The role of human papillomavirus testing in the management of women with low-grade abnormalities: multicentre randomised controlled trial

High-risk Human Papillomavirus Testing for Triage of Women with Previous Cytological Abnormalities from the Vale do Ribeira Region

OBJECTIVE

 To evaluate the performance of the hybrid capture 2 (HC2) high-risk papillomavirus (hrHPV) assay and cytological test in women with previous abnormalities, to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (≥ CIN 2).

METHODS

 A cytological test and HC2 (Qiagen, Gaithersburg, Maryland, EUA) for hrHPV were conducted in 359 liquid-based (Sure Path, Becton Dickinson, TriPath Imaging, Burlington, NC, USA) samples collected from women from the Vale do Ribeira Region, during July 2013 and September 2015 with previous cytology classified as atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US), low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (ASC-H), and atypical glandular cells (AGC). The histopathological examination was conducted in 179 women. The performance evaluations were calculated using the "exact" Clopper-Pearson 95% confidence interval (CI) test by MEDCALC (Medcalc Software Ltd, Ostend, Belgium).

RESULTS

 The ≥ CIN 2 frequency was 11.7% (21/179). The HC2 for hrHPV and repeat cytology to detect ≥ CIN 2 obtained, respectively, a sensitivity of 90.5% (95%CI = 69.6-98.8) and 90.5%, (95%CI = 69.6-98.8), a specificity of 65.8% (95% CI = 57.9-73.2) and 43.7% (95%CI = 35.8-51.8), a positive predictive value of 26.0% (95% CI = 21.4-31.3) and 17.6%, (95%CI = 14.9-20.6), and a negative predictive value of 98.1% (95%CI = 93.3-99.5) and 97.2% (95% CI = 90.1-99.2).

CONCLUSION

 Hybrid capture 2 for hrHPV improves the performance of the detection of ≥ CIN 2, without compromising sensitivity, and provides a greater safety margin to return to the triennial screening of women undergoing follow-up due to previous abnormalities, without underlying ≥ CIN 2.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for assessing suspected cervical abnormalities: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS)map (DySIS Medical Ltd, Edinburgh, UK) and ZedScan (Zilico Limited, Manchester, UK) can be used adjunctively with conventional colposcopy, which may improve the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and implementation of DySISmap and ZedScan as adjuncts to standard colposcopy, and to develop a cost-effectiveness model.

METHODS

Four parallel systematic reviews were performed on diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness issues, implementation and economic analyses. In January 2017 we searched databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) for studies in which DySISmap or ZedScan was used adjunctively with standard colposcopy to detect CIN or cancer in women referred to colposcopy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated using bivariate and other regression models when appropriate. Other outcomes were synthesised narratively. A patient-level state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DySISmap and ZedScan under either human papillomavirus (HPV) triage or the HPV primary screening algorithm. The model included two types of clinics ['see and treat' and 'watchful waiting' (i.e. treat later after confirmatory biopsy)], as well as the reason for referral (low-grade or high-grade cytological smear). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included in the diagnostic review (nine of DySISmap and two of ZedScan), three were included in the clinical effectiveness review (two of DySISmap and one of ZedScan) and five were included in the implementation review (four of DySISmap and one of ZedScan). Adjunctive DySISmap use was found to have a higher sensitivity for detecting CIN grade 2+ (CIN 2+) lesions [81.25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72.2% to 87.9%] than standard colposcopy alone (57.91%, 95% CI 47.2% to 67.9%), but with a lower specificity (70.40%, 95% CI 59.4% to 79.5%) than colposcopy (87.41%, 95% CI 81.7% to 91.5%). (Confidential information has been removed.) The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that adjunctive DySISmap routinely dominated standard colposcopy (it was less costly and more effective). The only exception was for high-grade referrals in a watchful-waiting clinic setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ZedScan varied between £272 and £4922 per quality-adjusted life-year. ZedScan also dominated colposcopy alone for high-grade referrals in see-and-treat clinics. These findings appeared to be robust to a wide range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

LIMITATIONS

All but one study was rated as being at a high risk of bias. There was no evidence directly comparing ZedScan with standard colposcopy. No studies directly compared DySIS and ZedScan.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of adjunctive DySIS increases the sensitivity for detecting CIN 2+, so it increases the number of high-grade CIN cases that are detected. However, it also reduces specificity, so that more women with no or low-grade CIN will be incorrectly judged as possibly having high-grade CIN. The evidence for ZedScan was limited, but it appears to increase sensitivity and decrease specificity compared with colposcopy alone. The cost-effectiveness of both adjunctive technologies compared with standard colposcopy, under both the HPV triage and primary screening algorithms, appears to be favourable when compared with the conventional thresholds used to determine value in the NHS.

