Influence of racial differences on outcomes after thrombolytic therapy in acute ischemic stroke

Predictive model for the risk of hemorrhagic transformation after rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the risk prediction model of Hemorrhages Transformation (HT) after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS).

METHODS

Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, CNKI, CBM, WanFang, and VIP were searched from inception to February 25, 2023 for literature related to the risk prediction model for HT after thrombolysis in AIS.

RESULTS

A total of 17 included studies contained 26 prediction models, and the AUC of all models at the time of modeling ranged from 0.662 to 0.9854, 16 models had AUC>0.8, indicating that the models had good predictive performance. However, most of the included studies were at risk of bias. the results of the Meta-analysis showed that atrial fibrillation (OR=2.72, 95% CI:1.98-3.73), NIHSS score (OR=1.09, 95% CI:1.07-1.11), glucose (OR=1.12, 95% CI:1.06-1.18), moderate to severe leukoaraiosis (OR=3.47, 95% CI:1.61-7.52), hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign (OR=2.35, 95% CI:1.10-4.98), large cerebral infarction (OR=7.57, 95% CI:2.09-27.43), and early signs of infarction (OR=4.80, 95% CI:1.74-13.25) were effective predictors of HT after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of the models for HT after thrombolysis in patients with AIS in the Chinese population is good, but there is some risk of bias. Future post-intravenous HT conversion prediction models for AIS patients in the Chinese population should focus on predictors such as atrial fibrillation, NIHSS score, glucose, moderate to severe leukoaraiosis, hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, massive cerebral infarction, and early signs of infarction.

Thrombolysis experience in Costa Rica compared against individual patient data from two randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

We sought to compare thrombolysis outcomes from the Costa Rican Stroke Registry Program (CRSRP) with published individual patient data from NINDS and CLOTBUST-ER trials using matching and outcome modeling from randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective observational study matching subjects on baseline characteristics, from the CRSRP, the control arm of CLOTBUST-ER, and the interventional arm of NINDS trials. Day 7-10/discharge modified Rankin Score (mRS), and early mortality was compared between matched subjects. A mortality model derived from RCTs was developed, and outcomes were compared at similar baseline NIHSS scores. CRSRP symptomatic hemorrhage (SICH) rate was compared with an Ibero-American cohort (IAC).

RESULTS

Of 540 CRSRP patients, 351 received rt-PA under 3 hours and were matched with NINDS subjects yielding 292 pairs; 161 CRSRP subjects treated within 4.5 hours were matched with CLOTBUST-ER subjects resulting in 151 pairs. The proportion of patients achieving excellent outcomes (mRS 0-1) did not differ between CRSRP and either NINDS or CLOTBUST-ER (CRSRP vs NINDS: 36.6% vs 32.9%, p=0.3; CRSRP vs CLOTBUST-ER: 26.5% vs 24.5%, p=0.8). Mortality was higher for CRSRP vs CLOTBUST-ER (7.3% vs 0.7%, p=0.006), but not vs NINDS (6.5% vs 4.5%, p=0.4). A pooled mortality model derived from 15 RCTs representing 4410 patients (R²=0.39) showed CRSRP and NINDS within expected mortality, while CLOTBUST-ER showed lower than expected mortality. CRSRP SICH rate equaled IAC (5.7% vs 5.7%; p=0.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional outcomes and SICH of thrombolysed Costa Rican patients compared favorably with published datasets, with a potential increase in early mortality.

Risk Factors and a Nomogram for Predicting Intracranial Hemorrhage in Stroke Patients Undergoing Thrombolysis

PURPOSE

Identifying stroke patients at risk of postthrombolysis intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the clinical setting is essential. We aimed to develop and evaluate a nomogram for predicting the probability of ICH in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing thrombolysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted using data from 345 patients at a single center. The patients were randomly dichotomized into training (2/3; n=233) and validation (1/3; n=112) sets. A prediction model was developed by using a multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The nomogram comprised three variables: the presence of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio [OR]: 4.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.09-11.57), the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (OR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18) and the glucose level on admission (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram for the training and validation sets were 0.828 (0.753-0.903) and 0.801 (0.690-0.911), respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed good calibration in both the training and validation sets (P = 0.509 and P = 0.342, respectively). The calibration plot also demonstrated good agreement. A decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

We developed an easy-to-use nomogram model to predict ICH, and the nomogram may provide risk assessments for subsequent treatment in stroke patients undergoing thrombolysis.

Validation of the mSOAR and SOAR scores to predict early mortality in Chinese acute stroke patients

BACKGROUND

It is unclear in Chinese patients with acute stroke how the SOAR (stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, age, and prestrike modified Rankin) and mSOAR (modified-SOAR) scores performed in predicting discharge mortality and 3-month mortality. We aimed to validate the predictability of these scores in this cohort.

METHODS

Data from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) study was used to perform the mSOAR and SOAR scores for predicting the discharge and 3-month mortality in acute stroke patients.

RESULTS

A total of 11073 acute stroke patients were included in present study. The increased mSOAR and SOAR scores were closely related to higher death risk in acute stroke patients. For discharge mortality, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) of the mSOAR and SOAR scores were 0.784 (95% CI 0.761-0.807) and 0.722 (95% CI: 0.698-0.746). For 3-month mortality, they were 0.787 (95% CI: 0.771-0.803) and 0.704 (95% CI: 0.687-0.721), respectively. The mSOAR and SOAR scores showed significant correlation between the predicted and observed probabilities of discharge mortality (mSOAR: r = 0.945, P = 0.001; SOAR: r = 0.994, P<0.001) and 3-month mortality (mSOAR: r = 0.984, P<0.001; SOAR: r = 0.999; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The mSOAR score predicted reliably the risk of death in Chinese acute stroke patients.

Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System for Intravenous Tissue Plasminogen Activator Use in Asian Patients

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

As Chinese Asian populations have an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA), we aimed to design a rapid, clinically applicable risk scoring system to predict ICH and functional outcomes after IV tPA treatment in Asian ischemic stroke patients.

METHODS

From January 2009 to December 2012, consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients treated with IV tPA recruited from the Stroke Registry in Chang Gung Healthcare System (SRICHS) in Taiwan and the National University Hospital of Singapore (NUHS) acute stroke database were used to create and validate a scoring system. Nomogram was created for ICH and 3-month mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 932 patients were included in the study: 386 from SRICHS for the derivation of scoring system and 546 from NUHS to validate it. We used nomograms to assign weightage to the scoring system. The presence of atrial fibrillation, glucose level, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score were significantly associated with the risk of ICH. Age, NIHSS score, hyperlipidemia, and the presence of post-tPA ICH were significantly associated with mortality. The areas under the curve of derivation and validation cohorts were .663 and .662 for ICH, and .808 and .790 for mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The scoring system using nomograms can provide a fast, practical, and user-friendly tool that allows physicians to predict the risk of ICH and functional outcomes with IV tPA treatment in a clinical setting.