Multi-temporal distribution modelling with satellite tracking data: predicting responses of a long-distance migrant to changing environmental conditions

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Habitat prediction modelling for vulture conservation in Gangetic-Thar-Deccan region of India

Ecologically and economically important obligate scavengers like vultures are under threat of extinction in the old world. Several resident and migratory vulture sites and individuals are hosted by the Gangetic-Thar-Deccan region of India with varied landscapes. The landscape is under threat from anthropogenic activities and climate change impacting the habitat. Therefore, habitat suitability of vultures was analysed using species distribution model, MaxEnt, ensemble of global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2AO and MIROC5), citizen science and expert collected data. Altogether, 51 models were developed and their robustness was assessed to be good for conservation purpose (AUC range 0.719-0.906). Predicted unsuitable and suitable area categories of all vultures, resident vultures and migratory vultures were identified for the present and future years (2050 and 2070) under moderate and extreme emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The short-term and long-term area suitability change varied between 1 and 3%. Area suitability differences were also noticed among larger (global) and smaller (local) geographical areas. The bioenvironmental parameters (land use, land cover and human footprint) played a major role in habitat determination in the current scenario. Bioclimatic factors, like precipitation parameters (precipitation seasonality bio 15 and annual precipitation bio12) and temperature parameters (isothermality bio 3 and temperature seasonality bio04), were the main model determining covariates for future prediction. An earlier hypothesis of higher suitability of forest and lower suitability of agriculture area tested in this study stood modified. Implications of the results are discussed, and conservation strategies are suggested with an advice of global strategy and local execution.

Climate complexity in the migratory cycle of Ammodramus bairdii

One way to understand the ecology of bird migration is to analyze how birds use their ecological niche during their annual cycle. Ammodramus bairdii is a grassland specialist sparrow that breeds in southern Canada and the northern U.S.A. and winters in the Chihuahuan Desert. A continuous and alarming decrease of its populations has been observed over the last 50 years, and studying its seasonal distribution and associated climatic niches could help improve strategies for its conservation. We analyzed the temporal use of its Grinnellian niche (GN) -set of environmental conditions under which a species can establish and persist; in this case the climatic attributes-. We modeled the GN for the reproductive and winter seasons and projected them onto each other (inter-prediction), and also onto transient migratory periods. To measure niche breadth and their overlap, minimum convex polygons (MCP) were calculated for the climatic space. The niches of each of the two seasons were tested for similarity using the PCA axes of climatic variables. The geographic areas with optimal, suboptimal and marginal conditions were identified, based on the distance to the centroid of the GN. The models for each season revealed no geographic inter-prediction among them, with the exception of winter to migratory seasons. The niche breadth of the winter was greater than that of the reproductive season, with an overlap of 22.47% and 45.18%, respectively. The similarity analyses showed a value of zero between seasons. The climate conditions for the records during the migratory months corresponded with suboptimal and marginal conditions of the sparrow's winter niche. These results suggest that A. bairdii uses different climate conditions within ecological niches of each season during its migratory cycle.

Current and future suitability of wintering grounds for a long-distance migratory raptor

Conservation of migratory species faces the challenge of understanding the ecological requirements of individuals living in two geographically separated regions. In some cases, the entire population of widely distributed species congregates at relatively small wintering areas and hence, these areas become a priority for the species’ conservation. Satellite telemetry allows fine tracking of animal movements and distribution in those less known, often remote areas. Through integrating satellite and GPS data from five separated populations comprising most of the breeding range, we created a wide habitat suitability model for the Eleonora’s falcon on its wintering grounds in Madagascar. On this basis, we further investigated, for the first time, the impact of climate change on the future suitability of the species’ wintering areas. Eleonora’s falcons are mainly distributed in the north and along the east of Madagascar, exhibiting strong site fidelity over years. The current species’ distribution pattern is associated with climatic factors, which are likely related to food availability. The extent of suitable areas for Eleonora’s falcon is expected to increase in the future. The integration of habitat use information and climatic projections may provide insights on the consequences of global environmental changes for the long-term persistence of migratory species populations.

Environmental and managerial factors associated with pack stock distribution in high elevation meadows: Case study from Yosemite National Park

Parks and protected areas are integral strategies for biological diversity conservation, and their management often involves balancing visitor use with resource protection. Effectively balancing these objectives requires data about how use is distributed within areas of interest and how management strategies and environmental conditions interact to minimize negative impacts. This study examined which environmental and managerial factors most influenced the distribution of domestic pack stock animals, a common visitor use-related activity, when released to graze in high elevation meadows. Using a species distribution modelling approach, MaxEnt, managerial factors were found to be among the top contributors to models. Pack stock animals concentrated use near the locations where they were released as well as portable enclosure fencing confining the lead animal even though the remainder were allowed to roam freely. Elevation was the environmental factor contributing most, with animals remaining at similar elevations to the meadow even if moving into nearby understory. Results highlight the importance of release point and fence locations to overall pack stock animal distribution and rotational or strategic placement can be a tactic for mitigating impacts to sensitive habitats.