FUTURE WORK

More diagnostic accuracy studies of ZedScan are needed, as are studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy for women referred to colposcopy as part of the HPV primary screening programme.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017054515.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Influence of Human Papillomavirus Infection on the Natural History of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia 1: A Meta-Analysis

Objective

To provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (CIN1). This study evaluated the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection on the natural history of CIN1.

Methods

Electronic databases of Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PubMed, CNKI, CBM, and Wanfang were searched in April 2016. The eligibility criteria were documented by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). We used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) to assess study quality.

Results

Thirty-eight studies out of 3,246 identified papers were eligible for inclusion. The risk of CIN1 progression (relative risk [RR]: 3.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.41–3.83; P < 0.00001) and persistence (RR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.17–1.87; P = 0.001) was higher in the HPV-positive group than HPV-negative group. Specifically, the risk of CIN1 progression (RR: 13.91; 95% CI: 3.46–55.90; P = 0.000) was higher among persistent high-risk HPV-positive patients and the ratio of CIN1 regression (RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.71; P < 0.00001) was lower in the HPV-positive group than HPV-negative group.

Conclusion

HPV infection resulted in an increased risk of CIN1 progression and decreased disease reversibility. Persistent high-risk HPV infection resulted in a further increased risk of CIN1 progression.

Immediate referral to colposcopy versus cytological surveillance for minor cervical cytological abnormalities in the absence of HPV test

BACKGROUND

A significant number of women are diagnosed with minor cytological abnormalities on cervical screening. Many authorities recommend surveillance as spontaneous regression might occur. However, attendance for cytological follow-up decreases with time and might put some women at risk of developing invasive disease.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the optimum management strategy for women with minor cervical cytological abnormalities (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance - ASCUS or low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions - LSIL) at primary screening in the absence of HPV (human papillomavirus) DNA test.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL Issue 4, 2016), MEDLINE (1946 to April week 2 2016) and Embase (1980 to 2016 week 16).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing immediate colposcopy to cytological surveillance in women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS/borderline) or low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions (LSIL/mild dyskaryosis).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcome measure studied was the occurrence of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN). The secondary outcome measures studied included default rate, clinically significant anxiety and depression, and other self-reported adverse effects.We classified studies according to period of surveillance, at 6, 12, 24 or 36 months, as well as at 18 months, excluding a possible exit-examination. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model with inverse variance weighting. Inter-study heterogeneity was assessed with I² statistics.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified five RCTs with 11,466 participants that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were 18 cases of invasive cervical cancer, seven in the immediate colposcopy and 11 in the cytological surveillance groups, respectively. Although immediate colposcopy detects CIN2+ and CIN3+ earlier than cytology, the differences were no longer observed at 24 months (CIN2+: 3 studies, 4331 women; 17.9% versus 18.3%, RR 1.14, CI 0.66 to 1.97; CIN3+: 3 studies, 4331 women; 10.3% versus 11.9%, RR 1.02, CI 0.53 to 1.97). The inter-study heterogeneity was considerable (I² greater than 90%). Furthermore, the inclusion of the results of the exit examinations at 24 months, which could inflate the CIN detection rate of cytological surveillance, may have led to study design-derived bias; we therefore considered the evidence to be of low quality.When we excluded the exit examination, the detection rate of high-grade lesions at the 18-month follow-up was higher after immediate colposcopy (CIN2+: 2 studies, 4028 women; 14.3% versus 10.1%, RR 1.50, CI 1.12 to 2.01; CIN3+: 2 studies, 4028 women, 7.8% versus 6.9%, RR 1.24, CI 0.77 to 1.98) both had substantial inter-study heterogeneity (I² greater than 60%) and we considered the evidence to be of moderate quality).The meta-analysis revealed that immediate referral to colposcopy significantly increased the detection of clinically insignificant cervical abnormalities, as opposed to repeat cytology after 24 months of surveillance (occurrence of koilocytosis: 2 studies, 656 women; 32% versus 21%, RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.90; moderate-quality evidence) incidence of any CIN: 2 studies, 656 women; 64% versus 32%, RR 2.02, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.08, low-quality evidence; incidence of CIN1: 2 studies, 656 women; 21% versus 8%, RR 2.58, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.94, moderate-quality evidence).Due to differences in trial designs and settings, there was large variation in default rates between the included studies. The risk for default was higher for the repeat cytology group, with a four-fold increase at 6 months, a six-fold at 12 and a 19-fold at 24 months (6 months: 3 studies, 5117 women; 6.3% versus 13.3%, RR 3.85, 95% CI 1.27 to 11.63, moderate-quality evidence; 12 months: 3 studies, 5115 women; 6.3% versus 14.8%, RR 6.39, 95% CI 1.49 to 29.29, moderate-quality evidence; 24 months: 3 studies, 4331 women; 0.9% versus 16.1%, RR 19.1, 95% CI 9.02 to 40.43, moderate-quality evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on low- or moderate-quality evidence using the GRADE approach and generally low risk of bias, the detection rate of CIN2+ or CIN3+ after two years does not appear to differ between immediate colposcopy and cytological surveillance in the absence of HPV testing, although women may default from follow-up. Immediate colposcopy probably leads to earlier detection of high-grade lesions, but also detects more clinically insignificant low-grade lesions. Colposcopy may therefore be the first choice when good compliance is not assured. These results emphasize the need for an accurate reflex HPV triage test to distinguish women who need diagnostic follow-up from those who can return safely to routine recall.

