Environmental conditions associated with bat white-nose syndrome mortality in the north-eastern United States

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Validation of a Field-Portable, Handheld Real-Time PCR System for Detecting Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the Causative Agent of White-Nose Syndrome in Bats

White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, has decimated bat populations across North America. Despite ongoing management programs, WNS continues to expand into new populations, including in US states previously thought to be free from the pathogen and disease. This expansion highlights a growing need for surveillance tools that can be used to enhance existing monitoring programs and support the early detection of P. destructans in new areas. We evaluated the feasibility of using a handheld, field-portable, real-time (quantitative) PCR (qPCR) thermocycler known as the Biomeme two3 and the associated field-based nucleic acid extraction kit and assay reagents for the detection of P. destructans in little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus). Results from the field-based protocol using the Biomeme platform were compared with those from a commonly used laboratory-based qPCR protocol. When using dilutions of known conidia concentrations, the lowest detectable concentration with the laboratory-based approach was 108.8 conidia/mL, compared with 1,087.5 conidia/mL (10 times higher, i.e., one fewer 10× dilution) using the field-based approach. Further comparisons using field samples suggest a high level of concordance between the two protocols, with positive and negative agreements of 98.2% and 100% respectively. The cycle threshold values were marginally higher for most samples using the field-based protocol. These results are an important step in establishing and validating a rapid, field-assessable detection platform for P. destructans, which is urgently needed to improve the surveillance and monitoring capacity for WNS and support on-the-ground management and response efforts.

Using Remote Sensing Data and Species–Environmental Matching Model to Predict the Potential Distribution of Grassland Rodents in the Northern China

An increase in grassland rodent pests in China has seriously affected grassland ecological environments and the development of husbandry. Here, we used remote sensing data and a species–environmental matching model to predict the potential spatial distribution of the five major rodent pest species (Microtus, Citellus, Myospalax, Meriones, Ochotona) in northern China, and examined how the predicted suitability of the area depends on environmental variables. The results were consistent and significant, better than random, and close to optimal. Meriones and Microtus had the largest areas of High Suitability and Moderate Suitability with regard to environmental conditions. The combination analysis of areas of Moderate Suitability and High Suitability showed that for 66% of the total area, conditions were suitable for just one rodent species, while conditions suitable for two and three kinds of rodents accounted for 31% and 3%, respectively. Altitude, land surface temperature in winter (November, December, February) and summer (May, June, July), vegetation cover in summer (July, August), and precipitation from spring to summer (April, May, June) determined the spatial distribution of grassland rodents. Our findings provide a powerful and useful methodological tool for tracking the five major rodent pest species in northern China and for future management measures to ensure grassland ecological environment security.

Characteristics of Caves Used by Wintering Bats in a Subtropical Environment

Many cave-roosting bats are declining in number throughout their range because of multiple threats, including disease, disturbance by humans, and habitat loss. Successful conservation of cave-roosting bats requires an understanding of the roles of microclimate, cave structure, and the surrounding landscape on the distribution and abundance of bats, and in particular, the use of winter cave roosts. Cave bats have been well studied in temperate climates, but we know little about these bats in subtropical climates. From 2015 to 2017, we conducted 399 winter surveys of 162 caves in Florida to evaluate factors affecting the presence and abundance of bats at cave roosts. We also determined whether temperatures at these cave roosts were suitable for Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungus that causes white-nose syndrome. Across all 3 y, we detected three species of bats: tricolored bat Perimyotis subflavus in 126 (77.8%) caves, southeastern myotis Myotis austroriparius in 51 (31.5%) caves, and a single Rafinesque's big-eared bat Corynorhinus rafinesquii. We analyzed the presence of both tricolored bats and southeastern myotis in caves by using mixed-effects models with a binomial distribution and the number of tricolored bats by using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a Poisson error distribution. Tricolored bat presence was significantly and positively influenced by a cooler cave surface temperature, larger cave entrance size, a single entrance, and the presence of solution holes. Tricolored bat abundance increased in longer, cooler caves that had solution holes, a single, unobstructed entrance, and had no signs of flooding. Southeastern myotis presence was positively associated with longer, domed caves. To be most effective, conservation efforts in subtropical climates should focus on caves with the identified characteristics. More than 90% of caves surveyed each year had a cave interior surface temperature below the upper critical growth limit for P. destructans (19.8°C), indicating that most Florida caves are suitable for growth of P. destructans. Therefore, regular monitoring of winter bat populations in subtropical caves may be important for detecting P. destructans and white-nose syndrome.

