Possible causes of decreasing migratory ungulate populations in an East African savannah after restrictions in their seasonal movements

The contribution of community-based conservation models to conserving large herbivore populations

In East Africa, community-based conservation models (CBCMs) have been established to support the conservation of wildlife in fragmented landscapes like the Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania. To assess how different management approaches maintained large herbivore populations, we conducted line distance surveys and estimated seasonal densities of elephant, giraffe, zebra, and wildebeest in six management units, including three CBCMs, two national parks (positive controls), and one area with little conservation interventions (negative control). Using a Monte-Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties from the density estimates and trend analysis, we analyzed the resulting time series (2011-2019). Densities of the target species were consistently low in the site with little conservation interventions. In contrast, densities of zebra and wildebeest in CBCMs were similar to national parks, providing evidence that CBCMs contributed to the stabilization of these migratory populations in the central part of the ecosystem. CBCMs also supported giraffe and elephant densities similar to those found in national parks. In contrast, the functional connectivity of Lake Manyara National Park has not been augmented by CBCMs. Our analysis suggests that CBCMs can effectively conserve large herbivores, and that maintaining connectivity through CBCMs should be prioritized.

Long-term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case-study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long-term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect-based long-term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik-dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17-year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross-species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17-year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti-poaching efforts, spatio-temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long-term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.

Habitat choices of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) and plains zebra (Equus quagga) in a heterogeneous protected area

Abstract ContextAn understanding of large herbivore habitat choices in heterogeneous African protected areas is important for the better management of these key ecosystems. AimsTo determine habitat use of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) and plains zebra (Equus quagga) in a heterogeneous protected area. MethodsZambezi National Park (ZNP), Zimbabwe, was divided into five vegetation types using an unsupervised classification on a Landsat satellite image that was classified into five land cover classes, using the K-means classification algorithm. African buffalo and plains zebra densities were then determined in each vegetation type using road transect surveys monthly between January 2013 and December 2015. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), grass biomass, grass height and grass quality (nitrogen, calcium, phosphorus and acid detergent fibre content) were determined in each vegetation type during the wet (November to April) and dry (August to October) seasons to establish their quality as habitats for African buffalo and plains zebra. Key resultsBoth African buffalo and plains zebra mostly foraged in mixed and grassland areas, and avoided Zambezi teak vegetation type. Zambezi teak vegetation type had high NDVI due to the dense tree cover. Both African buffalo and plains zebra preferred vegetation types with intermediate grass biomass (approximately 300gm−2) and grass height (approximately 16cm). Grass nutritive value (in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus and acid detergent fibre) declined from wet to dry season in all vegetation types. ConclusionsAfrican buffalo and plains zebra in the ZNP confined their habitat use mostly to two vegetation types (mixed and grassland), which together covered 25% of the protected area. ImplicationsTeak (Baikiaea plurijuga) vegetation, which accounted for about 60% of the ZNP, was avoided by both African buffalo and plains zebra, suggesting that a significant part of the protected area was not used by the two herbivores.

Community-based wildlife management area supports similar mammal species richness and densities compared to a national park

Community-based conservation models have been widely implemented across Africa to improve wildlife conservation and livelihoods of rural communities. In Tanzania, communities can set aside land and formally register it as Wildlife Management Area (WMA), which allows them to generate revenue via consumptive or nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife. The key, yet often untested, assumption of this model is that economic benefits accrued from wildlife motivate sustainable management of wildlife. To test the ecological effectiveness (here defined as persistence of wildlife populations) of Burunge Wildlife Management Area (BWMA), we employed a participatory monitoring approach involving WMA personnel. At intermittent intervals between 2011 and 2018, we estimated mammal species richness and population densities of ten mammal species (African elephant, giraffe, buffalo, zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, warthog, impala, Kirk's dik-dik, and vervet monkey) along line transects. We compared mammal species accumulation curves and density estimates with those of time-matched road transect surveys conducted in adjacent Tarangire National Park (TNP). Mammal species richness estimates were similar in both areas, yet observed species richness per transect was greater in TNP compared to BWMA. Species-specific density estimates of time-matched surveys were mostly not significantly different between BWMA and TNP, but elephants occasionally reached greater densities in TNP compared to BWMA. In BWMA, elephant, wildebeest, and impala populations showed significant increases from 2011 to 2018. These results suggest that community-based conservation models can support mammal communities and densities that are similar to national park baselines. In light of the ecological success of this case study, we emphasize the need for continued efforts to ensure that the BWMA is effective. This will require adaptive management to counteract potential negative repercussions of wildlife populations on peoples' livelihoods. This study can be used as a model to evaluate the effectiveness of wildlife management areas across Tanzania.

Connectivity and bottlenecks in a migratory wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus population

Surprisingly little is known about the spatial dimensions of most tropical ungulate migrations, including that of wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus, a species famous for long-distance movements. Using non-invasive photographic identification of 834 adult wildebeest from 8,530 images collected over 4 years we characterize patterns of migratory connectivity throughout the northern Tarangire–Manyara Ecosystem, Tanzania. We document movements between Tarangire and Lake Manyara National Parks and northwards to the shore of Lake Natron, a straight-line distance of > 130 km. Fifty-six percent of observed movements occur outside the ecosystem's three main protected areas. We supplement photographic data with fine-scale movement data from two individuals with global positioning system collars, and identify three narrow bottlenecks, each vulnerable to human development. We discuss the possible consequences for the wildebeest population if these bottlenecks become impeded. Persistence of this migration alongside a growing human population and proposed road improvement will require additional measures to ensure that pathways remain open to wildlife movement and protected from illegal hunting.

A migratory northern ungulate in the pursuit of spring: jumping or surfing the green wave?

The forage-maturation hypothesis (FMH) states that herbivores migrate along a phenological gradient of plant development in order to maximize energy intake. Despite strong support for the FMH, the actual relationship between plant phenology and ungulate movement has remained enigmatic. We linked plant phenology (MODIS-normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] data) and space use of 167 migratory and 78 resident red deer (Cervus elaphus), using a space-time-time matrix of "springness," defined as the instantaneous rate of green-up. Consistent with the FMH, migrants experienced substantially greater access to early plant phenology than did residents. Deer were also more likely to migrate in areas where migration led to greater gains in springness. Rather than "surfing the green wave" during migration, migratory red deer moved rapidly from the winter to the summer range, thereby "jumping the green wave." However, migrants and, to a lesser degree, residents did track phenological green-up through parts of the growing season by making smaller-scale adjustments in habitat use. Despite pronounced differences in their life histories, we found only marginal differences between male and female red deer in this study. Those differences that we did detect pointed toward additional constraints on female space-use tactics, such as those posed by calving and caring for dependent offspring. We conclude that whereas in some systems migration itself is a way to surf the green wave, in others it may simply be a means to reconnect with phenological spring at the summer range. In the light of ubiquitous anthropogenic environmental change, understanding the relationship between the green wave and ungulate space use has important consequences for the management and conservation of migratory ungulates and the phenomenon of migration itself.