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Freund O, Melloul A, Fried S, Kleinhendler E, Unterman A, Gershman E, Elis A, Bar-Shai A. Management of acute exacerbations of COPD in the emergency department and its associations with clinical variables. Intern Emerg Med 2024:10.1007/s11739-024-03592-w. [PMID: 38602629 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-024-03592-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a common cause for emergency department (ED) visits. Still, large scale studies that assess the management of AECOPD in the ED are limited. Our aim was to evaluate treatment characteristics of AE-COPD in the ED on a national scale. A prospective study as part of the COPD Israeli survey, conducted between 2017 and 2019, in 13 medical centers. Patients hospitalized with AECOPD were included and interviewed. Clinical data related to their ED and hospital stay were collected. 344 patients were included, 38% females, mean age of 70 ± 11 years. Median (IQR) time to first ED treatment was 59 (23-125) minutes and to admission 293 (173-490) minutes. Delayed ED treatment (> 1 h) was associated with older age (p = 0.01) and lack of a coded diagnosis of COPD in hospital records (p = 0.01). Long ED length-of-stay (> 5 h) was linked with longer hospitalizations (p = 0.01). Routine ED care included inhalations of short-acting bronchodilators (246 patients, 72%) and systemic steroids (188 patients, 55%). Receiving routine ED care was associated with its continuation during hospitalization (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, predictors for patients not receiving routine care were obesity (adjusted odds ratio 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8, p = 0.01) and fever (AOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.6, p < 0.01), while oxygen saturation < 91% was an independent predictor for ED routine treatment (AOR 3.6, 95% CI 2.1-6.3, p < 0.01). Our findings highlight gaps in the treatment of AECOPD in the ED on a national scale, with specific predictors for their occurrence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ophir Freund
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel.
- Internal Medicine B, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel.
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
| | - Ariel Melloul
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Sabrina Fried
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Eyal Kleinhendler
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Avraham Unterman
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Evgeni Gershman
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Avishay Elis
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Internal Medicine C, Rabin Medical Center, Kfar Saba, Israel
| | - Amir Bar-Shai
- The Institute of Pulmonary Medicine, Tel-Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Pai DR, Rajan B, Jairath P, Rosito SM. Predicting hospital admission from emergency department triage data for patients presenting with fall-related fractures. Intern Emerg Med 2023; 18:219-227. [PMID: 36136289 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-022-03100-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2021] [Accepted: 09/05/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Predict in advance the need for hospitalization of adult patients for fall-related fractures based on information available at the time of triage to help decision-making at the emergency department (ED). METHODS We developed machine learning models using routinely collected triage data at a regional hospital chain in Pennsylvania to predict admission to an inpatient unit. We considered all patients presenting to the ED for fall-related fractures. Patients who were 18 years or younger, who left the ED against medical advice, left the ED waiting room without being seen by a provider, and left the ED after initial diagnostics were excluded from the analysis. We compared models obtained using triage data (pre-model) with models developed using additional data obtained after physicians' diagnoses (post-model). RESULTS Our results show good discriminatory power on predicting hospital admissions. Neural network models performed the best (AUC: pre-model = 0.938 [CI 0.920-0.956], post-model = 0.983 [0.974-0.992]). The logistic regression analysis provides additional insights into the data and the relationships between the variables. CONCLUSIONS Using limited data available at the time of triage, we developed four machine learning models aimed at predicting hospitalization for patients presenting to the ED for fall-related fractures. All the four models were robust and performed well. Neural network method, however, performed the best for both pre- and post-models. Simple, parsimonious machine learning models can provide high accuracy for predicting hospital admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dinesh R Pai
- School of Business Administration, Penn State Harrisburg, 777 West Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA, 17057, USA
| | - Balaraman Rajan
- Department of Management, College of Business and Economics, California State University East Bay, VBT 326, 25800 Carlos Bee Blvd, Hayward, CA, 94542, USA.
