It’s about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild

Assessing the 'Small Population' Paradigm: The Effects of Stochasticity on Evolutionary Change and Population Growth in a Bird Metapopulation

Habitat loss is leading to smaller fragmented populations, increasing their susceptibility to stochasticity. Quantifying the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on population dynamics and the contribution of selection versus drift to phenotypic change is essential to assess the potential consequences of environmental change. We examined how stochasticity influenced population growth and body mass changes over 22 years in 11 insular house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations. Environmental stochasticity induced synchrony in growth rates across populations while also causing substantial island-specific fluctuations. Additionally, demographic stochasticity led to larger annual growth rate fluctuations in smaller populations. Although heavier individuals generally had higher fitness, we detected non-directional evolutionary change in body mass, driven by drift rather than selection. Our study provides a unique quantitative assessment of the 'small population' paradigm, highlighting the importance of theoretically driven analyses of long-term individual-based data to understand the drivers of phenotypic evolution and a population's long-term viability.

Evolution of plant specialized metabolites: beyond ecological drivers

Plants produce a highly diverse array of specialized metabolites. Traditionally, the evolution of these metabolites has been studied primarily through the lens of plants' ecological interactions with herbivores, pathogens, and pollinators, as many of them exhibit defense and/or attraction functions. However, increasing evidence suggests that many specialized metabolites, along with their precursors, also act as cellular signals that regulate cell growth and differentiation. We propose that these intrinsic functions are at least equally important factors in shaping the evolution of plant chemical defenses. We further discuss how future research that combines modern single-cell techniques and evolutionary genomics will provide novel insights into the evolutionary process of specialized metabolism diversification.

Long-term studies provide unique insights into evolution

From experimental evolution in the laboratory to sustained measurements of natural selection in the wild, long-term studies have revolutionized our understanding of evolution. By directly investigating evolutionary dynamics in real time, these approaches have provided unparallelled insights into the complex interplay between evolutionary process and pattern. These approaches can reveal oscillations, stochastic fluctuations and systematic trends that unfold over extended periods, expose critical time lags between environmental shifts and population responses, and illuminate how subtle effects may accumulate into significant evolutionary patterns. Long-term studies can also reveal otherwise cryptic trends that unfold over extended periods, and offer the potential for serendipity: observing rare events that spur new evolutionary hypotheses and research directions. Despite the challenges of conducting long-term research, exacerbated by modern funding landscapes favouring short-term projects, the contributions of long-term studies to evolutionary biology are indispensable. This is particularly true in our rapidly changing, human-dominated world, where such studies offer a crucial window into how environmental changes and altered species interactions shape evolutionary trajectories. In this Review article, we showcase the groundbreaking discoveries of long-term evolutionary studies, underscoring their crucial role in advancing our understanding of the complex nature of evolution across multiple systems and timescales.

Predicting Fitness-Related Traits Using Gene Expression and Machine Learning

Evolution by natural selection occurs at its most basic through the change in frequencies of alleles; connecting those genomic targets to phenotypic selection is an important goal for evolutionary biology in the genomics era. The relative abundance of gene products expressed in a tissue can be considered a phenotype intermediate to the genes and genomic regulatory elements themselves and more traditionally measured macroscopic phenotypic traits such as flowering time, size, or growth. The high dimensionality, low sample size nature of transcriptomic sequence data is a double-edged sword, however, as it provides abundant information but makes traditional statistics difficult. Machine learning (ML) has many features which handle high-dimensional data well and is thus useful in genetic sequence applications. Here, we examined the association of fitness components with gene expression data in Ipomoea hederacea (Ivyleaf morning glory) grown under field conditions. We combine the results of two different ML approaches and find evidence that expression of photosynthesis-related genes is likely under selection. We also find that genes related to stress and light responses were overall important in predicting fitness. With this study, we demonstrate the utility of ML models for smaller samples and their potential application for understanding natural selection.

Natural selection on floral volatiles and other traits can change with snowmelt timing and summer precipitation

Climate change is disrupting floral traits that mediate mutualistic and antagonistic species interactions. Plastic responses of these traits to multiple shifting conditions may be adaptive, depending on natural selection in new environments. We manipulated snowmelt date over three seasons (3-11 d earlier) in factorial combination with growing-season precipitation (normal, halved, or doubled) to measure plastic responses of volatile emissions and other floral traits in Ipomopsis aggregata. We quantified how precipitation and early snowmelt affected selection on traits by seed predators and pollinators. Within years, floral emissions did not respond to precipitation treatments but shifted with snowmelt treatment depending on the year. Across 3 yr, emissions correlated with both precipitation and snowmelt date. These effects were driven by changes in soil moisture. Selection on several traits changed with earlier snowmelt or reduced precipitation, in some cases driven by predispersal seed predation. Floral trait plasticity was not generally adaptive. Floral volatile emissions shifted in the face of two effects of climate change, and the new environments modulated selection imposed by interacting species. The complexity of the responses underscores the need for more studies of how climate change will affect floral volatiles and other floral traits.

Three modes of evolution? Remarks on rates of evolution and time scaling

Rates of evolution get smaller when they are measured over longer time intervals. As first shown by Gingerich, rates of morphological change measured from fossil time series show a robust minus-one scaling with time span, implying that evolutionary changes are just as large when measured over a hundred years as when measured over a hundred-thousand years. On even longer time scales, however, the scaling shifts toward a minus-half exponent consistent with evolution behaving as Brownian motion, as commonly observed in phylogenetic comparative studies. Here, I discuss how such scaling patterns arise, and I derive the patterns expected from standard stochastic models of evolution. I argue that observed shifts cannot be easily explained by simple univariate models, but require shifts in mode of evolution as time scale is changing. To illustrate this idea, I present a hypothesis about three distinct, but connected, modes of evolution. I analyze the scaling patterns predicted from this, and use the results to discuss how rates of evolution should be measured and interpreted. I argue that distinct modes of evolution at different time scales act to decouple micro- and macroevolution, and criticize various attempts at extrapolating from one to the other.

Observing character displacement from process to pattern in a novel vertebrate community

Ecological character displacement, whereby shifts in resource use in the presence of competing species leads to adaptive evolutionary divergence, is widely considered an important process in community assembly and adaptive radiation. However, most evidence for character displacement has been inferred from macro-scale geographic or phylogenetic patterns; direct tests of the underlying hypothesis of divergent natural selection driving character displacement in the wild are rare. Here, we document character displacement between two ecologically similar lizards (Anolis sagrei and A. cristatellus) experiencing novel contact. We identify directional selection during the incipient stages of sympatry in a new community that corresponds to repeated trait divergence across multiple established sympatric communities. By identifying the role of natural selection as character displacement unfolds, we connect how natural selection operating at short timescales may drive broader patterns of trait distributions at larger spatial and temporal scales.

