Bayesian analysis of single-molecule experimental data (with discussion)

The flaw of averages: Bayes factors as posterior means of the likelihood ratio

As an alternative to the Frequentist p-value, the Bayes factor (or ratio of marginal likelihoods) has been regarded as one of the primary tools for Bayesian hypothesis testing. In recent years, several researchers have begun to re-analyze results from prominent medical journals, as well as from trials for FDA-approved drugs, to show that Bayes factors often give divergent conclusions from those of p-values. In this paper, we investigate the claim that Bayes factors are straightforward to interpret as directly quantifying the relative strength of evidence. In particular, we show that for nested hypotheses with consistent priors, the Bayes factor for the null over the alternative hypothesis is the posterior mean of the likelihood ratio. By re-analyzing 39 results previously published in the New England Journal of Medicine, we demonstrate how the posterior distribution of the likelihood ratio can be computed and visualized, providing useful information beyond the posterior mean alone.

Epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian predictive probabilities

Bayesian predictive probabilities have become a ubiquitous tool for design and monitoring of clinical trials. The typical procedure is to average predictive probabilities over the prior or posterior distributions. In this paper, we highlight the limitations of relying solely on averaging, and propose the reporting of intervals or quantiles for the predictive probabilities. These intervals formalize the intuition that uncertainty decreases with more information. We present four different applications (Phase 1 dose escalation, early stopping for futility, sample size re-estimation, and assurance/probability of success) to demonstrate the practicality and generality of the proposed approach.

Effects of mRNA conformational switching on translational noise in gene circuits

Intragenic translational heterogeneity describes the variation in translation at the level of transcripts for an individual gene. A factor that contributes to this source of variation is the mRNA structure. Both the composition of the thermodynamic ensemble, i.e., the stationary distribution of mRNA structures, and the switching dynamics between those play a role. The effect of the switching dynamics on intragenic translational heterogeneity remains poorly understood. We present a stochastic translation model that accounts for mRNA structure switching and is derived from a Markov model via approximate stochastic filtering. We assess the approximation on various timescales and provide a method to quantify how mRNA structure dynamics contributes to translational heterogeneity. With our approach, we allow quantitative information on mRNA switching from biophysical experiments or coarse-grain molecular dynamics simulations of mRNA structures to be included in gene regulatory chemical reaction network models without an increase in the number of species. Thereby, our model bridges a gap between mRNA structure kinetics and gene expression models, which we hope will further improve our understanding of gene regulatory networks and facilitate genetic circuit design.

Single-molecule FRET and molecular diffusion analysis characterize stable oligomers of amyloid-β 42 of extremely low population

Soluble oligomers produced during protein aggregation have been thought to be toxic species causing various diseases. Characterization of these oligomers is difficult because oligomers are a heterogeneous mixture, which is not readily separable, and may appear transiently during aggregation. Single-molecule spectroscopy can provide valuable information by detecting individual oligomers, but there have been various problems in determining the size and concentration of oligomers. In this work, we develop and use a method that analyzes single-molecule fluorescence burst data of freely diffusing molecules in solution based on molecular diffusion theory and maximum likelihood method. We demonstrate that the photon count rate, diffusion time, population, and Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) efficiency can be accurately determined from simulated data and the experimental data of a known oligomerization system, the tetramerization domain of p53. We used this method to characterize the oligomers of the 42-residue amyloid-β (Aβ42) peptide. Combining peptide incubation in a plate reader and single-molecule free-diffusion experiments allows for the detection of stable oligomers appearing at various stages of aggregation. We find that the average size of these oligomers is 70-mer and their overall population is very low, less than 1 nM, in the early and middle stages of aggregation of 1 µM Aβ42 peptide. Based on their average size and long diffusion time, we predict the oligomers have a highly elongated rod-like shape.

