Degree of tumor shrinkage following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: a potential predictor for complete pathological response in esophageal cancer?

Enhancing Prediction for Tumor Pathologic Response to Neoadjuvant Immunochemotherapy in Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer by Dynamic Parameters from Clinical Assessments

To develop accurate and accessible prediction methods for assessing pathologic response following NICT prior to surgery, we conducted a retrospective study including 137 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent surgery after two cycles of NICT between January 2019 and March 2022 at our center. We collected clinical parameters to evaluate the dynamic changes in the primary tumor. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the correlations between these parameters and the pathologic response of the primary tumor. Subsequently, we constructed prediction models for pCR and MPR using multivariate logistic regression. The MPR prediction Model 2 was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated using an independent cohort from our center. The univariate logistic analysis revealed significant differences in clinical parameters reflecting tumor regression among patients with varying pathologic responses. The clinical models based on these assessments demonstrated excellent predictive performance, with the training cohort achieving a C-index of 0.879 for pCR and 0.912 for MPR, while the testing cohort also achieved a C-index of 0.912 for MPR. Notably, the MPR prediction Model 2, with a threshold cut-off of 0.74, exhibited 92.7% specificity and greater than 70% sensitivity, indicating a low rate of underestimating residual tumors. In conclusion, our study demonstrated the high accuracy of clinical assessment-based models in pathologic response prediction, aiding in decision-making regarding organ preservation and radiotherapy adjustments after induction immunochemotherapy.

Intratreatment Tumor Volume Change During Definitive Chemoradiotherapy is Predictive for Treatment Outcome of Patients with Esophageal Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to assess the predictive value of tumor volume changes of esophagus evaluated by serial computed tomography (CT) scans before, during, and after radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for treatment outcomes in patients with esophageal cancer (EC).

METHODS

Fifty-three patients with histologically confirmed EC were included for analysis. Gross tumor volume of esophagus (GTVe) was manually contoured on the CT images before treatment, at a twentieth fraction of radiotherapy, at completion of CRT and three months after treatment. GTVe reduction ratio (RR) was calculated to reveal changes of tumor volume by time. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival and for univariate analysis. The Cox regression model was performed for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Predominant reduction of GTVe was observed during the first 20 fractions of radiotherapy. Age, pretreatment GTVe, GTVe three months after treatment and GTVe RR at twentieth fraction of radiotherapy were all significantly associated with overall survival (OS) in a univariate analysis. Gender was correlated with locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS) in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that GTVe ≤20 cc, GTVe RR at twentieth fraction of radiotherapy ≥35% were positive predictive factors of OS and pretreatment GTVe ≤20 cc was prognostic for a favorable LRRFS.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment tumor volume and intratreatment volume reduction ratio are reliable prognostic factors for esophageal cancer treated with definitive CRT.

Detecting Pathological Complete Response in Esophageal Cancer after Neoadjuvant Therapy Based on Imaging Techniques: A Diagnostic Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Up to 32% of patients with esophageal cancer show a pathological complete response (ypCR) after neoadjuvant therapy. To prevent overtreatment, the indication to perform esophagectomy in these patients should be reconsidered. Implementing an organ-preserving strategy for patients with ypCR requires an accurate assessment of residual disease after neoadjuvant treatment. The aim of this study was to systematically review the effectiveness of imaging techniques used for detection of ypCR after neoadjuvant therapy but before resection in patients with esophageal cancer.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of the Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases was performed from January 1, 2000, to December 13, 2017. Eligible studies were diagnostic studies that compared results of imaging modalities after neoadjuvant therapy to histopathological findings in the resection specimen after esophagectomy. Methodological quality was assessed by the Cochrane Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies, version 2, model. Primary outcome measures were true positive, false-positive, false-negative, and true negative values of imaging techniques predicting ypCR. A meta-analysis was performed by pooling sensitivities and specificities by using a bivariate model.

RESULTS

A total of 4420 articles were identified. After exclusion of irrelevant titles and abstracts, 360 articles were reviewed in full text. In total, four imaging modalities (computed tomography [CT], positron emission tomography [PET-CT], endoscopic ultrasound [EUS], and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) were used for restaging. The meta-analysis was conducted with data from 56 studies involving 3625 patients. The pooled sensitivities of CT, PET-CT, EUS, and MRI for detecting ypCR were 0.35, 0.62, 0.01 and 0.80, respectively, whereas the pooled specificities were 0.83, 0.73, 0.99, and 0.83, respectively. The positive predictive value in detecting ypCR was 0.47 for CT, 0.41 for PET-CT, not applicable for EUS, and 0.61 for MRI.

CONCLUSION

Current imaging modalities such as CT, PET-CT, and EUS seem to be insufficiently accurate to identify complete responders. More accurate diagnostic tests are needed to improve restaging accuracy for patients with esophageal cancer.