Hibernacula microclimate and declines in overwintering bats during an outbreak of white-nose syndrome near the northern range limit of infection in North America

We document white-nose syndrome (WNS), a lethal disease of bats caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), and hibernacula microclimate in New Brunswick, Canada. Our study area represents a more northern region than is common for hibernacula microclimate investigations, providing insight as to how WNS may impact bats at higher latitudes. To determine the impact of the March 2011 arrival of Pd in New Brunswick and the role of hibernacula microclimate on overwintering bat mortality, we surveyed bat numbers at hibernacula twice a year from 2009 to 2015. We also collected data from iButton temperature loggers deployed at all sites and data from HOBO temperature and humidity loggers at three sites. Bat species found in New Brunswick hibernacula include Myotis lucifugus (Little Brown Bat) and M. septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat), with small numbers of Perimyotis subflavus (Tricolored Bat). All known hibernacula in the province were Pd-positive with WNS-positive bats by winter 2013. A 99% decrease in the overwintering bat population in New Brunswick was observed between 2011 and 2015. We did not observe P. subflavus during surveys 2013-2015 and the species appears to be extirpated from these sites. Bats did not appear to choose hibernacula based on winter temperatures, but dark zone (zone where no light penetrates) winter temperatures did not differ among our study sites. Winter dark zone temperatures were warmer and less variable than entrance or above ground temperatures. We observed visible Pd growth on hibernating bats in New Brunswick during early winter surveys (November), even though hibernacula temperatures were colder than optimum for in vitro Pd growth. This suggests that cold hibernacula temperatures encountered near the apparent northern range limit for Pd do not sufficiently slow fungal growth to prevent the onset of WNS and associated bat mortality over the winter.

Connectivity over a disease risk gradient enables recovery of rainforest frogs

Chytridiomycosis has been a key driver of global frog declines and extinctions, particularly for high-altitude populations across Australia and the Americas. While recent evidence shows some species are recovering, the extent of such recoveries and the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly resolved. We surveyed the historical latitudinal and elevational range of four Australian rainforest frogs that disappeared from upland sites between 1989 and 1994 to establish their contemporary distribution and elevational limits, and investigate factors affecting population recovery. Five rainforest streams were surveyed from mountain-base to summit (30 sites in total), with swabs collected from the target species (Litoria dayi, L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and L. serrata) to determine their infection status, and data loggers deployed to measure microclimatic variation across the elevational gradient. Infection probability increased with elevation and canopy cover as it was tightly and inversely correlated with stream-side air temperature. Occupancy patterns suggest varying responses to this disease threat gradient. Two species, L. rheocola and L. serrata, were found over their full historical elevational range (≥1,000 m above sea level [asl]), while L. dayi was not detected above 400 m (formerly known up to 900 m asl) and L. nannotis was not detected above 800 m (formerly known up to 1,200 m asl). Site occupancy probability was negatively related to predicted infection prevalence for L. dayi, L. nannotis, and L. rheocola, but not L. serrata, which appears to now tolerate high fungal burdens. This study highlights the importance of environmental refuges and connectivity across disease risk gradients for the persistence and natural recovery of frogs susceptible to chytridiomycosis. Likewise, in documenting both interspecific variation in recovery rates and intraspecific differences between sites, this study suggests interactions between disease threats and host selection exist that could be manipulated. For example, translocations may be warranted where connectivity is poor or the increase in disease risk is too steep to allow recolonization, combined with assisted selection or use of founders from populations that have already undergone natural selection.

Major histocompatibility complex variation is similar in little brown bats before and after white-nose syndrome outbreak

White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), has driven alarming declines in North American hibernating bats, such as little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus). During hibernation, infected little brown bats are able to initiate anti-Pd immune responses, indicating pathogen-mediated selection on the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes. However, such immune responses may not be protective as they interrupt torpor, elevate energy costs, and potentially lead to higher mortality rates. To assess whether WNS drives selection on MHC genes, we compared the MHC DRB gene in little brown bats pre- (Wisconsin) and post- (Michigan, New York, Vermont, and Pennsylvania) WNS (detection spanning 2014-2015). We genotyped 131 individuals and found 45 nucleotide alleles (27 amino acid alleles) indicating a maximum of 3 loci (1-5 alleles per individual). We observed high allelic admixture and a lack of genetic differentiation both among sampling sites and between pre- and post-WNS populations, indicating no signal of selection on MHC genes. However, post-WNS populations exhibited decreased allelic richness, reflecting effects from bottleneck and drift following rapid population declines. We propose that mechanisms other than adaptive immunity are more likely driving current persistence of little brown bats in affected regions.

Can Ectoparasites Be Implicated in the Spread of Pseudogymnoascus destructans?