Analysis of photon trajectories from diffusing single molecules

In single-molecule free diffusion experiments, molecules spend most of the time outside a laser spot and generate bursts of photons when they diffuse through the focal spot. Only these bursts contain meaningful information and, therefore, are selected using physically reasonable criteria. The analysis of the bursts must take into account the precise way they were chosen. We present new methods that allow one to accurately determine the brightness and diffusivity of individual molecule species from the photon arrival times of selected bursts. We derive analytical expressions for the distribution of inter-photon times (with and without burst selection), the distribution of the number of photons in a burst, and the distribution of photons in a burst with recorded arrival times. The theory accurately treats the bias introduced due to the burst selection criteria. We use a Maximum Likelihood (ML) method to find the molecule's photon count rate and diffusion coefficient from three kinds of data, i.e., the bursts of photons with recorded arrival times (burstML), inter-photon times in bursts (iptML), and the numbers of photon counts in a burst (pcML). The performance of these new methods is tested on simulated photon trajectories and on an experimental system, the fluorophore Atto 488.

Theory and Analysis of Single-Molecule FRET Experiments

Inter-dye distances and conformational dynamics can be studied using single-molecule FRET measurements. We consider two approaches to analyze sequences of photons with recorded photon colors and arrival times. The first approach is based on FRET efficiency histograms obtained from binned photon sequences. The experimental histograms are compared with the theoretical histograms obtained using the joint distribution of acceptor and donor photons or the Gaussian approximation. In the second approach, a photon sequence is analyzed without binning. The parameters of a model describing conformational dynamics are found by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. The first approach is simpler, while the second one is more accurate, especially when the population of species is small and transition rates are fast. The likelihood-based analysis as well as the recoloring method has the advantage that diffusion of molecules through the laser focus can be rigorously handled.

Bayesian Inference: The Comprehensive Approach to Analyzing Single-Molecule Experiments

Biophysics experiments performed at single-molecule resolution provide exceptional insight into the structural details and dynamic behavior of biological systems. However, extracting this information from the corresponding experimental data unequivocally requires applying a biophysical model. In this review, we discuss how to use probability theory to apply these models to single-molecule data. Many current single-molecule data analysis methods apply parts of probability theory, sometimes unknowingly, and thus miss out on the full set of benefits provided by this self-consistent framework. The full application of probability theory involves a process called Bayesian inference that fully accounts for the uncertainties inherent to single-molecule experiments. Additionally, using Bayesian inference provides a scientifically rigorous method of incorporating information from multiple experiments into a single analysis and finding the best biophysical model for an experiment without the risk of overfitting the data. These benefits make the Bayesian approach ideal for analyzing any type of single-molecule experiment.

Extraction of Protein Conformational Modes from Distance Distributions Using Structurally Imputed Bayesian Data Augmentation

Protein conformational changes are known to play important roles in assorted biochemical and biological processes. Driven by thermal motions of surrounding solvent molecules, such a structural remodeling often occurs stochastically. Yet, regardless of how random the conformational reconfiguration may appear, it could in principle be described by a linear combination of a set of orthogonal modes which, in turn, are contained in the intramolecular distance distributions. The central challenge is how to obtain the distribution. This contribution proposes a Bayesian data-augmentation scheme to extract the predominant modes from only few distance distributions, be they from computational sampling or directly from experiments such as single-molecule Förster-type resonance energy transfer (smFRET). The inference of the complete protein structure from insufficient data was recognized as isomorphic to the missing-data problem in Bayesian statistical learning. Using smFRET data as an example, the missing coordinates were deduced, given protein structural constraints and multiple but limited number of smFRET distances; the Boltzmann weighing of each inferred protein structure was then evaluated using computational modeling to numerically construct the posterior density for the global protein conformation. The conformational modes were then determined from the iteratively converged overall conformational distribution using principal component analysis. Two examples were presented to illustrate these basic ideas as well as their practical implementation. The scheme described herein was based on the theory behind the powerful Tanner-Wang algorithm that guarantees convergence to the true posterior density. However, instead of assuming a mathematical model to calculate the likelihood as in conventional statistical inference, here the protein structure was treated as a statistical parameter and was imputed from the numerical likelihood function based on structural information, a probability model-free method. The framework put forth here is anticipated to be generally applicable, offering a new way to articulate protein conformational changes in a quantifiable manner.