| | - Puneet Jairath
- Department of Pediatrics, Office of Newborn Medicine, WellSpan Health, York Hospital, 1001 S George St, York, PA, 17403, USA
| | - Stephen M Rosito
- School of Public Affairs, Penn State Harrisburg, 777 West Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA, 17057, USA
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Associated factors, assessment, management, and outcomes of patients who present to the emergency department for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A scoping review. Respir Med 2022; 193:106747. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rmed.2022.106747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2021] [Revised: 01/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
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Evaluation of Hospital Admission Status for Emergency Department Patients Seen for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Retrospective Observational Study. Ochsner J 2021; 21:19-24. [PMID: 33828422 PMCID: PMC7993420 DOI: 10.31486/toj.19.0121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common and preventable condition. The disease accounts for a large economic burden in the US health care system. Better control and prevention of COPD exacerbations can help prevent presentations to already-crowded emergency departments (EDs) and hospitals. The objective of our study was to identify variables associated with hospital admission status in ED patients presenting with COPD exacerbation. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients seen at 1 of 3 US EDs from 2012 to 2014 with a primary diagnosis related to COPD exacerbation. Hospital admission status was modeled using patient characteristic data via adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. Study results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% CIs. Planned post hoc model dependency and external data sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The study sample included 1,165 unique patients with COPD with an ED encounter related to exacerbation at 1 of the 3 reviewed hospitals. Approximately half of these patients had a hospital admission. Variables inversely associated with an admission included oxygen saturation and number of prior ED encounters for COPD exacerbation. Variables positively associated with admission were initial ED heart rate, patient age, and documented comorbidities of anxiety and/or depression. These mental health comorbidities had the strongest association with admission status. Conclusion: Understanding the characteristics of admitted patients may help direct resources and outpatient services to prevent encounters. Of note, the study revealed mental health variables as being strongly associated with admission status.
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Sengupta R, Loftus TM, Doers M, Jandarov RA, Phillips M, Ko J, Panos RJ, Zafar MA. Resting Borg score as a predictor of safe discharge of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the emergency department observation unit. Acad Emerg Med 2020; 27:1302-1311. [PMID: 32678934 DOI: 10.1111/acem.14091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2019] [Revised: 06/26/2020] [Accepted: 07/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations (eCOPD) can be life-threatening and costly. Emergency department (ED) observation units (ED-Obs) offer short-term care to safely reduce preventable hospitalizations. Accurately identifying eCOPD patients who can be discharged safely will improve outcomes. OBJECTIVES The objective were to: I) evaluate utility of conventional clinical variables as predictors of safe discharge and II) assess utility of serial resting Borg score and novel Dyspnea Assessment Score (DAS) for identifying eCOPD patients who can be safely discharged from ED-Obs. METHODS This study was carried out in a 680-bed tertiary, academic hospital with >700 annual eCOPD ED encounters and a 16-bed ED-Obs. A two-phase study of eCOPD patients admitted to ED-Obs was performed. Objective I was a retrospective study including all eCOPD admits from April 2016 to May 2017. Predictor variables (demographics, COPD severity, comorbid conditions, exacerbation severity, clinical care in ED) and outcome variables (ED-Obs disposition, ED revisits) were obtained through electronic medical records. Safe discharge was defined as home disposition from ED-Obs without 7-day revisit. A stepwise regression was performed for predictors of safe discharge. Objective II was a prospective observation study for change in every 4-hour serial resting Borg score and DAS as identifiers of safe discharge. Comparative and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS In Objective I, 171 patients with age, FEV1 %, and body mass index of 59.8 (±9.5) years, 35 (±24)%, and 28.8 (±8) m2 /kg were included. After ED-Obs treatment 78 (45.6%) were hospitalized and 93 (54.4%) were discharged home, of whom 11 (6.4%) had 7-day ED revisit. Safe discharge occurred in 82 (48%). None of the predictor variables correlated with safe discharge. In Objective II, of 38 patients included, 20 (52.6%) had safe discharge. Among others, 16 (42%) were hospitalized and two (5.2%) had 7-day ED revisit. The admission Borg scores and DASs were similar in both groups. The predisposition Borg score was significantly lower in patients with safe discharge (2.75 vs. 5.28, p < 0.001) and had the highest area under curve on ROC (0.77) for safe discharge. DAS was not significantly different between groups. CONCLUSIONS Routine clinical variables do not identify eCOPD patients who can be safely discharged from ED-Obs. Change in resting Borg score during the course of ED-Obs treatment safely identifies patients for discharge. Prospective, external validation is needed to incorporate serial Borg scores in ED-Obs disposition decision for improved safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruchira Sengupta
- From the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Department of Internal Medicine University of Cincinnati College of Medicine CincinnatiOHUSA
| | - Timothy M. Loftus
- the Department of Emergency Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago ILUSA
