Age threshold for endoscopy and risk of missing upper gastrointestinal malignancy--data from the Scottish audit of gastric and oesophageal cancer

A Simple Pre-endoscopy Score for Predicting Risk of Malignancy in Patients with Dyspepsia: A 5-Year Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

The guidelines for performing endoscopy in dyspeptic patients based on clinical parameters alone have shown variable performance, and there is a need for better prediction tools.

AIM

We aimed to prospectively develop and validate a simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based scoring model to identify dyspeptic patients with high risk of upper gastrointestinal malignancy (UGIM).

METHODS

Adult patients with dyspeptic symptoms were prospectively recruited over 5 years. Clinical details including alarm features were recorded, and blood tests for hemoglobin and albumin were done before endoscopy. The presence of UGIM was the primary outcome. Risk factors for UGIM were assessed, and based on the OR of significant factors, a predictive scoring model was constructed. ROC curve was plotted to identify optimal cutoff score. The model was validated using bootstrapping technique.

RESULTS

The study included 2324 patients (41.9 ± 12.8 years; 33.4% females). UGIM was noted in 6.8% patients. The final model had following five positive predictors for UGIM-age > 40 years (OR 3.3, score 1); albumin ≤ 3.5 g% (OR 3.4, score 1); Hb ≤ 11 g% (OR 3.3, score 1); alarm features (OR 5.98, score 2); recent onset of symptoms (OR 8.7, score 3). ROC curve had an impressive AUC of 0.9 (0.88-0.93), and a score of 2 had 92.5% sensitivity in predicting UGIM. Validation by bootstrapping showed zero bias, which further strengthened our model.

CONCLUSION

This simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based model performed very well in identifying dyspeptic patients at risk of UGIM. This can serve as a useful decision-making tool for referral for endoscopy.

Cost of detecting malignant lesions by endoscopy in 2741 primary care dyspeptic patients without alarm symptoms

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Current guidelines recommend empirical, noninvasive approaches to manage dyspeptic patients without alarm symptoms, but concerns about missed lesions persist; the cost savings afforded by noninvasive approaches must be weighed against treatment delays. We investigated the prevalence of malignancies and other serious abnormalities in patients with dyspepsia and the cost of detecting these by endoscopy.

METHODS

We studied 2741 primary-care outpatients, 18-70 years in age, who met Rome II criteria for dyspepsia. Patients with alarm features (dysphagia, bleeding, weight loss, etc) were excluded. All patients underwent endoscopy. The cost and diagnostic yield of an early endoscopy strategy in all patients were compared with those of endoscopy limited to age-defined cohorts. Costs were calculated for a low, intermediate, and high cost environment.

RESULTS

Endoscopies detected abnormalities in 635 patients (23%). The most common findings were reflux esophagitis with erosions (15%), gastric ulcers (2.7%), and duodenal ulcers (2.3%). The prevalence of upper gastrointestinal malignancy was 0.22%. If all dyspeptic patients 50 years or older underwent endoscopy, 1 esophageal cancer and no gastric cancers would have been missed. If the age threshold for endoscopy were set at 50 years, at a cost of $500/endoscopy, it would cost $82,900 (95% CI, $35,714-$250,000) to detect each case of cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary care dyspeptic patients without alarm symptoms rarely have serious underlying conditions at endoscopy. The costs associated with diagnosing an occult malignancy are large, but an age cut-off of 50 years for early endoscopy provides the best assurance that an occult malignancy will not be missed.

Peptic ulcer disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review attempts to contextualize some of the clinically important publications of the last 2 years as they relate to the broad topic of dyspepsia and peptic ulcer disease, both Helicobacter pylori and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug-related.

RECENT FINDINGS

This review includes findings which provide insight with regard to the triaging of dyspeptic subjects, information on new proton pump inhibitor drugs and H. pylori eradication 'rescue regimens'. The 'COX-2 debacle' is discussed and new data relating to the efficacy of co-therapy strategies for the prevention of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug gastropathy are presented, while the use of antiplatelet agents as 'safe' substitutes for aspirin cardioprophylaxis is questioned. The important issue of proton pump inhibitor safety and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug enteropathy are addressed.

SUMMARY

The review provides a summary and interpretation of literature pertaining to the above issues, and should provide a point of departure for clinical decision-making relevant to these issues.