Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered Przewalski's gazelle

Niche Divergence at Intraspecific Level in the Hyrcanian Wood Frog, Rana pseudodalmatina: A Phylogenetic, Climatic, and Environmental Survey

The role of ecological niche divergence in lineage speciation has recently stimulated the interest of evolutionary biologists and ecologists. Phylogenetic analysis has revealed that the Hyrcanian wood frog, Rana pseudodalmatina, has diverged into two western and eastern regional clades (WRC and ERC) within the Hyrcanian forest. The goal of this study was to investigate whether the ecological niches of WRC and ERC are conserved or diverged, as well as to figure out what variables promote niche conservatism or divergence. For this purpose, the maximum entropy model was employed to assess environmental niche modeling in geographical (G) space utilizing climatic and macro-environmental data. The niche overlap, equivalency, and similarity tests based on PCAenv analyses were used to assess niche divergence or conservatism in environmental (E) space. The findings strongly support the hypothesis that WRC and ERC have undergone substantial niche divergence and are constrained by a unique set of climatic and macro-environmental conditions. This study by ecological niche comparisons based on phylogenetic data provides new insights into the exploration of species diversification processes in the Hyrcanian forests.

Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog

Background

Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog.

Results

We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that “overwarm” climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50–75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward.

Conclusions

Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-021-00398-w.

Genetic diversity in frogs linked to past and future climate changes on the roof of the world

Mountains, representing storehouses of biodiversity, endemism and threatened species, are biodiversity hotspots of great conservation importance. However, increasing evidence indicates that mountain species throughout the world are responding to climate change, past or contemporary, by shifting their geographic distributions and patterns of genetic diversity, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and increasing risk of extinction. Using the iconic high-elevation frog Nanorana parkeri as indicator, we showed how spatial analyses of climatic stability combined with genetic data allow unravelling amphibian responses to past and future climate changes on 'the roof of the world'-the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that areas along the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley were climatically more stable relative to other regions, apparently serving as a large climatic refugium during Quaternary glaciations, but that these areas will likely be affected by future climate change. As populations closer to Quaternary refugia usually had higher genetic diversity, current genetic diversity can be explained in the largest part by distance to historically stable areas, outweighing other historical and contemporary factors. Along with the dynamics of suitable range, a fluctuating habitat fragmentation supported the pattern of historical changes in genetic diversity (N_e ) over time. Our results emphasize strong relationships between amphibian genetic diversity, past range dynamics and where to preserve suitable habitats in the face of future climate changes. More generally, our findings highlighted a central role of refugia during Quaternary climatic fluctuations, and how isolation from refugia may have modulated amphibian genetic diversity across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

Qinghai spruce forests play a key role in water conservation in the dry region of northwest China. So, it is necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on the species to implement adaptation strategies. Based on the four-emission scenario (i.e., RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report, in the study, we predicted the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy (Maxent) model. Seven variables, selected from 22 variables according to correlation analysis combining with their contribution rates to the distribution, are used to simulate the potential distribution of the species under current and future scenarios. Simulated results are validated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results demonstrate that elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal range are more important in dominating the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce. Ratios of the suitable area to the total study area are 34.3% in current climate condition, 34% in RCP2.6, 33.9% in RCP4.5, 33.8% in RCP6.0, and 30.5% in RCP8.5, respectively. The warmer the climate condition is, the more area of higher suitable classification is changed to that of lower suitable classification. The ratios of real distribution area in simulated unsuitable class to the real distribution area change from 4.3% (60.7 km2) in the current climate to 13% (185 km2) in RCP8.5, suggesting that the real distribution area may decrease in the future. We conclude that there is a negative effect of climate change on the distribution of Qinghai spruce forest. The result can help decision-makers to draft adaptation countermeasures based on climate change.

Niche conservatism in Gynandropaa frogs on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The role of ecological niche in lineage diversification has been the subject of long-standing interest of ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Gynandropaa frogs diversified into three independent clades endemic to the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, we address the question whether these clades kept the same niche after separation, and what it tells us about possible diversification processes. We applied predictions in geographical (G)-space and tests of niche conservatism in environmental (E)-space. Niche models in G-space indicate separate regions with high suitability for the different clades, with some potential areas of sympatry. While the pair of central and eastern clades displayed the largest niche overlap for most variables, and strict niche equivalency was rejected for all clade-pairs, we found no strong evidence for niche divergence, but rather the signature of niche conservatism compared to null models in E-space. These results suggest a common ancestral ecological niche, and as such give good support to divergence through allopatric speciation, but alternative explanations are also possible. Our findings illustrate how testing for niche conservatism in lineage diversification can provide insights into underlying speciation processes, and how this information may guide further research and conservation practices, as illustrated here for amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Simulation of potential habitat overlap between red deer (Cervus elaphus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in northeastern China

Background. Understanding species distribution, especially areas of overlapping habitat between sympatric species, is essential for informing conservation through natural habitat protection. New protection strategies should simultaneously consider conservation efforts for multiple species that exist within the same landscape, which requires studies that include habitat overlap analysis.

