Do model-based phylogenetic analyses perform better than parsimony? A test with empirical data

Embracing uncertainty: The way forward in plant fossil phylogenetics

Although molecular phylogenetics remains the most widely used method of inferring the evolutionary history of living groups, the last decade has seen a renewed interest in morphological phylogenetics, mostly driven by the promises that integrating the fossil record in phylogenetic trees offers to our understanding of macroevolutionary processes and dynamics and the possibility that the inclusion of fossil taxa could lead to more accurate phylogenetic hypotheses. The plant fossil record presents some challenges to its integration in a phylogenetic framework. Phylogenies including plant fossils often retrieve uncertain relationships with low support, or lack of resolution. This low support is due to the pervasiveness of morphological convergence among plant organs and the fragmentary nature of many plant fossils, and it is often perceived as a fundamental weakness reducing the utility of plant fossils in phylogenetics. Here I discuss the importance of uncertainty in morphological phylogenetics and how we can identify important information from different patterns and types of uncertainty. I also review a set of methodologies that can allow us to understand the causes underpinning uncertainty and how these practices can help us to further our knowledge of plant fossils. I also propose that a new visual language, including the use of networks instead of trees, represents an improvement on the old visualization based on consensus trees and more adequately serves phylogeneticists working with plant fossils. This set of methods and visualization tools represents an important way forward in a fundamental field for our understanding of the evolutionary history of plants.

Phylogenetic Inference and the Misplaced Premise of Substitution Rates

Three competing 'methods' have been endorsed for inferring phylogenetic hypotheses: parsimony, likelihood, and Bayesianism. The latter two have been claimed superior because they take into account rates of sequence substitution. Can rates of substitution be justified on its own accord in inferences of explanatory hypotheses? Answering this question requires addressing four issues: (1) the aim of scientific inquiry, (2) the nature of why-questions, (3) explanatory hypotheses as answers to why-questions, and (4) acknowledging that neither parsimony, likelihood, nor Bayesianism are inferential actions leading to explanatory hypotheses. The aim of scientific inquiry is to acquire causal understanding of effects. Observation statements of organismal characters lead to implicit or explicit why-questions. Those questions, conveyed in data matrices, assume the truth of observation statements, which is contrary to subsequently invoking substitution rates within inferences to phylogenetic hypotheses. Inferences of explanatory hypotheses are abductive in form, such that some version of an evolutionary theory(ies) is/are included or implied. If rates of sequence evolution are to be considered, it must be done prior to, rather than within abduction, which requires renaming those putatively-shared nucleotides subject to substitution rates. There are, however, no epistemic grounds for renaming characters to accommodate rates, calling into question the legitimacy of causally accounting for sequence data.

Fundamental evolution of all Orthocoronavirinae including three deadly lineages descendent from Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in humans in 2002. Despite reports showing Chiroptera as the original animal reservoir of SARS-CoV, many argue that Carnivora-hosted viruses are the most likely origin. The emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 also involves Chiroptera-hosted lineages. However, factors such as the lack of comprehensive phylogenies hamper our understanding of host shifts once MERS-CoV emerged in humans and Artiodactyla. Since 2019, the origin of SARS-CoV-2, causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), added to this episodic history of zoonotic transmission events. Here we introduce a phylogenetic analysis of 2006 unique and complete genomes of different lineages of Orthocoronavirinae. We used gene annotations to align orthologous sequences for total evidence analysis under the parsimony optimality criterion. Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus were set as outgroups to understand spillovers of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus among ten orders of animals. We corroborated that Chiroptera-hosted viruses are the sister group of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-related viruses. Other zoonotic events were qualified and quantified to provide a comprehensive picture of the risk of coronavirus emergence among humans. Finally, we used a 250 SARS-CoV-2 genomes dataset to elucidate the phylogenetic relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses.

