Separating the influences of environment and species interactions on patterns of distribution and abundance: competition between large herbivores

Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems

Large herbivores play unique ecological roles and are disproportionately imperiled by human activity. As many wild populations dwindle towards extinction, and as interest grows in restoring lost biodiversity, research on large herbivores and their ecological impacts has intensified. Yet, results are often conflicting or contingent on local conditions, and new findings have challenged conventional wisdom, making it hard to discern general principles. Here, we review what is known about the ecosystem impacts of large herbivores globally, identify key uncertainties, and suggest priorities to guide research. Many findings are generalizable across ecosystems: large herbivores consistently exert top-down control of plant demography, species composition, and biomass, thereby suppressing fires and the abundance of smaller animals. Other general patterns do not have clearly defined impacts: large herbivores respond to predation risk but the strength of trophic cascades is variable; large herbivores move vast quantities of seeds and nutrients but with poorly understood effects on vegetation and biogeochemistry. Questions of the greatest relevance for conservation and management are among the least certain, including effects on carbon storage and other ecosystem functions and the ability to predict outcomes of extinctions and reintroductions. A unifying theme is the role of body size in regulating ecological impact. Small herbivores cannot fully substitute for large ones, and large-herbivore species are not functionally redundant - losing any, especially the largest, will alter net impact, helping to explain why livestock are poor surrogates for wild species. We advocate leveraging a broad spectrum of techniques to mechanistically explain how large-herbivore traits and environmental context interactively govern the ecological impacts of these animals.

Defining marine bacterioplankton community assembly rules by contrasting the importance of environmental determinants and biotic interactions

Bacterioplankton communities govern marine productivity and biogeochemical cycling, yet drivers of bacterioplankton assembly remain unclear. Here, we contrast the relative contribution of deterministic processes (environmental factors and biotic interactions) in driving temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton diversity at three different oceanographic time series locations, spanning 15° of latitude, which are each characterized by different environmental conditions and varying degrees of seasonality. Monthly surface samples (5.5 years) were analysed using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. The high- and mid-latitude sites of Maria Island and Port Hacking were characterized by high and intermediate levels of environmental heterogeneity, respectively, with both alpha diversity (72%; 24% of total variation) and beta diversity (32%; 30%) patterns within bacterioplankton assemblages explained by day length, ammonium, and mixed layer depth. In contrast, North Stradbroke Island, a sub-tropical location where environmental conditions are less variable, interspecific interactions were of increased importance in structuring bacterioplankton diversity (alpha: 33%; beta: 26%) with environment only contributing 11% and 13% to predicting diversity, respectively. Our results demonstrate that bacterioplankton diversity is the result of both deterministic environmental and biotic processes and that the importance of these different deterministic processes varies, potential in response to environmental heterogeneity.

Contrasting effects of human settlement on the interaction among sympatric apex carnivores

In the face of a growing human footprint, understanding interactions among threatened large carnivores is fundamental to effectively mitigating anthropogenic threats and managing species. Using data from a large-scale camera trap survey, we investigated the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on the interspecific interaction of a carnivore guild comprising of tiger, leopard and dhole in Bhutan. We demonstrate the complex effects of human settlement density on large carnivore interactions. Specifically, we demonstrate that leopard–dhole co-occupancy probability was higher in areas with higher human settlement density. The opposite was true for tiger–leopard co-occupancy probability, but it was positively affected by large prey (gaur) abundance. These findings suggest that multi-carnivore communities across land-use gradients are spatially structured and mediated also by human presence and/or the availability of natural prey. Our findings show that space-use patterns are driven by a combination of the behavioural mechanism of each species and its interactions with competing species. The duality of the effect of settlement density on species interactions suggests that the benefits of exploiting anthropogenic environments are a trade-off between ecological opportunity (food subsidies or easy prey) and the risk of escalating conflict with humans.

The Perils of Being Populous: Control and Conservation of Abundant Kangaroo Species

Australia's first people managed landscapes for kangaroo species as important elements of their diet, accoutrements and ceremony. This developed and persisted for about 65,000 years. The second wave of colonists from the United Kingdom, Ireland and many subsequent countries introduced familiar domesticated livestock and they have imposed their agricultural practices on the same landscapes since 1788. This heralded an ongoing era of management of kangaroos that are perceived as competitors to livestock and unwanted consumers of crops. Even so, a kangaroo image remains the iconic identifier of Australia. Kangaroo management is shrouded in dogma and propaganda and creates a tension along a loose rural-city divide. This divide is further dissected by the promotion of the consumption of kangaroo products as an ecological good marred by valid concerns about hygiene and animal welfare. In the last decade, the fervour to suppress and micro-manage populations of some kangaroo species has mounted. This includes suppression within protected areas that have generally been considered as safe havens. This review explores these tensions between the conservation of iconic and yet abundant wildlife, and conflict with people and the various interfaces at which they meet kangaroos.