Methods. We estimated the potential habitat of cervids, which are typical ungulates in northern China, using the present locations of red deer (Cervus elaphus; N = 90) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus; N = 106) in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our study area was a human-dominated landscape in the Tieli Forestry Bureau located at the southern slope of the Lesser Xing’an Mountains. We grouped 17 environmental predictor variables into five predictor classes (terrain, habitat accessibility, land cover, vegetation feature, and interference), which were used to build habitat suitability models.

Results. Habitat accessibility and human interferences were found to have the strongest influence on habitat suitability among the five variable classes. Among the environmental factors, distance to farmland (26.8%), distance to bush-grass land (14.6%), elevation (13.5%), and distance to water source (12.2%) were most important for red deer, distance to farmland (22.9%), distance to settlement (21.4%), elevation (11.6%), and coverage of shrub-grass (8%) were most important for roe deer. Model accuracy was high for both species (mean area under the curve (AUC) = 0.936 for red deer and 0.924 for roe deer). The overlapping habitat comprised 89.93 km² within the study area, which occupied 94% of potentially suitable habitat for red deer and 27% for roe deer.

Conclusions. In terms of habitat suitability, roe deer showed greater selectivity than red deer. The overlapping habitat was mostly located in the eastern mountains. The southwestern plain was not a suitable habitat for deer because it was close to Tieli City. Regarding management measures, we suggest that priority protection should be given to the potential areas of overlapping deer habitats found in this study.

Predicting the potential distribution of the Endangered huemul deer Hippocamelus bisulcus in North Patagonia

Habitat loss is one of the main threats to wildlife, particularly large mammals. Estimating the potential distribution of threatened species to guide surveys and conservation is crucial, primarily because such species tend to exist in small fragmented populations. The Endangered huemul deer Hippocamelus bisulcus is endemic to the southern Andes of Chile and Argentina. Although the species occurs in the Valdivian Ecoregion, a hotspot for biodiversity, we have no information on its occupancy and potential distribution in this region. We built and compared species distribution models for huemul using the maximum entropy approach, using 258 presence records and sets of bioclimatic and geographical variables as predictors, with the objective of assessing the potential distribution of the species in the Valdivian Ecoregion. Annual temperature range and summer precipitation were the predictive variables with the greatest influence in the best-fitting model. Approximately 12,360 km2 of the study area was identified as suitable habitat for the huemul, of which 30% is included in the national protected area systems of Chile and Argentina. The map of potential distribution produced by our model will facilitate prioritization of future survey efforts in other remote and unexplored areas in which huemul have not been recorded since the 1980s but where there is a high probability of their occurrence.

The Influence of Data Resolution on Predicted Distribution and Estimates of Extent of Current Protection of Three 'Listed' Deep-Sea Habitats

Modelling approaches have the potential to significantly contribute to the spatial management of the deep-sea ecosystem in a cost effective manner. However, we currently have little understanding of the accuracy of such models, developed using limited data, of varying resolution. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of predictive models constructed using non-simulated (real world) data of different resolution. Predicted distribution maps for three deep-sea habitats were constructed using MaxEnt modelling methods using high resolution multibeam bathymetric data and associated terrain derived variables as predictors. Model performance was evaluated using repeated 75/25 training/test data partitions using AUC and threshold-dependent assessment methods. The overall extent and distribution of each habitat, and the percentage contained within an existing MPA network were quantified and compared to results from low resolution GEBCO models. Predicted spatial extent for scleractinian coral reef and Syringammina fragilissima aggregations decreased with an increase in model resolution, whereas Pheronema carpenteri total suitable area increased. Distinct differences in predicted habitat distribution were observed for all three habitats. Estimates of habitat extent contained within the MPA network all increased when modelled at fine scale. High resolution models performed better than low resolution models according to threshold-dependent evaluation. We recommend the use of high resolution multibeam bathymetry data over low resolution bathymetry data for use in modelling approaches. We do not recommend the use of predictive models to produce absolute values of habitat extent, but likely areas of suitable habitat. Assessments of MPA network effectiveness based on calculations of percentage area protection (policy driven conservation targets) from low resolution models are likely to be fit for purpose.