Evolutionary and Ecological Processes Determining the Properties of the Matrix

AbstractThe G matrix is the matrix of additive genetic variances and covariances for a vector of phenotypes. Here we apply the classical theory for the balance among selection, genetic drift, and mutations to find the contributions to G from each locus for populations at stasis. The fitness is approximated by a linear function of phenotypes, with coefficients affected by environmental fluctuations. We show that the G matrix can be decomposed into four additive components generated by selection, drift, mutations, and environmental fluctuations. Selection is on average counteracted by the other three processes included in Fisher's concept of deterioration of the environment, generating considerable changes in mean phenotypes. The theory illustrates that neither Fisher's fundamental theorem nor Lande's classical gradient formula is sufficient for assessing adaptive changes through time unless the deteriorations are corrected for. This applies for populations at stasis, but also for populations that are subject to long-term evolutionary changes. The theory also indicates several possible comparative studies for investigations of deteriorating effects. Our analyses also suggest that the factor loadings to the eigenvector of the G matrix with the lowest eigenvalue will rather accurately indicate the relative contributions from different phenotype components to fitness. This is information notoriously difficult to obtain in natural populations.

Pollinator-mediated selection on Krameria oil flowers: a flower-pollinator fit adaptation to an atypical oil-collecting behaviour?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spatial variation in plant-pollinator interactions is a key driver of floral trait diversification. A so far overlooked qualitative aspect of this variation is the behavioural component on flowers that relates to the pollinator fit. We tested the hypothesis that variation in pollinator behaviour influences the geographical pattern of phenotypic selection across the distribution range of the oil-producing Krameria grandiflora (Krameriaceae). This variation mainly involves the presence or absence of flag petal grasping, which is only performed by representatives of Centris (Centridini, Apidae), an oil-collecting bee group highly associated with Krameriaceae pollination.

METHODS

We quantified variation in floral traits and fitness and estimated pollinator-mediated selection in five populations at a large geographical scale comprising the entire species range. In each population, we sampled individual pollen arrival and germination as a fitness measure, indicating pollination success and pollination performance, which was then relativized and regressed on standardized flower-pollinator fit (flag-stigma distance), advertisement (sepal length) and reward (oil volume) traits. This generated mean-scaled selection gradients used to calculate geographical selection dispersion.

KEY RESULTS

Unexpectedly, stronger selection was detected on the flower-pollinator fit trait in populations highly associated with the absence of flag petal grasping. Geographical variation in selection was mainly attributed to differential selection on the flag-stigma distance generating a selection mosaic. This may involve influences of a spatial variation in pollinator behaviour as well as composition and morphology.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the adaptive significance of the specialized flag petals of Krameria in the absence of the grasping behaviour and highlight the contribution of geographical variation in pollinator behaviour on flowers in driving selection mosaics, with implications for floral evolution, adaptation to pollinator fit and phenotypic diversity in specialized systems.

36-year study reveals stability of a wild wheat population across microhabitats

Long-term genetic studies of wild populations are very scarce, but are essential for connecting ecological and population genetics models, and for understanding the dynamics of biodiversity. We present a study of a wild wheat population sampled over a 36-year period at high spatial resolution. We genotyped 832 individuals from regular sampling along transects during the course of the experiment. Genotypes were clustered into ecological microhabitats over scales of tens of metres, and this clustering was remarkably stable over the 36 generations of the study. Simulations show that it is difficult to determine whether this spatial and temporal stability reflects extremely limited dispersal or fine-scale local adaptation to ecological parameters. Using a common-garden experiment, we showed that the genotypes found in distinct microhabitats differ phenotypically. Our results provide a rare insight into the population genetics of a natural population over a long monitoring period.

Unifying approaches from statistical genetics and phylogenetics for mapping phenotypes in structured populations

In both statistical genetics and phylogenetics, a major goal is to identify correlations between genetic loci or other aspects of the phenotype or environment and a focal trait. In these 2 fields, there are sophisticated but disparate statistical traditions aimed at these tasks. The disconnect between their respective approaches is becoming untenable as questions in medicine, conservation biology, and evolutionary biology increasingly rely on integrating data from within and among species, and once-clear conceptual divisions are becoming increasingly blurred. To help bridge this divide, we lay out a general model describing the covariance between the genetic contributions to the quantitative phenotypes of different individuals. Taking this approach shows that standard models in both statistical genetics (e.g., genome-wide association studies; GWAS) and phylogenetic comparative biology (e.g., phylogenetic regression) can be interpreted as special cases of this more general quantitative-genetic model. The fact that these models share the same core architecture means that we can build a unified understanding of the strengths and limitations of different methods for controlling for genetic structure when testing for associations. We develop intuition for why and when spurious correlations may occur analytically and conduct population-genetic and phylogenetic simulations of quantitative traits. The structural similarity of problems in statistical genetics and phylogenetics enables us to take methodological advances from one field and apply them in the other. We demonstrate by showing how a standard GWAS technique-including both the genetic relatedness matrix (GRM) as well as its leading eigenvectors, corresponding to the principal components of the genotype matrix, in a regression model-can mitigate spurious correlations in phylogenetic analyses. As a case study, we re-examine an analysis testing for coevolution of expression levels between genes across a fungal phylogeny and show that including eigenvectors of the covariance matrix as covariates decreases the false positive rate while simultaneously increasing the true positive rate. More generally, this work provides a foundation for more integrative approaches for understanding the genetic architecture of phenotypes and how evolutionary processes shape it.

Social selection analysis reveals limited effect of neighbors' traits in Tree swallows

Social interactions are ubiquitous in nature and can shape the fitness of individuals through social selection. This type of selection arises when phenotypes of neighbors influence the fitness of a focal individual. Quantifying social selection is crucial to better characterize the overall selective landscape. For example, if intraspecific competition is strong, traits that are beneficial for an individual could be detrimental to competitors. In this study, we quantified social selection acting on three key ecological traits (body mass, wing length, and laying date) in wild Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) females. We used reproductive success measured at three stages throughout the breeding season as fitness proxies to assess selection acting at those decisive moments. We also quantified the effects of environment on selection using measures of conspecifics' density, type of agricultural landscape, and presence of interspecific competitors. Overall, we found no strong evidence of social selection on these traits in our study system, although there were marginally nonsignificant selection gradients suggesting the positive effect of larger neighbors. Environmental variables affected reproductive success but did not strongly affect social selection gradients. Our study calls for more social selection estimates to be reported across environments to better understand its importance in wild populations.

