors affecting informal carers' well-being is important to support healthy ageing at home. Sleep disturbances of care recipients are increasingly recognised as affecting the well-being of both parties. This research assesses the relationship between indicators of care recipients' sleep status and carer distress, as well as carer distress with subsequent admission to residential aged care, using prospectively collected Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI-HC) assessment data.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were sourced from 127 832 assessments conducted between 2012 and 2019 for people aged 55 years or older who had support from at least one informal carer. The majority (59.4%) of care recipients were female and 59.1% were defined as having cognitive impairment or dementia (CIoD).

SETTING

New Zealand.

DESIGN

Logistic regression modelling was used to assess the independent relationships between indicators of care recipients' sleep status (difficulty sleeping and fatigue) and primary caregivers' distress (feeling overwhelmed or distressed). Kaplan meier curves illustrated the subsequent relationship between caregiver distress and care recipients' transitions to aged residential care.

RESULTS

Care recipients' sleeping difficulty (32.4%) and moderate-severe fatigue (46.6%) were independently associated with caregiver distress after controlling for key demographic and health factors included in the assessment. Distress was reported by 39.9% of informal caregivers and was three times more likely among those supporting someone with a CIoD. Caregiver distress was significantly associated with care recipients' earlier admission into aged residential care.

CONCLUSIONS

Indicators of sleep disturbance among care recipients are associated with increased likelihood of carer distress. This has implications for managing the overall home-care situation and long-term care needs, as well as the well-being of both parties. Findings will inform research and development of measures, services and interventions to improve the sleep and waking health of older people, including those with CIoD and family caregivers.

Health equity and wellbeing among older people’s caregivers in New Zealand during COVID-19: Protocol for a qualitative study

Background

Knowledge of the challenges unpaid caregivers faced providing care to older people during the COVID-19 pandemic is limited. Challenges may be especially pronounced for those experiencing inequitable access to health and social care. This participatory action research study, located in New Zealand, has four main objectives, (i) to understand the challenges and rewards associated with caregiving to older care recipients during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions; (ii) to map and collate resources developed (or mobilised) by organisations during the pandemic; (iii) to co-produce policy recommendations, identify useful caregiver resources and practices, prioritise unmet needs (challenges); and, (iv) to use project results in knowledge translation, in order to improve caregivers access to resources, and raise the profile and recognition of caregivers contribution to society.

Methods and analysis

Māori, Pacific and rural-dwelling caregivers to 30 older care-recipients, and 30 representatives from organisations supporting caregivers in New Zealand will be interviewed. Combining data from the interviews and caregivers letters (from an archive of older people’s pandemic experiences), framework analysis will be used to examine the interrelated systems of the human ecological model and the impact on caregiving experiences during the pandemic. Resources that service providers had created or used for caregivers and older people will be collated and categorised. Through co-production with caregivers and community partners we will produce three short films describing caregivers’ pandemic experiences; identify a suite of resources for caregivers to use in future events requiring self-isolation, and in everyday life; and generate ideas to address unresolved issues.

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression

Objectives

to assess the effect of recent stalling of life expectancy and various scenarios for disability progression on projections of social care expenditure between 2018 and 2038, and the likelihood of reaching the Ageing Society Grand Challenge mission of five extra healthy, independent years at birth.

Design

two linked projections models: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model, updated to include 2018-based population projections.

Population

PACSim: about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the England population in 2014) created from three nationally representative longitudinal ageing studies.

Main outcome measures

Total social care expenditure (public and private) for older people, and men and women’s independent life expectancy at age 65 (IndLE65) under five scenarios of changing disability progression and recovery with and without lower life expectancy.

Results

between 2018 and 2038, total care expenditure was projected to increase by 94.1%–1.25% of GDP; men’s IndLE65 increasing by 14.7% (range 11.3–16.5%), exceeding the 8% equivalent of the increase in five healthy, independent years at birth, although women’s IndLE65 increased by only 4.7% (range 3.2–5.8%). A 10% reduction in disability progression and increase in recovery resulted in the lowest increase in total care expenditure and increases in both men’s and women’s IndLE65 exceeding 8%.

Conclusions

interventions that slow down disability progression, and improve recovery, could significantly reduce social care expenditure and meet government targets for increases in healthy, independent years.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults

Background

Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland.

Methods

We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health – Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982).

Results

Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026.