| | - Matthew Doers
- From the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Department of Internal Medicine University of Cincinnati College of Medicine CincinnatiOHUSA
| | - Roman A. Jandarov
- and the Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Department of Environmental Health University of Cincinnati College of Medicine CincinnatiOHUSA
| | - Michael Phillips
- and the Department of Respiratory Therapy University of Cincinnati Medical Center Cincinnati OHUSA
| | - Jonathan Ko
- and the Department of Respiratory Therapy University of Cincinnati Medical Center Cincinnati OHUSA
| | - Ralph J. Panos
- From the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Department of Internal Medicine University of Cincinnati College of Medicine CincinnatiOHUSA
- and the Department of Medicine Veterans Affairs Medical Center Cincinnati OHUSA
| | - Muhammad A. Zafar
- From the Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Department of Internal Medicine University of Cincinnati College of Medicine CincinnatiOHUSA
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Sorge R, DeBlieux P. Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Primer for Emergency Physicians. J Emerg Med 2020; 59:643-659. [PMID: 32917442 DOI: 10.1016/j.jemermed.2020.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2020] [Revised: 06/24/2020] [Accepted: 07/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) impose a significant burden on patients and the emergency health care system. Patients with COPD who present to the emergency department (ED) often have comorbidities that can complicate their management. OBJECTIVE To discuss strategies for the management of acute exacerbations in the ED, from initial assessment through disposition, to enable effective patient care and minimize the risk of treatment failure and prevent hospital readmissions. DISCUSSION Establishing a correct diagnosis early on is critical; therefore, initial evaluations should be aimed at differentiating COPD exacerbations from other life-threatening conditions. Disposition decisions are based on the intensity of symptoms, presence of comorbidities, severity of the disease, and response to therapy. Patients who are appropriate for discharge from the ED should be prescribed evidence-based treatments and smoking cessation to prevent disease progression. A patient-centric discharge care plan should include medication reconciliation; bedside "teach-back," wherein patients demonstrate proper inhaler usage; and prompt follow-up. CONCLUSIONS An effective assessment, accurate diagnosis, and appropriate discharge plan for patients with AECOPD could improve treatment outcomes, reduce hospitalization, and decrease unplanned repeat visits to the ED.
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Affiliation(s)
- Randy Sorge
- Department of Medicine, Section of Emergency Medicine, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, University Medical Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Peter DeBlieux
- Department of Medicine, Section of Emergency Medicine, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, University Medical Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
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Kocak AO, Cakir Z, Akbas I, Gur STA, Kose MZ, Can NO, Sengun E, Gemis OF. Comparison of two scores of short term serious outcome in COPD patients. Am J Emerg Med 2020; 38:1086-1091. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2019.158376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2019] [Revised: 07/24/2019] [Accepted: 07/26/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
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Stiell IG, Perry JJ, Clement CM, Brison RJ, Rowe BH, Aaron SD, McRae AD, Borgundvaag B, Calder LA, Forster AJ, Brinkhurst J, Wells GA. Clinical validation of a risk scale for serious outcomes among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease managed in the emergency department. CMAJ 2019; 190:E1406-E1413. [PMID: 30510045 DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.180232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Ottawa chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Risk Scale (OCRS), which consists of 10 criteria, was previously derived to identify patients in the emergency department with COPD who were at high risk for short-term serious outcomes. We sought to validate, prospectively and explicitly, the OCRS when applied by physicians in the emergency department. METHODS We conducted this prospective cohort study involving patients in the emergency departments at 6 tertiary care hospitals and enrolled adults with acute exacerbation of COPD from May 2011 to December 2013. Physicians evaluated patients for the OCRS criteria, which were recorded on a data form along with the total risk score. We followed patients for 30 days and the primary outcome, short-term serious outcomes, was defined as any of death, admission to monitored unit, intubation, noninvasive ventilation, myocardial infarction (MI) or relapse with hospital admission. RESULTS We enrolled 1415 patients with a mean age of 70.6 (SD 10.6) years and 50.2% were female. Short-term serious outcomes occurred in 135 (9.5%) cases. Incidence of short-term serious outcomes ranged from 4.6% for a total score of 0 to 100% for a score of 10. Compared with current practice, an OCRS score threshold of greater than 1 would increase sensitivity for short-term serious outcomes from 51.9% to 79.3% and increase admissions from 45.0% to 56.6%. A threshold of greater than 2 would improve sensitivity to 71.9% with 47.9% of patients being admitted. INTERPRETATION In this clinical validation of a risk-stratification tool for COPD in the emergency department, we found that OCRS showed better sensitivity for short-term serious outcomes compared with current practice. This risk scale can now be used to help emergency department disposition decisions for patients with COPD, which should lead to a decrease in unnecessary admissions and in unsafe discharges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian G Stiell
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta.
