Importance of sampling design and analysis in animal population studies: a comment on Sergio et al

Use of classical bird census transects as spatial replicates for hierarchical modeling of an avian community

New monitoring programs are often designed with some form of temporal replication to deal with imperfect detection by means of occupancy models. However, classical bird census data from earlier times often lack temporal replication, precluding detection-corrected inferences about occupancy. Historical data have a key role in many ecological studies intended to document range shifts, and so need to be made comparable with present-day data by accounting for detection probability. We analyze a classical bird census conducted in the region of Murcia (SE Spain) in 1991 and 1992 and propose a solution to estimating detection probability for such historical data when used in a community occupancy model: the spatial replication of subplots nested within larger plots allows estimation of detection probability. In our study, the basic sample units were 1-km transects, which were considered spatial replicates in two aggregation schemes. We fit two Bayesian multispecies occupancy models, one for each aggregation scheme, and evaluated the linear and quadratic effect of forest cover and temperature, and a linear effect of precipitation on species occupancy probabilities. Using spatial rather than temporal replicates allowed us to obtain individual species occupancy probabilities and species richness accounting for imperfect detection. Species-specific occupancy and community size decreased with increasing annual mean temperature. Both aggregation schemes yielded estimates of occupancy and detectability that were highly correlated for each species, so in the design of future surveys ecological reasons and cost-effective sampling designs should be considered to select the most suitable aggregation scheme. In conclusion, the use of spatial replication may often allow historical survey data to be applied formally hierarchical occupancy models and be compared with modern-day data of the species community to analyze global change process.

Cuckoos vs. top predators as prime bioindicators of biodiversity in disturbed environments

We studied the abundance of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus L. little cuckoo Cuculus poliocephalus L. and Asian cuckoo Cuculus saturatus L. and avian top predators as indicators of bird species richness (surrogate of biodiversity) in disturbed environments caused by radioactive contamination in Chernobyl, Ukraine and Fukushima, Japan, comparing their efficiency as indicators of local biodiversity hotspots. Bird species richness and birds abundance were quantified in each sample site during the breeding seasons between 2006 and 2015 and the level of background radiation was measured at every site. The correlation between number of cuckoos, top predators, land use composition and level of background radiation with bird species richness as response variable were examined using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. The strength of correlation between species richness and abundance and the covariates obtained from the model outputs were used as measure of the efficiency of each predictor, as well as the AIC of each model. Background radiation was negatively correlated with bird species richness and bird abundance in both countries, while number of top predators and cuckoos were both positively correlated with bird species richness and abundance. However, model with number of cuckoos was more performant than model with number of avian top predators. These differences in performance supports the hypothesis that cuckoos are a largely superior bioindicator than top predators.