The potential of occupancy modelling as a tool for monitoring wild primate populations

Lemur paparazzi: Arboreal camera trapping and occupancy modeling as conservation tools for monitoring threatened lemur species

Primate species face growing risks of extinction throughout the world. To better protect their populations, effective monitoring techniques are needed. The goal of this study was to evaluate the use of arboreal camera traps and occupancy modeling as conservation tools for threatened lemur species. This project aimed to (1) estimate the occupancy and detection probabilities of lemur species, (2) investigate factors potentially affecting lemur habitat use, and (3) determine whether ground or arboreal cameras are better for surveying lemur assemblages. We conducted camera trapping research in five forest fragments (total trap nights = 1770; 900 arboreal trap nights (134 photo events); 870 ground trap nights (2 photo events)) and reforestation areas (total trap nights = 608; 1 photo event) in Kianjavato, Madagascar from May to September 2019. We used arboreal trap data from fragments to estimate occupancy for five species: the red-fronted brown lemur (Eulemur rufifrons; ψ = 0.54 ± SD 0.03), Jolly's mouse lemur (Microcebus jollyae; ψ = 0.14 ± 0.17), the greater dwarf lemur (Cheirogaleus major; ψ = 0.42 ± 0.30), the red-bellied lemur (Eulemur rubriventer; ψ = 0.24 ± 0.03), and the black-and-white ruffed lemur (Varecia variegata; ψ = 0.24 ± 0.08). Tree diameter, elevation, distance to village, and canopy connectivity were important predictors of occupancy, while camera height, canopy connectivity, fragment ID, and fragment size predicted detection. Arboreal cameras recorded significantly higher species richness compared with ground cameras. We suggest expanded application of arboreal camera traps in future research, but we recommend longer trapping periods to better sample rarer species. Overall, arboreal camera trapping combined with occupancy modeling can be a highly efficient and useful approach for monitoring and predicting the occurrence of elusive lemur species and has the potential to be effective for other arboreal primates and canopy taxa across the globe.

Using occupancy-based camera-trap surveys to assess the Critically Endangered primate Macaca nigra across its range in North Sulawesi, Indonesia

Primates are one of the most threatened groups of mammals. Understanding their patterns of population occurrence and abundance, especially in response to threats, is critical for informing conservation action. The crested black macaque Macaca nigra is the only Critically Endangered species of Sulawesi's seven endemic macaques. Little is known about its distribution or its response to deforestation and hunting. We conducted a camera-trap survey across the entire species range using an occupancy-based analytical approach to (1) establish the first range-wide baseline of occurrence, (2) investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence occurrence, (3) identify priority conservation subpopulations, and (4) test the efficacy of the sampling and analytical protocol for temporal monitoring of M. nigra using occupancy as the state variable. From 9,753 camera-trap days, M. nigra was detected on 473 days at 77 of the 111 camera locations. Species occupancy was 0.66 and highest inside protected areas and closed canopy forest. We identified eight distinct subpopulations, based on distribution and forest fragment size. To inform future monitoring, we used a power analysis to determine if our effort would allow us to detect inter-annual occupancy declines of 10%, and found that 90 camera locations surveyed for 3 months (8,100 camera days) across three consecutive seasons is the effort required to detect such change with 80% certainty. Our study underscores the importance of well-managed protected areas and intact forests for the long-term survival of the crested black macaque, and tests the effectiveness of camera traps to monitor primates at the landscape scale.

Monitoring occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities for gibbon populations

All gibbon species (Family: Hylobatidae) are considered threatened with extinction and recognized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. Because gibbons are one of the most threatened families of primates, monitoring their status is now critically important. Long-term monitoring programs applying occupancy approaches, in addition to assessing occurrence probability, improves understanding of other population parameters such as site extinction or colonization probabilities, which elucidate temporal and spatial changes and are therefore important for guiding conservation efforts. In this study, we used multiple season occupancy models to monitor occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities for northern yellow-cheeked crested gibbon Nomascus annamensis in three adjacent protected areas in the Central Annamites mountain range, Vietnam. We collected data at 30 listening posts in 2012, 2014, and 2016 using the auditory point count method. Occurrence probabilities were highest in 2012 (0.74, confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.87) but slightly lower in 2014 (0.66, CI: 0.51-0.79) and 2016 (0.67, CI: 0.49-0.81). Extinction probabilities during the 2012-2014 and 2014-2016 intervals were 0.26 (0.14-0.44) and 0.25 (0.12-0.44), respectively. Colonization probabilities during 2012-2014 were 0.44 (0.19-0.73) and between 2014 and 2016 was 0.51 (0.26-0.75). Although local site extinctions have occurred, high recolonization probability helped to replenish the unoccupied sites and kept the occurrence probability stable. Long-term monitoring programs which use occurrence probability alone might not fully reveal the true dynamics of gibbon populations. We strongly recommend including multiple season occupancy models to monitor occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities in long-term gibbon monitoring programs.