Who's who in Magelona: phylogenetic hypotheses under Magelonidae Cunningham & Ramage, 1888 (Annelida: Polychaeta)

Known as shovel head worms, members of Magelonidae comprise a group of polychaetes readily recognised by the uniquely shaped, dorso-ventrally flattened prostomium and paired ventro-laterally inserted papillated palps. The present study is the first published account of inferences of phylogenetic hypotheses within Magelonidae. Members of 72 species of Magelona and two species of Octomagelona were included, with outgroups including members of one species of Chaetopteridae and four of Spionidae. The phylogenetic inferences were performed to causally account for 176 characters distributed among 79 subjects, and produced 2,417,600 cladograms, each with 404 steps. A formal definition of Magelonidae is provided, represented by a composite phylogenetic hypothesis explaining seven synapomorphies: shovel-shaped prostomium, prostomial ridges, absence of nuchal organs, ventral insertion of palps and their papillation, presence of a burrowing organ, and unique body regionation. Octomagelona is synonymised with Magelona due to the latter being paraphyletic relative to the former. The consequence is that Magelonidae is monotypic, such that Magelona cannot be formally defined as associated with any phylogenetic hypotheses. As such, the latter name is an empirically empty placeholder, but because of the binomial name requirement mandated by the International Code of Zoological Nomenclature, the definition is identical to that of Magelonidae. Several key features for future descriptions are suggested: prostomial dimensions, presence/absence of prostomial horns, morphology of anterior lamellae, presence/absence of specialised chaetae, and lateral abdominal pouches. Additionally, great care must be taken to fully describe and illustrate all thoracic chaetigers in descriptions.

Total evidence and sensitivity phylogenetic analyses of egg-brooding frogs (Anura: Hemiphractidae)

We study the phylogenetic relationships of egg-brooding frogs, a group of 118 neotropical species, unique among anurans by having embryos with large bell-shaped gills and females carrying their eggs on the dorsum, exposed or inside a pouch. We assembled a total evidence dataset of published and newly generated data containing 51 phenotypic characters and DNA sequences of 20 loci for 143 hemiphractids and 127 outgroup terminals. We performed six analytical strategies combining different optimality criteria (parsimony and maximum likelihood), alignment methods (tree- and similarity-alignment), and three different indel coding schemes (fifth character state, unknown nucleotide, and presence/absence characters matrix). Furthermore, we analyzed a subset of the total evidence dataset to evaluate the impact of phenotypic characters on hemiphractid phylogenetic relationships. Our main results include: (i) monophyly of Hemiphractidae and its six genera for all our analyses, novel relationships among hemiphractid genera, and non-monophyly of Hemiphractinae according to our preferred phylogenetic hypothesis; (ii) non-monophyly of current supraspecific taxonomies of Gastrotheca, an updated taxonomy is provided; (iii) previous differences among studies were mainly caused by differences in analytical factors, not by differences in character/taxon sampling; (iv) optimality criteria, alignment method, and indel coding caused differences among optimal topologies, in that order of degree; (v) in most cases, parsimony analyses are more sensitive to the addition of phenotypic data than maximum likelihood analyses; (vi) adding phenotypic data resulted in an increase of shared clades for most analyses.

Assessing topological congruence among concatenation-based phylogenomic approaches in empirical datasets

Assessing the effect of methodological decisions on the resulting hypotheses is critical in phylogenetics. Recent studies have focused on evaluating how model selection, orthology definition and confounding factors affect phylogenomic results. Here, we compare the results of three concatenated phylogenetic methods (Maximum Likelihood, ML; Bayesian Inference, BI; Maximum Parsimony, MP) in 157 empirical phylogenomic datasets. The resulting trees were very similar, with 96.7% of all nodes shared between BI and ML (90.6% for ML-MP and 89.1% for BI-MP). Differing nodes were predominantly those of lower support. The main conclusions of most of the studies agreed for the three phylogenetic methods and the discordance involved nodes considered as recalcitrant problems in systematics. The differences between methods were proportionally larger in datasets that analyze the relationships at higher taxonomic levels (particularly phyla and kingdoms), and independent of the number of characters included in the datasets. Note: a spanish version of this article is available in the Supplementary material (Supplementary material online).