Real-time PCR detected Pseudogymnoascus destructans associated with ectoparasites collected from three mist-netted free-flying bats (two gray bats, Myotis grisescens; one Indiana bat, Myotis sodalis) in late August to early September 2016 from Kentucky, US, a state impacted by white-nose syndrome. Presence of viable conidia could implicate ectoparasites as possible vectors of white-nose syndrome.

Phenotypic Divergence along Geographic Gradients Reveals Potential for Rapid Adaptation of the White-Nose Syndrome Pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, in North America

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an ongoing epizootic affecting multiple species of North American bats, caused by epidermal infections of the psychrophilic filamentous fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans Since its introduction from Europe, WNS has spread rapidly across eastern North America and resulted in high mortality rates in bats. At present, the mechanisms behind its spread and the extent of its adaptation to different geographic and ecological niches remain unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the geographic patterns of phenotypic variation and the potential evidence for adaptation among strains representing broad geographic locations in eastern North America. The morphological features of these strains were evaluated on artificial medium, and the viability of asexual arthroconidia of representative strains was investigated after storage at high (23°C), moderate (14°C), and low (4°C) temperatures at different lengths of time. Our analyses identified evidence for a geographic pattern of colony morphology changes among the clonal descendants of the fungus, with trait values correlated with increased distance from the epicenter of WNS. Our genomic comparisons of three representative isolates revealed novel genetic polymorphisms and suggested potential candidate mutations that might be related to some of the phenotypic changes. These results show that even though this pathogen arrived in North America only recently and reproduces asexually, there has been substantial evolution and phenotypic diversification during its rapid clonal expansion.IMPORTANCE The causal agent of white-nose syndrome in bats is Pseudogymnoascus destructans, a filamentous fungus recently introduced from its native range in Europe. Infections caused by P. destructans have progressed across the eastern parts of Canada and the United States over the last 10 years. It is not clear how the disease is spread, as the pathogen is unable to grow above 23°C and ambient temperature can act as a barrier when hosts disperse. Here, we explore the patterns of phenotypic diversity and the germination of the fungal asexual spores, arthroconidia, from strains across a sizeable area of the epizootic range. Our analyses revealed evidence of adaptation along geographic gradients during its expansion. The results have implications for understanding the diversification of P. destructans and the limits of WNS spread in North America. Given the rapidly expanding distribution of WNS, a detailed understanding of the genetic bases for phenotypic variations in growth, reproduction, and dispersal of P. destructans is urgently needed to help control this disease.

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

Conservation implications of ameliorating survival of little brown bats with white-nose syndrome

Management of wildlife populations impacted by novel threats is often challenged by a lack of data on temporal changes in demographic response. Populations may suffer rapid declines from the introduction of new stressors, but how demography changes over time is critical to determining long-term outcomes for populations. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an infectious disease of hibernating bats, has caused massive and rapid population declines in several hibernating species of bats in North America since the disease was first observed on the continent in 2006. Estimating annual survival rates and demographic trends among remnant colonies of hibernating bats that experienced mass mortality from WNS is needed to determine long-term population viability of species impacted by this disease. Using mark-recapture data on infected little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), we estimated the first apparent annual survival rates for four years following WNS detection at a site. We found strong support for an increasing trend in annual survival, which improved from 0.68 (95% CI = 0.44-0.85) to 0.75 (95% CI = 0.51-0.89) for males and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.44-0.81) to 0.70 (95% CI = 0.50-0.84) for females. These results suggest that stabilization at remnant colonies after mass mortality from WNS may be due to improved survival and not from immigration from other areas. Despite ameliorating survival, our stochastic matrix projection model predicts continued declines for little brown bat populations (λ = 0.95), raising concern for the regional persistence of this species. We conducted a vital rate sensitivity analysis and determined that adult and juvenile survival, as opposed to fecundity, are the demographic parameters most important to target to maximize recovery potential of little brown bat populations in areas impacted by WNS.

The potential impact of white-nose syndrome on the conservation status of north american bats

White-Nose syndrome (WNS) is an emergent infectious disease that has already killed around six million bats in North America and has spread over two thousand kilometers from its epicenter. However, only a few studies on the possible impacts of the fungus on bat hosts were conducted, particularly concerning its implications for bat conservation. We predicted the consequences of WNS spread by generating a map with potential areas for its occurrence based on environmental conditions in sites where the disease already occurs, and overlaid it with the geographic distribution of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities would negatively affect local bat populations and reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population decline. Our results suggest that WNS will not spread widely throughout North America, being mostly restricted to the east and southeast regions. In contrast, our most pessimistic scenario of population decline indicated that the disease would threaten 32% of the bat species. Our results could help further conservation plans to preserve bat diversity in North America.