Unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma: do we know who survives?

New Cancer-Related Symptoms Predict Recurrence in CA19-9 Non-Expressers After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

CA19-9 elevation has been reported to predict recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), although only two-thirds of patients are expressers. Preoperatively, cancer-related symptoms predict outcome; however, it is unknown whether symptoms predict recurrence during surveillance, particularly for CA19-9 non-expressers.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection of PDAC at our institution from 2012 to 21 (n = 165) were retrospectively reviewed for CA19-9 and symptoms, which were correlated with recurrence-free survival (RFS). Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

During postoperative surveillance, CA19-9 elevation and development of symptoms (abdominal pain, weight loss, or jaundice) were associated with worse RFS (P < .05). Multivariate analysis showed that both symptoms and CA19-9 were independently predictive of RFS (HR 1.8 [1.1-2.9; P = .025] and 2.5 [1.0-6.0; P = .048]). Among CA19-9 non-expressers (n = 51), development of symptoms was associated with detection of recurrence (P = .012).

CONCLUSIONS

Among CA19-9 non-expressers, development of symptoms predicted recurrence, providing a useful tool for recurrence detection in these patients.

Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified.

RESULTS

3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study.

CONCLUSION

Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

Survival and clinical outcome after endoscopic duodenal stent placement for malignant gastric outlet obstruction: comparison of pancreatic cancer and nonpancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Data on endoscopic stenting of malignant gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) are based on studies predominantly involving patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVE

To compare survival and clinical outcome after stent placement for GOO due to pancreatic cancer compared with nonpancreatic cancer.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Single tertiary hospital.

PATIENTS

A total of 292 patients with malignant GOO.

INTERVENTION

Stent placement.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Post-stent placement survival and clinical outcome.

RESULTS

In 196 patients with pancreatic cancer and 96 with nonpancreatic cancer, median post-stent placement survival was similar (2.7 months in pancreatic cancer vs 2.4 months in nonpancreatic cancer). Overall survival was shorter in patients with pancreatic cancer (13.7 vs 17.1 months; P = .004). Clinical success rates at 2 months (71% vs 91%) and reintervention rates (30% vs 23%) were comparable. Post-stent placement chemotherapy and the absence of distant metastasis were associated with better post-stent placement survival in both groups (pancreatic cancer: chemotherapy vs no chemotherapy, 5.4 vs 1.5 months, P < .0001; metastasis vs no metastasis, 1.8 vs 4.6, P = .005; nonpancreatic cancer: chemotherapy vs no chemotherapy, 9.2 vs 1.8, P = .001; metastasis vs no metastasis, 2.1 vs 6.1, P = .009).

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective study.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large series of patients undergoing stent placement for malignant GOO in North America, we observed no difference in post-stent placement survival despite better overall survival in patients with nonpancreatic cancer. GOO is a marker for poor survival in malignancy, regardless of the type. Chemotherapy and the absence of distant metastasis were associated with better post-stent placement survival in both groups.

A common genetic variation of melanoma inhibitory activity-2 labels a subtype of pancreatic adenocarcinoma with high endoplasmic reticulum stress levels

HNF1 homeobox A (HNF1A)-mediated gene expression constitutes an essential component of the secretory pathway in the exocrine pancreas. Melanoma inhibitory activity 2 (MIA2), a protein facilitating protein secretion, is an HNF1A target. Protein secretion is precisely coordinated by the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress/unfolded protein response (UPR) system. Here, we demonstrate that HNFA and MIA2 are expressed in a subset of human PDAC tissues and that HNF1A induced MIA2 in vitro. We identified a common germline variant of MIA2 (c.A617G: p.I141M) associated with a secretory defect of the MIA2 protein in PDAC cells. Patients carrying MIA2^I141M survived longer after tumor resection but the survival benefit was restricted to those patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. The MIA2^I141M variant was associated with high expression of ER stress/UPR genes – in particular those of the ERN1/XBP arm – in human PDAC samples. Accordingly, PDAC cell lines expressing the MIA2^I141M variant expressed high levels of ERN1 and were more sensitive to gemcitabine. These findings define an interaction between the common MIA2^I141M variant and the ER stress/UPR system and specify a subgroup of PDAC patients who are more likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Influence of cachexia and sarcopenia on survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Cachexia affects ∼ 80% of pancreatic cancer patients. An international consensus defines cachexia as an ongoing loss of skeletal muscle mass (sarcopenia) with or without loss of fat, which impairs body functioning and cannot be reversed by conventional nutritional measures. Weight loss percentage and elevated inflammation markers have been employed to define this condition earlier. This review aimed to assess the prevalence and consequences of cachexia and sarcopenia on survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

The systematic review was performed by searching the articles with preset terms published in PubMed and Cochrane Database until December 2013. After identifying relevant titles, abstracts were read and eligible articles data retrieved on preformatted sheets. The prevalence and impact of sarcopenia/cachexia on survival was evaluated.

