Designing large-scale conservation corridors for pattern and process

Ecological connectivity and in-kind mitigation in a regulatory decision framework: A case study with an amphibian habitat specialist

Ecological connectivity is critical to the survival and long-term viability of populations but is often overlooked in regulatory frameworks. We integrated landscape-level processes into a mitigation strategy for impacts to aquatic resources on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Wetlands on the ORR, which contain significant breeding populations of the imperiled four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) and tubercled rein orchid (Platanthera flava var. herbiola), will be impacted by construction of an environmental waste disposal facility under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). We used a modified Kepner-Tregoe decision analysis to select general mitigation options that balanced regulatory requirements and interest group perspectives. We emphasized habitat connectivity through models that prioritized an area's importance to natural area connectivity (centrality) and maintenance of population structure for an affected habitat specialist (four-toed salamanders). We also emphasized in-kind mitigation through the preservation and enhancement of ecologically similar resources and the translocation and establishment of a new subpopulation of four-toed salamanders elsewhere on the ORR. We ultimately released over 500 juvenile salamanders that originated from the impacted site into the chosen mitigation wetlands. By doing so under the constraints of a time-sensitive CERCLA remediation effort and exceeding its substantive requirements, this work underscores feasibility. Ecological connectivity and the conservation of species that are not afforded explicit regulatory processes can be effectively and efficiently integrated into environmental decision-making and land use planning.

Community perceptions and socio-economic implications of conservation corridors and networks in the Vhembe District, Limpopo, South Africa

Social facets linked to conservation corridors and ecological networks have received relatively limited academic attention. This study explores the perspectives of researchers, NGO representatives, and landowners, as well as the community's ideas of conservation efforts and corridor potential in the Vhembe District, Limpopo, South Africa. Surveys and interviews were conducted with communities, regional stakeholders, and landowners. The findings revealed that the community participants strongly support corridor implementation. The results indicate that this support is driven by the anticipated socio-economic benefits in the form of jobs. However, the employment opportunities might not align with the resident's expectations. The study identifies several challenges to corridor establishment, including infrastructure and financial constraints. Moreover, the findings revealed a lack of supportive legislation and highlighted concerns over protected area's accessibility. The study contributes to the global academic discourse by emphasizing the importance of community engagement before corridor and network implementation. It also addresses the complex trade-offs inherent in such projects, regardless of location. The methodological approach employed in this research transcends its regional context and offers actionable insights applicable worldwide.

Construction of an Ecological Network Based on an Integrated Approach and Circuit Theory: A Case Study of Panzhou in Guizhou Province

Protecting ecological security has become the backbone of social and economic development since declines in ecological quality due to an increase in human dominance over the natural environment. The establishment of ecological networks is an effective, comprehensive spatial regulation means to ensure regional ecological security. Panzhou city, as a case study, is a typical karst county and has been confronted with the pressure of ecological degradation in recent decades. In this study, an integrated approach combining ecological quality (EQ), ecosystem function importance (EFI), and morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) was developed to determine the ecological sources. Ecological corridors, ecological pinch areas, and ecological barriers were extracted using circuit theory to identify the restored and conserved priority areas of ecological security patterns. The results showed that (1) the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and EFI exhibited typical geographical distributions, with the highest values concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the study area and the lowest values scattered in the middle part; (2) 26 patches with forestland, grassland, and waterbodies as the main land cover types were selected as the ecological sources; (3) 63 ecological corridors, composed of 45 key ecological corridors and 18 inactive ecological corridors, were extracted, accounting for 203.12 km and 163.31 km, respectively; (4) 82.76 km2 of pinch areas and 320.29 km2 of barriers were identified, both of which were distributed on key ecological corridors and played different roles in ecological security; and (5) 4 types of ecological security zones were established according to ecological sources, corridors, pinch areas, and barriers. This integrated approach provides a scientific method for the identification and implementation of ecological networks that can contribute to protecting regional ecological security. Our findings can serve as applicable and reasonable guidance to land administrators and policy-makers for adopting suitable territorial spatial planning, urban planning, green cities, etc.