Predictive value of p16/Ki-67 immunocytochemistry for triage of women with abnormal Papanicolaou test in cervical cancer screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The Papanicolaou (Pap) test is one screening strategy used to prevent cervical cancer in developed countries. The p16/Ki-67 immunocytochemistry is a triage test performed on Pap smears in women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low grade squamous intraepithelial lesion.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to review studies investigating the diagnostic performance of p16/Ki-67 dual stain for triage of women with abnormal Pap tests.

DESIGN

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies.

SETTINGS

We followed the protocol of systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We searched PubMed, The Cochrane Library, BioMed Central, and ClinicalTrials.gov for relevant studies. We included research that assessed the accuracy of p16/Ki-67 dual stain and high risk human papillomavirus testing for triage of abnormal Pap smears. Review articles and studies that provided insufficient data to construct 2.2 tables were excluded. Data synthesis was conducted using a random-effects model.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

In seven studies encompassing 2628 patients, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of p16/Ki-67 for triage of abnormal Pap smear results were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89 to 0.93) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.66), respectively. No study used a case-control design. A subgroup analysis involving liquid-based cytology showed a sensitivity of 0.91 (95%CI, 0.89 to 0.93) and specificity of 0.64 (95%CI, 0.61 to 0.66).

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis of p16/Ki-67 dual stain studies showed that the test achieved high sensitivity and moderate specificity for p16/Ki-67 immunocytochemistry for high-grade squamous intraepi.thelial lesion and cervical cancer. We suggest that p16/Ki-67 dual stain might be a reliable ancillary method identifying high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in women with abnormal Pap tests.

LIMITATIONS

No study in the meta-analysis examined the accuracy of the p16/Ki-67 dual stain for inter.pretation of glandular neoplasms.

Colposcopists' experiences of HPV Test of Cure for the follow up of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia

OBJECTIVE

To survey lead colposcopists in England to explore their views on the recently introduced HPV Test of Cure (TOC) following treatment for cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) and to determine the extent to which it has impacted their clinical practice and affected their patients.

METHODS

An online survey was sent to lead colposcopists across England. Questions were asked focusing on the clinicians' confidence in the ability of TOC to guide follow up in various clinical scenarios and how the implementation of TOC had changed patient management.

RESULTS

There was a 50% (N=88) response rate. 90% of respondents indicated they were happy with the new procedure. In the follow-up questions, 20% indicated they were uncomfortable with the procedure when it was applied to women who were CIN2+ with incomplete excision at the endocervical margin. Open-ended questions elicited positive aspects of TOC including reduced follow-up, increased reassurance for patients and clinicians and a faster return to the call-recall system. Negative observations included concerns around HPV positive cases, possible false negatives and anxiety in those women who were originally subject to the pre-TOC guidelines and were now returned to call-recall "earlier" than originally indicated to them. 11% of respondents also indicated they work around the new guidelines to some extent.

CONCLUSION

Although clinicians are on the whole positive towards the introduction of TOC, concerns were raised which centre primarily around those patients with CIN2+ combined with positive endocervical margins, issues related to HPV positive cases and the possibility of a false negative HPV result. The possibility of patient anxiety due to return to routine screening earlier than originally expected was also identified as a concern.