Short-term fluctuating and long-term divergent selection on sympatric Monkeyflowers: insights from decade-spanning reciprocal transplants

Sympatric species are often locally adapted to distinct microhabitats. However, temporal variation may cause local maladaptation and species boundary breakdown, especially during extreme climatic events leading to episodic selection. Repeated reciprocal transplants can reveal the interplay between short and long-term patterns of natural selection. To examine evolutionary trajectories of sympatric Monkeyflowers adapted to different niches, Mimulus guttatus and M. laciniatus, we performed three replicated transplants and combined them with previous experiments to leverage a dataset of five transplants spanning 10 years. We performed phenotypic selection analyses on parents and hybrids in parental habitats in Yosemite NP, CA during years of drastically differing snowpack. If there is ecological isolation, then we predicted divergent phenotypic selection between habitats in line with species' differences and local adaptation. We found interannual fluctuations in phenotypic selection, often in unpredicted directions. However, a combined-year analysis detected longer-term divergent selection on flowering time, a key temporally isolating and adaptative trait, suggesting that selection may reinforce species boundaries despite short-term fluctuations. Finally, we found temporal variation in local adaptation with M. laciniatus locally adapted in low snowpack years, while an extremely high snowpack year contributed to average local maladaptation of M. guttatus.

Increasing environmental variability inhibits evolutionary rescue in a long-lived vertebrate

Evolutionary rescue, whereby adaptive evolutionary change rescues populations from extinction, is theorized to enable imperiled animal populations to persist under increasing anthropogenic change. Despite a large body of evidence in theoretical and laboratory settings, the potential for evolutionary rescue to be a viable adaptation process for free-ranging animals remains unknown. Here, we leverage a 38-year dataset following the fates of 53,959 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) to investigate whether a free-ranging vertebrate species can morphologically adapt to long-term environmental change sufficiently to promote population persistence. Despite strong selective pressures, we found that penguins did not adapt morphologically to long-term environmental changes, leading to projected population extirpation. Fluctuating selection benefited larger penguins in some environmental contexts, and smaller penguins in others, ultimately mitigating their ability to adapt under increasing environmental variability. Under future climate projections, we found that the species cannot be rescued by adaptation, suggesting similar constraints for other long-lived species. Such results reveal how fluctuating selection driven by environmental variability can inhibit adaptation under long-term environmental change. Our eco-evolutionary approach helps explain the lack of adaptation and evolutionary rescue in response to environmental change observed in many animal species.

Meta-analytical evidence for frequency-dependent selection across the tree of life

Explaining the maintenance of genetic variation in fitness-related traits within populations is a fundamental challenge in ecology and evolutionary biology. Frequency-dependent selection (FDS) is one mechanism that can maintain such variation, especially when selection favours rare variants (negative FDS). However, our general knowledge about the occurrence of FDS, its strength and direction remain fragmented, limiting general inferences about this important evolutionary process. We systematically reviewed the published literature on FDS and assembled a database of 747 effect sizes from 101 studies to analyse the occurrence, strength, and direction of FDS, and the factors that could explain heterogeneity in FDS. Using a meta-analysis, we found that overall, FDS is more commonly negative, although not significantly when accounting for phylogeny. An analysis of absolute values of effect sizes, however, revealed the widespread occurrence of modest FDS. However, negative FDS was only significant in laboratory experiments and non-significant in mesocosms and field-based studies. Moreover, negative FDS was stronger in studies measuring fecundity and involving resource competition over studies using other fitness components or focused on other ecological interactions. Our study unveils key general patterns of FDS and points in future promising research directions that can help us understand a long-standing fundamental problem in evolutionary biology and its consequences for demography and ecological dynamics.

Selective effect of winter weather on a songbird's morphology depends on individual sex and winter condition

Knowledge of the effect of harsh weather on the phenotypic traits of organisms is essential for understanding the environmental influence on phenotype evolution and holds implications for predicting how species respond to current climate change. For many birds, harsh weather in winter often imposes a strong selective effect on their survival, and only the individuals with certain phenotypes may survive. However, whether the selective effect on phenotype varies with winter weather conditions has been poorly investigated. Here, we explored the selective effect of winter weather on black-throated tit's (Aegithalos concinnus) morphological traits under winters with and without severe snowstorms. We found that for males, the sizes of their bills, heads and wings significantly affected their overwinter survival, but the effects varied with winter conditions. In relatively benign winters, males with smaller bill depths, smaller bill surface areas, and greater head lengths survived better; whereas, in winters with severe snowstorms, a reverse pattern was found. This phenomenon was likely driven by selection pressures from heat retention and foraging requirements, with their relative importance depending on winter conditions. Additionally, wing length was positively correlated with male survival and the relationship was stronger in harsher winters, which was probably due to longer wings' higher flight efficiency in adverse weather. By contrast, we found no correlation between morphological traits and survival in females. These results suggest a sex-specific and condition-dependent selective effect of environment on bird phenotypes, implying complicated interactions between different selection pressures and phenotype evolution.

A theory of measuring natural selection and genetic monitoring

Two methods have been compared for determining the value of natural selection in the natural populations. The first method, based on the FST-statistics, employs the dependence of genetic diversity of a species on the value of gene flow between subpopulations of the species, derived from the assumption that all the mutations are close to selective neutrality, and subpopulations effect each other equally. Susceptibility to selection is estimated by the degree of deviation from this relationship between genetic diversity and gene flow in certain species. The second method is based on the probability theory and involves comparison between stabilities of the forms, competing in the population, which is computed using the data about fluctuations in their occurrence in several generations. As applied to the problems of genetic monitoring of rare and valuable species, the first method can be employed for express-assessment of susceptibility of a species to rapid intraspecific changes. The second method is suitable for a long-term and in-depth genetic monitoring of the species subjected to extremely intense natural selection of a disruptive or stabilizing form, which were revealed using the first method. There is a lack of long-term observations of intraspecific genetic variation of rare and protected species. The need for funds that finance long-term genetic research is substantiated.

The predictive power of genetic variation

New analyses show that trait variability links evolution across vastly different timescales.