Distribution and conservation status of Boutourlini's blue monkey (Cercopithecus mitis boutourlinii), a Vulnerable subspecies endemic to western Ethiopia

Reliable data on the distribution and threats facing primate species are crucial to identifying priority sites for conservation and designing effective management plans. Boutourlini's blue monkey (Cercopithecus mitis boutourlinii) is a little-known arboreal primate endemic to the forests of western Ethiopia. This subspecies is categorized as Vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and the distribution of extant populations is largely unknown. To increase our knowledge of the spatial distribution and conservation status of Boutourlini's blue monkey, we carried out intensive reconnaissance surveys from January 2010 to May 2011 across approximately 40% of its potential range and conducted interviews with local people at each of the survey locations. We carried out geospatial analyses and mapped the distribution of Boutourlini's blue monkey localities with respect to elevation, protected area status, and changes in forest cover over time using ArcGIS 10.4.0. Through our surveys, we discovered 30 previously unknown Boutourlini's blue monkey populations in three administrative regions of western Ethiopia (Amhara, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's Regions). A total of 34 different groups were sighted and counted at the survey sites, averaging 14.7 members (range 8-23) per group. There are now 32 Boutourlini's blue monkey populations of recently confirmed occurrence at altitudes ranging from 1039 to 2780 m asl, seven in forests of greater than 50 km². Crop feeding by Boutourlini's blue monkeys was reported by people at seven sites and confirmed through direct observation at three of these sites. None of the known extant populations of Boutourlini's blue monkeys occur within a strictly protected area (e.g., national park) where exploitative human activities are outlawed. A complete reassessment of the distribution and conservation status of Boutourlini's blue monkey will require further surveys across the remaining approximately 60% of its potential range.

Assessment of survey protocol for estimates of abundance for elusive nocturnal primates

Abstract ContextEstimates of a species abundance and habitat preferences provide vital information on their status and the appropriate conservation management. For nocturnal arboreal primates, obtaining reliable estimates of these parameters is particularly challenging because of their cryptic behaviour, often resulting in a small number of detections. Although techniques are available for assessing the abundance of species with a low probability of detection, most require strict assumptions that are difficult to meet. AimsHere, we aimed to explore the possibility of improving nocturnal-primate abundance estimates when detection probability is low and to determine the minimal effort required to calculate reasonable estimates of their overall abundance and the effect of habitat type on abundance estimates. MethodsWe used count data obtained from spotlighting along line transects for estimating density of Bengal slow loris (Nycticebus bengalensis) in north-eastern Thailand with N-mixture hierarchical modelling, to run simulations of varying survey parameters and asses the effort needed to produce robust estimates based on the relative bias from each simulation. Key resultsN-mixture analysis showed that the data obtained from our study were still biased (9%), with a lambda of 1.79 lorises, detection probability of 0.11, 50 survey sites and a maximum of 12 sample occasions. The simulation results found that increasing the number of sample occasions to 14 per transect would produce an acceptable bias (<5%). ConclusionsWe recommend that future studies on nocturnal arboreal species should use preliminary surveys to gauge the specific lambda and probability of detection so as to establish the effort needed to produce reasonable estimates of abundance. ImplicationsOur study showed that count data obtained from spotlighting can be used to produce robust abundance estimates of nocturnal arboreal species. Unlike simple encounter rate, this method incorporates detection probability and habitat preferences, yet does not require additional trained field technicians.