Pronounced Seasonal Changes in the Movement Ecology of a Highly Gregarious Central-Place Forager, the African Straw-Coloured Fruit Bat (Eidolon helvum)

BACKGROUND

Straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) migrate over vast distances across the African continent, probably following seasonal bursts of resource availability. This causes enormous fluctuations in population size, which in turn may influence the bats' impact on local ecosystems. We studied the movement ecology of this central-place forager with state-of-the-art GPS/acceleration loggers and concurrently monitored the seasonal fluctuation of the colony in Accra, Ghana. Habitat use on the landscape scale was assessed with remote sensing data as well as ground-truthing of foraging areas.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

During the wet season population low (~ 4000 individuals), bats foraged locally (3.5-36.7 km) in urban areas with low tree cover. Major food sources during this period were fruits of introduced trees. Foraging distances almost tripled (24.1-87.9 km) during the dry season population peak (~ 150,000 individuals), but this was not compensated for by reduced resting periods. Dry season foraging areas were random with regard to urban footprint and tree cover, and food consisted almost exclusively of nectar and pollen of native trees.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Our study suggests that straw-coloured fruit bats disperse seeds in the range of hundreds of meters up to dozens of kilometres, and pollinate trees for up to 88 km. Straw-coloured fruit bats forage over much larger distances compared to most other Old World fruit bats, thus providing vital ecosystem services across extensive landscapes. We recommend increased efforts aimed at maintaining E. helvum populations throughout Africa since their keystone role in various ecosystems is likely to increase due to the escalating loss of other seed dispersers as well as continued urbanization and habitat fragmentation.

Multiple genetic lineages challenge the monospecific status of the West African endemic frog family Odontobatrachidae

Background

Correct species identification is crucial in different fields of biology, and in conservation. The endemic West African frog family Odontobatrachidae currently contains a single described species, Odontobatrachus natator. From western Guinea to western Côte d'Ivoire it inhabits forests around waterfalls or cascades. Based on more than 130 specimens from 78 localities, covering the entire distribution, we investigated the molecular diversity of these frogs.

Results

Our analyses included mitochondrial and nuclear genes, with a concatenated alignment of 3527 base pairs. We detected high level of genetic differentiation with five distinct lineages or operational taxonomic units (OTUs). These OTUs were also identified by two different species delimitation approaches, Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) and cluster algorithm. All OTUs occur in parapatry in the Upper Guinean forests. One OTU, assigned to the “true” Odontobatrachus natator, covers the largest distribution, ranging from the border region of western Sierra Leone-Guinea to eastern Liberia. Two OTUs are restricted to western Guinea (Fouta Djallon and foothills), while two others occur in eastern Guinea and the border region of Guinea-Liberia-Côte d'Ivoire. The OTU representing O. natator consists of two divergent subclades: one restricted to the Freetown Peninsula (Sierra Leone) and the other covering all populations further inland. Environmental niche models indicated that the restricted Freetown Peninsula population is separated by unsuitable habitat from remaining populations.

Conclusion

Geographic isolation of OTUs and molecular differences comparable to species level differentiation in other frog families indicate that O. natator contains cryptic species diversity. Respective distribution patterns most probably resulted from repeated changes of forest cover (contraction and expansion) over evolutionary timescales. The survival within forest refugia that have persisted through multiple drier periods and subsequent dispersal during wetter times may best explain the observed geographic distributions of OTUs. According to the IUCN Red List range criteria each OTU should be classified as “Endangered.” If the Freetown Peninsula “natator” population is recognized as a distinct species it would warrant recognition as “Critically Endangered.” The identification of cryptic lineages highlights the urgent need to protect these frogs, all of which are endemic to small areas within the Upper Guinean biodiversity hotspot.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0346-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Using satellite telemetry and environmental niche modelling to inform conservation targets for a long-distance migratory raptor in its wintering grounds

Understanding the ecology of migratory birds during the non-breeding season is necessary for ensuring their conservation. Using satellite telemetry data we describe winter ranging behaviour and movements of pallid harriersCircus macrourusthat bred in Kazakhstan. We developed an ecological niche model for the species in Africa, to identify the most suitable wintering areas for pallid harriers and the importance of habitat in determining the location of those areas. We also assessed how well represented suitable areas are in the network of protected areas. Individual harriers showed relatively high fidelity to wintering areas but with potential for interannual changes. The ecological niche model highlighted the importance of open habitats with natural vegetation. Most suitable areas for the species were located in eastern Africa. Suitable areas had a patchy distribution but were relatively well included in the network of protected areas. The preferential use of habitats with natural vegetation by wintering pallid harriers and the patchiness of the most suitable areas highlight the harrier's vulnerability to land-use changes and the associated loss of natural vegetation in Africa. Conservation of harriers could be enhanced by preserving natural grasslands within protected areas and improving habitat management in the human-influenced portions of the species’ core wintering areas.

Ecological specialization to fluctuating resources prevents long-distance migratory raptors from becoming sedentary on islands

Background

The adaptive transition between behavioral strategies, such as the shift from migratoriness to sedentariness, remains an outstanding question in evolutionary ecology. Density-dependent variation in the age of first breeding has been proposed as a feasible mechanism through which long-lived migratory birds with deferred sexual maturity should become sedentary to persist on islands. Although this pattern seems to hold for most raptors and herons, a few exceptions have been identified. One of these exceptions is the Eleonora’s falcon, a long-distance migratory bird, which shows one of the most peculiar adaptations in the timing of reproduction and food requirements among raptors.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we compiled data concerning demography, banding recoveries and satellite tracking of Eleonora’s falcons to discuss likely explanations for the exceptional behavior of this insular long-distance migratory species.

Conclusions/Significance

New data reveal that Eleonora’s falcons do return to the natal colonies in their first year and young birds are able to breed. However, in contrast to previous hypothesis, the highly specialized strategy of this and other ecologically similar species, as well as the virtual lack of food during winter at breeding areas prevent them from becoming sedentary on islands. Although the ultimate mechanisms underlying the process of sedentarization remain poorly understood, the evidence provided reveal the existence of important trade-offs associated with ecological specialization that may become particularly relevant in the present context of global change.