A Geographic Assessment of the Global Scope for Rewilding with Wild-Living Horses (Equus ferus)

Megafaunas worldwide have been decimated during the late Quaternary. Many extirpated species were keystone species, and their loss likely has had large effects on ecosystems. Therefore, it is increasingly considered how megafaunas can be restored. The horse (Equus ferus) is highly relevant in this context as it was once extremely widespread and, despite severe range contraction, survives in the form of domestic, feral, and originally wild horses. Further, it is a functionally important species, notably due to its ability to graze coarse, abrasive grasses. Here, we used species distribution modelling to link locations of wild-living E. ferus populations to climate to estimate climatically suitable areas for wild-living E. ferus. These models were combined with habitat information and past and present distributions of equid species to identify areas suitable for rewilding with E. ferus. Mean temperature in the coldest quarter, precipitation in the coldest quarter, and precipitation in the driest quarter emerged as the best climatic predictors. The distribution models estimated the climate to be suitable in large parts of the Americas, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia and, combined with habitat mapping, revealed large areas to be suitable for rewilding with horses within its former range, including up to 1.5 million ha within five major rewilding areas in Europe. The widespread occurrence of suitable climates and habitats within E. ferus’ former range together with its important functions cause it to be a key candidate for rewilding in large parts of the world. Successful re-establishment of wild-living horse populations will require handling the complexity of human–horse relations, for example, potential conflicts with ranchers and other agriculturalists or with other conservation aims, perception as a non-native invasive species in some regions, and coverage by legislation for domestic animals.

Niche divergence accelerates evolution in Asian endemic Procapra gazelles

Ecological niche divergence and adaptation to new environments are thought to play important roles in driving speciation. Whether recently evolved species show evidence for niche divergence or conservation is vital towards understanding the role of ecology in the process of speciation. The genus Procapra is an ancient, monophyletic lineage endemic to Asia that contains three extant species (P. gutturosa, P. przewalskii and P. picticaudata). These species mainly inhabit the Qinghai-Tibetan and Mongolian Plateaus, and today have primarily allopatric distributions. We applied a series of geographic information system-based analyses to test for environmental variation and niche divergence among these three species. We found substantial evidence for niche divergence in species' bioclimatic preferences, which supports the hypothesis that niche divergence accelerates diversification in Procapra. Our results provide important insight into the evolutionary history of ungulates in Asia and help to elucidate how environmental changes accelerate lineage diversification.

Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change

It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.

A spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the endangered Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) in a patchy landscape

Background

Habitat fragmentation, associated with human population expansion, impedes dispersal, reduces gene flow and aggravates inbreeding in species on the brink of extinction. Both scientific and conservation communities increasingly realize that maintaining and restoring landscape connectivity is of vital importance in biodiversity conservation. Prior to any conservation initiatives, it is helpful to present conservation practitioners with a spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the target species or landscape.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using Przewalski’s gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) as a model of endangered ungulate species in highly fragmented landscape, we present a model providing spatially explicit information to inform the long-term preservation of well-connected metapopulations. We employed a Geographic Information System (GIS) and expert-literature method to create a habitat suitability map, to identify potential habitats and to delineate a functional connectivity network (least-cost movement corridors and paths) for the gazelle. Results indicated that there were limited suitable habitats for the gazelle, mainly found to the north and northwest of the Qinghai Lake where four of five potential habitat patches were identified. Fifteen pairs of least-cost corridors and paths were mapped connecting eleven extant populations and two neighboring potential patches. The least-cost paths ranged from 0.2 km to 26.8 km in length (averaging 12.4 km) and were all longer than corresponding Euclidean distances.

Conclusions/Significance

The model outputs were validated and supported by the latest findings in landscape genetics of the species, and may provide impetus for connectivity conservation programs. Dispersal barriers were examined and appropriate mitigation strategies were suggested. This study provides conservation practitioners with thorough and visualized information to reserve the landscape connectivity for Przewalski’s gazelle. In a general sense, we proposed a heuristic framework for species with similar biological and ecological characteristics.

Detecting the potential sympatric range and niche divergence between Asian endemic ungulates of Procapra

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly used to reveal biogeographical relationships, for example the sympatric range for species coexistence, and fundamental questions about niche evolution between related species. We explored the sympatric ranges between three Procapra species (Procapra przewalskii, Procapra Picticaudata, and Procapra gutturosa) via two methods of defining the study region (method 1, in which models were developed in a larger region including the whole geographic range of Procapra, and method 2 in which a smaller region surrounding focal species' localities was used and then projected to the larger region). We also quantified environmental niche divergence between gazelles across the whole range in Procapra. Models for gazelles generally performed well. Compared with method 2, method 1 led to larger predicted areas with high suitability and was less concentrated around known localities. Clamping, which deals with variables outside the training range, varied between gazelles and occurred primarily in regions unsuitable for respective species. For all gazelle pairs, models revealed an overlap zone where more than one species should occur, while the estimates varied between the two methods. Moreover, we found that the niche overlap was closely associated with geographic distance but not with phylogenetic distance among gazelles. Our findings indicate that SDM is a useful tool for testing whether related species tend to be in sympatry at large scales, with method 1 leading to more realistic predictions for Procapra. This study provides evidence of a distinct niche divergence among related species and supports the theory that ecological speciation plays a significant role in lineage generation.

Climate change hastens the conservation urgency of an endangered ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change.

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.