Squaring within the Colless index yields a better balance index

The Colless index for bifurcating phylogenetic trees, introduced by Colless (1982), is defined as the sum, over all internal nodes v of the tree, of the absolute value of the difference of the sizes of the clades defined by the children of v. It is one of the most popular phylogenetic balance indices, because, in addition to measuring the balance of a tree in a very simple and intuitive way, it turns out to be one of the most powerful and discriminating phylogenetic shape indices. But it has some drawbacks. On the one hand, although its minimum value is reached at the so-called maximally balanced trees, it is almost always reached also at trees that are not maximally balanced. On the other hand, its definition as a sum of absolute values of differences makes it difficult to study analytically its distribution under probabilistic models of bifurcating phylogenetic trees. In this paper we show that if we replace in its definition the absolute values of the differences of clade sizes by the squares of these differences, all these drawbacks are overcome and the resulting index is still more powerful and discriminating than the original Colless index.

Exploring the impact of morphology, multiple sequence alignment and choice of optimality criteria in phylogenetic inference: a case study with the Neotropical orb-weaving spider genus Wagneriana (Araneae: Araneidae)

We present a total evidence phylogenetic analysis of the Neotropical orb-weaving spider genus Wagneriana and discuss the phylogenetic impacts of methodological choices. We analysed 167 phenotypic characters and nine loci scored for 115 Wagneriana and outgroups, including 46 newly sequenced species. We compared total evidence analyses and molecular-only analyses to evaluate the impact of phenotypic evidence, and we performed analyses using the programs POY, TNT, RAxML, GARLI, IQ-TREE and MrBayes to evaluate the effects of multiple sequence alignment and optimality criteria. In all analyses, Wagneriana carimagua and Wagneriana uropygialis were nested in the genera Parawixia and Alpaida, respectively, and the remaining species of Wagneriana fell into three main clades, none of which formed a pair of sister taxa. However, sister-group relationships among the main clades and their internal relationships were strongly influenced by methodological choices. Alignment methods had comparable topological effects to those of optimality criteria in terms of ‘subtree pruning and regrafting’ moves. The inclusion of phenotypic evidence, 2.80–3.05% of the total evidence matrices, increased support irrespective of the optimality criterion used. The monophyly of some groups was recovered only after the addition of morphological characters. A new araneid genus, Popperaneus gen. nov., is erected, and Paraverrucosa is resurrected. Four new synonymies and seven new combinations are proposed.

How deep is the conflict between molecular and fossil evidence on the age of angiosperms?

The timing of the origin of angiosperms is a hotly debated topic in plant evolution. Molecular dating analyses that consistently retrieve pre-Cretaceous ages for crown-group angiosperms have eroded confidence in the fossil record, which indicates a radiation and possibly also origin in the Early Cretaceous. Here, we evaluate paleobotanical evidence on the age of the angiosperms, showing how fossils provide crucial data for clarifying the situation. Pollen floras document a Northern Gondwanan appearance of monosulcate angiosperms in the Valanginian and subsequent poleward spread of monosulcates and tricolpate eudicots, accelerating in the Albian. The sequence of pollen types agrees with molecular phylogenetic inferences on the course of pollen evolution, but it conflicts strongly with Triassic and early Jurassic molecular ages, and the discrepancy is difficult to explain by geographic or taphonomic biases. Critical scrutiny shows that supposed pre-Cretaceous angiosperms either represent other plant groups or lack features that might confidently assign them to the angiosperms. However, the record may allow the Late Jurassic existence of ecologically restricted angiosperms, like those seen in the basal ANITA grade. Finally, we examine recently recognized biases in molecular dating and argue that a thoughtful integration of fossil and molecular evidence could help resolve these conflicts.

Missing data, clade support and "reticulation": the molecular systematics of Heliconius and related genera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) re-examined

Kozak et al. (2015, Syst. Biol., 64: 505) portrayed the inference of evolutionary history among Heliconius and allied butterfly genera as a particularly difficult problem for systematics due to prevalent gene conflict caused by interspecific reticulation. To control for this, Kozak et al. conducted a series of multispecies coalescent phylogenetic analyses that they claimed revealed pervasive conflict among markers, but ultimately chose as their preferred hypothesis a phylogenetic tree generated by the traditional supermatrix approach. Intrigued by this seemingly contradictory set of conclusions, we conducted further analyses focusing on two prevalent aspects of the data set: missing data and the uneven contribution of phylogenetic signal among markers. Here, we demonstrate that Kozak et al. overstated their findings of reticulation and that evidence of gene-tree conflict is largely lacking. The distribution of intrinsic homoplasy and incongruence homoplasy in their data set does not follow the pattern expected if phylogenetic history had been obscured by pervasive horizontal gene flow; in fact, noise within individual gene partitions is ten times higher than the incongruence among gene partitions. We show that the patterns explained by Kozak et al. as a result of reticulation can be accounted for by missing data and homoplasy. We also find that although the preferred topology is resilient to missing data, measures of support are sensitive to, and strongly eroded by too many empty cells in the data matrix. Perhaps more importantly, we show that when some taxa are missing almost all characters, adding more genes to the data set provides little or no increase in support for the tree.