Variation and plasticity in life-history traits and fitness of wild Arabidopsis thaliana populations are not related to their genotypic and ecological diversity

BACKGROUND

Despite its implications for population dynamics and evolution, the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation in wild populations remains unclear. Here, we estimated variation and plasticity in life-history traits and fitness of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in two common garden experiments that differed in environmental conditions. We used up to 306 maternal inbred lines from six Iberian populations characterized by low and high genotypic (based on whole-genome sequences) and ecological (vegetation type) diversity.

RESULTS

Low and high genotypic and ecological diversity was found in edge and core Iberian environments, respectively. Given that selection is expected to be stronger in edge environments and that ecological diversity may enhance both phenotypic variation and plasticity, we expected genotypic diversity to be positively associated with phenotypic variation and plasticity. However, maternal lines, irrespective of the genotypic and ecological diversity of their population of origin, exhibited a substantial amount of phenotypic variation and plasticity for all traits. Furthermore, all populations harbored maternal lines with canalization (robustness) or sensitivity in response to harsher environmental conditions in one of the two experiments.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we conclude that the environmental attributes of each population probably determine their genotypic diversity, but all populations maintain substantial phenotypic variation and plasticity for all traits, which represents an asset to endure in changing environments.

Unifying approaches from statistical genetics and phylogenetics for mapping phenotypes in structured populations

In both statistical genetics and phylogenetics, a major goal is to identify correlations between genetic loci or other aspects of the phenotype or environment and a focal trait. In these two fields, there are sophisticated but disparate statistical traditions aimed at these tasks. The disconnect between their respective approaches is becoming untenable as questions in medicine, conservation biology, and evolutionary biology increasingly rely on integrating data from within and among species, and once-clear conceptual divisions are becoming increasingly blurred. To help bridge this divide, we derive a general model describing the covariance between the genetic contributions to the quantitative phenotypes of different individuals. Taking this approach shows that standard models in both statistical genetics (e.g., Genome-Wide Association Studies; GWAS) and phylogenetic comparative biology (e.g., phylogenetic regression) can be interpreted as special cases of this more general quantitative-genetic model. The fact that these models share the same core architecture means that we can build a unified understanding of the strengths and limitations of different methods for controlling for genetic structure when testing for associations. We develop intuition for why and when spurious correlations may occur using analytical theory and conduct population-genetic and phylogenetic simulations of quantitative traits. The structural similarity of problems in statistical genetics and phylogenetics enables us to take methodological advances from one field and apply them in the other. We demonstrate this by showing how a standard GWAS technique-including both the genetic relatedness matrix (GRM) as well as its leading eigenvectors, corresponding to the principal components of the genotype matrix, in a regression model-can mitigate spurious correlations in phylogenetic analyses. As a case study of this, we re-examine an analysis testing for co-evolution of expression levels between genes across a fungal phylogeny, and show that including covariance matrix eigenvectors as covariates decreases the false positive rate while simultaneously increasing the true positive rate. More generally, this work provides a foundation for more integrative approaches for understanding the genetic architecture of phenotypes and how evolutionary processes shape it.

Fluctuating selection maintains distinct species phenotypes in an ecological community in the wild

Species' phenotypic characteristics often remain unchanged over long stretches of geological time. Stabilizing selection-in which fitness is highest for intermediate phenotypes and lowest for the extremes-has been widely invoked as responsible for this pattern. At the community level, such stabilizing selection acting individually on co-occurring species is expected to produce a rugged fitness landscape on which different species occupy distinct fitness peaks. However, even with an explosion of microevolutionary field studies over the past four decades, evidence for persistent stabilizing selection driving long-term stasis is lacking. Nonetheless, biologists continue to invoke stabilizing selection as a major factor explaining macroevolutionary patterns. Here, by directly measuring natural selection in the wild, we identified a complex community-wide fitness surface in which four Anolis lizard species each occupy a distinct fitness peak close to their mean phenotype. The presence of local fitness optima within species, and fitness valleys between species, presents a barrier to adaptive evolutionary change and acts to maintain species differences through time. However, instead of continuously operating stabilizing selection, we found that species were maintained on these peaks by the combination of many independent periods among which selection fluctuated in form, strength, direction, or existence and in which stabilizing selection rarely occurred. Our results suggest that lack of substantial phenotypic evolutionary change through time may be the result of selection, but not persistent stabilizing selection as classically envisioned.

Temporal Variation in Selection Influences Microgeographic Local Adaptation

AbstractEcological heterogeneity can lead to local adaptation when populations exhibit fitness trade-offs among habitats. However, the degree to which local adaptation is affected by the spatial and temporal scale of environmental variation is poorly understood. A multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment was performed with populations of the annual plant Leptosiphon parviflorus living on adjacent serpentine and nonserpentine soil. Local adaptation over this small geographic scale was observed, but there were differences in the temporal variability of selection across habitats. On serpentine soil, the local population had a consistently large survival advantage, presumably as a result of the temporal stability in selection imposed by soil cation content. In contrast, a fecundity advantage was observed for the sandstone population on its native soil type but only in the two study years with the highest rainfall. A manipulative greenhouse experiment demonstrated that the fitness advantage of the sandstone population in its native soil type depends critically on water availability. The temporal variability in local adaptation driven by variation in precipitation suggests that continued drought conditions have the potential to erode local adaptation in these populations. These results show how different selective factors can influence spatial and temporal patterns of variation in fitness trade-offs.

Contemporary changes in phenotypic variation, and the potential consequences for eco-evolutionary dynamics

Most studies assessing rates of phenotypic change focus on population mean trait values, whereas a largely overlooked additional component is changes in population trait variation. Theoretically, eco-evolutionary dynamics mediated by such changes in trait variation could be as important as those mediated by changes in trait means. To date, however, no study has comprehensively summarised how phenotypic variation is changing in contemporary populations. Here, we explore four questions using a large database: How do changes in trait variances compare to changes in trait means? Do different human disturbances have different effects on trait variance? Do different trait types have different effects on changes in trait variance? Do studies that established a genetic basis for trait change show different patterns from those that did not? We find that changes in variation are typically small; yet we also see some very large changes associated with particular disturbances or trait types. We close by interpreting and discussing the implications of our findings in the context of eco-evolutionary studies.

