Finding Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models: A Semidefinite Programming-Based Approach

Mathematical programming tools for randomization purposes in small two-arm clinical trials: A case study with real data

Modern randomization methods in clinical trials are invariably adaptive, meaning that the assignment of the next subject to a treatment group uses the accumulated information in the trial. Some of the recent adaptive randomization methods use mathematical programming to construct attractive clinical trials that balance the group features, such as their sizes and covariate distributions of their subjects. We review some of these methods and compare their performance with common covariate-adaptive randomization methods for small clinical trials. We introduce an energy distance measure that compares the discrepancy between the two groups using the joint distribution of the subjects' covariates. This metric is more appealing than evaluating the discrepancy between the groups using their marginal covariate distributions. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of the mathematical programming methods under the new measure. In the supplementary material, we provide R codes to reproduce our study results and facilitate comparisons of different randomization procedures.

Optimal Design of Experiments for Liquid–Liquid Equilibria Characterization via Semidefinite Programming

Liquid–liquid equilibria (LLE) characterization is a task requiring considerable work and appreciable financial resources. Notable savings in time and effort can be achieved when the experimental plans use the methods of the optimal design of experiments that maximize the information obtained. To achieve this goal, a systematic optimization formulation based on Semidefinite Programming is proposed for finding optimal experimental designs for LLE studies carried out at constant pressure and temperature. The non-random two-liquid (NRTL) model is employed to represent species equilibria in both phases. This model, combined with mass balance relationships, provides a means of computing the sensitivities of the measurements to the parameters. To design the experiment, these sensitivities are calculated for a grid of candidate experiments in which initial mixture compositions are varied. The optimal design is found by maximizing criteria based on the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). Three optimality criteria (D-, A- and E-optimal) are exemplified. The approach is demonstrated for two ternary systems where different sets of parameters are to be estimated.

Optimal Designs for Multi-Response Nonlinear Regression Models With Several Factors via Semidefinite Programming

We use semi-definite programming (SDP) to find a variety of optimal designs for multiresponse linear models with multiple factors, and for the first time, extend the methodology to find optimal designs for multi-response nonlinear models and generalized linear models with multiple factors. We construct transformations that (i) facilitate improved formulation of the optimal design problems into SDP problems, (ii) enable us to extend SDP methodology to find optimal designs from linear models to nonlinear multi-response models with multiple factors and (iii) correct erroneously reported optimal designs in the literature caused by formulation issues. We also derive invariance properties of optimal designs and their dependence on the covariance matrix of the correlated errors, which are helpful for reducing the computation time for finding optimal designs. Our applications include finding A-, A _s -, c- and D-optimal designs for multi-response multi-factor polynomial models, locally c- and D-optimal designs for a bivariate E _max response model and for a bivariate Probit model useful in the biosciences.

Optimal Adaptive Designs with Inverse Ordinary Differential Equations

Many industrial and engineering applications are built on the basis of differential equations. In some cases, parameters of these equations are not known and are estimated from measurements leading to an inverse problem. Unlike many other papers, we suggest to construct new designs in the adaptive fashion 'on the go' using the A-optimality criterion. This approach is demonstrated on determination of optimal locations of measurements and temperature sensors in several engineering applications: (1) determination of the optimal location to measure the height of a hanging wire in order to estimate the sagging parameter with minimum variance (toy example), (2) adaptive determination of optimal locations of temperature sensors in a one-dimensional inverse heat transfer problem and (3) adaptive design in the framework of a one-dimensional diffusion problem when the solution is found numerically using the finite difference approach. In all these problems, statistical criteria for parameter identification and optimal design of experiments are applied. Statistical simulations confirm that estimates derived from the adaptive optimal design converge to the true parameter values with minimum sum of variances when the number of measurements increases. We deliberately chose technically uncomplicated industrial problems to transparently introduce principal ideas of statistical adaptive design.

Model-based optimal design of experiments - semidefinite and nonlinear programming formulations

We use mathematical programming tools, such as Semidefinite Programming (SDP) and Nonlinear Programming (NLP)-based formulations to find optimal designs for models used in chemistry and chemical engineering. In particular, we employ local design-based setups in linear models and a Bayesian setup in nonlinear models to find optimal designs. In the latter case, Gaussian Quadrature Formulas (GQFs) are used to evaluate the optimality criterion averaged over the prior distribution for the model parameters. Mathematical programming techniques are then applied to solve the optimization problems. Because such methods require the design space be discretized, we also evaluate the impact of the discretization scheme on the generated design. We demonstrate the techniques for finding D-, A- and E-optimal designs using design problems in biochemical engineering and show the method can also be directly applied to tackle additional issues, such as heteroscedasticity in the model. Our results show that the NLP formulation produces highly efficient D-optimal designs but is computationally less efficient than that required for the SDP formulation. The efficiencies of the generated designs from the two methods are generally very close and so we recommend the SDP formulation in practice.

Using blocked fractional factorial designs to construct discrete choice experiments for healthcare studies

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used for studying and quantifying subjects preferences in a wide variety of healthcare applications. They provide a rich source of data to assess real-life decision-making processes, which involve trade-offs between desirable characteristics pertaining to health and healthcare and identification of key attributes affecting healthcare. The choice of the design for a DCE is critical because it determines which attributes' effects and their interactions are identifiable. We apply blocked fractional factorial designs to construct DCEs and address some identification issues by utilizing the known structure of blocked fractional factorial designs. Our design techniques can be applied to several situations including DCEs where attributes have different number of levels. We demonstrate our design methodology using two healthcare studies to evaluate (i) asthma patients' preferences for symptom-based outcome measures and (ii) patient preference for breast screening services. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.