Effects of physical function trajectories on later long-term care utilization among the Taiwanese elderly

Trajectories of Disability and Related Factors in Korean Adults Aged ≥75 years

This study aimed to identify distinct trajectories of activities of daily living (ADL) disability in older adults aged ≥75 years over 6 years. A growth mixture model and the multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to identify different disability trajectories and to investigate each trajectory. Four distinct disability trajectories were identified: low, moderate, high, and progressive. Activity restriction due to fear of falling, being underweight, impaired vision, and impaired cognition were highly associated with the progressive groups, compared with the low disability group. Activity restriction due to fear of falling, depression, impaired cognition, and poor subjective health status were associated with moderate and high disability. These findings contribute to increasing the understanding of ADL disability among older adults.

Factors influencing the demands for home and community-based care services among older adults living alone in China

The number of older adults living alone in China is rising sharply. This study aimed to explore the demand for home and community-based care services (HCBS) and related influencing factors of older adults living alone. The data were extracted from the 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Guided by the Andersen model, binary logistic regressions were used to analyze the influencing factors of HCBS demand from the aspect of predisposing, enabling and need variables. Results show that there were significant differences between urban and rural areas for provision of HCBS. HCBS demand of older adults living alone was influenced by distinct factors including age, residence, income source, economic status, availability of services, loneliness, physical function and number of chronic diseases. Implications for HCBS developments are discussed.

Interpretable classifiers for prediction of disability trajectories using a nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

To explore the heterogeneous disability trajectories and construct explainable machine learning models for effective prediction of long-term disability trajectories and understanding the mechanisms of predictions among the elderly Chinese at community level.

METHODS

This study retrospectively collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study between 2002 and 2018. A total of 4149 subjects aged 65 + in 2002 with completed activities of daily living (ADL) information for at least three waves were included. The mixed growth model was used to identify disability trajectories, and five machine learning models were further established to predict disability trajectories using epidemiological variables. An explainable approach was deployed to understand the model's decisions.

RESULTS

Three distinct disability trajectories, including normal class (77.3%), progressive class (15.5%), and high-onset class (7.2%), were identified for three-class prediction. The latter two were further merged into abnormal class, accompanied by normal class for two-class prediction. Machine learning, especially random forest and extreme gradient boosting achieved good performance in both two tasks. ADL, age, leisure activity, cognitive function, and blood pressure were key predictors.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that machine learning showed good performance and maybe of additional value in analyzing quality indicators in predicting disability trajectories, thereby providing basis to personalize intervention measures.

Association Between Disability Trajectory and Health Care Service Utilization Among Older Adults in China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify the heterogeneous disability trajectories among older Chinese adults and examine the association between disability trajectories and health care service utilization.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A community-based study including older adults aged ≥65 years from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.

METHODS

Disability was assessed by the difficulties in activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living between 2002 and 2018. Health care utilization was measured by the expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services in 2018. Growth mixture modeling was conducted to estimate heterogeneous disability trajectories. A 2-part model was used to analyze the association of disability trajectories and health care utilization. Covariates were included based on Andersen's behavioral model.

RESULTS

Three classes of disability trajectories were identified: the progressive (7.9%), late-onset (13.7%), and normal classes (78.4%). Older adults who followed the late-onset trajectory of disability were more likely to use inpatient services compared with the normal class (odds ratio = 1.47, P < .010), after controlling potential confounders. Compared with the normal class, the progressive class on average spent US$145.94 more annually (45.2% higher) on outpatient services (P < .010) and $738.99 more annually (72.6% higher) on inpatient services (P < .001); the late-onset class reported higher annual expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services of $215.94 (66.9% higher) and $1405.00 (138.0% higher), respectively (all P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Heterogeneous disability trajectories exhibited distinct health care service utilization patterns among older Chinese adults. Older adults affected by late-onset disability incurred the highest health care needs. These findings provide valuable policy-relevant evidence for reducing health care burden among older adults.

Age trajectories of disability in instrumental activities of daily living and disability-free life expectancy among middle-aged and older adults in Taiwan: an 11-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to identify the age trajectories of disability in instrumental activities of daily life (IADLs) over 11 years and their correlates, and to estimate disability-free life expectancy for identified trajectory groups in middle-aged and older adults.

METHODS

We included 3118 participants aged 50 and over without IADL limitations at baseline from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study in Aging, followed across 1996-2007. We used group-based trajectory models to identify age trajectories of IADL disability, and multiple logistic regressions to examine their correlates. Sullivan method was used to compute IADL disability-free life expectancy for trajectory groups at different ages.

RESULTS

We identified two trajectories groups: 67.7% of participants classified as the late-onset group and 32.3% as the early-onset group. Female (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.93, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.54, 2.41), not being employed (aOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1,08, 1,56), poor/fair self-rated health (aOR: 1.31, 95% CI:1.09, 1.58), hypertension (aOR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.63), diabetes mellitus (aOR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.72, 3.07), arthritis (aOR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.81), stroke (aOR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.04, 4.70), and one-point increase in a 10-item depression scale (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06) were associated with early-onset of disability, whereas higher education (aOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.81), regular exercise (aOR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.93), and participating voluntary or club activities (aOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.93) related to the late-onset. IADL disability-free life expectancies at 65 years old in the late-onset group were 15.6 years for women and 14.4 for men, respectively, comprising 56.6 and 64.2% of their remaining life, whereas those of the early-onset group were 4.8 and 4.6 years for women and men respectively, comprising 22.5 and 27.2% of remaining life.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-onset of IADLs disability may correlate to chronic conditions, and engagement in employment, exercise, and social participation were associated with a reduced risk of early disability in IADLs.