FRETBursts: An Open Source Toolkit for Analysis of Freely-Diffusing Single-Molecule FRET

Single-molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (smFRET) allows probing intermolecular interactions and conformational changes in biomacromolecules, and represents an invaluable tool for studying cellular processes at the molecular scale. smFRET experiments can detect the distance between two fluorescent labels (donor and acceptor) in the 3-10 nm range. In the commonly employed confocal geometry, molecules are free to diffuse in solution. When a molecule traverses the excitation volume, it emits a burst of photons, which can be detected by single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detectors. The intensities of donor and acceptor fluorescence can then be related to the distance between the two fluorophores. While recent years have seen a growing number of contributions proposing improvements or new techniques in smFRET data analysis, rarely have those publications been accompanied by software implementation. In particular, despite the widespread application of smFRET, no complete software package for smFRET burst analysis is freely available to date. In this paper, we introduce FRETBursts, an open source software for analysis of freely-diffusing smFRET data. FRETBursts allows executing all the fundamental steps of smFRET bursts analysis using state-of-the-art as well as novel techniques, while providing an open, robust and well-documented implementation. Therefore, FRETBursts represents an ideal platform for comparison and development of new methods in burst analysis. We employ modern software engineering principles in order to minimize bugs and facilitate long-term maintainability. Furthermore, we place a strong focus on reproducibility by relying on Jupyter notebooks for FRETBursts execution. Notebooks are executable documents capturing all the steps of the analysis (including data files, input parameters, and results) and can be easily shared to replicate complete smFRET analyzes. Notebooks allow beginners to execute complex workflows and advanced users to customize the analysis for their own needs. By bundling analysis description, code and results in a single document, FRETBursts allows to seamless share analysis workflows and results, encourages reproducibility and facilitates collaboration among researchers in the single-molecule community.

Analysis of Fluorescence Lifetime and Energy Transfer Efficiency in Single-Molecule Photon Trajectories of Fast-Folding Proteins

In single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) spectroscopy, the dynamics of molecular processes are usually determined by analyzing the fluorescence intensity of donor and acceptor dyes. Since FRET efficiency is related to fluorescence lifetimes, additional information can be extracted by analyzing fluorescence intensity and lifetime together. For fast processes where individual states are not well separated in a trajectory, it is not easy to obtain the lifetime information. Here, we present analysis methods to utilize fluorescence lifetime information from single-molecule FRET experiments, and apply these methods to three fast-folding, two-state proteins. By constructing 2D FRET efficiency-lifetime histograms, the correlation can be visualized between the FRET efficiency and fluorescence lifetimes in the presence of the submicrosecond to millisecond dynamics. We extend the previously developed method for analyzing delay times of donor photons to include acceptor delay times. To determine the kinetics and lifetime parameters accurately, we used a maximum likelihood method. We found that acceptor blinking can lead to inaccurate parameters in the donor delay time analysis. This problem can be solved by incorporating acceptor blinking into a model. While the analysis of acceptor delay times is not affected by acceptor blinking, it is more sensitive to the shape of the delay time distribution resulting from a broad conformational distribution in the unfolded state.

Inferring the Forces Controlling Metaphase Kinetochore Oscillations by Reverse Engineering System Dynamics

Kinetochores are multi-protein complexes that mediate the physical coupling of sister chromatids to spindle microtubule bundles (called kinetochore (K)-fibres) from respective poles. These kinetochore-attached K-fibres generate pushing and pulling forces, which combine with polar ejection forces (PEF) and elastic inter-sister chromatin to govern chromosome movements. Classic experiments in meiotic cells using calibrated micro-needles measured an approximate stall force for a chromosome, but methods that allow the systematic determination of forces acting on a kinetochore in living cells are lacking. Here we report the development of mathematical models that can be fitted (reverse engineered) to high-resolution kinetochore tracking data, thereby estimating the model parameters and allowing us to indirectly compute the (relative) force components (K-fibre, spring force and PEF) acting on individual sister kinetochores in vivo. We applied our methodology to thousands of human kinetochore pair trajectories and report distinct signatures in temporal force profiles during directional switches. We found the K-fibre force to be the dominant force throughout oscillations, and the centromeric spring the smallest although it has the strongest directional switching signature. There is also structure throughout the metaphase plate, with a steeper PEF potential well towards the periphery and a concomitant reduction in plate thickness and oscillation amplitude. This data driven reverse engineering approach is sufficiently flexible to allow fitting of more complex mechanistic models; mathematical models of kinetochore dynamics can therefore be thoroughly tested on experimental data for the first time. Future work will now be able to map out how individual proteins contribute to kinetochore-based force generation and sensing.