Survey design for broad-scale, territory-based occupancy monitoring of a raptor: Ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis) as a case study

Given the uncertain population status of low-density, widely-occurring raptors, monitoring changes in abundance and distribution is critical to conserving populations. Nest-based monitoring is a common, useful approach, but the difficulty and expense of monitoring raptor nests and importance of reliable trend data to conservation requires that limited resources are allocated efficiently. Power analyses offer a helpful tool to ensure that monitoring programs have the ability to detect trends and to optimize financial resources devoted to monitoring. We evaluated alternative monitoring designs for raptors to identify appropriate survey effort to detect population trends. We used data collected from a territory-occupancy study of ferruginous hawks throughout Wyoming to guide simulations and evaluate the ability to detect trends in occupancy rates. Results suggest that greater gains in precision of trend estimation may be achieved through the addition of more sites and not more visits; statistical power was ≥80% when monitoring lasted 20 years and population declines were 20%; and probability of detection affected statistical power less than rates of population decline. Monitoring at least 150 sites for 20 years would provide reasonable estimates of trend in occupancy given certain rates of detection and occupancy, but only for population declines of 20%. Removal sampling did not result in substantial changes of any metrics used to evaluate simulations, providing little justification for employing the standard design if territory occupancy is the variable of interest. Initial rates of territory occupancy may be biased high, a problem inherent to many studies that monitor territory occupancy. We explored the effects of lower rates of initial occupancy on the ability to detect trends. Although we present data from a study of ferruginous hawks, our simulations can be applied to other raptor species with similar life history and population dynamics to provide guidance for future trend estimation of territory occupancy.

To see or not to see: investigating detectability of Ganges River dolphins using a combined visual-acoustic survey

Detection of animals during visual surveys is rarely perfect or constant, and failure to account for imperfect detectability affects the accuracy of abundance estimates. Freshwater cetaceans are among the most threatened group of mammals, and visual surveys are a commonly employed method for estimating population size despite concerns over imperfect and unquantified detectability. We used a combined visual-acoustic survey to estimate detectability of Ganges River dolphins (Platanista gangetica gangetica) in four waterways of southern Bangladesh. The combined visual-acoustic survey resulted in consistently higher detectability than a single observer-team visual survey, thereby improving power to detect trends. Visual detectability was particularly low for dolphins close to meanders where these habitat features temporarily block the view of the preceding river surface. This systematic bias in detectability during visual-only surveys may lead researchers to underestimate the importance of heavily meandering river reaches. Although the benefits of acoustic surveys are increasingly recognised for marine cetaceans, they have not been widely used for monitoring abundance of freshwater cetaceans due to perceived costs and technical skill requirements. We show that acoustic surveys are in fact a relatively cost-effective approach for surveying freshwater cetaceans, once it is acknowledged that methods that do not account for imperfect detectability are of limited value for monitoring.

Sacred populations of Cercopithecus sclateri: analysis of apparent population increases from census counts

The development of effective conservation and management actions for populations of wild species generally requires monitoring programs that provide reliable estimates of population size over time. Primate researchers have to date given more attention to evaluating techniques for monitoring primates in natural habitats compared to populations that occur in villages or urban areas. We conducted censuses to estimate the abundance and density of two sacred, village-dwelling populations (Lagwa and Akpugoeze) of Sclater's monkey (Cercopithecus sclateri), a threatened species endemic to southeastern Nigeria, and compared these data to previous census results. We recorded population increases in both sites: a 66% increase over 4½ years in Lagwa (from 124 to 206 individuals) at an annual rate of 10.2%, and a 29% increase over 4 years in Akpugoeze (from 193 to 249 individuals) at an annual rate of 5.7%. Mean group size also increased in both sites. Density in Lagwa was 24.2 individuals/km(2) , and density in a core survey area of Akpugoeze was 36-38 individuals/km(2) . Our results may have been affected by monkey ranging and grouping patterns and improved detectability due to our revised census technique, which included secondary observers. With further work on methodology for censusing populations that occur in human-settled environments, techniques can be refined and customized to individual sites for more accurate estimates. Our investigation of Sclater's monkey in Lagwa and Akpugoeze, two sites critical for conservation of the species, indicated that both of these populations have increased, and neither faces immediate risk of extirpation. Such population growth, while encouraging, will likely exacerbate human-monkey conflict and thus should be understood in terms of potential socioeconomic impacts.