Defaulting from antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa: a problem of definition

Loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy clinics: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies in South Africa from 2011 to 2015

Background

South Africa has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. To optimise programme outcomes, it is critical that patients are retained in care and that retention is accurately measured.

Objectives

To identify all studies published in South Africa from 2011 to 2015 that used loss to follow-up (LTFU) as an indicator or outcome to describe the variation in definitions and to estimate the proportion of patients lost to care across studies.

Method

All studies published between 01 January 2011 and October 2015 that included loss to follow-up or default from ART care in a South African cohort were included by use of a broad search strategy across multiple databases. To be included, the cohort had to include any patient ART data, including follow-up time, from 01 January 2010. Two authors, working independently, extracted data and assessed risk of bias from all manuscripts. Meta-analysis was performed for studies stratified by the same loss to follow-up definition.

Results

Forty-eight adult, 15 paediatric and 4 pregnant cohorts were included. Median cohort size was 3737; follow-up time ranged from 9 weeks to 5 years. Meta-analysis did not reveal an important difference in LTFU estimates in adult cohorts at 1 year between loss to follow-up defined as 3 months (11.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 10.7% – 11.2%) compared with 6 months (12.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 11.8% – 12.2%). Only two cohorts reported reliable LTFU estimates at 5 years: this was 25.1% (95% CI 24.8% – 25.4%).

Conclusion

South Africa should standardise a LTFU definition. This would aid in monitoring and evaluation of ART programmes, with the broader goal of improving patient outcomes.

Impact of definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in antiretroviral therapy program evaluation: variation in the definition can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of different definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) on estimates of program outcomes in cohort studies of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We examined the impact of different definitions of LTFU using data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa. The reference approach, Definition A, was compared with five alternative scenarios that differed in eligibility for analysis and the date assigned to the LTFU outcome. Kaplan-Meier estimates of LTFU were calculated up to 2 years after starting ART.

RESULTS

Estimated cumulative LTFU were 14% and 22% at 12 and 24 months, respectively, using the reference approach. Differences in the proportion LTFU were reported in the alternative scenarios with 12-month estimates of LTFU varying by up to 39% compared with Definition A. Differences were largest when the date assigned to the LTFU outcome was 6 months after the date of last contact and when the site-specific definition of LTFU was used.

CONCLUSION

Variation in the definitions of LTFU within cohort analyses can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU over 2 years of follow-up. Use of a standardized definition of LTFU is needed to accurately measure program effectiveness and comparability between programs.

High loss to followup and early mortality create substantial reduction in patient retention at antiretroviral treatment program in north-west ethiopia

Background. There has been a rapid scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia since 2005. We aimed to evaluate mortality, loss to followup, and retention in care at HIV Clinic, University of Gondar Hospital, north-west Ethiopia. Method. A retrospective patient chart record analysis was performed on adult AIDS patients enrolled in the treatment program starting from 1 March 2005. We performed survival analysis to determine, mortality, loss to followup and retention in care. Results. A total of 3012 AIDS patients were enrolled in the ART Program between March 2005 and August 2010. At the end of the 66 months of the program initiation, 61.4% of the patients were retained on treatment, 10.4% died, and 31.4% were lost to followup. Fifty-six percent of the deaths and 46% of those lost to followup occurred in the first year of treatment. Male gender (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) was 3.26; 95% CI: 2.19–4.88); CD4 count ≤200 cells/μL (AHR 5.02; 95% CI: 2.03–12.39), tuberculosis (AHR 2.91; 95% CI: 2.11–4.02); bed-ridden functional status (AHR 12.88; 95% CI: 8.19–20.26) were predictors of mortality, whereas only CD4 count <200 cells/μL (HR = 1.33; 95% CI: (0.95, 1.88) and ambulatory functional status (HR = 1.65; 95% CI: (1.22, 2.23) were significantly associated with LTF. Conclusion. Loss to followup and mortality in the first year following enrollment remain a challenge for retention of patients in care. Strengthening patient monitoring can improve patient retention AIDS care.