Identifying Connectivity Conservation Priorities among Protected Areas in Qinling-Daba Mountains, China

Mountain biodiversity is under unprecedented threat due to climate change and excessive human activity. Although protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of nature conservation, it is increasingly hard for isolated PAs to maintain the species and ecological processes they depend on in the long term. Linking nature reserves to form a large and connected conservation network is regarded as the optimal measure, but research in this field is lacking in China. We mapped PAs in the Qinling-Daba Mountains in China and identified corridors among PAs and the corridors’ key nodes using a least-cost analysis and circuit theory to model an ecological connectivity conservation network for the region. The results showed that this large ecological network has 46 habitat patches connected by 88 corridors, with 69 pinchpoints, 86 barriers and 37 stepping stones in and around the corridors. In this study, 34.86% of suitable habitats have little or no protection and, in the future, these areas should be developed with caution, with more emphasis on protecting their ecological connectivity. This study used connectivity analysis to construct large ecological corridors based on PAs, providing a framework for connectivity conservation at the biogeographic scale and a scientific reference for further, subsequent conservation actions.

Ecological Security Pattern Construction in Karst Area Based on Ant Algorithm

Constructing the ecological security pattern is imperative to stabilize ecosystem services and sustainable development coordination of the social economy and ecology. This paper focuses on the Karst region in southeastern Yunnan, which is ecologically fragile. This paper selects the main types of ecosystem services and identifies the ecological source using hot spot analysis for Guangnan County. An inclusive consideration of the regional ecologic conditions and the rocky desertification formation mechanism was made. The resistance factor index system was developed to generate the basic resistance surface modified by the ecological sensitivity index. The Ant algorithm and Kernel density analysis were used to determine ecological corridor range and ecological restoration points that constructed the ecological security pattern of Guangnan County. The results demonstrated that, firstly, there were twenty-three sources in Guangnan County, with a total area of 1292.77 km², accounting for 16.74% of the total. The forests were the chief ecological sources distributed in the non-Karst area, where Bamei Town, Yangliujing Township and Nasa Town had the highest distribution. Secondly, the revised resistance value is similar to “Zhe (Zhetu Township)-Lian (Liancheng Town)-Yang (Yangliujing Township)-Ban (Bambang Township)”. The values were lower in the north and higher in the south, which is consistent with the regional distribution of Karst. Thirdly, the constructed ecological security pattern of the “Source-Corridor-Ecological restoration point” paradigm had twenty-three ecological corridors. The chief ecological and potential corridor areas were 804.95 km² and 621.2 km², respectively. There are thirty-eight ecological restoration points mainly distributed in the principal ecological corridors and play a vital role in maintaining the corridor connectivity between sources. The results provide guidance and theoretical basis for the ecological security patterns construction in Karst areas, regional ecologic security protection and sustainable development promotion.

Effects of raster terrain representation on GIS shortest path analysis

Spatial analysis extracts meaning and insights from spatially referenced data, where the results are highly dependent on the quality of the data used and the manipulations on the data when preparing it for analysis. Users should understand the impacts that data representations may have on their results in order to prevent distortions in their outcomes. We study the consequences of two common data preparations when locating a linear feature performing shortest path analysis on raster terrain data: 1) the connectivity of the network generated by connecting raster cells to their neighbors, and 2) the range of the attribute scale for assigning costs. Such analysis is commonly used to locate transmission lines, where the results could have major implications on project cost and its environmental impact. Experiments in solving biobjective shortest paths show that results are highly dependent on the parameters of the data representations, with exceedingly variable results based on the choices made in reclassifying attributes and generating networks from the raster. Based on these outcomes, we outline recommendations for ensuring geographic information system (GIS) data representations maintain analysis results that are accurate and unbiased.

Quantifying Climate-Wise Connectivity across a Topographically Diverse Landscape

Climate-wise connectivity is essential to provide species access to suitable habitats in the future, yet we lack a consistent means of quantifying climate adaptation benefits of habitat linkages. Species range shifts to cooler climates have been widely observed, suggesting we should protect pathways providing access to cooler locations. However, in topographically diverse regions, the effects of elevation, seasonality, and proximity to large water bodies are complex drivers of biologically relevant temperature gradients. Here, we identify potential terrestrial and riparian linkages and their cooling benefit using mid-century summer and winter temperature extremes for interior coastal ranges in Northern California. It is rare for the same area to possess both terrestrial and riparian connectivity value. Our analysis reveals distinct differences in the magnitude and orientation of cooling benefits between the summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures provided by the linkages we delineated for the area. The cooling benefits for both linkage types were maximized to the west during summer, but upslope and to the northeast during winter. The approach we employ here provides an improved method to prioritize climate-wise connectivity and promote landscape resilience for topographically diverse regions.