Early Gnathostome Phylogeny Revisited: Multiple Method Consensus

A series of recent studies recovered consistent phylogenetic scenarios of jawed vertebrates, such as the paraphyly of placoderms with respect to crown gnathostomes, and antiarchs as the sister group of all other jawed vertebrates. However, some of the phylogenetic relationships within the group have remained controversial, such as the positions of Entelognathus, ptyctodontids, and the Guiyu-lineage that comprises Guiyu, Psarolepis and Achoania. The revision of the dataset in a recent study reveals a modified phylogenetic hypothesis, which shows that some of these phylogenetic conflicts were sourced from a few inadvertent miscodings. The interrelationships of early gnathostomes are addressed based on a combined new dataset with 103 taxa and 335 characters, which is the most comprehensive morphological dataset constructed to date. This dataset is investigated in a phylogenetic context using maximum parsimony (MP), Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches in an attempt to explore the consensus and incongruence between the hypotheses of early gnathostome interrelationships recovered from different methods. Our findings consistently corroborate the paraphyly of placoderms, all 'acanthodians' as a paraphyletic stem group of chondrichthyans, Entelognathus as a stem gnathostome, and the Guiyu-lineage as stem sarcopterygians. The incongruence using different methods is less significant than the consensus, and mainly relates to the positions of the placoderm Wuttagoonaspis, the stem chondrichthyan Ramirosuarezia, and the stem osteichthyan Lophosteus-the taxa that are either poorly known or highly specialized in character complement. Given that the different performances of each phylogenetic approach, our study provides an empirical case that the multiple phylogenetic analyses of morphological data are mutually complementary rather than redundant.

The relationships of the Euparkeriidae and the rise of Archosauria

For the first time, a phylogenetic analysis including all putative euparkeriid taxa is conducted, using a large data matrix analysed with maximum parsimony and Bayesian analysis. Using parsimony, the putative euparkeriid Dorosuchus neoetus from Russia is the sister taxon to Archosauria + Phytosauria. Euparkeria capensis is placed one node further from the crown, and forms a euparkeriid clade with the Chinese taxa Halazhaisuchus qiaoensis and 'Turfanosuchus shageduensis' and the Polish taxon Osmolskina czatkowicensis. Using Bayesian methods, Osmolskina and Halazhaisuchus are sister taxa within Euparkeriidae, in turn sister to 'Turfanosuchus shageduensis' and then Euparkeria capensis. Dorosuchus is placed in a polytomy with Euparkeriidae and Archosauria + Phytosauria. Although conclusions remain tentative owing to low node support and incompleteness, a broad phylogenetic position close to the base of Archosauria is confirmed for all putative euparkeriids, and the ancestor of Archosauria +Phytosauria is optimized as similar to euparkeriids in its morphology. Ecomorphological characters and traits are optimized onto the maximum parsimony strict consensus phylogeny presented using squared change parsimony. This optimization indicates that the ancestral archosaur was probably similar in many respects to euparkeriids, being relatively small, terrestrial, carnivorous and showing relatively cursorial limb morphology; this Bauplan may have underlain the exceptional radiaton and success of crown Archosauria.