RESULTS

In total 1145 articles were retrieved, only 10 were eligible. Definitions of cachexia and sarcopenia were heterogeneous. In patients with normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)) the prevalence of sarcopenia ranged from 29.7 to 65%. In overweight or obese patients (BMI >25 kg/m(2)) were 16.2%-67%. Sarcopenia alone was not demonstrated to be an independent factor of decreased survival, although obese sarcopenic patients were shown to have significantly worse survival in two studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Impact of cachexia and sarcopenia on survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is currently understudied in the available literature. Definitive association between cachexia and survival cannot be drawn from available studies, although weight loss and sarcopenic obesity might be considered as poor prognostic factors. Further prospective trials utilizing the consensus definition of cachexia and including other confounding factors are needed to investigate the impact of cachexia and sarcopenia on survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

McGill Brisbane Symptom Score for patients with resectable pancreatic head adenocarcinoma

AIM: To evaluate the ability of the McGill Brisbane Symptom Score (MBSS) to predict survival in resectable pancreatic head adenocarcinoma (PHA) patients.

METHODS: All PHA patients (n = 83) undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy at the McGill University Health Center, Quebec between 1/2001-1/2010 were evaluated. Data related to patient and cancer characteristics, MBSS variables, and treatment were collected; univariable and multivariable survival analyses were performed. We obtained complete follow-up until February 2011 in all patients through the database of the provincial health insurance plan of Quebec. The unique health insurance numbers of these patients were used to retrieve information from this database which captures all billable clinical encounters, and ensures 100% actual survival data.

RESULTS: Median survival was 23 mo overall: 45 mo for patients with low MBSS, 17 mo for high MBSS (P = 0.005). At twelve months survival was 83.3% (95%CI: 66.6-92.1) vs 58.1% (95%CI: 42.1-71.2) in those with low vs high MBSS, and24 mo survival was 63.8% (95%CI: 45.9-77.1) and 34.0% (95%CI: 20.2-48.2) respectively. In the multivariate Cox model (stratified by chemotherapy), after addition of clinically meaningful covariates, MBSS was the variable with the strongest association with survival (HR = 2.63; P = 0.001). Adjuvant chemotherapy interacted with MBSS category such that only high MBSS patients accrued a benefit. In univariate analysis we found a lower mortality in high MBSS but not low MBSS patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. This interaction variable, on Cox model, resulted in an adjusted mortality HR for the high MBSS (compared to low MBSS) of 4.14 (95%CI: 1.48-11.64) without chemotherapy and 2.11 (95%CI: 1.06-4.17) with chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION: The MBSS is a simple prognostic tool for resectable PHA. Preoperative categorization of patients according to the MBSS allows effective stratification of patients to guide therapy.

Pancreatic cancer and predictors of survival: comparing the CA 19-9/bilirubin ratio with the McGill Brisbane Symptom Score

INTRODUCTION

Few tools predict survival from pancreatic cancer (PAC). The McGill Brisbane Symptom Score (MBSS) based on symptoms at presentation (weight loss, pain, jaundice and smoking) was recently validated. The present study compares the ability of four strategies to predict 9-month survival: MBSS, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) alone, CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio and a combination of MBSS and the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio.

METHODOLOGY

A retrospective review of 133 patients diagnosed with PAC between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Survival was determined from the Quebec civil registry. Blood CA 19-9 and bilirubin values were collected (n = 52) at the time of diagnosis. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine a cutoff for optimal test characteristics of CA 19-9 and CA19-9-to-total bilirubin ratio in predicting survival at 9 months. Predictive characteristics were then calculated for the four strategies.

RESULTS

Of the four strategies, the one with the greatest negative predictive value was the MBSS: negative predictive value (NPV) was 90.2% (76.9-97.3%) and the positive likelihood ratio (LR) was the greatest. The ability of CA 19-9 levels alone, at baseline, to predict survival was low. For the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio, the test characteristics improved but remained non-significant. The best performing strategy according to likelihood ratios was the combined MBSS and CA19-9 to the bilirubin ratio.

CONCLUSION

CA19-9 levels and the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio are poor predictors of survival for PAC, whereas the MBSS is a far better predictor, confirming its clinical value. By adding the CA19-9-to-bilirubin ratio to the MBSS the predictive characteristics improved.

Artificial neural networks predict survival from pancreatic cancer after radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are nonlinear pattern recognition techniques that can be used as a tool in medical decision making. The objective of this study was to develop an ANN model for predicting survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

METHODS

A flexible nonlinear survival model based on ANNs was designed by using clinical and histopathological data from 84 patients who underwent resection for PDAC.

RESULTS

Seven of 33 potential risk variables were selected to construct the ANN, including lymph node metastasis, differentiation, body mass index, age, resection margin status, peritumoral inflammation, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Three variables (ie, lymph node metastasis, leukocyte count, and tumor location) were significant according to Cox regression analysis. Harrell's concordance index for the ANN model was .79, and for Cox regression it was .67.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, ANNs have been used to successfully predict individual long-term survival for patients after radical surgery for PDAC.