Selection on weapon allometry in the wild

Allometry is the scaling relationship between a trait and body size. This relationship can often explain considerable morphological variation within and among species. Nevertheless, much remains unknown about the factors that underlie allometric patterns. For example, when different allometric relationships are observed amongst closely related species, these differences are regularly considered to be products of selection. However, directional selection on allometry (particularly the slope) has rarely been tested and observed in natural populations. Here, we investigate selection on the scaling relationship between weapon size and body size (i.e., weapon allometry) in a wild population of giant mesquite bugs, Pachylis neocalifornicus (previously Thasus neocalifornicus). Males in this species use their weapons (enlarged femurs) to compete with one another over access to resources and females. We found that large males with relatively large weapons successfully secured access to mates. However, we also found that small males with relatively small weapons could access mates as well. These two patterns together can increase the allometric slope of the sexually selected weapon, suggesting a straightforward process by which the allometric slope can evolve.

A stabilizing eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the wild

There is increasing evidence that evolutionary and ecological processes can operate on the same timescale1,2 (i.e., contemporary time). As such, evolution can be sufficiently rapid to affect ecological processes such as predation or competition. Thus, evolution can influence population, community, and ecosystem-level dynamics. Indeed, studies have now shown that evolutionary dynamics can alter community structure3,4,5,6 and ecosystem function.7,8,9,10 In turn, shifts in ecological dynamics driven by evolution might feed back to affect the evolutionary trajectory of individual species.11 This feedback loop, where evolutionary and ecological changes reciprocally affect one another, is a central tenet of eco-evolutionary dynamics.1,12 However, most work on such dynamics in natural populations has focused on one-way causal associations between ecology and evolution.13 Hence, direct empirical evidence for eco-evolutionary feedback is rare and limited to laboratory or mesocosm experiments.13,14,15,16 Here, we show in the wild that eco-evolutionary dynamics in a plant-feeding arthropod community involve a negative feedback loop. Specifically, adaptation in cryptic coloration in a stick-insect species mediates bird predation, with local maladaptation increasing predation. In turn, the abundance of arthropods is reduced by predation. Here, we experimentally manipulate arthropod abundance to show that these changes at the community level feed back to affect the stick-insect evolution. Specifically, low-arthropod abundance increases the strength of selection on crypsis, increasing local adaptation of stick insects in a negative feedback loop. Our results suggest that eco-evolutionary feedbacks are able to stabilize complex systems by preventing consistent directional change and therefore increasing resilience.

Seasonal specialization drives divergent population dynamics in two closely related butterflies

Seasons impose different selection pressures on organisms through contrasting environmental conditions. How such seasonal evolutionary conflict is resolved in organisms whose lives span across seasons remains underexplored. Through field experiments, laboratory work, and citizen science data analyses, we investigate this question using two closely related butterflies (Pieris rapae and P. napi). Superficially, the two butterflies appear highly ecologically similar. Yet, the citizen science data reveal that their fitness is partitioned differently across seasons. Pieris rapae have higher population growth during the summer season but lower overwintering success than do P. napi. We show that these differences correspond to the physiology and behavior of the butterflies. Pieris rapae outperform P. napi at high temperatures in several growth season traits, reflected in microclimate choice by ovipositing wild females. Instead, P. rapae have higher winter mortality than do P. napi. We conclude that the difference in population dynamics between the two butterflies is driven by seasonal specialization, manifested as strategies that maximize gains during growth seasons and minimize harm during adverse seasons, respectively.

Herbivory selects for tolerance and constitutive defence across stages of community succession

Plants defend themselves from herbivory by either reducing damage (resistance) or minimizing its negative fitness effects with compensatory growth (tolerance). Herbivore pressure can fluctuate from year to year in an early secondary successional community, which can create temporal variation in selection for defence traits. We manipulated insect herbivory and successional age of the community as agents of natural selection in replicated common gardens with the perennial herb Solidago altissima. In these genotypic selection experiments, herbivory consistently selected for better defended plants in both successional communities. Herbivore suppression increased plant survival and the probability of flowering only in mid-succession. Despite these substantial differences in the effects of herbivory between early and mid-succession, the selection on defence traits did not change. Succession affected selection only on aboveground biomass, with positive selection in early but not mid-succession, suggesting an important role of competition in the selective environment. These results demonstrate that changes in the community that affect key life-history traits in an individual species can occur over very short timescales in a dynamic secondary successional environment. The resulting community context-driven variation in natural selection may be an important, yet overlooked, contributor to adaptive mosaics across populations.

Spatially and temporally varying selection influence species boundaries in two sympatric Mimulus

Spatially and temporally varying selection can maintain genetic variation within and between populations, but it is less well known how these forces influence divergence between closely related species. We identify the interaction of temporal and spatial variation in selection and their role in either reinforcing or eroding divergence between two closely related Mimulus species. Using repeated reciprocal transplant experiments with advanced generation hybrids, we compare the strength of selection on quantitative traits involved in adaptation and reproductive isolation in Mimulus guttatus and Mimulus laciniatus between two years with dramatically different water availability. We found strong divergent habitat-mediated selection on traits in the direction of species differences during a drought in 2013, suggesting that spatially varying selection maintains species divergence. However, a relaxation in divergent selection on most traits in an unusually wet year (2019), including flowering time, which is involved in pre-zygotic isolation, suggests that temporal variation in selection may weaken species differences. Therefore, we find evidence that temporally and spatially varying selection may have opposing roles in mediating species boundaries. Given our changing climate, future growing seasons are expected to be more similar to the dry year, suggesting that in this system climate change may actually increase species divergence.

The evolution of personality disorders: A review of proposals

Personality disorders (PDs) are currently considered dysfunctions. However, personality differences are older than humanity and are ubiquitous in nature, from insects to higher primates. This suggests that a number of evolutionary mechanisms-other than dysfunctions-may be able to maintain stable behavioral variation in the gene pool. First of all, apparently maladaptive traits may actually improve fitness by enabling better survival or successful mating or reproduction, as exemplified by neuroticism, psychopathy, and narcissism. Furthermore, some PDs may harm important biological goals while facilitating others, or may be globally beneficial or detrimental depending on environmental circumstances or body condition. Alternatively, certain traits may form part of life history strategies: Coordinated suites of morphological, physiological and behavioral characters that optimize fitness through alternative routes and respond to selection as a whole. Still others may be vestigial adaptations that are no longer beneficial in present times. Finally, variation may be adaptative in and by itself, as it reduces competition for finite resources. These and other evolutionary mechanisms are reviewed and illustrated through human and non-human examples. Evolutionary theory is the best-substantiated explanatory framework across the life sciences, and may shed light on the question of why harmful personalities exist at all.

