Thermal games: frequency-dependent models of thermal adaptation

Is thermal sensitivity affected by predation risk? A case study in tadpoles from ephemeral environments

Changes in environmental temperature may induce variations in thermal tolerance and sensitivity in ectotherm organisms. These variations generate plastic responses that can be analyzed by examining their Thermal Performance Curves (TPCs). Additionally, some performance traits, like locomotion, could be affected by other factors such as biological interactions (e.g., predator-prey interaction). Here, we evaluate if the risk of predation modifies TPCs in Mendoza four-eyed frog (Pleurodema nebulosum, Burmeister, 1861) and Guayapa's four-eyed frog (Pleurodema guayapae, Barrio, 1964), two amphibian species that occur in ephemeral ponds in arid environments. We measured thermal tolerances and maximum swimming velocity at six different temperatures in tadpoles under three situations: control, exposure to predator chemical cues, and exposure to conspecific alarm cues. TPCs were fitted using General Additive Mixed Models. We found that curves of tadpoles at risk of predation differed from those of control mainly in thermal sensitivity parameters. Our work confirms the importance of biotic interactions have in thermal physiology.

Evolutionary interactions between thermal ecology and sexual selection

Thermal ecology and mate competition are both pervasive features of ecological adaptation. A surge of recent work has uncovered the diversity of ways in which temperature affects mating interactions and sexual selection. However, the potential for thermal biology and reproductive ecology to evolve together as organisms adapt to their thermal environment has been underappreciated. Here, we develop a series of hypotheses regarding (1) not only how thermal ecology affects mating system dynamics, but also how mating dynamics can generate selection on thermal traits; and (2) how the thermal consequences of mate competition favour the reciprocal co-adaptation of thermal biology and sexual traits. We discuss our hypotheses in the context of both pre-copulatory and post-copulatory processes. We also call for future work integrating experimental and phylogenetic comparative approaches to understand evolutionary feedbacks between thermal ecology and sexual selection. Overall, studying reciprocal feedbacks between thermal ecology and sexual selection may be necessary to understand how organisms have adapted to the environments of the past and could persist in the environments of the future.

Frequency dependence and the predictability of evolution in a changing environment

Frequency‐dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency‐dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and –2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi‐cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < –2, can produce self‐sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment‐dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.

Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: Implications for climate change forecasting

Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for >95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.

Main factors affecting lacertid lizard thermal ecology

The thermal ecology of ectotherms has been studied for almost 2 centuries, but additional attention is currently being paid to it, to understand how organisms deal with the environment in a climate change context. A consensus is still far away due to the large number of factors involved and their complex interactions. In this context, 3 analyses in lacertid lizards were carried out: (i) a meta-analysis, to test for differences between body and air temperatures from 71 populations; (ii) a meta-analysis concerning correlations between body and air temperatures from 60 populations; and (iii) a multimodel inference of thermoregulation effectiveness indices from 45 populations. The importance of different factors, including body size, habitat, insularity, altitude, climate and season, was evaluated in all analyses to model the response variables. A strong seasonality effect was observed, with a consistent pattern of less effective thermoregulation in summer compared to other seasons. Altitude was the second most important factor, with a consistent higher thermoregulation effort in populations occurring at high elevations (>1000 m above sea level). Other factors, such as insularity or body size, can also be important, but did not exhibit a clear pattern. Finally, thermoregulation was less affected by climate and habitat type.

The speed and metabolic cost of digesting a blood meal depends on temperature in a major disease vector

The energetics of processing a meal is crucial for understanding energy budgets of animals in the wild. Given that digestion and its associated costs may be dependent on environmental conditions, it is necessary to obtain a better understanding of these costs under diverse conditions and identify resulting behavioural or physiological trade-offs. This study examines the speed and metabolic costs - in cumulative, absolute and relative energetic terms - of processing a bloodmeal for a major zoonotic disease vector, the tsetse fly Glossina brevipalpis, across a range of ecologically relevant temperatures (25, 30 and 35°C). Respirometry showed that flies used less energy digesting meals faster at higher temperatures but that their starvation tolerance was reduced, supporting the prediction that warmer temperatures are optimal for bloodmeal digestion while cooler temperatures should be preferred for unfed or post-absorptive flies. (13)C-Breath testing revealed that the flies oxidized dietary glucose and amino acids within the first couple of hours of feeding and overall oxidized more dietary nutrients at the cooler temperatures, supporting the premise that warmer digestion temperatures are preferred because they maximize speed and minimize costs. An independent test of these predictions using a thermal gradient confirmed that recently fed flies selected warmer temperatures and then selected cooler temperatures as they became post-absorptive, presumably to maximize starvation resistance. Collectively these results suggest there are at least two thermal optima in a given population at any time and flies switch dynamically between optima throughout feeding cycles.

