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Trevisan G, Morris P, Silva GS, Nakkirt P, Wang C, Main R, Zimmerman J. Active Participatory Regional Surveillance for Notifiable Swine Pathogens. Animals (Basel) 2024; 14:233. [PMID: 38254402 PMCID: PMC10812401 DOI: 10.3390/ani14020233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2023] [Revised: 12/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
We evaluated an active participatory design for the regional surveillance of notifiable swine pathogens based on testing 10 samples collected by farm personnel in each participating farm. To evaluate the performance of the design, public domain software was used to simulate the introduction and spread of a pathogen among 17,521 farms in a geographic region of 1,615,246 km2. Using the simulated pathogen spread data, the probability of detecting ≥ 1 positive farms in the region was estimated as a function of the percent of participating farms (20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100%), farm-level detection probability (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%), and regional farm-level prevalence. At 0.1% prevalence (18 positive farms among 17,521 farms) and a farm-level detection probability of 30%, the participatory surveillance design achieved 67%, 90%, and 97% probability of detecting ≥ 1 positive farms in the region when producer participation was 20%, 40%, and 60%, respectively. The cost analysis assumed that 10 individual pig samples per farm would be pooled into 2 samples (5 pigs each) for testing. Depending on the specimen collected (serum or swab sample) and test format (nucleic acid or antibody detection), the cost per round of sampling ranged from EUR 0.017 to EUR 0.032 (USD 0.017 to USD 0.034) per pig in the region. Thus, the analysis suggested that an active regional participatory surveillance design could achieve detection at low prevalence and at a sustainable cost.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovani Trevisan
- Department of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Patterson Hall, 1800 Christensen Drive, Ames, IA 50011-1134, USA; (G.T.); (G.S.S.); (C.W.); (R.M.)
| | - Paul Morris
- Department of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Snedecor Hall, 2438 Osborn Drive, Ames, IA 50011-4009, USA; (P.M.); (P.N.)
| | - Gustavo S. Silva
- Department of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Patterson Hall, 1800 Christensen Drive, Ames, IA 50011-1134, USA; (G.T.); (G.S.S.); (C.W.); (R.M.)
| | - Pormate Nakkirt
- Department of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Snedecor Hall, 2438 Osborn Drive, Ames, IA 50011-4009, USA; (P.M.); (P.N.)
| | - Chong Wang
- Department of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Patterson Hall, 1800 Christensen Drive, Ames, IA 50011-1134, USA; (G.T.); (G.S.S.); (C.W.); (R.M.)
- Department of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Snedecor Hall, 2438 Osborn Drive, Ames, IA 50011-4009, USA; (P.M.); (P.N.)
| | - Rodger Main
- Department of Veterinary Diagnostic and Production Animal Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Patterson Hall, 1800 Christensen Drive, Ames, IA 50011-1134, USA; (G.T.); (G.S.S.); (C.W.); (R.M.)
| | - Jeffrey Zimmerman
- Department of Statistics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University, Snedecor Hall, 2438 Osborn Drive, Ames, IA 50011-4009, USA; (P.M.); (P.N.)
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