Transplant experiments demonstrate that larger brains are favoured in high-competition environments in Trinidadian killifish

The extent to which the evolution of a larger brain is adaptive remains controversial. Trinidadian killifish (Anablepsoides hartii) are found in sites that differ in predation intensity; fish that experience decreased predation and increased intraspecific competition exhibit larger brains. We evaluated the connection between brain size and fitness (survival and growth) when killifish are found in their native habitats and when fish are transplanted from sites with predators to high-competition sites that lack predators. Selection for a larger brain was absent within locally adapted populations. Conversely, there was a strong positive relationship between brain size and growth in transplanted but not resident fish in high-competition environments. We also observed significantly larger brain sizes in the transplanted fish that were recaptured at the end of the experiment versus those that were not. Our results provide experimental support that larger brains increase fitness and are favoured in high-competition environments.

Selective effects of a short transient environmental fluctuation on a natural population

Natural populations experience continuous and often transient changes of environmental conditions. These in turn may result in fluctuating selection pressures leading to variable demographic and evolutionary population responses. Rapid adaptation as short-term response to a sudden environmental change has in several cases been attributed to polygenic traits, but the underlying genomic dynamics and architecture are poorly understood. In this study, we took advantage of a natural experiment in an insect population of the non-biting midge Chironomus riparius by monitoring genome-wide allele frequencies before and after a cold snap event. Whole genome pooled sequencing of time series samples revealed 10 selected haplotypes carrying ancient polymorphisms, partially with signatures of balancing selection. By constantly cold exposing genetically variable individuals in the laboratory, we could demonstrate with whole genome resequencing (i) that among the survivors, the same alleles rose in frequency as in the wild, and (ii) that the identified variants additively predicted fitness (survival time) of its bearers. Finally, by simultaneously sequencing the genome and the transcriptome of cold exposed individuals we could tentatively link some of the selected SNPs to the cis- and trans-regulation of genes and pathways known to be involved in cold response of insects, such as cytochrome P450 and fatty acid metabolism. Altogether, our results shed light on the strength and speed of selection in natural populations and the genomic architecture of its underlying polygenic trait. Population genomic time series data thus appear as promising tool for measuring the selective tracking of fluctuating selection in natural populations.

Population Genomic Time Series Data of a Natural Population Suggests Adaptive Tracking of Fluctuating Environmental Changes

Natural populations are constantly exposed to fluctuating environmental changes that negatively affect their fitness in unpredictable ways. While theoretical models show the possibility of counteracting these environmental changes through rapid evolutionary adaptations, there have been few empirical studies demonstrating such adaptive tracking in natural populations. Here, we analyzed environmental data, fitness-related phenotyping and genomic time-series data sampled over 3 years from a natural Chironomus riparius (Diptera, Insecta) population to address this question. We show that the population's environment varied significantly on the time scale of the sampling in many selectively relevant dimensions, independently of each other. Similarly, phenotypic fitness components evolved significantly on the same temporal scale (mean 0.32 Haldanes), likewise independent from each other. The allele frequencies of 367,446 SNPs across the genome showed evidence of positive selection. Using temporal correlation of spatially coherent allele frequency changes revealed 35,574 haplotypes with more than one selected SNP. The mean selection coefficient for these haplotypes was 0.30 (s.d. = 0.68). The frequency changes of these haplotypes clustered in 46 different temporal patterns, indicating concerted, independent evolution of many polygenic traits. Nine of these patterns were strongly correlated with measured environmental variables. Enrichment analysis of affected genes suggested the implication of a wide variety of biological processes. Thus, our results suggest overall that the natural population of C. riparius tracks environmental change through rapid polygenic adaptation in many independent dimensions. This is further evidence that natural selection is pervasive at the genomic level and that evolutionary and ecological time scales may not differ at all, at least in some organisms.

Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Linking leaf economic and hydraulic traits with early-age growth performance and survival of Eucalyptus pauciflora

Selection on plant functional traits may occur through their direct effects on fitness (or a fitness component), or may be mediated by attributes of plant performance which have a direct impact on fitness. Understanding this link is particularly challenging for long-lived organisms, such as forest trees, where lifetime fitness assessments are rarely achievable, and performance features and fitness components are usually quantified from early-life history stages. Accordingly, we studied a cohort of trees from multiple populations of Eucalyptus pauciflora grown in a common-garden field trial established at the hot and dry end of the species distribution on the island of Tasmania, Australia. We related the within-population variation in leaf economic (leaf thickness, leaf area and leaf density) and hydraulic (stomatal density, stomatal length and vein density) traits, measured from two-year-old plants, to two-year growth performance (height and stem diameter) and to a fitness component (seven-year survival). When performance-trait relationships were modelled for all traits simultaneously, statistical support for direct effects on growth performance was only observed for leaf thickness and leaf density. Performance-based estimators of directional selection indicated that individuals with reduced leaf thickness and increased leaf density were favoured. Survival-performance relationships were consistent with size-dependent mortality, with fitness-based selection gradients estimated for performance measures providing evidence for directional selection favouring individuals with faster growth. There was no statistical support for an effect associated with the fitness-based quadratic selection gradient estimated for growth performance. Conditional on a performance measure, fitness-based directional selection gradients estimated for the leaf traits did not provide statistical support for direct effects of the focal traits on tree survival. This suggested that, under the environmental conditions of the trial site and time period covered in the current study, early-stage selection on the studied leaf traits may be mediated by their effects on growth performance, which in turn has a positive direct influence on later-age survival. We discuss the potential mechanistic basis of the direct effects of the focal leaf traits on tree growth, and the relevance of a putative causal pathway of trait effects on fitness through mediation by growth performance in the studied hot and dry environment.

Mechanisms of flower coloring and eco-evolutionary implications of massive blooming events in the Atacama Desert

The Atacama Desert, one of the driest places on earth, holds a rich biodiversity that becomes most appreciable in years when unusual rainfall accumulation triggers a phenomenon of explosive development of ephemeral herbaceous and woody desert species known as “desierto florido” or “blooming desert.” Despite the scientific importance of this unique phenomenon only few studies have addressed the mechanisms of flower phenotypic divergence under the fluctuating environment provided by this recurrent event. We investigated the mechanisms of floral color diversity in Cistanthe longiscapa (Montiaceae), a dominant species across the ephemeral blooming landscape of Atacama Desert. Our analyses show that the variation in colors of C. longiscapa flowers result from petals containing betalain pigments with different absorption spectra. The different pigment composition of petals causes flower color differences in the visible and ultraviolet (UV) range of the spectrum. Through color vision models we show that C. longiscapa flowers are highly polymorphic in their color appearance for insect pollinators. Our results highlight the variable nature in flower color of C. longiscapa varieties blooming simultaneously in a geographical restricted area. Given the importance of color in attracting floral visitors, the observed color variability could contribute to increased cross pollination in extreme desert conditions, while accounting for complex and fluctuating histories of plant-pollinator interactions.