Primary HPV testing: a proposal for co-testing in initial rounds of screening to optimise sensitivity of cervical cancer screening

As explained by Kitchener in a previous issue of Cytopathology (2015;26:4-6), primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is likely to be introduced in the UK for all women aged 25-64 years following pilot site studies already in place. This will be necessary when the prevalence of cervical cancer and its precursors declines when vaccination takes effect but there is a risk in abandoning cytology as a primary test: a risk that would be most apparent in the present unvaccinated population in which the prevalence of cervical cancer and its precursors is exceptionally high. HPV testing is more sensitive than cytology but has a significant false-negative rate that could be detrimental to a successful screening programme if introduced without cytology backup. Accurate cytology would be needed for triage and could be compromised if HPV-negative tests were excluded from examination. This article proposes a compromise: cytology and HPV co-testing for the first two screening tests to optimise the sensitivity of the test as a whole. Registrations of invasive and in situ carcinoma of the uterine cervix in England indicate that the prevalence of the disease is highest in young women in the early rounds of screening. Calculations of the likely impact on the workload of this proposal have been based on a service evaluation of 295 cytology tests received at St Thomas' Hospital, which suggests that the volume of cytology tests would be reduced by approximately 60% compared with 80% for primary HPV testing alone. This proposal should be debated openly before irrevocable changes are made to a skilled workforce.

Exploiting biospectroscopy as a novel screening tool for cervical cancer: towards a framework to validate its accuracy in a routine clinical setting

Biospectroscopy is an emerging field that harnesses the platform of physical sciences with computational analysis in order to shed novel insights on biological questions. An area where this approach seems to have potential is in screening or diagnostic clinical settings, where there is an urgent need for new approaches to objectively interrogate large numbers of samples in an objective fashion with acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity. This review outlines the benefits of biospectroscopy in screening for precancer lesions of the cervix due to its ability to separate different grades of dysplasia. It evaluates the feasibility of introducing this technique into cervical screening programs on the basis of its ability to identify biomarkers of progression within derived spectra (‘biochemical‑cell fingerprints’).

High-risk human papillomavirus DNA test: could it be useful in low-grade cervical lesion triage? Five-year follow-up

We conducted a retrospective, observational study in order to evaluate the role of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)-DNA test in patients with first diagnosis of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (L-SILs).Patients were divided into group A, annual Papanicolaou test and hrHPV-DNA tests (167 patients) and group B, immediate colposcopy, followed by annual papanicolaou test and hrHPV-DNA tests (164 patients). We assessed sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value, positive-negative likelihood ratio of hrHPV-DNA test, and 5-year relative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in hrHPV-DNA+. Colposcopy is still considered the best choice for women with L-SIL and hrHPV-DNA+ test. High sensitivity and NPV of hrHPV-DNA test permit to use it in the follow-up of L-SIL with a HPV-negative status, without necessity of referring to colposcopy.

Human papillomavirus testing versus repeat cytology for triage of minor cytological cervical lesions

BACKGROUND

Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) and low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions (LSIL) are minor lesions of the cervical epithelium, detectable by cytological examination of cells collected from the surface of the cervix of a woman.Usually, women with ASCUS and LSIL do not have cervical (pre-) cancer, however a substantial proportion of them do have underlying high-grade cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN, grade 2 or 3) and so are at increased risk for developing cervical cancer. Therefore, accurate triage of women with ASCUS or LSIL is required to identify those who need further management.This review evaluates two ways to triage women with ASCUS or LSIL: repeating the cytological test, and DNA testing for high-risk types of the human papillomavirus (hrHPV) - the main causal factor of cervical cancer.

OBJECTIVES

Main objective To compare the accuracy of hrHPV testing with the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay against that of repeat cytology for detection of underlying cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) or grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) in women with ASCUS or LSIL. For the HC2 assay, a positive result was defined as proposed by the manufacturer. For repeat cytology, different cut-offs were used to define positivity: Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse (ASCUS+), low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions or worse (LSIL+) or high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions or worse (HSIL+).Secondary objective To assess the accuracy of the HC2 assay to detect CIN2+ or CIN3+ in women with ASCUS or LSIL in a larger group of reports of studies that applied hrHPV testing and the reference standard (coloscopy and biopsy), irrespective whether or not repeat cytology was done.