To achieve proper cell division, newly duplicated chromosomes must be segregated into daughter cells with high fidelity. This occurs in mitosis where during the crucial metaphase stage chromosomes are aligned on an imaginary plate, called the metaphase plate. Chromosomes are attached to a structural scaffold—the mitotic spindle, which is composed of dynamic fibres called microtubules—by protein machines called kinetochores. Observation of kinetochores during metaphase reveals they undergo a series of forward and backward movements. The mechanical system generating this oscillatory motion is not well understood. By tracking kinetochores in live cell 3D confocal microscopy and reverse engineering their trajectories we decompose the forces acting on kinetochores into the three main force generating components. Kinetochore dynamics are dominated by K-fibre forces, although changes in the minor spring force over time suggests an important role in controlling directional switching. In addition, we show that the strength of forces can vary both spatially within cells throughout the plate and between cells.

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when the FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a "chevron" shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated.

A Method for Extracting the Free Energy Surface and Conformational Dynamics of Fast-Folding Proteins from Single Molecule Photon Trajectories

Single molecule fluorescence spectroscopy holds the promise of providing direct measurements of protein folding free energy landscapes and conformational motions. However, fulfilling this promise has been prevented by technical limitations, most notably, the difficulty in analyzing the small packets of photons per millisecond that are typically recorded from individual biomolecules. Such limitation impairs the ability to accurately determine conformational distributions and resolve sub-millisecond processes. Here we develop an analytical procedure for extracting the conformational distribution and dynamics of fast-folding proteins directly from time-stamped photon arrival trajectories produced by single molecule FRET experiments. Our procedure combines the maximum likelihood analysis originally developed by Gopich and Szabo with a statistical mechanical model that describes protein folding as diffusion on a one-dimensional free energy surface. Using stochastic kinetic simulations, we thoroughly tested the performance of the method in identifying diverse fast-folding scenarios, ranging from two-state to one-state downhill folding, as a function of relevant experimental variables such as photon count rate, amount of input data, and background noise. The tests demonstrate that the analysis can accurately retrieve the original one-dimensional free energy surface and microsecond folding dynamics in spite of the sub-megahertz photon count rates and significant background noise levels of current single molecule fluorescence experiments. Therefore, our approach provides a powerful tool for the quantitative analysis of single molecule FRET experiments of fast protein folding that is also potentially extensible to the analysis of any other biomolecular process governed by sub-millisecond conformational dynamics.

Fast single-molecule FRET spectroscopy: theory and experiment

Single-molecule spectroscopy is widely used to study macromolecular dynamics. Although this technique provides unique information that cannot be obtained at the ensemble level, the possibility of studying fast molecular dynamics is limited by the number of photons detected per unit time (photon count rate), which is proportional to the illumination intensity. However, simply increasing the illumination intensity often does not help because of various photophysical and photochemical problems. In this Perspective, we show how to improve the dynamic range of single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy at a given photon count rate by considering each and every photon and using a maximum likelihood method. For a photon trajectory with recorded photon colors and inter-photon times, the parameters of a model describing molecular dynamics are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. We discuss various likelihood functions, their applicability, and the accuracy of the extracted parameters. The maximum likelihood method has been applied to analyze the experiments on fast two-state protein folding and to measure transition path times. Utilizing other information such as fluorescence lifetimes is discussed in the framework of two-dimensional FRET efficiency-lifetime histograms.

Transition model for ricin-aptamer interactions with multiple pathways and energy barriers

We develop a transition model to interpret single-molecule ricin-aptamer interactions with multiple unbinding pathways and energy barriers measured by atomic force microscopy dynamic force spectroscopy. Molecular simulations establish the relationship between binding conformations and the corresponding unbinding pathways. Each unbinding pathway follows a Bell-Evans multiple-barrier model. Markov-type transition matrices are developed to analyze the redistribution of unbinding events among the pathways under different loading rates. Our study provides detailed information about complex behaviors in ricin-aptamer unbinding events.