Climate fluctuations influence variation in group size in a cooperative bird

Variation in group size is ubiquitous in social animals, but explaining the range of group sizes seen in nature remains challenging.^1-3 Group-living species occur most frequently in climatically unpredictable environments, such that the costs and benefits of sociality may change from year to year.^4-6 It is, therefore, possible that variation in climate may help to maintain a range of group sizes, but this hypothesis is rarely tested empirically.^7,8 Here, we examine selection on breeding group size in the greater ani (Crotophaga major), a tropical bird that nests in cooperative groups containing multiple co-breeders and non-breeding helpers.⁹ We found that larger groups experience lower nest predation (due to cooperative nest defense) but suffer higher nestling starvation (due to intra-clutch competition). Long-term data revealed that the relative magnitude of these costs and benefits depends on climate, with frequent changes across years in the strength and direction of selection on group size. In wet years, individual reproductive success was higher in large groups than in small groups, whereas the opposite was true in dry years. This was partly a consequence of competition among nestlings in large clutches, which suffered significantly higher mortality in dry years than in wet years. Averaged over the 13-year study period, annual reproductive success was approximately equal for females in small and large groups. These results suggest that temporal changes in the direction of selection may help explain the persistence of a range of group sizes and that a full understanding of the selective pressures shaping sociality requires long-term fitness data.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history

Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.

The advantage of sex: Reinserting fluctuating selection in the pluralist approach

The advantage of sex, and its fixation in some clades and species all over the eukaryote tree of life, is considered an evolutionary enigma, especially regarding its assumed two-fold cost. Several likely hypotheses have been proposed such as (1) a better response to the negative frequency-dependent selection imposed by the “Red Queen” hypothesis; (2) the competition between siblings induced by the Tangled Bank hypothesis; (3) the existence of genetic and of (4) ecological factors that can diminish the cost of sex to less than the standard assumed two-fold; and (5) a better maintenance of genetic diversity and its resulting phenotypic variation, providing a selective advantage in randomly fluctuating environments. While these hypotheses have mostly been studied separately, they can also act simultaneously. This was advocated by several studies which presented a pluralist point of view. Only three among the five causes cited above were considered yet in such a framework: the Red Queen hypothesis, the Tangled Bank and the genetic factors lowering the cost of sex. We thus simulated the evolution of a finite mutating population undergoing negative frequency-dependent selection on phenotypes and a two-fold (or less) cost of sexuality, experiencing randomly fluctuating selection along generations. The individuals inherited their reproductive modes, either clonal or sexual. We found that exclusive sexuality begins to fix in populations exposed to environmental variation that exceeds the width of one ecological niche (twice the standard deviation of a Gaussian response to environment). This threshold was lowered by increasing negative frequency-dependent selection and when reducing the two-fold cost of sex. It contributes advocating that the different processes involved in a short-term advantage of sex and recombination can act in combination to favor the fixation of sexual reproduction in populations.

Effects of primary seed dormancy on lifetime fitness of Arabidopsis thaliana in the field

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Seed dormancy determines the environmental niche of plants in seasonal environments, and has consequences for plant performance that potentially go far beyond the seed and seedling stages. In this study, we examined the cascading effects of seed dormancy on the expression of subsequent life-history traits and fitness in the annual herb Arabidopsis thaliana.

METHODS

We planted seeds of >200 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from a cross between two locally adapted populations (Italy and Sweden), and both parental genotypes at the native site of the Swedish population in three consecutive years. We quantified the relationship between primary seed dormancy and the expression of subsequent life-history traits and fitness in the RIL population with path analysis. To examine the effects of differences in dormancy on the relative fitness of the two parental genotypes, we planted dormant seeds during the seed dispersal period and non-dormant seeds during the germination period of the local population.

KEY RESULTS

In the RIL population, strong primary dormancy was associated with high seedling survival, but with low adult survival and fecundity, and path analysis indicated that this could be explained by effects on germination timing, rosette size and flowering start. The relationship between primary seed dormancy and germination proportion varied among years, and this was associated with differences in seasonal changes in soil moisture. The planting of dormant and non-dormant seeds indicated that the lower primary dormancy of the local Swedish genotype contributed to its higher germination proportion in two years and to its higher fecundity in one year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that seed dormancy affects trait expression and fitness components across the life cycle, and suggest that among-year variation in the incidence of drought during the germination period should be considered when predicting the consequences of climatic change for population growth and evolution.

Age-dependent genetic architecture across ontogeny of body size in sticklebacks

Heritable variation in traits under natural selection is a prerequisite for evolutionary response. While it is recognized that trait heritability may vary spatially and temporally depending on which environmental conditions traits are expressed under, less is known about the possibility that genetic variance contributing to the expected selection response in a given trait may vary at different stages of ontogeny. Specifically, whether different loci underlie the expression of a trait throughout development and thus providing an additional source of variation for selection to act on in the wild, is unclear. Here we show that body size, an important life-history trait, is heritable throughout ontogeny in the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius). Nevertheless, both analyses of quantitative trait loci and genetic correlations across ages show that different chromosomes/loci contribute to this heritability in different ontogenic time-points. This suggests that body size can respond to selection at different stages of ontogeny but that this response is determined by different loci at different points of development. Hence, our study provides important results regarding our understanding of the genetics of ontogeny and opens an interesting avenue of research for studying age-specific genetic architecture as a source of non-parallel evolution.

Increasing temporal variance leads to stable species range limits

What prevents populations of a species from adapting to the novel environments outside the species' geographic distribution? Previous models highlighted how gene flow across spatial environmental gradients determines species expansion versus extinction and the location of species range limits. However, space is only one of two axes of environmental variation-environments also vary in time, and we know temporal environmental variation has important consequences for population demography and evolution. We used analytical and individual-based evolutionary models to explore how temporal variation in environmental conditions influences the spread of populations across a spatial environmental gradient. We find that temporal variation greatly alters our predictions for range dynamics compared to temporally static environments. When temporal variance is equal across the landscape, the fate of species (expansion versus extinction) is determined by the interaction between the degree of temporal autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations and the steepness of the spatial environmental gradient. When the magnitude of temporal variance changes across the landscape, stable range limits form where this variance increases maladaptation sufficiently to prevent local persistence. These results illustrate the pivotal influence of temporal variation on the likelihood of populations colonizing novel habitats and the location of species range limits.