Costs and benefits of thermoregulation revisited: both the heterogeneity and spatial structure of temperature drive energetic costs

In recent years, ecologists have stepped up to address the challenges imposed by rapidly changing climates. Some researchers have developed niche-based methods to predict how species will shift their ranges. Such methods have evolved rapidly, resulting in models that incorporate physiological and behavioral mechanisms. Despite their sophistication, these models fail to account for environmental heterogeneity at the scale of an organism. We used an individual-based model to quantify the effects of operative environmental temperatures, as well as their heterogeneity and spatial structure, on the thermoregulation, movement, and energetics of ectotherms. Our simulations showed that the heterogeneity and spatial structure of a thermal landscape are as important as its mean temperature. In fact, temperature and heterogeneity interact to determine organismal performance. Consequently, the popular index of environmental quality (d(e)), which ignores variance and spatial structure, is inherently flawed as a descriptor of the thermal quality of an environment. Future efforts to model species' distributions should link thermoregulation and activity to environmental heterogeneity at fine scales.

Predator-prey interactions shape thermal patch use in a newt larvae-dragonfly nymph model

Thermal quality and predation risk are considered important factors influencing habitat patch use in ectothermic prey. However, how the predator's food requirement and the prey's necessity to avoid predation interact with their respective thermoregulatory strategies remains poorly understood. The recently developed 'thermal game model' predicts that in the face of imminent predation, prey should divide their time equally among a range of thermal patches. In contrast, predators should concentrate their hunting activities towards warmer patches. In this study, we test these predictions in a laboratory setup and an artificial environment that mimics more natural conditions. In both cases, we scored thermal patch use of newt larvae (prey) and free-ranging dragonfly nymphs (predators). Similar effects were seen in both settings. The newt larvae spent less time in the warm patch if dragonfly nymphs were present. The patch use of the dragonfly nymphs did not change as a function of prey availability, even when the nymphs were starved prior to the experiment. Our behavioral observations partially corroborate predictions of the thermal game model. In line with asymmetric fitness pay-offs in predator-prey interactions (the 'life-dinner' principle), the prey's thermal strategy is more sensitive to the presence of predators than vice versa.

Temperature-dependent shifts in herbivore performance and interactions drive nonlinear changes in crop damages

Understanding how and to what extent the influence of temperature on physiological performance scales up to interspecific interactions and process rate patterns remains a major scientific challenge faced by ecologists. Here, we combined approaches developed by two conceptual frameworks in ecology, the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), and the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship (B-EF), to test the hypothesis that interspecific difference in thermal performance modulates multiple species interactions along a thermal stress (SGH) and the subsequent richness effects on process rates (B-EF). We designed an experiment using three species of herbivorous agricultural pests with different thermal optima for which we determined how temperature influences the direction and the strength of interaction and subsequent richness effects on crop damage (7 species interaction treatments × 6 temperature treatments × 10 replicates). We showed that both biotic interactions and species richness effects drive variations in crop damages along a thermal stress gradient, and thus have the potential to drive agro-system responses to climate change. To help explain and generalize underlying mechanisms of richness effects on process rates, we further proposed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between positive and negative along a thermal stress depending on species thermal optima. Overall, our study demonstrates that nonlinear effects of temperature on process rates must be a major concern in terms of prediction and management of the consequences of global warming.

Assessing insect responses to climate change: What are we testing for? Where should we be heading?