Statistics and Related Topics in Single-Molecule Biophysics

Since the universal acceptance of atoms and molecules as the fundamental constituents of matter in the early twentieth century, molecular physics, chemistry and molecular biology have all experienced major theoretical breakthroughs. To be able to actually "see" biological macromolecules, one at a time in action, one has to wait until the 1970s. Since then the field of single-molecule biophysics has witnessed extensive growth both in experiments and theory. A distinct feature of single-molecule biophysics is that the motions and interactions of molecules and the transformation of molecular species are necessarily described in the language of stochastic processes, whether one investigates equilibrium or nonequilibrium living behavior. For laboratory measurements following a biological process, if it is sampled over time on individual participating molecules, then the analysis of experimental data naturally calls for the inference of stochastic processes. The theoretical and experimental developments of single-molecule biophysics thus present interesting questions and unique opportunity for applied statisticians and probabilists. In this article, we review some important statistical developments in connection to single-molecule biophysics, emphasizing the application of stochastic-process theory and the statistical questions arising from modeling and analyzing experimental data.

Expectation-maximization of the potential of mean force and diffusion coefficient in Langevin dynamics from single molecule FRET data photon by photon

The dynamics of a protein along a well-defined coordinate can be formally projected onto the form of an overdamped Lagevin equation. Here, we present a comprehensive statistical-learning framework for simultaneously quantifying the deterministic force (the potential of mean force, PMF) and the stochastic force (characterized by the diffusion coefficient, D) from single-molecule Förster-type resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments. The likelihood functional of the Langevin parameters, PMF and D, is expressed by a path integral of the latent smFRET distance that follows Langevin dynamics and realized by the donor and the acceptor photon emissions. The solution is made possible by an eigen decomposition of the time-symmetrized form of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation coupled with photon statistics. To extract the Langevin parameters from photon arrival time data, we advance the expectation-maximization algorithm in statistical learning, originally developed for and mostly used in discrete-state systems, to a general form in the continuous space that allows for a variational calculus on the continuous PMF function. We also introduce the regularization of the solution space in this Bayesian inference based on a maximum trajectory-entropy principle. We use a highly nontrivial example with realistically simulated smFRET data to illustrate the application of this new method.

Reconstruction of Calmodulin Single-Molecule FRET States, Dye-Interactions, and CaMKII Peptide Binding by MultiNest and Classic Maximum Entropy

We analyze single molecule FRET burst measurements using Bayesian nested sampling. The MultiNest algorithm produces accurate FRET efficiency distributions from single-molecule data. FRET efficiency distributions recovered by MultiNest and classic maximum entropy are compared for simulated data and for calmodulin labeled at residues 44 and 117. MultiNest compares favorably with maximum entropy analysis for simulated data, judged by the Bayesian evidence. FRET efficiency distributions recovered for calmodulin labeled with two different FRET dye pairs depended on the dye pair and changed upon Ca2+ binding. We also looked at the FRET efficiency distributions of calmodulin bound to the calcium/calmodulin dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) binding domain. For both dye pairs, the FRET efficiency distribution collapsed to a single peak in the case of calmodulin bound to the CaMKII peptide. These measurements strongly suggest that consideration of dye-protein interactions is crucial in forming an accurate picture of protein conformations from FRET data.

Analyzing conformational dynamics of single P-glycoprotein transporters by Förster resonance energy transfer using hidden Markov models

Single-molecule Förster resonance energy (smFRET) transfer has become a powerful tool for observing conformational dynamics of biological macromolecules. Analyzing smFRET time trajectories allows to identify the state transitions occuring on reaction pathways of molecular machines. Previously, we have developed a smFRET approach to monitor movements of the two nucleotide binding domains (NBDs) of P-glycoprotein (Pgp) during ATP hydrolysis driven drug transport in solution. One limitation of this initial work was that single-molecule photon bursts were analyzed by visual inspection with manual assignment of individual FRET levels. Here a fully automated analysis of Pgp smFRET data using hidden Markov models (HMM) for transitions up to 9 conformational states is applied. We propose new estimators for HMMs to integrate the information of fluctuating intensities in confocal smFRET measurements of freely diffusing lipid bilayer bound membrane proteins in solution. HMM analysis strongly supports that under conditions of steady state turnover, conformational states with short NBD distances and short dwell times are more populated compared to conditions without nucleotide or transport substrate present.