Factors Influencing Long-Term Care Service Needs among the Elderly Based on the Latest Anderson Model: A Case Study from the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

The rapid growth of population aging makes providing adequate long-term care (LTC) services for the elderly a serious social dilemma in China. Thus, it is necessary to carry out a theoretical discussion on the LTC service needs of the elderly and find out their influencing factors. With four regions of the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River as the sample case, this study aims to explore the factors that affect LTC service needs of the elderly in the frame of the latest Anderson Model, which added psychosocial factors to predisposing characteristics, enabling factors, and need factors in the old version. Some interesting results have been found, for example, self-image evaluation is composed of several factors such as general physical health, attitude towards life, or psychosocial states. Finally, sub-analyses—namely, by age, by gender, and by educational level—were carried out since the choice of different long-term care service patterns is related to different age/gender/education groups.

The Long-Term Impact of Functional Disability on Hospitalization Spending in Singapore

Singapore is one of the fastest-aging populations due to increased life expectancy and lowered fertility. Lifestyle changes increase the burden of chronic diseases and disability. These have important implications for social protection systems. The goal of this paper is to model future functional disability and healthcare expenditures based on current trends. To project the health, disability and hospitalization spending of future elders, we adapted the Future Elderly Model (FEM) to Singapore. The FEM is a dynamic Markov microsimulation model developed in the US. Our main source of population data was the Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) consisting of 63,000 respondents followed up over three waves from 1993 to 2010. The FEM model enables us to investigate the effects of disability compounded over the lifecycle and hospitalization spending, while adjusting for competing risk of multi-comorbidities. Results indicate that by 2050, 1 in 6 elders in Singapore will have at least one ADL disability and 1 in 3 elders will have at least one IADL disability, an increase from 1 in 12 elders and 1 in 5 elders respectively in 2014. The highest prevalence of functional disability will be in those aged 85 years and above. Lifetime hospitalization spending of elders aged 55 and above is US$24,400 (30.2%) higher among people with functional disability compared to those without disability. Policies that successfully tackle diabetes and promote healthy living may reduce or delay the onset of disability, leading to potential saving. In addition, further technological improvements may reduce the financial burden of disability.

Activities of daily living trajectories among institutionalised older adults: A prospective study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To examine activities of daily living trajectory groups among older residents in Taiwan, and to determine the relative risks of demographic characteristics and health status in explaining the trajectory group of activities of daily living.

BACKGROUND

Activity of daily living is a crucial indicator of health status for institutionalised older adults. activities of daily living is a dynamic process and has differences in trajectory groups.

DESIGN

This study was a 3-year longitudinal analysis of long-term care facility residents in Taiwan.

METHODS

A total of 364 older residents completed the entire research process. We used group-based trajectory modelling and multinomial logistic models for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The result of this study revealed that three activities of daily living trajectory groups among older residents exhibited high dependency with gradually declining function (Group 1, 22.53%), low dependency with gradually declining function (Group 2, 43.13%) and persistent independent function (Group 3, 34.34%). Compared with Group 3, Group 1 was related to the following potential risk factors: older age, female, nonmainland China born and a married status. After considering resident health status in the analysis, three significant factors emerged for Group 1: the number of chronic diseases (odds ratio = 2.45), depressive symptoms (odds ratio = 1.71) and cognitive status (odds ratio = 83.11). Compared with Group 3, Group 2 was related to older age. After adding resident health status to the analysis, two significant factors of Group 2 emerged: the number of chronic diseases (odds ratio = 1.68) and depressive symptoms (odds ratio = 1.74).

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study indicated that health factors, including the number of chronic diseases, cognitive status and depressive symptoms, were more likely to contribute to the development of a decline pattern of activities of daily living.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Appropriate exercise programmes and physical activities, according to residents' personal characteristics and activities of daily living status, is crucial for improving physical functioning, alleviating depression and cognitive defects in institutionalised older adults.

Factors associated with older people's long-term care needs: a case study adopting the expanded version of the Anderson Model in China

Background

Alongside changes in society and the economy, the family’s function of taking care of older people is weakening and the formal care mode is becoming more accepted. Older Chinese people are facing diverse choices of long-term care (LTC) modes. Acknowledging this situation, to optimize older people’s arrangements for LTC services and improve quality of later life, this study sets out to explore and make theoretical sense of older people’s LTC needs and to identify the factors influencing their LTC needs.

Methods

Questionnaire data were collected from 1090 participants in four Chinese cities in 2014. A conceptual framework was established based on the Anderson Model (i.e., predisposing factors, enabling factors, and need factors), and further strengthened by adding several psychosocial factors (i.e. intergenerational relationships, unmet care service needs, and self-image). Multinomial logistic regression was adopted to explore the influencing factors of LTC needs. Participants choosing home-and-community-based care were regarded as the reference group.

Results

After controlling for predisposing, enabling, and need factors, those with better self-image (OR = 1.027, p = 0.021) and fewer unmet care service needs (OR = 0.936, p = 0.009) were identified as being more likely to choose family care; those with less close intergenerational relationships (OR = 0.676, p = 0.019), fewer unmet care service needs (OR = 0.912, p = 0.027), and better self-image (OR = 1.044, p = 0.026) were more likely to choose institutional care. Gender- and age-related differences in the determinants of LTC needs were observed.

Conclusions

The findings of this study suggest that professionals and service providers should pay more attention to the important role of psychosocial factors in affecting older people’s LTC needs and be more sensitive to gender- and age-related differences. Effective efforts to improve intergenerational relationships, to further develop care services for older people, and to foster a more positive image of aging should be emphasized.