SEARCH METHODS

We made a comprehensive literature search that included the Cochrane Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies; the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE (through PubMed), and EMBASE (last search 6 January 2011). Selected journals likely to contain relevant papers were handsearched from 1992 to 2010 (December). We also searched CERVIX, the bibliographic database of the Unit of Cancer Epidemiology at the Scientific Institute of Public Health (Brussels, Belgium) which contains more than 20,000 references on cervical cancer.More recent searches, up to December 2012, targeted reports on the accuracy of triage of ASCUS or LSIL with other HPV DNA assays, or HPV RNA assays and other molecular markers. These searches will be used for new Cochrane reviews as well as for updates of the current review.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies eligible for inclusion in the review had to include: women presenting with a cervical cytology result of ASCUS or LSIL, who had undergone both HC2 testing and repeat cytology, or HC2 testing alone, and were subsequently subjected to reference standard verification with colposcopy and colposcopy-directed biopsies for histologic verification.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The review authors independently extracted data from the selected studies, and obtained additional data from report authors.Two groups of meta-analyses were performed: group I concerned triage of women with ASCUS, group II concerned women with LSIL. The bivariate model (METADAS-macro in SAS) was used to assess the absolute accuracy of the triage tests in both groups as well as the differences in accuracy between the triage tests.

MAIN RESULTS

The pooled sensitivity of HC2 was significantly higher than that of repeat cytology at cut-off ASCUS+ to detect CIN2+ in both triage of ASCUS and LSIL (relative sensitivity of 1.27 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.39; P value < 0.0001) and 1.23 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.4; P value 0.007), respectively. In ASCUS triage, the pooled specificity of the triage methods did not differ significantly from each other (relative specificity: 0.99 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.03; P value 0.98)). However, the specificity of HC2 was substantially, and significantly, lower than that of repeat cytology in the triage of LSIL (relative specificity: 0.66 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.75) P value < 0.0001).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

HPV-triage with HC2 can be recommended to triage women with ASCUS because it has higher accuracy (significantly higher sensitivity, and similar specificity) than repeat cytology. When triaging women with LSIL, an HC2 test yields a significantly higher sensitivity, but a significantly lower specificity, compared to a repeat cytology. Therefore, practice recommendations for management of women with LSIL should be balanced, taking local circumstances into account.

3q26 amplification is an effective negative triage test for LSIL: a historical prospective study

Background

Women with low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) at cervical cancer screening are currently referred for further diagnostic work up despite 80% having no precancerous lesion. The primary purpose of this study is to measure the test characteristics of 3q26 chromosome gain (3q26 gain) as a host marker of carcinogenesis in women with LSIL. A negative triage test may allow these women to be followed by cytology alone without immediate referral to colposcopy.

Methods and Findings

A historical prospective study was designed to measure 3q26 gain from the archived liquid cytology specimens diagnosed as LSIL among women attending colposcopy between 2007 and 2009. 3q26 gain was assessed on the index liquid sample; and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were measured at immediate triage and at 6–16 months after colposcopic biopsy. The sensitivity of 3q26 gain measured at immediate triage from automated and manually reviewed tests in 65 non-pregnant unique women was 70% (95% CI: 35, 93) with a NPV of 89% (95% CI: 78, 96). The sensitivity and NPV increased to 80% (95% CI: 28, 99) and 98% (95% CI: 87, 100), respectively, when only the automated method of detecting 3q26 gain was used.

Conclusions

3q26 gain demonstrates high sensitivity and NPV as a negative triage test for women with LSIL, allowing possible guideline changes to routine surveillance instead of immediate colposcopy. Prospective studies are ongoing to establish the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 3q26 gain for LSIL over time.

Long-term CIN3+ risk in women with abnormal cytology; role of hrHPV testing

Background:

Many studies have examined the short-term value of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing in predicting cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+). This study focuses on long-term CIN3+ risk after initial wait and see policy.

Methods:

A total of 342 women with abnormal cytology of borderline/mild dyskaryosis (BMD) or worse (>BMD), included between 1990 and 1992, were followed-up by cytology and hrHPV testing until 1996 and monitored by cytology thereafter. Primary endpoint was cumulative CIN3+ risk by December 2009.

Results:

Women with BMD had a 5-year CIN3+ risk of 22.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0–29.1) and of 0.7% (0.1–4.5) in the subsequent 5 years. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with BMD had a 5-year risk of <0.01% (95% CI 0.0–5.1) and of <0.01% (0.0–5.7) in the following 5 years, while for hrHPV-positive women these risks were 37.5% (29.0–46.9) and 1.6% (0.2–9.5), respectively. Women with >BMD had a 5-year risk of 45.1% (36.4–54.1) and of 3.5% (0.9–12.2) in the subsequent 5 years. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with >BMD had a 5-year risk of 7.3% (2.0–23.6) and hrHPV-positive women of 56.6% (46.4–66.3).

Conclusion:

Women with BMD have an elevated CIN3+ risk for 5 years only; afterwards their risk is similar to the general population. High-risk human papillomavirus-negative women with BMD may return to regular screening directly. All other women with ⩾BMD should be referred for additional testing and/or colposcopy.