Correlation Analysis of Enzymatic Reaction of a Single Protein Molecule

New advances in nano sciences open the door for scientists to study biological processes on a microscopic molecule-by-molecule basis. Recent single-molecule biophysical experiments on enzyme systems, in particular, reveal that enzyme molecules behave fundamentally differently from what classical model predicts. A stochastic network model was previously proposed to explain the experimental discovery. This paper conducts detailed theoretical and data analyses of the stochastic network model, focusing on the correlation structure of the successive reaction times of a single enzyme molecule. We investigate the correlation of experimental fluorescence intensity and the correlation of enzymatic reaction times, and examine the role of substrate concentration in enzymatic reactions. Our study shows that the stochastic network model is capable of explaining the experimental data in depth.

Network Inference and Biological Dynamics

Network inference approaches are now widely used in biological applications to probe regulatory relationships between molecular components such as genes or proteins. Many methods have been proposed for this setting, but the connections and differences between their statistical formulations have received less attention. In this paper, we show how a broad class of statistical network inference methods, including a number of existing approaches, can be described in terms of variable selection for the linear model. This reveals some subtle but important differences between the methods, including the treatment of time intervals in discretely observed data. In developing a general formulation, we also explore the relationship between single-cell stochastic dynamics and network inference on averages over cells. This clarifies the link between biochemical networks as they operate at the cellular level and network inference as carried out on data that are averages over populations of cells. We present empirical results, comparing thirty-two network inference methods that are instances of the general formulation we describe, using two published dynamical models. Our investigation sheds light on the applicability and limitations of network inference and provides guidance for practitioners and suggestions for experimental design.

Classic maximum entropy recovery of the average joint distribution of apparent FRET efficiency and fluorescence photons for single-molecule burst measurements

We describe a method for analysis of single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) burst measurements using classic maximum entropy. Classic maximum entropy determines the Bayesian inference for the joint probability describing the total fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency. The method was tested with simulated data and then with DNA labeled with fluorescent dyes. The most probable joint distribution can be marginalized to obtain both the overall distribution of fluorescence photons and the apparent FRET efficiency distribution. This method proves to be ideal for determining the distance distribution of FRET-labeled biomolecules, and it successfully predicts the shape of the recovered distributions.

Likelihood functions for the analysis of single-molecule binned photon sequences

We consider the analysis of a class of experiments in which the number of photons in consecutive time intervals is recorded. Sequence of photon counts or, alternatively, of FRET efficiencies can be studied using likelihood-based methods. For a kinetic model of the conformational dynamics and state-dependent Poisson photon statistics, the formalism to calculate the exact likelihood that this model describes such sequences of photons or FRET efficiencies is developed. Explicit analytic expressions for the likelihood function for a two-state kinetic model are provided. The important special case when conformational dynamics are so slow that at most a single transition occurs in a time bin is considered. By making a series of approximations, we eventually recover the likelihood function used in hidden Markov models. In this way, not only is insight gained into the range of validity of this procedure, but also an improved likelihood function can be obtained.

Bayesian framework for modeling diffusion processes with nonlinear drift based on nonlinear and incomplete observations

Diffusion processes are relevant for a variety of phenomena in the natural sciences, including diffusion of cells or biomolecules within cells, diffusion of molecules on a membrane or surface, and diffusion of a molecular conformation within a complex energy landscape. Many experimental tools exist now to track such diffusive motions in single cells or molecules, including high-resolution light microscopy, optical tweezers, fluorescence quenching, and Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET). Experimental observations are most often indirect and incomplete: (1) They do not directly reveal the potential or diffusion constants that govern the diffusion process, (2) they have limited time and space resolution, and (3) the highest-resolution experiments do not track the motion directly but rather probe it stochastically by recording single events, such as photons, whose properties depend on the state of the system under investigation. Here, we propose a general Bayesian framework to model diffusion processes with nonlinear drift based on incomplete observations as generated by various types of experiments. A maximum penalized likelihood estimator is given as well as a Gibbs sampling method that allows to estimate the trajectories that have caused the measurement, the nonlinear drift or potential function and the noise or diffusion matrices, as well as uncertainty estimates of these properties. The approach is illustrated on numerical simulations of FRET experiments where it is shown that trajectories, potentials, and diffusion constants can be efficiently and reliably estimated even in cases with little statistics or nonequilibrium measurement conditions.