Estimating the Effects of Habitat and Biological Interactions in an Avian Community

We used repeated sightings of individual birds encountered in community-level surveys to investigate the relative roles of habitat and biological interactions in determining the distribution and abundance of each species. To analyze these data, we developed a multispecies N-mixture model that allowed estimation of both positive and negative correlations between abundances of different species while also estimating the effects of habitat and the effects of errors in detection of each species. Using a combination of single- and multispecies N-mixture modeling, we examined for each species whether our measures of habitat were sufficient to account for the variation in encounter histories of individual birds or whether other habitat variables or interactions with other species needed to be considered. In the community that we studied, habitat appeared to be more influential than biological interactions in determining the distribution and abundance of most avian species. Our results lend support to the hypothesis that abundances of forest specialists are negatively affected by forest fragmentation. Our results also suggest that many species were associated with particular types of vegetation as measured by structural attributes of the forests. The abundances of 6 of the 73 species observed in our study were strongly correlated. These species included large birds (American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos) and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus)) that forage on the ground in open habitats and small birds (Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus), House Wren (Troglodytes aedon), Hooded Warbler (Setophaga citrina), and Prairie Warbler (Setophaga discolor)) that are associated with dense shrub cover. Species abundances were positively correlated within each size group and negatively correlated between groups. Except for the American Crow, which preys on eggs and nestlings of small song birds, none of the other 5 species is known to display direct interactions, so we suspect that the correlations may have been associated with species-specific responses to habitat components not adequately measured by our covariates.

Estimating abundances of interacting species using morphological traits, foraging guilds, and habitat

We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations – as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities.

Influence of climate and human land use on the distribution of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the western boreal forest

Understanding the factors that drive species distributions is emerging as an important tool in wildlife management, under unprecedented changes in species ranges. While invasion ecologists have long studied the impact of human land use on species’ distributions, and models developed more recently to explain changes in species range boundaries have been largely parameterized by climate variables, few authors have considered climate and land-use factors together to explain species distribution. The purpose of this study was to test two main competing hypotheses involving human land use and climate effects on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) distribution, which has expanded into the boreal ecosystem in recent decades. Using a species distribution modeling approach with data from boreal Alberta, we found that climate, as measured by an index of winter severity, was the most important individual factor determining current white-tailed deer distribution in boreal Alberta. Human land use (as measured by total land-use footprint) acted to substantially increase white-tailed deer presence but only in areas with more severe winter conditions. We use our findings to recommend where limiting or reclaiming the industrial footprint may be most beneficial to limiting white-tailed deer distribution.

Evidence for large-scale effects of competition: niche displacement in Canada lynx and bobcat

Determining the patterns, causes and consequences of character displacement is central to our understanding of competition in ecological communities. However, the majority of competition research has occurred over small spatial extents or focused on fine-scale differences in morphology or behaviour. The effects of competition on broad-scale distribution and niche characteristics of species remain poorly understood but critically important. Using range-wide species distribution models, we evaluated whether Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) or bobcat (Lynx rufus) were displaced in regions of sympatry. Consistent with our prediction, we found that lynx niches were less similar to those of bobcat in areas of sympatry versus allopatry, with a stronger reliance on snow cover driving lynx niche divergence in the sympatric zone. By contrast, bobcat increased niche breadth in zones of sympatry, and bobcat niches were equally similar to those of lynx in zones of sympatry and allopatry. These findings suggest that competitively disadvantaged species avoid competition at large scales by restricting their niche to highly suitable conditions, while superior competitors expand the diversity of environments used. Our results indicate that competition can manifest within climatic niche space across species' ranges, highlighting the importance of biotic interactions occurring at large spatial scales on niche dynamics.

Fish introductions reveal the temperature dependence of species interactions

A major area of current research is to understand how climate change will impact species interactions and ultimately biodiversity. A variety of environmental conditions are rapidly changing owing to climate warming, and these conditions often affect both the strength and outcome of species interactions. We used fish distributions and replicated fish introductions to investigate environmental conditions influencing the coexistence of two fishes in Swedish lakes: brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pike (Esox lucius). A logistic regression model of brown trout and pike coexistence showed that these species coexist in large lakes (more than 4.5 km(2)), but not in small, warm lakes (annual air temperature more than 0.9-1.5°C). We then explored how climate change will alter coexistence by substituting climate scenarios for 2091-2100 into our model. The model predicts that brown trout will be extirpated from approximately half of the lakes where they presently coexist with pike and from nearly all 9100 lakes where pike are predicted to invade. Context dependency was critical for understanding pike-brown trout interactions, and, given the widespread occurrence of context-dependent species interactions, this aspect will probably be critical for accurately predicting climate impacts on biodiversity.

