The way the world might be

Heavy use of equations impedes communication among biologists

Most research in biology is empirical, yet empirical studies rely fundamentally on theoretical work for generating testable predictions and interpreting observations. Despite this interdependence, many empirical studies build largely on other empirical studies with little direct reference to relevant theory, suggesting a failure of communication that may hinder scientific progress. To investigate the extent of this problem, we analyzed how the use of mathematical equations affects the scientific impact of studies in ecology and evolution. The density of equations in an article has a significant negative impact on citation rates, with papers receiving 28% fewer citations overall for each additional equation per page in the main text. Long, equation-dense papers tend to be more frequently cited by other theoretical papers, but this increase is outweighed by a sharp drop in citations from nontheoretical papers (35% fewer citations for each additional equation per page in the main text). In contrast, equations presented in an accompanying appendix do not lessen a paper's impact. Our analysis suggests possible strategies for enhancing the presentation of mathematical models to facilitate progress in disciplines that rely on the tight integration of theoretical and empirical work.

The implications of coevolutionary dynamics to host-parasite interactions

Due to the importance of infectious disease, there is a large body of theory on the evolution of either hosts or, more commonly, parasites. Here we present a fully coevolutionary model of a host-parasite system that includes ecological dynamics that feed back into the coevolutionary outcome, and we show that highly virulent parasites may evolve due to the coevolutionary process. Parasite evolution is very sensitive to evolution in the host, and virulence fluctuates substantially when mutation rates vary between host and parasite. Evolutionary branching in the host leads to parasites increasing their virulence, and small changes in host resistance drive large changes in parasite virulence. Evolutionary branching in one species does not cause branching in the other. Our work emphasizes the importance of considering coevolutionary dynamics and shows that certain highly virulent parasites may result from responses to host evolution.

Review. Sympatric, parapatric or allopatric: the most important way to classify speciation?

The most common classification of modes of speciation begins with the spatial context in which divergence occurs: sympatric, parapatric or allopatric. This classification is unsatisfactory because it divides a continuum into discrete categories, concentrating attention on the extremes, and it subordinates other dimensions on which speciation processes vary, such as the forces driving differentiation and the genetic basis of reproductive isolation. It also ignores the fact that speciation is a prolonged process that commonly has phases in different spatial contexts. We use the example of local adaptation and partial reproductive isolation in the intertidal gastropod Littorina saxatilis to illustrate the inadequacy of the spatial classification of speciation modes. Parallel divergence in shell form in response to similar environmental gradients in England, Spain and Sweden makes this an excellent model system. However, attempts to demonstrate 'incipient' and 'sympatric' speciation involve speculation about the future and the past. We suggest that it is more productive to study the current balance between local adaptation and gene flow, the interaction between components of reproductive isolation and the genetic basis of differentiation.

Evolution of flowering decisions in a stochastic, density-dependent environment

Demography is central to both ecology and evolution, and characterizing the feedback between ecology and evolution is critical for understanding organisms' life histories and how these might evolve through time. Here, we show how, by combining a range of theoretical approaches with the statistical analysis of individually structured databases, accurate prediction of life history decisions is possible in natural density-regulated populations undergoing large fluctuations in demographic rates from year to year. Our predictions are remarkably accurate and statistically well defined. In addition, we show that the predicted trait values are evolutionarily and convergence stable and that protected polymorphisms are possible.

The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data?

Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.