Analysis of plastid and nuclear DNA data in plant phylogenetics-evaluation and improvement

Correct combination of plastid (cp) and nuclear (nr) DNA data for plant phylogenetic reconstructions is not a new issue, but with an increasing number of nrDNA loci being used, it is of ever greater practical concern. For accurately reconstructing the phylogeny and evolutionary history of plant groups, correct treatment of phylogenetic incongruence is a vital step in the proper analysis of cpDNA and nrDNA data. We first evaluated the current status of analyzing cpDNA and nrDNA data by searching all articles published in the journal Systematic Botany between 2005 and 2011. Many studies combining cpDNA and nrDNA data did not rigorously assess the combinability of the data sets, or did not address in detail possible reasons for incongruence between the two data sets. By reviewing various methods, we outline a procedure to more accurately analyze and/or combine cpDNA and nrDNA data, which includes four steps: identifying significant incongruence, determining conflicting taxa, providing possible interpretations for incongruence, and reconstructing the phylogeny after treating incongruence. Particular attention is given to explanation of the cause of incongruence. We hope that our procedure will help raise awareness of the importance of rigorous analysis and help identify the cause of incongruence before combining cpDNA and nrDNA data.

Half of the European fruit fly species barcoded (Diptera, Tephritidae); a feasibility test for molecular identification

A FEASIBILITY TEST OF MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION OF EUROPEAN FRUIT FLIES (DIPTERA: Tephritidae) based on COI barcode sequences has been executed. A dataset containing 555 sequences of 135 ingroup species from three subfamilies and 42 genera and one single outgroup species has been analysed. 73.3% of all included species could be identified based on their COI barcode gene, based on similarity and distances. The low success rate is caused by singletons as well as some problematic groups: several species groups within the genus Terellia and especially the genus Urophora. With slightly more than 100 sequences - almost 20% of the total - this genus alone constitutes the larger part of the failure for molecular identification for this dataset. Deleting the singletons and Urophora results in a success-rate of 87.1% of all queries and 93.23% of the not discarded queries as correctly identified. Urophora is of special interest due to its economic importance as beneficial species for weed control, therefore it is desirable to have alternative markers for molecular identification. We demonstrate that the success of DNA barcoding for identification purposes strongly depends on the contents of the database used to BLAST against. Especially the necessity of including multiple specimens per species of geographically distinct populations and different ecologies for the understanding of the intra- versus interspecific variation is demonstrated. Furthermore thresholds and the distinction between true and false positives and negatives should not only be used to increase the reliability of the success of molecular identification but also to point out problematic groups, which should then be flagged in the reference database suggesting alternative methods for identification.

Does better taxon sampling help? A new phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha) based on 50 new taxa and the same old mitochondrial and nuclear markers

We here present a phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha), a group of schizophoran flies with ca. 320 described species that is widely used in sexual selection research. The hypothesis is based on five nuclear and five mitochondrial markers totaling 8813 bp for ca. 30% of the diversity (105 sepsid taxa) and - depending on analysis - six or nine outgroup species. Maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayesian inferences (BI) yield overall congruent, well-resolved, and supported trees that are largely unaffected by three different ways to partition the data in BI and ML analyses. However, there are also five areas of uncertainty that affect suprageneric relationships where different analyses yield alternate topologies and MP and ML trees have significant conflict according to Shimodaira-Hasegawa tests. Two of these were already affected by conflict in a previous analysis that was based on the same genes and a subset of 69 species. The remaining three involve newly added taxa or genera whose relationships were previously resolved with low support. We thus find that the denser taxon sample in the present analysis does not reduce the topological conflict that had been identified previously. The present study nevertheless presents a significant contribution to the understanding of sepsid relationships in that 50 additional taxa from 18 genera are added to the Tree-of-Life of Sepsidae and that the placement of most taxa is well supported and robust to different tree reconstruction techniques.

Using multiple analytical methods to improve phylogenetic hypotheses in Minaria (Apocynaceae)

Metastelmatinae is a neotropical subtribe of Asclepiadoideae (Apocynaceae), comprising 13 genera and around 260 species whose phylogenetic relationships are often unresolved or incongruent between plastid and nuclear datasets. The genus Minaria is one of the first lineages to emerge in the Metastelmatinae and is highly supported based on plastid markers. It comprises 21 species, most of which are endemic to small areas with open vegetation in the Espinhaço Range, Brazil. In the work presented here, we use plastid (rps16, trnH-psbA, trnS-trnG, and trnD-trnT) and nuclear (ITS and ETS) datasets to investigate the relationships within Minaria. We show that the three methods mostly used in phylogenetic studies, namely, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian Inference, have different performances and that a pluralistic analytical approach combining results from them can increase tree resolution and clade confidence, providing valuable phylogenetic information.