Fractional Lévy stable motion can model subdiffusive dynamics

We show in this paper that the sample (time average) mean-squared displacement (MSD) of the fractional Lévy α -stable motion behaves very differently from the corresponding ensemble average (second moment). While the ensemble average MSD diverges for α<2 , the sample MSD may exhibit either subdiffusion, normal diffusion, or superdiffusion. Thus, H -self-similar Lévy stable processes can model either a subdiffusive, diffusive or superdiffusive dynamics in the sense of sample MSD. We show that the character of the process is controlled by a sign of the memory parameter d=H-1/α . We also introduce a sample p -variation dynamics test which allows to distinguish between two models of subdiffusive dynamics. Finally, we illustrate a subdiffusive behavior of the fractional Lévy stable motion on biological data describing the motion of individual fluorescently labeled mRNA molecules inside live E. coli cells, but it may concern many other fields of contemporary experimental physics.

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure.

Decoding the pattern of photon colors in single-molecule FRET

Conformational dynamics of a single molecule can be studied using Forster resonance energy transfer (FRET) by recording a sequence of photons emitted by a donor and an acceptor dye attached to the molecule. We describe a simple and robust method to estimate the rates of transitions between different conformational states and the FRET efficiencies associated with these states. For a photon trajectory with measured interphoton times, the pattern of colors is decoded by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. This approach can be used to analyze bursts of photons from diffusing molecules as well as photon trajectories generated by immobilized molecules. The procedure is illustrated using simulated photon trajectories corresponding to two-state and three-state molecules. The method works even when the photon colors appear to be scrambled because of high background noise, the photophysical properties of the conformers are similar, or the conformational and photon count rates are comparable. The consistency of the model with the data can be checked by recoloring the photon trajectories and comparing the predicted and observed FRET efficiency histograms.

A Bayesian statistics approach to multiscale coarse graining

Coarse-grained (CG) modeling provides a promising way to investigate many important physical and biological phenomena over large spatial and temporal scales. The multiscale coarse-graining (MS-CG) method has been proven to be a thermodynamically consistent way to systematically derive a CG model from atomistic force information, as shown in a variety of systems, ranging from simple liquids to proteins embedded in lipid bilayers. In the present work, Bayes' theorem, an advanced statistical tool widely used in signal processing and pattern recognition, is adopted to further improve the MS-CG force field obtained from the CG modeling. This approach can regularize the linear equation resulting from the underlying force-matching methodology, therefore substantially improving the quality of the MS-CG force field, especially for the regions with limited sampling. Moreover, this Bayesian approach can naturally provide an error estimation for each force field parameter, from which one can know the extent the results can be trusted. The robustness and accuracy of the Bayesian MS-CG algorithm is demonstrated for three different systems, including simple liquid methanol, polyalanine peptide solvated in explicit water, and a much more complicated peptide assembly with 32 NNQQNY hexapeptides.

Single-molecule FRET with diffusion and conformational dynamics

Under relatively mild conditions, we show how one can extract information about conformational dynamics from Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments on diffusing molecules without modeling diffusion. Starting from a rigorous theory that does treat diffusion, we first examine when the single-molecule FRET efficiency distribution can be decomposed into the measured distribution of the total number of photons and the efficiency distribution of an immobilized molecule in the absence of shot noise. If the conformation does not change during the time the molecule spends in the laser spot, this is possible when (I) the efficiency is independent of the location in the laser spot and (II) the total number of photons does not depend on conformation. This decomposition is approximate when the conformation changes during the diffusion time. However, it does provide a simple framework for analyzing data. This is illustrated for a two-state system where the FRET efficiency distribution can be found analytically for all values of the interconversion rates. If the arrival time of each donor and acceptor photon can be monitored, we introduce an alternative procedure that allows one to rigorously extract the rates of conformational changes when the above two conditions hold. In this case, the pattern of colors in the photon trajectory depends solely on conformational dynamics. This can be exploited in the framework of statistical inference because the likelihood function, which must be optimized with respect to the model rate parameters, depends only on how the conformation changes during the interval between photons with specified colors.

Testing for Renewal and Detailed Balance Violations in Single-Molecule Blinking Processes

This paper examines methods to test one- and two-dimensional histograms for several features including the renewal properties, detailed balance violations, and experimental condition dependences. The tests are simple to implement and allow rigorous statistical determination of the existence of these kinetic features. The tests are used to determine the lower bound on the number of measurements necessary to differentiate underlying kinetic models.