Spatial influence of ecological networks on land use intensity

Rapid urbanization resulted in widespread urban expansion and the fragmentation and isolation of large-scale ecological sources. Ecological sustainability has propelled the popularity and implementation of intensive land use programs worldwide, in China particularly. In this study, we explored the spatial spillover effect through ecological networks on intensive urban land use and the underlying driving mechanism using the Wuhan urban agglomeration as the case study area. First, we comprehensively measured land use intensity (LUI) from three dimensions: input, output, and landscape aggregation. Second, ecological sources were identified on the basis of land use maps, and ecological networks were constructed using the "minimum cumulative resistance" model. Then, the "gravity model" was applied to measure the spatial interaction among ecological sources and to construct spatial weight matrices for spatial modeling. Lastly, we devised a spatial Durbin model using the designed "ecological" spatial weight matrices to examine the influencing factors and the potential spatial interactions or constraints. The results showed that the average values of LUI in 2017 were almost 70 times higher than that in 2005 and the Jianghan District had the highest increment (91 times) from 2005 to 2017. LUI was primarily driven by socioeconomic development. Gross domestic product and proportion of tertiary sector exerted positive influences, whereas agricultural output value exhibited a negative effect on LUI in 2005 and 2017. A positive spatial autocorrelation of LUI was observed at the county level, and the spatial spillover effect was confirmed through ecological networks during intensive land use, indicating that ecological spatial influence is an important factor in explaining LUI. The findings help in exploring the spatial influence through ecological networks on LUI at the regional level and provide references for formulating relevant policies to achieve the ecological security of terrestrial ecosystems and coordinated and balanced regional sustainable development.

Construction of the Ecological Security Pattern of Urban Agglomeration under the Framework of Supply and Demand of Ecosystem Services Using Bayesian Network Machine Learning: Case Study of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

Coordinating ecosystem service supply and demand equilibrium and utilizing machine learning to dynamically construct an ecological security pattern (ESP) can help better understand the impact of urban development on ecological processes, which can be used as a theoretical reference in coupling economic growth and environmental protection. Here, the ESP of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration was constructed, which made use of the Bayesian network model to dynamically identify the ecological sources. The ecological corridor and ecological strategy points were identified using the minimum cumulative resistance model and circuit theory. The ESP was constructed by combining seven ecological sources, “two horizontal and three vertical” ecological corridors, and 37 ecological strategy points. Our results found spatial decoupling between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) and the degradation in areas with high demand for ES. The ecological sources and ecological corridors of the urban agglomeration were mainly situated in forestlands and water areas. The terrestrial ecological corridor was distributed along the outer periphery of the urban agglomeration, while the aquatic ecological corridor ran from north to south throughout the entire region. The ecological strategic points were mainly concentrated along the boundaries of the built-up area and the intersection between construction land and ecological land. Finally, the ecological sources were found primarily on existing ecological protection zones, which supports the usefulness of machine learning in predicting ecological sources and may provide new insights in developing urban ESP.

Integrating priority areas and ecological corridors into national network for conservation planning in China

Considering that urban expansion and increase of human activities represent important threats to biodiversity and ecological processes in short and long term, developing protected area (PA) network with high connectivity is considered as a valuable conservation strategy. However, conservation planning associated with the large-scale network in China involves important information loopholes about the land cover and landscape connectivity. In this paper, we made an integrative analysis for the identification of conservation priority areas and least-cost ecological corridors (ECs) in order to promote a more representative, connected and efficient ecological PA network for this country. First, we used Zonation, a spatial prioritization software, to achieve a hierarchical mask and selected the top priority conservation areas. Second, we identified optimal linkages between two patches as corridors based on least-cost path algorithm. Finally, we proposed a new framework of China's PA network composed of conservation priority and ECs in consideration of high connectivity between areas. We observed that priority areas identified here cover 12.9% of the region, distributed mainly in mountainous and plateau areas, and only reflect a spatial mismatch of 19% with the current China's nature reserves locations. From the perspective of conservation, our result provide the need to consider new PA categories, specially located in the south (e.g., the middle-lower Yangtze River area, Nanling and Min-Zhe-Gan Mountains) and north regions (e.g., Changbai Mountains), in order to construct an optimal and connected national network in China. This information allows us better opportunities to identify the relative high-quality patches and draft the best conservation plan for the China's biodiversity in the long-term run.