Contemporary selection on MHC genes in a free-living ruminant population

Genes within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are the most variable identified in vertebrates. Pathogen-mediated selection is believed to be the main force maintaining MHC diversity. However, relatively few studies have demonstrated contemporary selection on MHC genes. Here, we examine associations between MHC variation and several fitness measurements including total fitness and five fitness components, in 3400 wild Soay sheep (Ovis aries) monitored between 1989 and 2012. In terms of total fitness, measured as lifetime breeding success of all individuals born, we found haplotypes named C and D were associated with decreased and increased male total fitness respectively. In terms of fitness components, juvenile survival was associated with haplotype divergence while individual haplotypes (C, D and F) were associated with adult fitness components. Consistent with the increased male total fitness, the rarest haplotype D has increased in frequency throughout the study period more than expected under neutral expectations. Our results demonstrate contemporary natural selection is acting on MHC class II genes in Soay sheep and the mode of selection on specific fitness components can be different mode from selection on total fitness.

Evidence for morph-specific substrate choice in a green-brown polymorphic grasshopper

Orthopteran insects are characterized by high variability in body coloration, in particular featuring a widespread green-brown color polymorphism. The mechanisms that contribute to the maintenance of this apparently balanced polymorphism are not yet understood. To investigate whether morph-dependent microhabitat choice might contribute to the continued coexistence of multiple morphs, we studied substrate choice in the meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus. The meadow grasshopper occurs in multiple discrete, genetically determined color morphs that range from uniform brown to uniform green. We tested whether three common morphs preferentially choose differently colored backgrounds in an experimental arena. We found that a preference for green backgrounds was most pronounced in uniform green morphs. If differential choices improve morph-specific performance in natural habitats via crypsis and/or thermoregulatory benefits, they could help to equalize fitness differences among color morphs and potentially produce frequency-dependent microhabitat competition, though difference appear too small to serve as the only explanation. We also measured the reflectance of the grasshoppers and backgrounds and used visual modeling to quantify the detectability of the different morphs to a range of potential predators. Multiple potential predators, including birds and spiders, are predicted to distinguish between morphs chromatically, while other species, possibly including grasshoppers themselves, will perceive only differences in brightness. Our study provides the first evidence that morph-specific microhabitat choice might be relevant to the maintenance of the green-brown polymorphisms in grasshoppers and shows that visual distinctness of color morphs varies between perceivers.

Frequency dependence and the predictability of evolution in a changing environment

Frequency‐dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency‐dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and –2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi‐cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < –2, can produce self‐sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment‐dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.

Detecting patterns of correlational selection with sampling error: A simulation study

The adoption of a multivariate perspective of selection implies the existence of multivariate adaptive peaks and pervasive correlational selection that promotes co-adaptation between traits. However, to test for the ubiquity of correlational selection in nature, we must first have a sense of how well can we estimate multivariate nonlinear selection (i.e., the γ-matrix) in the face of sampling error. To explore the sampling properties of estimated γ-matrices, we simulated inidividual traits and fitness under a wide range of sample sizes, using different strengths of correlational selection and of stabilizing selection, combined with different number of traits under selection, different amounts of residual variance in fitness, and distinct patterns of selection. We then ran nonlinear regressions with these simulated datasets to simulate γ-matrices after adding random error to individual fitness. To test how well could we detect the imposed pattern of correlational selection at different sample sizes, we measured the similarity between simulated and imposed γ-matrices. We show that detection of the pattern of correlational selection is highly dependent on the total strength of selection on traits and on the amount of residual variance in fitness. Minimum sample size needs to be at least 500 to precisely estimate the pattern of correlational selection. Furthermore, a pattern of selection in which different sets of traits contribute to different functions is the easiest to diagnose, even when using a large number of traits (10 traits), but with sample sizes in the order of 1000 individuals. Consequently, we recommend working with sets of traits from distinct functional complexes and fitness proxies less prone to effects of environmental and demographic stochasticity to test for correlational selection with lower sample sizes.

Directional Selection on Tree Seedling Traits Driven by Experimental Drought Differs Between Mesic and Dry Populations

We evaluated population differences and drought-induced phenotypic selection on four seedling traits of the Australian forest tree Eucalyptus pauciflora using a glasshouse dry-down experiment. We compared dry and mesic populations and tested for directional selection on lamina length (reflecting leaf size), leaf shape, the node of ontogenetic transition to the petiolate leaf (reflecting the loss of vegetative juvenility), and lignotuber size (reflecting a recovery trait). On average, the dry population had smaller and broader leaves, greater retention of the juvenile leaf state and larger lignotubers than the mesic population, but the populations did not differ in seedling survival. While there was statistical support for directional selection acting on the focal traits in one or other population, and for differences between populations in selection gradient estimates for two traits, only one trait—lamina length—exhibited a pattern of directional selection consistent with the observed population differences being a result of past adaptation to reduce seedling susceptibility to acute drought. The observed directional selection for lamina length in the mesic population suggests that future increases in drought risk in the wild will shift the mean of the mesic population toward that of the dry population. Further, we provide evidence suggesting an early age trade-off between drought damage and recovery traits, with phenotypes which develop larger lignotubers early being more susceptible to drought death. Such trade-offs could have contributed to the absence of population mean differences in survival, despite marked differentiation in seedling traits.

Social Selection and the Evolution of Maladaptation

Evolution by natural selection is often viewed as a process that inevitably leads to adaptation or an increase in population fitness over time. However, maladaptation, an evolved decrease in fitness, may also occur in response to natural selection under some conditions. Social selection, which arises from the effects of social partners on fitness, has been identified as a potential cause of maladaptation, but we lack a general rule identifying when social selection should lead to a decrease in population mean fitness. Here we use a quantitative genetic model to develop such a rule. We show that maladaptation is most likely to occur when social selection is strong relative to nonsocial selection and acts in an opposing direction. In this scenario, the evolution of traits that impose fitness costs on others may outweigh evolved gains in fitness for the individual, leading to a net decrease in population mean fitness. Furthermore, we find that maladaptation may also sometimes occur when phenotypes of interacting individuals negatively covary. We outline the biological situations where maladaptation in response to social selection can be expected, provide both quantitative genetic and phenotypic versions of our derived result, and suggest what empirical work would be needed to test it. We also consider the effect of social selection on inclusive fitness and support previous work showing that inclusive fitness cannot suffer an evolutionary decrease. Taken together, our results show that social selection may decrease population mean fitness when it opposes individual-level selection, even as inclusive fitness increases.