| | - Jeffrey J Perry
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Catherine M Clement
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Robert J Brison
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Brian H Rowe
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Shawn D Aaron
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Andrew D McRae
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Bjug Borgundvaag
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Lisa A Calder
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Alan J Forster
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - Jennifer Brinkhurst
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
| | - George A Wells
- Departments of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Calder, Perry) and Medicine (Aaron, Forster), Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute (Stiell, Perry, Clement, Aaron, Forster, Brinkhurst), University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Family and Community Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Kingston Health Sciences Centre, Kingston, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (McRae), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Alberta, and Alberta Health Services (Rowe), Edmonton, Alta
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Bottle A, Honeyford K, Chowdhury F, Bell D, Aylin P. Factors associated with hospital emergency readmission and mortality rates in patients with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a national observational study. HEALTH SERVICES AND DELIVERY RESEARCH 2018. [PMID: 30044581 DOI: 10.3310/hsdr06260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BackgroundHeart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lead to unplanned hospital activity, but our understanding of what drives this is incomplete.ObjectivesTo model patient, primary care and hospital factors associated with readmission and mortality for patients with HF and COPD, to assess the statistical performance of post-discharge emergency department (ED) attendance compared with readmission metrics and to compare all the results for the two conditions.DesignObservational study.SettingEnglish NHS.ParticipantsAll patients admitted to acute non-specialist hospitals as an emergency for HF or COPD.InterventionsNone.Main outcome measuresOne-year mortality and 30-day emergency readmission following the patient’s first unplanned admission (‘index admission’) for HF or COPD.Data sourcesPatient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics were combined with publicly available practice- and hospital-level data on performance, patient and staff experience and rehabilitation programme website information.ResultsOne-year mortality rates were 39.6% for HF and 24.1% for COPD and 30-day readmission rates were 19.8% for HF and 16.5% for COPD. Most patients were elderly with multiple comorbidities. Patient factors predicting mortality included older age, male sex, white ethnicity, prior missed outpatient appointments, (long) index length of hospital stay (LOS) and several comorbidities. Older age, missed appointments, (short) LOS and comorbidities also predicted readmission. Of the practice and hospital factors we considered, only more doctors per 10 beds [odds ratio (OR) 0.95 per doctor;p < 0.001] was significant for both cohorts for mortality, with staff recommending to friends and family (OR 0.80 per unit increase;p < 0.001) and number of general practitioners (GPs) per 1000 patients (OR 0.89 per extra GP;p = 0.004) important for COPD. For readmission, only hospital size [OR per 100 beds = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34 to 3.48 for HF, and 2.27, 95% CI 1.40 to 3.66 for COPD] and doctors per 10 beds (OR 0.98;p < 0.001) were significantly associated. Some factors, such as comorbidities, varied in importance depending on the readmission diagnosis. ED visits were common after the index discharge, with 75% resulting in admission. Many predictors of admission at this visit were as for readmission minus comorbidities and plus attendance outside the day shift and numbers of admissions that hour. Hospital-level rates for ED attendance varied much more than those for readmission, but the omega statistics favoured them as a performance indicator.LimitationsData lacked direct information on disease severity and ED attendance reasons; NHS surveys were not specific to HF or COPD patients; and some data sets were aggregated.ConclusionsFollowing an index admission for HF or COPD, older age, prior missed outpatient appointments, LOS and many comorbidities predict both mortality and readmission. Of the aggregated practice and hospital information, only doctors per bed and numbers of hospital beds were strongly associated with either outcome (both negatively). The 30-day ED visits and diagnosis-specific readmission rates seem to be useful performance indicators.Future workHospital variations in ED visits could be investigated using existing data despite coding limitations. Primary care management could be explored using individual-level linked databases.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Bottle
- Dr Foster Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kate Honeyford
- Dr Foster Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Faiza Chowdhury
- Department of Acute Medicine, Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, Imperial College London, London, UK
- National Institute for Health Research under the Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Programme North West London, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Derek Bell
- Department of Acute Medicine, Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, Imperial College London, London, UK