Conclusions

A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Ageing badly: indicators of old-age structure in Australia and New Zealand

INTRODUCTION Until 2050, Australia and New Zealand will experience continuing increase in the population aged >65 years. Studying differences in indicators of old-age structure between these countries can inform policymakers. AIM To calculate and analyse indicators of old-age structure for Australia and New Zealand. METHODS Five indicators of old-age structure were calculated: centenarian ratio (number of centenarians per 100,000 people), longevity index (proportion of people aged ≥90 and ≥65 years in the population), longevity level (proportion of 80+/60+ years population), ageing tendency (proportion of people aged ≥60 years in the population) and centenarity index (ratio between the centenarians and the total population ≥90 years). RESULTS All indicators of old-age structure demonstrated an advantageous ageing structure in Australia compared with New Zealand. In addition, the New Zealand Māori and Australian Aboriginal indicators of old-age structure demonstrated a significant disadvantage to these ethnic groups compared with the general population. DISCUSSION Public health policy needs to target ageing in New Zealand as a major goal in advancing the 'Ageing Well' policy advocated by the government.

Caregiving, ethnicity and gender in Māori and non-Māori New Zealanders of advanced age: Findings from LiLACS NZ Kaiāwhina (Love and Support) study

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates sex and ethnicity in relationships of care using data from Wave 4 of LiLACS NZ, a longitudinal study of Māori and non-Māori New Zealanders of advanced age.

METHODS

Informal primary carers for LiLACS NZ participants were interviewed about aspects of caregiving. Data were analysed by gender and ethnic group of the LiLACS NZ participant.

RESULTS

Carers were mostly adult children or partners, and three-quarters of them were women. Māori and men received more hours of care with a higher estimated dollar value of care. Māori men received the most personal care and household assistance. Carer employment, self-rated health, quality of life and impact of caring did not significantly relate to the gender and ethnicity of care recipients.

CONCLUSIONS

Gender and ethnicity are interwoven in caregiving and care receiving. Demographic differences and cultural expectations in both areas must be considered in policies for carer support.

Do household living arrangements explain gender and ethnicity differences in receipt of support services? Findings from LiLACS NZ Māori and non-Māori advanced age cohorts

Services providing practical support are a key component in the spectrum of social care assisting older people to age in place. Te Puāwaitanga o Ngā Tapuwae Kia Ora Tonu/Life and Living in Advanced Age: A Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ), a longitudinal study of Māori and non-Māori in advanced age, aims to determine predictors of successful ageing and to understand trajectories of health and wellbeing. This paper investigates whether household living arrangements (living alone or with others) might explain previously reported gender and ethnic differences in support service utilisation. We had shown that women and non-Māori received more services than men and Māori despite better health. The results of analyses in this paper show that, as expected, poorer physical function led to increased service use. After controlling for functional status, household living arrangements (living alone) were the next strongest driver of service use. In a fully adjusted model, previously observed differences around gender and ethnicity were no longer significant predictors of support service use. However, gender and ethnicity do shape living arrangements in advanced age. Women in advanced age are more likely to live alone, consequently needing more outside support, whereas men are more likely to have a spouse/partner able to provide care. Māori are more likely to live in multigenerational households, the care available at home meaning they are less likely to qualify for formal support. This study points to a need for understanding how gender and ethnicity interact with living arrangements and suggests that inequities may not be absent when the presence of others in a household renders an older person ineligible for formal care.

Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study

Background

Existing models for forecasting future care needs are limited in the risk factors included and in the assumptions made about incoming cohorts. We estimated the numbers of people aged 65 years or older in England and the years lived in older age requiring care at different intensities between 2015 and 2035 from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model.

Methods

PACSim, a dynamic microsimulation model, combined three studies (Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II) to simulate individuals' sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, 12 chronic diseases and geriatric conditions, and dependency (categorised as high [24-h care], medium [daily care], or low [less than daily] dependency; or independent). Transition probabilities for each characteristic were estimated by modelling state changes from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Years in dependency states were calculated by Sullivan's method.

Findings

Between 2015 and 2035 in England, both the prevalence of and numbers of people with dependency will fall for young-old adults (65–74 years). For very old adults (≥85 years), numbers with low dependency will increase by 148·0% (range from ten simulations 140·0–152·0) and with high dependency will almost double (increase of 91·8%, range 87·3–94·1) although prevalence will change little. Older adults with medium or high dependency and dementia will be more likely to have at least two other concurrent conditions (increasing from 58·8% in 2015 to 81·2% in 2035). Men aged 65 years will see a compression of dependency with 4·2 years (range 3·9–4·2) of independence gained compared with life expectancy gains of 3·5 years (3·1–4·1). Women aged 65 years will experience an expansion of mainly low dependency, with 3·0 years (3·0–3·6) gained in life expectancy compared with 1·4 years (1·2–1·4) with low dependency and 0·7 years (0·6–0·8) with high dependency.

Interpretation

In the next 20 years, the English population aged 65 years or over will see increases in the number of individuals who are independent but also in those with complex care needs. This increase is due to more individuals reaching 85 years or older who have higher levels of dependency, dementia, and comorbidity. Health and social care services must adapt to the complex care needs of an increasing older population.

Funding

UK Economic and Social Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research.