Landscape connectivity among remnant populations of guanaco (Lama guanicoe Müller, 1776) in an arid region of Chile impacted by global change

Connectivity between populations plays a key role in the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. This is of particular concern for biodiversity preservation in drylands, since water limited landscapes are typically characterized by little suitable habitat cover, high habitat fragmentation, harsh matrices, and are being rapidly degraded at a global scale. In this study, we modelled landscape connectivity between 11 guanaco Lama guanicoe populations in Chile’s arid Norte Chico, a region that supports the last remnant coastal populations of this emblematic herbivore indigenous to South America. We produced a habitat suitability model to derive a regional surface resistance map, and used circuit theory to map functional connectivity, investigate the relative isolation between populations, and identify those that contribute most to the patch connectivity network. Predicted suitable habitat for L. guanicoe represented about 25% of the study region (i.e., 29,173 km²) and was heterogeneously distributed along a continuous stretch along the Andes, and discontinuous patches along the coast. As a result, we found that high connectivity current flows in the mid and high Andes formed a wide, continuous connectivity corridor, enabling connectivity between all high Andean populations. Coastal populations, in contrast, were more isolated. These groups demonstrate no inter-population connectivity between themselves, only with higher altitude populations, and for two of them, animal movement was linked to the effectiveness of wildlife crossings along the Pan-American highway. Our results indicate that functional connectivity is an issue of concern for L. guanicoe in Chile’s Norte Chico, implying that future conservation and management plans should emphasize strategies aimed at conserving functional connectivity between coastal and Andean populations, as well as the protection of habitat patches likely to act as stepping stones within the connectivity network.

Landscape-scale conservation design across biotic realms: sequential integration of aquatic and terrestrial landscapes

Systematic conservation planning has been used extensively throughout the world to identify important areas for maintaining biodiversity and functional ecosystems, and is well suited to address large-scale biodiversity conservation challenges of the twenty-first century. Systematic planning is necessary to bridge implementation, scale, and data gaps in a collaborative effort that recognizes competing land uses. Here, we developed a conservation planning process to identify and unify conservation priorities around the central and southern Appalachian Mountains as part of the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (App LCC). Through a participatory framework and sequential, cross-realm integration in spatial optimization modeling we highlight lands and waters that together achieve joint conservation goals from LCC partners for the least cost. This process was driven by a synthesis of 26 multi-scaled conservation targets and optimized for simultaneous representation inside the program Marxan to account for roughly 25% of the LCC geography. We identify five conservation design elements covering critical ecological processes and patterns including interconnected regions as well as the broad landscapes between them. Elements were then subjected to a cumulative threats index for possible prioritization. The evaluation of these elements supports multi-scaled decision making within the LCC planning community through a participatory, dynamic, and iterative process.

Catchments catch all in South African coastal lowlands: topography and palaeoclimate restricted gene flow in Nymania capensis (Meliaceae)-a multilocus phylogeographic and distribution modelling approach

BACKGROUND

This study investigates orbitally-forced range dynamics at a regional scale by exploring the evolutionary history of Nymania capensis (Meliaceae) across the deeply incised landscapes of the subescarpment coastal lowlands of South Africa; a region that is home to three biodiversity hotspots (Succulent Karoo, Fynbos, and Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany hotspots).

METHODS

A range of methods are used including: multilocus phylogeography (chloroplast and high- and low-copy nuclear DNA), molecular dating and species distribution modelling (SDM).

RESULTS

The results support an 'evolutionarily distinct catchment' hypothesis where: (1) different catchments contain genetically distinct lineages, (2) limited genetic structuring was detected within basins whilst high structuring was detected between basins, and (3) within primary catchment populations display a high degree of genealogical lineage sorting. In addition, the results support a glacial refugia hypothesis as: (a) the timing of chloroplast lineage diversification is restricted to the Pleistocene in a landscape that has been relatively unchanged since the late Pliocene, and (b) the projected LGM distribution of suitable climate for N. capensis suggest fragmentation into refugia that correspond to the current phylogeographic populations.

DISCUSSION

This study highlights the interaction of topography and subtle Pleistocene climate variations as drivers limiting both seed and pollen flow along these lowlands. This lends support to the region's large-scale conservation planning efforts, which used catchments as foundational units for conservation as these are likely to be evolutionarily significant units.

Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation

Spatial data characteristics have the potential to influence various aspects of prioritising biodiversity areas for systematic conservation planning. There has been some exploration of the combined effects of size of planning units and level of classification of physical environments on the pattern and extent of priority areas. However, these data characteristics have yet to be explicitly investigated in terms of their interaction with different socioeconomic cost data during the spatial prioritisation process. We quantify the individual and interacting effects of three factors—planning-unit size, thematic resolution of reef classes, and spatial variability of socioeconomic costs—on spatial priorities for marine conservation, in typical marine planning exercises that use reef classification maps as a proxy for biodiversity. We assess these factors by creating 20 unique prioritisation scenarios involving combinations of different levels of each factor. Because output data from these scenarios are analogous to ecological data, we applied ecological statistics to determine spatial similarities between reserve designs. All three factors influenced prioritisations to different extents, with cost variability having the largest influence, followed by planning-unit size and thematic resolution of reef classes. The effect of thematic resolution on spatial design depended on the variability of cost data used. In terms of incidental representation of conservation objectives derived from finer-resolution data, scenarios prioritised with uniform cost outperformed those prioritised with variable cost. Following our analyses, we make recommendations to help maximise the spatial and cost efficiency and potential effectiveness of future marine conservation plans in similar planning scenarios. We recommend that planners: employ the smallest planning-unit size practical; invest in data at the highest possible resolution; and, when planning across regional extents with the intention of incidentally representing fine-resolution features, prioritise the whole region with uniform costs rather than using coarse-resolution data on variable costs.

Bolder science needed now for protected areas

Recognizing that protected areas (PAs) are essential for effective biodiversity conservation action, the Convention on Biological Diversity established ambitious PA targets as part of the 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity. Under the strategic goal to "improve the status of biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems, species, and genetic diversity," Target 11 aims to put 17% of terrestrial and 10% of marine regions under PA status by 2020. Additionally and crucially, these areas are required to be of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative, and well-connected and to include "other effective area-based conservation measures" (OECMs). Whereas the area-based targets are explicit and measurable, the lack of guidance for what constitutes important and representative; effective; and OECMs is affecting how nations are implementing the target. There is a real risk that Target 11 may be achieved in terms of area while failing the overall strategic goal for which it is established because the areas are poorly located, inadequately managed, or based on unjustifiable inclusion of OECMs. We argue that the conservation science community can help establish ecologically sensible PA targets to help prioritize important biodiversity areas and achieve ecological representation; identify clear, comparable performance metrics of ecological effectiveness so progress toward these targets can be assessed; and identify metrics and report on the contribution OECMs make toward the target. By providing ecologically sensible targets and new performance metrics for measuring the effectiveness of both PAs and OECMs, the science community can actively ensure that the achievement of the required area in Target 11 is not simply an end in itself but generates genuine benefits for biodiversity.

Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services

There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distribution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost-effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.

Spatial Bayesian belief networks as a planning decision tool for mapping ecosystem services trade-offs on forested landscapes

An integrated methodology, based on linking Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with GIS, is proposed for combining available evidence to help forest managers evaluate implications and trade-offs between forest production and conservation measures to preserve biodiversity in forested habitats. A Bayesian belief network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents variables and their dependencies through specifying probabilistic relationships. In spatially explicit decision problems where it is difficult to choose appropriate combinations of interventions, the proposed integration of a BBN with GIS helped to facilitate shared understanding of the human-landscape relationships, while fostering collective management that can be incorporated into landscape planning processes. Trades-offs become more and more relevant in these landscape contexts where the participation of many and varied stakeholder groups is indispensable. With these challenges in mind, our integrated approach incorporates GIS-based data with expert knowledge to consider two different land use interests - biodiversity value for conservation and timber production potential - with the focus on a complex mountain landscape in the French Alps. The spatial models produced provided different alternatives of suitable sites that can be used by policy makers in order to support conservation priorities while addressing management options. The approach provided provide a common reasoning language among different experts from different backgrounds while helped to identify spatially explicit conflictive areas.

Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings.

