Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients 80 years old and over. A comparison with younger patients and risk factors analysis for in-hospital and delayed mortality

Prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients using a simplified risk score and comparison with AIMS65 score

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in older patients is associated with substantial in-hospital morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified risk score for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in this population.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 1899 UGIB patients aged ≥ 65 years admitted to a single medical center between January 2010 and December 2019. An additional cohort of 330 patients admitted from January 2020 to October 2021 was used for external validation. Variable selection was performed using five distinct methods, and models were generated using generalized linear models, random forest, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors approaches. The developed score, "ABCAP," incorporated Albumin < 30 g/L, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) > 7.5 mmol/L, Cancer presence, Altered mental status, and Pulse rate > 100/min, each assigned a score of 1. Internal and external validation procedures compared the ABCAP score with the AIMS65 score.

RESULTS

In internal validation, the ABCAP score demonstrated robust predictive capability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.824-0.932), which was significantly better than the AIMS65 score (AUC: 0.827, 95% CI: 0.751-0.904), as revealed by the DeLong test (p = 0.048). External validation of the ABCAP score resulted in an AUC of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.709-0.889), while the AIMS65 score yielded an AUC of 0.743 (95% CI: 0.647-0.838), with no significant difference between the two scores based on the DeLong test (p = 0.16). However, the ABCAP score at the 3-5 score level demonstrated superior performance in identifying high-risk patients compared to the AIMS65 score. This score exhibited consistent predictive accuracy across variceal and non-variceal UGIB subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABCAP score incorporates easily obtained clinical variables and demonstrates promising predictive ability for 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients. It allows effective mortality risk stratification and showed slightly better performance than the AIMS65 score. Further cohort validation is required to confirm generalizability.

Application of Antithrombotic Drugs in Different Age-Group Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Objective

This study aimed at exploring the safety and timing of antithrombotic drugs in different age-group patients with UGIB.

Methods

An observational study retrospectively based on the single-center database with 713 patients with UGIB.

Result

Among the 713 patients, 62.13% were elderly patients (aged > 60 years) and the mortality was 2.9%. In elderly patients with UGIB, we found that previous medication history, resumption of medication, and time of resumption did not affect the in-hospital mortality. The resumption of anticoagulants increased the risk of rebleeding. The independent risk factors of mortality were CHF, cirrhosis, creatine kinase, and albumin. The independent risk factors of rebleeding were the application of anticoagulants during hospitalization, variceal bleeding, black stool, red blood cells (lab), platelets (lab), and heart rate.

Conclusions

In UGIB patients, a history of antiplatelet or antithrombotic drugs and the use of antiplatelet drugs after UGIB did not affect the patient's prognosis. In elderly UGIB patients, although antithrombotic drugs did not increase the risk of death, the increased risk of rebleeding after resumption of use deserved careful treatment. It was safe to recover anticoagulant drugs as soon as possible in young UGIB patients.

Risk factors for massive gastrointestinal bleeding occurrence and mortality: A prospective single-center study

BACKGROUND

Massive gastrointestinal bleeding is a life-threatening condition without a well-established definition. We aimed to analyze the characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes of patients with massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

METHODS

Our study analyzed a prospective registry of patients admitted between 2013 and 2020 with variceal and non-variceal causes. Severe bleeding was defined as ongoing bleeding requiring transfusion of more than 2 units of packed red blood cells within 24 hours, accompanied by signs of shock. The main outcomes were 30-day and 6-month mortality, rebleeding within 7 days, persistent bleeding, and severe complications during admission.

RESULTS

Out of 1213 patients, 171 had massive gastrointestinal bleeding, with a predominance of males. The massive bleeding group had higher rates of chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, in-patient status, disseminated malignancy, alcoholism, and ASA score ≥3. All major outcomes, including 30-day mortality, 6-month mortality, rebleeding, persistent bleeding, and severe complications, were more common in the massive bleeding group. Multivariate logistic regression identified inpatient status, systemic diseases, malignancy, active bleeding in endoscopy, and severe complications as risk factors for massive bleeding and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Inpatient status and comorbidities, especially systemic diseases, and malignancies, were associated with a higher risk of massive bleeding. Mortality was linked to chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, severe comorbidities, and alcohol consumption. We observed increased 6-months mortality, probably related to a health status in which gastrointestinal bleeding heralded poor outcomes, some of them potentially preventable. Innovative healthcare interventions, such as Emergency Department-based intermediate care areas or Intensive Care Units, and multidisciplinary follow-up, could potentially improve survival.