- National Institute for Health Research under the Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Programme North West London, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Royal College of Physicians, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Paul Aylin
- Dr Foster Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Bartels W, Adamson S, Leung L, Sin DD, van Eeden SF. Emergency department management of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: factors predicting readmission. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2018; 13:1647-1654. [PMID: 29872284 PMCID: PMC5973381 DOI: 10.2147/copd.s163250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Rationale Readmissions are common following acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and are partially responsible for increased morbidity and mortality in COPD. Numerous factors have been shown to predict readmission of patients previously admitted to hospital for AECOPD; however, factors related to readmission in patients who are triaged in emergency departments (EDs) and sent directly home are poorly understood. We postulate that patients seen in the ED for AECOPD and directly sent home have a high readmission rate, and we suspect that inadequate management and follow-up contribute to this high readmission rate. Methods We conducted a 1-year retrospective study of all patients seen in the ED for AECOPD at an inner-city tertiary care hospital; 30- and 90-day readmission rates for COPD and all-cause admissions to the ED and hospital were determined. Patients discharged directly home from the ED were compared with those admitted to hospital for management. Patient, treatment, and system variables that could potentially impact readmission were documented. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to determine which factors predicted readmissions. Results The readmission rates in the ED group (n=240) were significantly higher than that in the hospitalized group (n=271): 1) the 90-day ED readmissions (1.29 vs 0.51, p<0.0001) and 30-day ED readmissions (0.54 vs 0.20, p<0.0001) (ED vs hospitalized groups) were significantly higher in the ED group; 2) the time to first readmission was significantly shorter in the ED group than in the hospitalized group (24.1±22 vs 31.8±27.8 days; p<0.05). Cardiovascular comorbidities (p<0.00001), substance abuse disorder (p<0.001), and mental illness (p<0.001) were the strongest predictors of readmission in the ED group. Age (p<0.01), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (p<0.001), and cardiovascular comorbidities (p<0.05) were the best predictors for both 30- and 90-day COPD readmission rates in the ED group. Only 50% of the ED group patients received bronchodilators, oral steroids, and antibiotics inclusively, and only 68% were referred for community follow-up. The need for oral steroids to treat AECOPD predicted future 90-day COPD readmissions in the ED group (p<0.003). Conclusion Patients discharged directly home from EDs have a significantly higher risk of readmission to EDs than those who are hospitalized. One possible reason for this is that COPD management is variable in EDs with <50% receiving appropriate therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wiebke Bartels
- Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Simon Adamson
- Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Lisa Leung
- Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Don D Sin
- Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Stephan F van Eeden
- Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Kraaijvanger N, Rijpsma D, Roovers L, van Leeuwen H, Kaasjager K, van den Brand L, Horstink L, Edwards M. Development and validation of an admission prediction tool for emergency departments in the Netherlands. Emerg Med J 2018; 35:464-470. [DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2017-206673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2017] [Revised: 02/22/2018] [Accepted: 03/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
ObjectiveEarly prediction of admission has the potential to reduce length of stay in the ED. The aim of this study is to create a computerised tool to predict admission probability.MethodsThe prediction rule was derived from data on all patients who visited the ED of the Rijnstate Hospital over two random weeks. Performing a multivariate logistic regression analysis factors associated with hospitalisation were explored. Using these data, a model was developed to predict admission probability. Prospective validation was performed at Rijnstate Hospital and in two regional hospitals with different baseline admission rates. The model was converted into a computerised tool that reported the admission probability for any patient at the time of triage.ResultsData from 1261 visits were included in the derivation of the rule. Four contributing factors for admission that could be determined at triage were identified: age, triage category, arrival mode and main symptom. Prospective validation showed that this model reliably predicts hospital admission in two community hospitals (area under the curve (AUC) 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) and in an academic hospital (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.80). In the community hospitals, using a cut-off of 80% for admission probability resulted in the highest number of true positives (actual admissions) with the greatest specificity (positive predictive value (PPV): 89.6, 95% CI 84.5 to 93.6; negative predictive value (NPV): 70.3, 95% CI 67.6 to 72.9). For the academic hospital, with a higher admission rate, a 90% probability was a better cut-off (PPV: 83.0, 95% CI 73.8 to 90.0; NPV: 59.3, 95% CI 54.2 to 64.2).ConclusionAdmission probability for ED patients can be calculated using a prediction tool. Further research must show whether using this tool can improve patient flow in the ED.