Patterns of detection and capture are associated with cohabiting predators and prey

Avoidance behaviour can play an important role in structuring ecosystems but can be difficult to uncover and quantify. Remote cameras have great but as yet unrealized potential to uncover patterns arising from predatory, competitive or other interactions that structure animal communities by detecting species that are active at the same sites and recording their behaviours and times of activity. Here, we use multi-season, two-species occupancy models to test for evidence of interactions between introduced (feral cat Felis catus) and native predator (Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii) and predator and small mammal (swamp rat Rattus lutreolus velutinus) combinations at baited camera sites in the cool temperate forests of southern Tasmania. In addition, we investigate the capture rates of swamp rats in traps scented with feral cat and devil faecal odours. We observed that one species could reduce the probability of detecting another at a camera site. In particular, feral cats were detected less frequently at camera sites occupied by devils, whereas patterns of swamp rat detection associated with devils or feral cats varied with study site. Captures of swamp rats were not associated with odours on traps, although fewer captures tended to occur in traps scented with the faecal odour of feral cats. The observation that a native carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil, can suppress the detectability of an introduced eutherian predator, the feral cat, is consistent with a dominant predator-mesopredator relationship. Such a relationship has important implications for the interaction between feral cats and the lower trophic guilds that form their prey, especially if cat activity increases in places where devil populations are declining. More generally, population estimates derived from devices such as remote cameras need to acknowledge the potential for one species to change the detectability of another, and incorporate this in assessments of numbers and survival.

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

Habitat use by sympatric red and roe deer in a Mediterranean ecosystem

Much recent research has focused on understanding the environmental factors that limit the distribution and abundance of species. However, by no means all models consider the effects of interspecific competition on species’ distributions. In this study, we explore the contribution of both environmental factors and the presence of another ungulate species on the distribution of two sympatric deer species: roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and red deer (Cervus elaphus). To assess the importance of both biotic and abiotic factors, we constructed models for each species incorporating environmental predictors and an index of abundance of the other species. High density of shrubs and distance to roads had a positive affect on roe deer occurrence while spatial heterogeneity, namely mean shape index, and the presence of red deer had a negative effect. In contrast, the percentage of shrub cover, landscape heterogeneity and the presence of roe deer all positively affected red deer occurrence. Our results suggest that interspecific competition between these species might occur with asymmetric effects and underlines the need to explore the nature of these interactions in greater detail in southern ecosystems.

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.

Top predators as biodiversity regulators: the dingo Canis lupus dingo as a case study

Top-order predators often have positive effects on biological diversity owing to their key functional roles in regulating trophic cascades and other ecological processes. Their loss has been identified as a major factor contributing to the decline of biodiversity in both aquatic and terrestrial systems. Consequently, restoring and maintaining the ecological function of top predators is a critical global imperative. Here we review studies of the ecological effects of the dingo Canis lupus dingo, Australia's largest land predator, using this as a case study to explore the influence of a top predator on biodiversity at a continental scale. The dingo was introduced to Australia by people at least 3500 years ago and has an ambiguous status owing to its brief history on the continent, its adverse impacts on livestock production and its role as an ecosystem architect. A large body of research now indicates that dingoes regulate ecological cascades, particularly in arid Australia, and that the removal of dingoes results in an increase in the abundances and impacts of herbivores and invasive mesopredators, most notably the red fox Vulpes vulpes. The loss of dingoes has been linked to widespread losses of small and medium-sized native mammals, the depletion of plant biomass due to the effects of irrupting herbivore populations and increased predation rates by red foxes. We outline a suite of conceptual models to describe the effects of dingoes on vertebrate populations across different Australian environments. Finally, we discuss key issues that require consideration or warrant research before the ecological effects of dingoes can be incorporated formally into biodiversity conservation programs.

Climate-driven variation in food availability between the core and range edge of the endangered northern bettong (Bettongia tropica)

The endangered northern bettong (Bettongia tropica) occurs in four disjunct populations in far north Queensland, Australia, at a high density only in its range core (RC). A recent study suggested that B. tropica populations are sparse at the northern and southern range edges (SRE) due to more severe droughts and variable climatic conditions causing fluctuations in the availability of their principal food resource, truffle-like fungi. Truffle availability in the Australian tropics is affected by climate, specifically seasonality of precipitation. We aimed to determine whether the differences in weather patterns between the RC and SRE could be translated to actual differences in truffle availability. Truffle density was consistently lower on the SRE although biomass was slightly higher there due to dominance by drought-tolerant truffle taxa that produce few but large truffles. Lower densities of truffles on the SRE could explain why B. tropica is also less abundant there and why they may be less resilient to competition from the more generalist rufous bettong (Aepyprymnus rufescens). Increasing temperatures and, more importantly, harsher droughts predicted for this region as a result of climate change, may have further detrimental impacts on truffle availability and thus population densities of B. tropica and other mycophagous species.