To understand how researchers are tackling globally important issues, it is crucial to identify whether current research is comprehensive enough to make substantive predictions about general responses. We examined how research on climate change affecting insects is being assessed, what factors are being tested and the localities of studies, from 1703 papers published between 1985 and August 2012. Most published research (64%) is generated from Europe and North America and being dedicated to core data analysis, with 29% of the studies analysed dedicated to Lepidoptera and 22% Diptera: which are well above their contribution to the currently identified insect species richness (estimated at 13% and 17% respectively). Research publications on Coleoptera fall well short of their proportional contribution (19% of publications but 39% of insect species identified), and to a lesser extent so do Hemiptera, and Hymenoptera. Species specific responses to changes in temperature by assessing distribution/range shifts or changes in abundance were the most commonly used methods of assessing the impact of climate change on insects. Research on insects and climate change to date is dominated by manuscripts assessing butterflies in Europe, insects of economic and/or environmental concern in forestry, agriculture, and model organisms. The research on understanding how insects will respond to a rapidly changing climate is still in its infancy, but the current trends of publications give a good basis for how we are attempting to assess insect responses. In particular, there is a crucial need for broader studies of ecological, behavioural, physiological and life history responses to be addressed across a greater range of geographic locations, particularly Asia, Africa and Australasia, and in areas of high human population growth and habitat modification. It is still too early in our understanding of taxa responses to climate change to know if charismatic taxa, such as butterflies, or disease vectors, including Diptera, can be used as keystone taxa to generalise other insect responses to climate change. This is critical as the basic biology of most species is still poorly known, and dominant, well studied taxa may show variable responses to climate change across their distribution due to regional biotic and abiotic influences. Indeed identifying if insect responses to climate change can be generalised using phylogeny, functional traits, or functional groups, or will populations and species exhibit idiosyncratic responses, should be a key priority for future research.

Thermal games in crayfish depend on establishment of social hierarchies

An unequal resource distribution is commonly seen in dominance hierarchies, in which the individual with the higher status is more successful in obtaining the resource. One possible resource is preferred temperature. When situations allow, ectotherms regulate their body temperature by behaviourally selecting different environmental conditions, achieving, when possible, a preferred temperature. Using a shuttlebox, the preferred temperature for Procambarus clarkii was determined to be 23.9°C with upper and lower voluntary escape temperatures of 25.9 and 21.8°C, respectively. If this preferred temperature zone (21.8–25.9°C) was valued as a resource, given the choice between a preferred temperature and a non-preferred temperature, crayfish should compete over the preferred temperature, with the dominant individual of dyadic pairs achieving the preferred temperature more often than the subordinate. Using a dual-choice experimental tank, competition over a binary temperature choice between rank-established paired crayfish was determined under both warm and cold challenge conditions (warm vs preferred temperature and cold vs preferred temperature, respectively). In naive pairings, similar levels of competition over the preferred temperature occurred in both warm and cold challenge trials, as predicted by game theory. In established pairings, however, dominant crayfish gained significantly greater access to preferred temperature in both warm and cold challenge conditions. These results demonstrate that crayfish engage in a cost–benefit assessment during their initial agonistic contests over temperature, but as hierarchies mature, these thermal games are decided by the dominant animal gaining primary access to the temperature resource.

Interactive influence of biotic and abiotic cues on the plasticity of preferred body temperatures in a predator-prey system

The ability to modify phenotypes in response to heterogeneity of the thermal environment represents an important component of an ectotherm's non-genetic adaptive capacity. Despite considerable attention being dedicated to the study of thermally-induced developmental plasticity, whether or not interspecific interactions shape the plastic response in both a predator and its prey remains unknown. We tested several predictions about the joint influence of predator/prey scents and thermal conditions on the plasticity of preferred body temperatures (T (p)) in both actors of this interaction, using a dragonfly nymphs-newt larvae system. Dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna cyanea) and newt eggs (Ichthyosaura alpestris) were subjected to fluctuating cold and warm thermal regimes (7-12 and 12-22°C, respectively) and the presence/absence of a predator or prey chemical cues. Preferred body temperatures were measured in an aquatic thermal gradient (5-33°C) over a 24-h period. Newt T (p) increased with developmental temperature irrespective of the presence/absence of predator cues. In dragonflies, thermal reaction norms for T (p) were affected by the interaction between temperature and prey cues. Specifically, the presence of newt scents in cold regime lowered dragonfly T (p). We concluded that predator-prey interactions influenced thermally-induced plasticity of T (p) but not in a reciprocal fashion. The occurrence of frequency-dependent thermal plasticity may have broad implications for predator-prey population dynamics, the evolution of thermal biology traits, and the consequences of sustaining climate change within ecological communities.