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12
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Berne G, Léveiller G. [Criteria for hospital admission during acute COPD exacerbations]. Rev Mal Respir 2017; 34:359-368. [PMID: 28476418 DOI: 10.1016/j.rmr.2017.03.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- G Berne
- Service d'accueil et d'urgence, centre hospitalier Yves-Le-Foll, 10, rue Marcel-Proust, 22000 Saint-Brieuc, France.
| | - G Léveiller
- Service de pneumologie, centre hospitalier Yves-Le-Foll, 10, rue Marcel-Proust, 22000 Saint-Brieuc, France
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Santibáñez M, Garrastazu R, Ruiz-Nuñez M, Helguera JM, Arenal S, Bonnardeux C, León C, García-Rivero JL. Predictors of Hospitalized Exacerbations and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0158727. [PMID: 27362765 PMCID: PMC4928940 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2015] [Accepted: 06/21/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) carry significant consequences for patients and are responsible for considerable health-care costs-particularly if hospitalization is required. Despite the importance of hospitalized exacerbations, relatively little is known about their determinants. This study aimed to analyze predictors of hospitalized exacerbations and mortality in COPD patients. METHODS This was a retrospective population-based cohort study. We selected 900 patients with confirmed COPD aged ≥35 years by simple random sampling among all COPD patients in Cantabria (northern Spain) on December 31, 2011. We defined moderate exacerbations as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids and severe exacerbations as exacerbations requiring hospital admission. We observed exacerbation frequency over the previous year (2011) and following year (2012). We categorized patients according to COPD severity based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades 1-4). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) by logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, COPD severity, and frequent exacerbator phenotype the previous year. RESULTS Of the patients, 16.4% had ≥1 severe exacerbations, varying from 9.3% in mild GOLD grade 1 to 44% in very severe COPD patients. A history of at least two prior severe exacerbations was positively associated with new severe exacerbations (adjusted OR, 6.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.53-12.83) and mortality (adjusted OR, 7.63; 95%CI, 3.41-17.05). Older age and several comorbidities, such as heart failure and diabetes, were similarly associated. CONCLUSIONS Hospitalized exacerbations occurred with all grades of airflow limitation. A history of severe exacerbations was associated with new hospitalized exacerbations and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Santibáñez
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Area, Universidad de Cantabria-IDIVAL, Santander, Cantabria, Spain
- * E-mail:
| | - Roberto Garrastazu
- Centro de Salud de Gama, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Bárcena de Cicero, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Mario Ruiz-Nuñez
- Centro de Salud de Liérganes, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Miera, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Jose Manuel Helguera
- Centro de Salud Bajo Asón, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Cantabria, Ampuero, Spain
| | - Sandra Arenal
- Centro de Salud de Suances, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Suances, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Cristina Bonnardeux
- Centro de Salud Campoo-Los Valles, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Mataporquera, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Carlos León
- Centro de Salud de Suances, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Suances, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Juan Luis García-Rivero
- Pneumology Department, Hospital de Laredo, Servicio Cántabro de Salud, Laredo, Cantabria, Spain
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Presentations to Emergency Departments for COPD: A Time Series Analysis. Can Respir J 2016; 2016:1382434. [PMID: 27445514 PMCID: PMC4904522 DOI: 10.1155/2016/1382434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2015] [Accepted: 01/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common respiratory condition characterized by progressive dyspnea and acute exacerbations which may result in emergency department (ED) presentations. This study examines monthly rates of presentations to EDs in one Canadian province. Methods. Presentations for COPD made by individuals aged ≥55 years during April 1999 to March 2011 were extracted from provincial databases. Data included age, sex, and health zone of residence (North, Central, South, and urban). Crude rates were calculated. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time series models were developed. Results. ED presentations for COPD totalled 188,824 and the monthly rate of presentation remained relatively stable (from 197.7 to 232.6 per 100,000). Males and seniors (≥65 years) comprised 52.2% and 73.7% of presentations, respectively. The ARIMA(1,0, 0) × (1,0, 1)12 model was appropriate for the overall rate of presentations and for each sex and seniors. Zone specific models showed relatively stable or decreasing rates; the North zone had an increasing trend. Conclusions. ED presentation rates for COPD have been relatively stable in Alberta during the past decade. However, their increases in northern regions deserve further exploration. The SARIMA models quantified the temporal patterns and can help planning future health care service needs.
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Kerkhof M, Freeman D, Jones R, Chisholm A, Price DB. Predicting frequent COPD exacerbations using primary care data. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2015; 10:2439-50. [PMID: 26609229 PMCID: PMC4644169 DOI: 10.2147/copd.s94259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Acute COPD exacerbations account for much of the rising disability and costs associated with COPD, but data on predictive risk factors are limited. The goal of the current study was to develop a robust, clinically based model to predict frequent exacerbation risk. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients identified from the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD) with a diagnostic code for COPD and a forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio <0.7 were included in this historical follow-up study if they were ≥40 years old and had data encompassing the year before (predictor year) and year after (outcome year) study index date. The data set contained potential risk factors including demographic, clinical, and comorbid variables. Following univariable analysis, predictors of two or more exacerbations were fed into a stepwise multivariable logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for subpopulations of patients without any asthma diagnosis ever and those with questionnaire data on symptoms and smoking pack-years. The full predictive model was validated against 1 year of prospective OPCRD data. RESULTS The full data set contained 16,565 patients (53% male, median age 70 years), including 9,393 patients without any recorded asthma and 3,713 patients with questionnaire data. The full model retained eleven variables that significantly predicted two or more exacerbations, of which the number of exacerbations in the preceding year had the strongest association; others included height, age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and several comorbid conditions. Significant predictors not previously identified included eosinophilia and COPD Assessment Test score. The predictive ability of the full model (C statistic 0.751) changed little when applied to the validation data set (n=2,713; C statistic 0.735). Results of the sensitivity analyses supported the main findings. CONCLUSION Patients at risk of exacerbation can be identified from routinely available, computerized primary care data. Further study is needed to validate the model in other patient populations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Rupert Jones
- Plymouth University Peninsula School of Medicine and Dentistry, Plymouth, UK
| | | | - David B Price
- Research in Real-Life, Cambridge, UK ; Academic Primary Care, Division of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
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Make BJ, Eriksson G, Calverley PM, Jenkins CR, Postma DS, Peterson S, Östlund O, Anzueto A. A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX). Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2015; 10:201-9. [PMID: 25670896 PMCID: PMC4315304 DOI: 10.2147/copd.s69589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory properties of predictive variables. Results The best predictors of an exacerbation in the next 6 months were more COPD maintenance medications prior to the trial, higher mean daily reliever use, more exacerbations during the previous year, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio, and female sex. Using these risk variables, we developed a score to predict short-term (6-month) risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX). Budesonide/formoterol reduced future exacerbation risk more than formoterol or as-needed short-acting β2-agonist (salbutamol). Conclusion SCOPEX incorporates easily identifiable patient characteristics and can be readily applied in clinical practice to target therapy to reduce COPD exacerbations in patients at the highest risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry J Make
- Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA
| | - Göran Eriksson
- Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden
| | - Peter M Calverley
- Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK
| | - Christine R Jenkins
- George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Dirkje S Postma
- Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Ollie Östlund
- Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Antonio Anzueto
- Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA
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Stiell IG, Clement CM, Aaron SD, Rowe BH, Perry JJ, Brison RJ, Calder LA, Lang E, Borgundvaag B, Forster AJ, Wells GA. Clinical characteristics associated with adverse events in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prospective cohort study. CMAJ 2014; 186:E193-204. [PMID: 24549125 PMCID: PMC3971051 DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.130968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To assist physicians with difficult decisions about hospital admission for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) presenting in the emergency department, we sought to identify clinical characteristics associated with serious adverse events. METHODS We conducted this prospective cohort study in 6 large Canadian academic emergency departments. Patients were assessed for standardized clinical variables and then followed for serious adverse events, defined as death, intubation, admission to a monitored unit or new visit to the emergency department requiring admission. RESULTS We enrolled 945 patients, of whom 354 (37.5%) were admitted to hospital. Of 74 (7.8%) patients with a subsequent serious adverse event, 36 (49%) had not been admitted after the initial emergency visit. Multivariable modelling identified 5 variables that were independently associated with adverse events: prior intubation, initial heart rate ≥ 110/minute, being too ill to do a walk test, hemoglobin < 100 g/L and urea ≥ 12 mmol/L. A preliminary risk scale incorporating these and 5 other clinical variables produced risk categories ranging from 2.2% for a score of 0 to 91.4% for a score of 10. Using a risk score of 2 or higher as a threshold for admission would capture all patients with a predicted risk of adverse events of 7.2% or higher, while only slightly increasing admission rates, from 37.5% to 43.2%. INTERPRETATION In Canada, many patients with COPD suffer a serious adverse event or death after being discharged home from the emergency department. We identified high-risk characteristics and developed a preliminary risk scale that, once validated, could be used to stratify the likelihood of poor outcomes and to enable rational and safe admission decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian G. Stiell
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Catherine M. Clement
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Shawn D. Aaron
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Brian H. Rowe
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Jeffrey J. Perry
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Robert J. Brison
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Lisa A. Calder
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Eddy Lang
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Bjug Borgundvaag
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Alan J. Forster
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - George A. Wells
- Department of Emergency Medicine (Stiell, Perry, Calder), Department of Medicine (Aaron, Forster) and University of Ottawa Heart Institute (Wells), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Clement), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Rowe), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Brison), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Lang), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Borgundvaag), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
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Risk Stratification of Patients with AECOPD. CURRENT EMERGENCY AND HOSPITAL MEDICINE REPORTS 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s40138-013-0024-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Hospitalizations and return visits after chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ED visits. Am J Emerg Med 2013; 31:1393-6. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2013.06.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2013] [Revised: 06/17/2013] [Accepted: 06/18/2013] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
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A post hoc pooled analysis of exacerbations among US participants in randomized controlled trials of tiotropium. Respir Med 2013; 107:1912-22. [PMID: 23969305 DOI: 10.1016/j.rmed.2013.07.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2013] [Revised: 07/12/2013] [Accepted: 07/15/2013] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exacerbations are a defining outcome of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We evaluated the effect of tiotropium on COPD exacerbations and related hospitalizations among patients from the USA enrolled in clinical trials. METHODS Data were pooled from six randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (6 to ≥ 12 months' duration) of tiotropium in patients with COPD. Exacerbations were defined retrospectively as an increase in or new onset of >1 respiratory symptom lasting for ≥ 3 days and requiring treatment with systemic corticosteroids and/or antibiotics. Time to first exacerbation or hospitalization and exacerbation rates were analyzed at 6 months, and at 1 year for studies ≥ 1 year. RESULTS In total, 4355 patients (tiotropium, 2268, placebo, 2087; mean age 66.5 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] 1.03 L [35.5% predicted]) were analyzed at 6 months and 2455 at 1 year (tiotropium 1317, placebo 1138; mean age 65.5 years; FEV1 1.03 L [37.0% predicted]). Tiotropium delayed time to first exacerbation or first hospitalized exacerbation at 6 months (hazard ratios [HRs], 0.80, 0.65, respectively; p < 0.001 vs placebo) and 1 year (HRs, 0.73 and 0.55; p < 0.001 vs placebo) and reduced exacerbation rates and hospitalization rates (6 months: HRs, 0.79, 0.64; 1 year: HRs, 0.78, 0.56, respectively; all p < 0.01 vs placebo). Tiotropium significantly reduced exacerbations, irrespective of inhaled corticosteroid use at baseline. Tiotropium was not associated with an increased risk of cardiac-related events. CONCLUSIONS Tiotropium significantly reduced the risk and rates of exacerbations and hospitalizations among US patients with COPD.
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Shorr AF, Sun X, Johannes RS, Derby KG, Tabak YP. Predicting the need for mechanical ventilation in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Comparing the CURB-65 and BAP-65 scores. J Crit Care 2012; 27:564-70. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrc.2012.02.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2011] [Revised: 02/19/2012] [Accepted: 02/26/2012] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Almagro P, Cabrera FJ, Diez J, Boixeda R, Alonso Ortiz MB, Murio C, Soriano JB. Comorbidities and Short-term Prognosis in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Exacerbation of COPD. Chest 2012; 142:1126-1133. [DOI: 10.1378/chest.11-2413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 163] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
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Rowe BH, Bhutani M, Stickland MK, Cydulka R. Assessment and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the emergency department and beyond. Expert Rev Respir Med 2011; 5:549-59. [PMID: 21859274 DOI: 10.1586/ers.11.43] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) are common, can result in emergency department presentation and often result in hospitalization. After confirming the diagnosis and treating comorbidities, management of severe AECOPD includes bronchodilators, systemic corticosteroids, antibiotics, noninvasive ventilation and, occasionally, endotracheal intubation. Once discharged, delayed follow-up and suboptimal management often occurs. Antibiotics, systemic corticosteroids and optimization of nonpharmacological interventions (e.g., smoking cessation, immunization and pulmonary rehabilitation) are important discharge considerations. Improving linkages to primary providers who adhere to management involving a pharmacological and nonpharmacological evidence-based treatment plan is critical to preventing future AECOPDs, reducing healthcare utilization and maintaining the quality of life of patients following an AECOPD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian H Rowe
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
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Early predictors of hospital admission in emergency department patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1016/j.aenj.2011.05.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Current World Literature. Curr Opin Pulm Med 2010; 16:162-7. [DOI: 10.1097/mcp.0b013e32833723f8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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