Reserve Design under Climate Change: From Land Facets Back to Ecosystem Representation

Ecosystem distributions are expected to shift as a result of global warming, raising concerns about the long-term utility of reserve systems based on coarse-filter ecosystem representation. We tested the extent to which proportional ecosystem representation targets would be maintained under a changing climate by projecting the distribution of the major ecosystems of Alberta, Canada, into the future using bioclimatic envelope models and then calculating the composition of reserves in successive periods. We used the Marxan conservation planning software to generate the suite of reserve systems for our test, varying the representation target and degree of reserve clumping. Our climate envelope projections for the 2080s indicate that virtually all reserves will, in time, be comprised of different ecosystem types than today. Nevertheless, our proportional targets for ecosystem representation were maintained across all time periods, with only minor exceptions. We hypothesize that this stability in representation arises because ecosystems may be serving as proxies for land facets, the stable abiotic landscape features that delineate major arenas of biological activity. The implication is that accommodating climate change may not require abandoning the conventional ecosystem-based approach to reserve design in favour of a strictly abiotic approach, since the two approaches may be largely synonymous.

Mapping evolutionary process: a multi-taxa approach to conservation prioritization

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.

Spatial overlap between environmental policy instruments and areas of high conservation value in forest

In order to safeguard biodiversity in forest we need to know how forest policy instruments work. Here we use a nationwide network of 9400 plots in productive forest to analyze to what extent large-scale policy instruments, individually and together, target forest of high conservation value in Norway. We studied both instruments working through direct regulation; Strict Protection and Landscape Protection, and instruments working through management planning and voluntary schemes of forest certification; Wilderness Area and Mountain Forest. As forest of high conservation value (HCV-forest) we considered the extent of 12 Biodiversity Habitats and the extent of Old-Age Forest. We found that 22% of productive forest area contained Biodiversity Habitats. More than 70% of this area was not covered by any large-scale instruments. Mountain Forest covered 23%, while Strict Protection and Wilderness both covered 5% of the Biodiversity Habitat area. A total of 9% of productive forest area contained Old-Age Forest, and the relative coverage of the four instruments was similar as for Biodiversity Habitats. For all instruments, except Landscape Protection, the targeted areas contained significantly higher proportions of HCV-forest than areas not targeted by these instruments. Areas targeted by Strict Protection had higher proportions of HCV-forest than areas targeted by other instruments, except for areas targeted by Wilderness Area which showed similar proportions of Biodiversity Habitats. There was a substantial amount of spatial overlap between the policy tools, but no incremental conservation effect of overlapping instruments in terms of contributing to higher percentages of targeted HCV-forest. Our results reveal that although the current policy mix has an above average representation of forest of high conservation value, the targeting efficiency in terms of area overlap is limited. There is a need to improve forest conservation and a potential to cover this need by better targeting high conservation value areas.

Elevated elephant density does not improve ecotourism opportunities: convergence in social and ecological objectives

In order to sustainably conserve biodiversity, many protected areas, particularly private protected areas, must find means of self-financing. Ecotourism is increasingly seen as a mechanism to achieve such financial sustainability. However, there is concern that ecotourism operations are driven to achieve successful game-viewing, influencing the management of charismatic species. An abundance of such species, including the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), has been stocked in protected areas under the assumption that they will increase ecotourism value. At moderate to high densities, the impact of elephants is costly; numerous studies have documented severe changes in biodiversity through the impacts of elephants. Protected areas that focus on maintaining high numbers of elephants may therefore face a conflict between socioeconomic demands and the capacity of ecological systems. We address this conflict by analyzing tourist elephant-sighting records from six private and one statutory protected area, the Addo Elephant National Park (AENP), in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, in relation to elephant numbers. We found no relationship between elephant density and elephant-viewing success. Even though elephant density in the AENP increased over time, a hierarchical partitioning analysis indicated that elephant density was not a driver of tourist numbers. In contrast, annual tourist numbers for the AENP were positively correlated with general tourist numbers recorded for South Africa. Our results indicate that the socioeconomic and ecological requirements of protected areas in terms of tourism and elephants, respectively, converge. Thus, high elephant densities and their associated ecological costs are not required to support ecotourism operations for financial sustainability. Understanding the social and ecological feedbacks that dominate the dynamics of protected areas, particularly within private protected areas, can help to elucidate the management challenges of minimizing ecological trade-offs while meeting ecotourist demands and achieving sustainability.

Estimating landholders' probability of participating in a stewardship program, and the implications for spatial conservation priorities

The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation.