Age Estimation from the Human Os Coxa: A Test on a Documented Italian Collection*

Applicability of the Suchey-Brooks method for age estimation in an Indian population: A computed tomography-based exploration using Bayesian analysis and machine learning

Age estimation occupies a prominent niche in the identification process. In cases where skeletal remains present for examination, age is often estimated from markers distributed throughout the skeletal framework. Within the pelvis, the pubic symphysis constitutes one of the more commonly utilized skeletal markers for age estimation, with the Suchey-Brooks method comprising one of the more commonly employed methods for pubic symphyseal age estimation. The present study was targeted towards assessing the applicability of the Suchey-Brooks method for pubic symphyseal age estimation, an aspect largely unreported for an Indian population. In order to do so, clinically undertaken pelvic computed tomography scans of individuals were evaluated using the Suchey-Brooks method, and the error associated with the method was established using Bayesian analysis and different machine learning regression models. Amongst different supervised machine learning models, support vector regression and random forest furnished lowest error computations in both sexes. Using both Bayesian analysis and machine learning, lower error computations were observed in females, suggesting that the method demonstrates greater applicability for this sex. Inaccuracy and root mean square error obtained with Bayesian analysis and machine learning illustrates that both statistical modalities furnish comparable error computations for pubic symphyseal age estimation using the Suchey-Brooks method. However, given the numerous advantages associated with machine learning, it is recommended to use the same within medicolegal settings. Error computations obtained with the Suchey-Brooks method, regardless of the statistical modality utilized, indicate that the method should be used in amalgamation with additional markers to garner accurate estimates of age.

Prevalence and distribution of ossification of the ligamenta flava in a 16th-18th century skeletal population sample from Poland

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the prevalence of the ossification of the ligamenta flava (OLF) among skeletal remains from Poland.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

124 skeletons aged 25 years and older were analyzed. The presence and size of OLF were observed macroscopically. OLF was recorded at the cranial and caudal attachment sites of each vertebra. The following factors were analyzed: age at death, sex, and presence of other spondyloarthropathies.

RESULTS

The crude prevalence of OLF in the analyzed series was 68.55 %. OLF was located most frequently in the lower thoracic spine. A statistically significant relationship was observed between the presence of OLF and age at death. OLF coincided with degenerative spondyloarthropathies of the thoracolumbar spine.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that OLF was not a rare condition in past populations of European ancestry. Analysis of OLF prevalence in skeletal materials can contribute to reconstruction of the conditions and lifestyles of past people.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study shed new light on the prevalence of OLF and provides information on the variability of OLF in past European populations. The evaluation of the prevalence of OLF represents an important contribution to the field of paleopathology in understanding disease changes in prehistoric and historic human populations.

LIMITATIONS

The analyzed material came from unknown populations without demographic data. Sex and age at death were assessed using standard anthropological methods.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

It is important to understand the influence of sociocultural factors and physical activity patterns on the development of OLF.

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age-at-death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half-century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human-disease interaction, among other topics.

The computational age-at-death estimation from 3D surface models of the adult pubic symphysis using data mining methods

Age-at-death estimation of adult skeletal remains is a key part of biological profile estimation, yet it remains problematic for several reasons. One of them may be the subjective nature of the evaluation of age-related changes, or the fact that the human eye is unable to detect all the relevant surface changes. We have several aims: (1) to validate already existing computer models for age estimation; (2) to propose our own expert system based on computational approaches to eliminate the factor of subjectivity and to use the full potential of surface changes on an articulation area; and (3) to determine what age range the pubic symphysis is useful for age estimation. A sample of 483 3D representations of the pubic symphyseal surfaces from the ossa coxae of adult individuals coming from four European (two from Portugal, one from Switzerland and Greece) and one Asian (Thailand) identified skeletal collections was used. A validation of published algorithms showed very high error in our dataset-the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) ranged from 16.2 and 25.1 years. Two completely new approaches were proposed in this paper: SASS (Simple Automated Symphyseal Surface-based) and AANNESS (Advanced Automated Neural Network-grounded Extended Symphyseal Surface-based), whose MAE values are 11.7 and 10.6 years, respectively. Lastly, it was demonstrated that our models could estimate the age-at-death using the pubic symphysis over the entire adult age range. The proposed models offer objective age estimates with low estimation error (compared to traditional visual methods) and are able to estimate age using the pubic symphysis across the entire adult age range.

The accuracy and reliability of the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis age estimation method: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Suchey-Brooks method has been studied many times with varying reports of accuracy and reliability. A systematic review and meta-analyses were utilized to quantitatively determine the accuracy and reliability of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method. A systematic search of PubMed and EBSCO health and medical databases was performed. Meta-analyses were performed to quantify the relationship between actual known age at death and the S-B method using Spearman's Rho and Pearson's r for (1) combined males and females estimates, (2) male-only estimates, and (3) female-only estimates. Overall correlation coefficient using Cohen's kappa, Spearman's Rho, and Pearson's r was also calculated to determine the interrater and intrarater reliability using the S-B method. Eighteen studies classified as moderate-to-high methodological quality met the inclusion criteria. The sample sizes were different for the combined male and female (n = 2620), male-only (n = 2602), and female-only (n = 1431) meta-analyses. The effect size of the age at death meta-analyses was large and significant for combined males and females (Spearman's Rho = 0.62; Pearson's r = 0.65), male-only (Spearman's Rho = 0.77; Pearson's r = 0.75), and female-only (Spearman's Rho = 0.71; Pearson's r = 0.71). The overall correlation coefficients of the interrater (Kappa = 0.76; Spearman's Rho = 0.73; Pearson's r = 0.80) and intrarater (Kappa = 0.81; Spearman's Rho = 0.91; Pearson's r = 0.83) reliability meta-analyses were large and significant. A significant degree of heterogeneity was present in all meta-analyses, with minimal evidence of publication bias. The meta-analyses results suggest the S-B method is highly reliable with a moderate-to-high degree of accuracy. Our results also identified sample size and accuracy differences between male and female individuals.

Computed tomographic age estimation from the pubic symphysis using the Suchey-Brooks method: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Forensic age estimation is routinely applied in investigations involving identification of individuals. Over the past century a myriad of methods have been devised for age estimation. One such method, proposed by Suchey and Brooks in 1990, groups the observed changes occurring in the pubic symphysis into six phases, each defined by a corresponding age range. The present study was piloted with the focussed question being to empirically determine the accuracy of the Suchey-Brooks method in computed tomographic age estimation by analysing morphological changes occurring in the pubic symphysis. Original articles pertaining to the use of the Suchey-Brooks method for CT based age estimation were extracted from four different databases- PubMed, CENTRAL, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect. Research papers which were answering the focussed question were selected for data analysis. After assessing the risk of bias of the selected articles, the data was subjected to Meta-analysis. Pooled analysis of correctly/accurately aged individuals/remains using the random and fixed effect models yielded a prediction percentage of 78% and 86%, respectively. Higher percentages were obtained for phase-wise and subgroup analysis, indicating that the Suchey-Brooks method is a reliable method for age estimation.

Application and analysis of the Rissech acetabular adult aging method in a Colombian sample

The classical age indicators of the innominate have been the pubic symphysis and auricular surface. However, recently, the acetabulum has been highlighted as an indicator of adult age, with applicability in young, middle-aged, and older adults. The Rissech acetabular method was developed in a Portuguese population and tested in European and European-Americans, giving estimates within 10 years of age in more than 89% of the sample. The main goal of this paper is to test the Rissech acetabular method in a modern South American sample. The material used for the study was 184 women and 378 men from a Colombian-documented skeletal collection. The obtained morphological scores from the acetabulum were analyzed through the IDADE2 web page, a Bayesian statistical program that estimates a relative likelihood distribution for the target individuals, produces age estimates, and provides 95% confidence intervals. Results showed this method is useful in the modern Colombian population with an average absolute error of 10.63 years in females and 9.44 years in males. These errors are similar to those obtained in other European and North American samples when this method was performed and similar or lower than those obtained when the 3 classical aging methods (Suchey-Brooks, Buckberry-Chamberlain, and Lovejoy) were applied in the same collection (absolute error: 10.29 years ♀ and 9.05 years ♂ in Suchey-Brooks, 12.5 years ♀, and 12.17 years ♀ in Buckberry-Chamberlain, and 13.54 years ♀ and 10.99 years ♂ in Lovejoy). Although Rissech's method was developed in a Western European sample, the results of this study indicate its applicability in modern Colombian samples with reasonable accuracy.

Estimation of adult age-at-death from entheseal robusticity: A test using an identified Italian skeletal collection

OBJECTIVES

The present study tests the effectiveness of entheseal robusticity (ER) as a potential predictor of adult age-at-death by applying multiple regression models to a large contemporary identified skeletal sample.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

ER was recorded for 23 bilateral postcranial entheses on 481 adult individuals (271 females and 210 males) from the Frassetto identified skeletal collection of Sassari (Italy), following the method of Mariotti et al. 2007. ER scores were used as predictors in multiple regression analyses with age as the dependent variable; the performance of the resulting models was tested through standard error of estimate, the correlation coefficient between predicted and documented age, and the percentage of correctly classified individuals.

RESULTS

ER show a higher correlation with age in females, resulting in more accurate estimates when compared with those obtained for males. Age-at-death is overestimated for male individuals under 45 years old and underestimated for older individuals. Regression models including a reduced set of ER sites result in better estimates compared with those using the complete set of variables.

DISCUSSION

Results suggest the potential usefulness of ER for the estimation of age, especially for female skeletal remains. If used with caution, ER may be a valid complement to existing methods for the reconstruction of the biological profile of skeletal remains of archaeological and forensic interest.

Exploring sexual dimorphism of the modern human talus through geometric morphometric methods

Sex determination is a pivotal step in forensic and bioarchaeological fields. Generally, scholars focus on metric or qualitative morphological features, but in the last few years several contributions have applied geometric-morphometric (GM) techniques to overcome limitations of traditional approaches. In this study, we explore sexual dimorphism in modern human tali from three early 20th century populations (Sassari and Bologna, Italy; New York, USA) at intra- and interspecific population levels using geometric morphometric (GM) methods. Statistical analyses were performed using shape, form, and size variables. Our results do not show significant differences in shape between males and females, either considering the pooled sample or the individual populations. Differences in talar morphology due to sexual dimorphism are mainly related to allometry, i.e. size-related changes of morphological traits. Discriminant function analysis using form space Principal Components and centroid size correctly classify between 87.7% and 97.2% of the individuals. The result is similar using the pooled sample or the individual population, except for a diminished outcome for the New York group (from 73.9% to 78.2%). Finally, a talus from the Bologna sample (not included in the previous analysis) with known sex was selected to run a virtual resection, followed by two digital reconstructions based on the mean shape of both the pooled sample and the Bologna sample, respectively. The reconstructed talus was correctly classified with a Ppost between 99.9% and 100%, demonstrating that GM is a valuable tool to cope with fragmentary tali, which is a common occurrence in forensic and bioarchaeological contexts.

The accuracy of the Transition Analysis of aging on a heterogenic South African population

Transition Analysis (TA) is an age estimation method for adult skeletons at death, using three skeletal traits together, namely, the cranial sutures (CS), the pubic symphyses (PS) and the auricular surfaces (AS). In forensic anthropology, estimating age at death is vital for positive identification of an individual; however, differences in skeletal elements have been observed between sex and population affinity. The aim of this study was to determine how accurately the TA could be applied to a population that differed from the original reference samples. Scoring methods, described by the authors of this analysis, were used to age individuals (n = 290) in the South African (SA) Mixed Ancestry population, which is a heterogenic population, consisting of many gene pools from different population groups. The results were compared to the actual ages of the skeletal remains, obtained through cadaver records, and the most likely age calculated by the TA, as well as age estimation by means of the three skeletal elements individually. Results showed that there was a significant correlation between the actual and estimated ages of the study population (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.58). The AS was the most accurate trait, whereas the PS was the least accurate trait. In addition, females' estimated ages were more accurate than males. These findings correlated with other authors in terms of the significance of the TA when applied to different populations; however, the individual trait correlations were in disagreement with other authors. The results of this study are an important contribution to anthropological literature as they indicate that there are differences between populations and sex when determining age, but that the TA is still applicable for analysis on this heterogenic population.

The accuracy of 3D virtual bone models of the pelvis for morphological sex estimation

It is currently unknown whether morphological sex estimation traits are accurately portrayed on virtual bone models, and this hampers the use of virtual bone models as an alternative source of contemporary skeletal reference data. This study determines whether commonly used morphological sex estimation traits can be accurately scored on virtual 3D pelvic bone elements. Twenty-seven intact cadavers from the body donation program of the Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, were CT scanned; this data was used to produce virtual bone models. Thereafter, the dry bones were obtained. Three traits by Klales (2012) and five traits from the Workshop of European Anthropologists (WEA) (1980) were scored on the virtual bone models and their dry skeletal counterparts. Intra- and inter-observer agreement and the agreement between the scores for each virtual bone model-dry bone pair were calculated using weighted Cohen’s kappa (K). For all Klales (2012) traits, intra- and inter-observer agreement was substantial to almost perfect for the virtual- and dry bones (K = 0.62–0.90). The agreement in scores in the virtual-dry bone pairs ranged from moderate to almost perfect (K = 0.58–0.82). For the WEA (1980) traits, intra-observer agreement was substantial to almost perfect (K = 0.64–0.91), but results were less unambiguous for inter-observer agreement (K = 0.24–0.88). Comparison of the scores between the virtual bone models and the dry bones yielded kappa values of 0.42–0.87. On one hand, clinical CT data is a promising source for contemporary forensic anthropological reference data, but the interchangeability of forensic anthropological methods between virtual bone models and dry skeletal elements needs to be tested further.

An association between adult lifespan and stature in preindustrial Lithuanian populations: Analysis of skeletons

The aim of this study was to test the null hypothesis that no relationship between maximal living stature and adult lifespan had existed in prehistoric and historic Lithuanian populations. The sample analyzed consisted of 1713 skeletons of adult individuals who died between the 2nd century CE and the beginning of the 19th century CE, collected from 118 archaeological sites located in the current territory of Lithuania. A cumulative logit model was applied to model ordinal age-related changes in the auricular surface and the pubic symphysis (measures of lifespan) as a function of maximal length of femur (an indicator of maximal living stature), sex, burial site and its chronology as a proxy for the place of residence and period. The lack of strong association between adult lifespan and femur length was observed for males and females, various periods and places of residence. However, the results failed to reject convincingly the hypothesis that no relationship between these two variables had existed in preindustrial Lithuanian populations. In addition to concerns regarding sampling and measurement errors, heterogeneous frailty in early life and resulting selective mortality may partly explain the results obtained.

An evaluation of dental methods by Lamendin and Prince and Ubelaker for estimation of adult age in a sample of modern Greeks

Teeth can be used as accurate tools in age-at-death estimation in forensic cases. No previous data exist on estimating age from teeth in a modern Greek population. The aim of this study was to evaluate Lamendin's and Prince and Ubelaker's ageing methods on a modern Greek skeletal sample. In total, 1436 single-rooted teeth from 306 adult individuals (161 males and 145 females) were examined. Only measurements of periodontosis and translucency showed positive correlation with age. Results showed a bias - an overestimation for ages under 40 years and an underestimation over this age. However, the use of wider age groups proved to be more appropriate. Low values of error were observed for the group of middle-aged individuals. In conclusion, both methods can be considered accurate in estimating age-at-death of middle-aged individuals. This study provides more information about the accuracy and applicability of these dental methods on modern European populations.

A test of four innominate bone age assessment methods in a modern skeletal collection from Medellin, Colombia

Studying bone collections with known data has proven to be useful in assessing reliability and accuracy of biological profile reconstruction methods used in Forensic Anthropology. Thus, it is necessary to calibrate these methods to clarify issues such as population variability and accuracy of estimations for the elderly. This work considers observations of morphological features examined by four innominate bone age assessment methods: (1) Suchey-Brooks Pubic Symphysis, (2) Lovejoy Iliac Auricular Surface, (3) Buckberry and Chamberlain Iliac Auricular Surface, and (4) Rouge-Maillart Iliac Auricular Surface and Acetabulum. This study conducted a blind test of a sample of 277 individuals from two contemporary skeletal collections from Universal and San Pedro cemeteries in Medellin, for which known pre-mortem data support the statistical analysis of results obtained using the four age assessment methods. Results from every method show tendency to increase bias and inaccuracy in relation to age, but Buckberry-Chamberlain and Rougé-Maillart's methods are the most precise for this particular Colombian population, where Buckberry-Chamberlain's is the best for analysis of older individuals.

Sex and age at death estimation from the sternal end of the fourth rib. Does Íşcan's method really work?

The fourth rib has been used commonly in order to estimate age at death and even sex in skeletal remains but many often, Iscan's estimates do not adjust to the real age of the individual. Population specific references for sex and age-at-death estimation from the sternal end of the fourth rib are presented for a contemporary Mexican sample. A total of 504 ribs with known sex and age from a morgue sample were studied (444 males, 60 females, 17 to 92 years old). The height and breadth of the sternal end of the rib were sexually dimorphic (p = .000), and allowed a correct sex assignment in 73.3% to 84% of the cases from univariate and multivariate discriminant functions. With regard to age-at-death estimation, the morphological changes summarized by the phases of the sternal end of the fourth rib are correlated with known age in this sample (Spearman's Rho, p = .000). However, the original age intervals tend to underestimate age at death and inaccuracy increases with phase scored in males. Descriptive statistics for rib phase are provided for males and females, and new age-at-death estimates based on transition analysis and Bayesian statistics are provided for the male sample. The test of universally applied methods and the development of population specific references is an important task for forensic anthropology around the world.

DXAGE: A New Method for Age at Death Estimation Based on Femoral Bone Mineral Density and Artificial Neural Networks

Age at death estimation in adult skeletons is hampered, among others, by the unremarkable correlation of bone estimators with chronological age, implementation of inappropriate statistical techniques, observer error, and skeletal incompleteness or destruction. Therefore, it is beneficial to consider alternative methods to assess age at death in adult skeletons. The decrease in bone mineral density with age was explored to generate a method to assess age at death in human remains. A connectionist computational approach, artificial neural networks, was employed to model femur densitometry data gathered in 100 female individuals from the Coimbra Identified Skeletal Collection. Bone mineral density declines consistently with age and the method performs appropriately, with mean absolute differences between known and predicted age ranging from 9.19 to 13.49 years. The proposed method-DXAGE-was implemented online to streamline age estimation. This preliminary study highlights the value of densitometry to assess age at death in human remains.

The influence of bone loss on the three adult age markers of the innominate

To evaluate the influence of bone loss on the three adult age markers of the innominate, 30 males and 30 females aged between 16 and 80 years coming from the British Coventry collection were analyzed. The pubic symphysis, auricular surface, and acetabulum age variables were evaluated following the descriptions of Schmitt, Buckberry-Chamberlain, and Rissech, respectively. The second metacarpal cortical index was used to evaluate bone loss. Possible sexual differences in metrical variables were explored by a Student t-test taking into account the entire sample. The possible relationships between the cortical index and the three age methods' stages were assessed by the Kruskall-Wallis test and Spearman's correlation coefficient. There were no sexual differences in the cortical index. In general, we observed no significant differences between the cortical index in the different stages of the pubic symphysis, auricular surface, or acetabulum variables in men and women. Most correlation coefficients are negatives, and their absolute values are between 0.001 and 0.44, indicating an extremely low influence of bone loss on the analyzed variables. Our findings suggest little influence of bone loss in the three ageing methods. However, further research on this topic is necessary. This is the first study to analyze the influence of bone loss in the ageing changes undergone by the variables of the three adult age indicators of the innominate taking into account both sexes.

The geometrical precision of virtual bone models derived from clinical computed tomography data for forensic anthropology

Almost all European countries lack contemporary skeletal collections for the development and validation of forensic anthropological methods. Furthermore, legal, ethical and practical considerations hinder the development of skeletal collections. A virtual skeletal database derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) scans provides a potential solution. However, clinical CT scans are typically generated with varying settings. This study investigates the effects of image segmentation and varying imaging conditions on the precision of virtual modelled pelves. An adult human cadaver was scanned using varying imaging conditions, such as scanner type and standard patient scanning protocol, slice thickness and exposure level. The pelvis was segmented from the various CT images resulting in virtually modelled pelves. The precision of the virtual modelling was determined per polygon mesh point. The fraction of mesh points resulting in point-to-point distance variations of 2 mm or less (95% confidence interval (CI)) was reported. Colour mapping was used to visualise modelling variability. At almost all (>97%) locations across the pelvis, the point-to-point distance variation is less than 2 mm (CI = 95%). In >91% of the locations, the point-to-point distance variation was less than 1 mm (CI = 95%). This indicates that the geometric variability of the virtual pelvis as a result of segmentation and imaging conditions rarely exceeds the generally accepted linear error of 2 mm. Colour mapping shows that areas with large variability are predominantly joint surfaces. Therefore, results indicate that segmented bone elements from patient-derived CT scans are a sufficiently precise source for creating a virtual skeletal database.

Shape variability of the adult human acetabulum and acetabular fossa related to sex and age by geometric morphometrics. Implications for adult age estimation

This study aims to explore shape variability of the acetabulum during the human adult life span, in relation to sex and age. The human acetabular shape was analysed in 682 os coxae from three different documented skeletal collections from the Iberian Peninsula. Two landmarks and thirty-two sliding semi-landmarks were used for the geometric morphometric procedures and a clock-wise standard was used for orientation. The 180° meridian (6:00) line was positioned over the midpoint of the acetabular notch and 36 reference points in 10° increments along the rim were marked. Data showed that size, sex and age significantly influence acetabular shape variation. Sex differences were significant in individuals younger than 65 years old and were characterised by males exhibiting relatively extended acetabular rim profiles from 10:00 to 1:00, narrower acetabular notches, and reduced acetabular fossae. In addition, three main age-related changes occurred to the acetabular shape in both sexes: outer acetabular profile modification, with extension from 10:00 to 1:00 and reduction from 7:00 to 9:00, acetabular notch narrowing, and acetabular fossa reduction. The age-related changes that were observed are shared by both sexes and seem to be related to bone production associated with age. Specifically, age appears to affect the entire border of the lunate surface: the acetabular rim, both acetabular horns, and the outer edge of the acetabular fossa. Furthermore, shape data confirmed the clover-leaf shape of the acetabular fossa in both males and females. These results improve our understanding of acetabular shape, and assist in refining age-estimation methods and enhancing hip surgery and rehabilitation.

Principal component analysis in the evaluation of osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate advantages of principal component analysis (PCA) as a standardized procedure in the evaluation of osteoarthritis (OA) in a skeletal series to: (1) compute aggregate scores for joint complexes that accurately capture pathological expression, (2) reveal which variables describe the most sample variation in OA, (3) enable inter- and intra-sample comparison of results, and (4) formulate predictive models from component-based arthritic scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The sample (144 males, 145 females) is drawn from a large skeletal cemetery collection of modern Europeans of known sex, age, and occupation. OA data was collected using standard ranked categorical scoring. PCA was conducted separately on lumbar spine, pelvis, and knee regions to generate composite OA scores from eigenequations of the first and second principal components (PC).

RESULTS

Results demonstrate that as severity in OA increases, so does the distribution of OA within the joint surface. In each region, PCA produced the same general pattern with eburnation scoring driving significant changes in composite OA scores, representing earlier to later stages of cartilage degeneration. The distribution of arthritic traits determined by PCA produced an OA score that quantifies the expression of joint changes in varied biological joint structures from most moveable to least mobile, the final stage being joint fusion. OA scores are most highly variable in the lumbar region for both males and females, as compared to the pelvis and knee.

CONCLUSIONS

PCA is a simple, non-parametric method of extracting relevant information from complex OA datasets and summarizes variation based on correlated multi-attributes to reveal a simplified structure of OA expression. Multivariate techniques like PCA should be used to describe discrete OA samples, and are useful to compute population-specific representative measurements for idiopathic joint OA in a skeletal sample.

New approach to age estimation of male and female adult skeletons based on the morphological characteristics of the acetabulum

Age estimation is essential to the human identification process, both in forensic and archeological contexts. Based on the previous male-specific method of Rissech et al. (J Forensic Sci, 2006, 51:213-229), a new approach to age estimation based on the acetabulum has been described and evaluated in 611 individuals from the Lisbon Collection (Lisbon, Portugal). This paper has two main goals: (1) to revise and better define the variables of Rissech's method related to the acetabular fossa, namely, variables 5, 6, and 7, and (2) to extend the applicability of this new approach to both sexes while analyzing age-related sex differences in the acetabular aging process. The results demonstrate the suitability of combining acetabulum traits and a Bayesian approach to estimating age in adults of both sexes. This study has confirmed the usefulness of the redefined variables of the acetabular fossa when age-related changes are considered. Furthermore, the newly defined variables have good to excellent values of repeatability. The study has also extended the method's applicability to females. The revised method has absolute error averages of 7.28 years for males and 7.09 years for females, based on a sex-specific reference sample. In addition, approximately 74 % of the individuals estimated had an absolute error less than 10 years. Interestingly, the acetabular aging process follows similar trends in both sexes, but the aging rate seems to be different between males and females, especially in middle-aged individuals. Despite the fact that the age estimates, on average, did not improve significantly with the use of a sex-specific reference sample, it is recommended that the sexes be analyzed separately due to the differences in aging rates and inaccuracy values.

Reliability of the Suchey-Brooks method for a French contemporary population

The Suchey-Brooks method is commonly used for pubic symphyseal aging in forensic cases. However, inter-population variability is a problem affected by several factors such as geographical location and secular trends. The aim of our study was to test the reliability of the Suchey-Brooks method on a virtual sample of contemporary French males. We carried out a retrospective study of 680 pubic symphysis from adult males undergoing clinical Multislice Computed Tomography in two hospitals between January 2013 and July 2014 (Toulouse and Tours, France). The reliability of the Suchey-Brooks method was tested by the calculation of inaccuracy and bias between real and estimated ages, and the mean age for each stage and the mean stage for each 10-years age interval were compared. The degree of inaccuracy and bias increased with age and inaccuracy exceeded 20 years for individuals over 65 years of age. The results are consistent with an overestimation of the real age for stages I and II and an underestimation of the real age for stages IV, V and VI. Furthermore, the mean stages of the reference sample were significantly lower for the 14-25 age group and significantly higher for individuals over 35 years old. Age estimation is potentially limited by differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. Furthermore, the effects of secular trends are also supported by research in European countries showing a reduction in the age of attainment of indicators of biological maturity during the past few decades. The results suggest that the Suchey-Brooks method should be used with caution in France. Our study supports previous findings and in the future, the Suchey-Brooks method could benefit from re-evaluation of the aging standards by the establishment of new virtual reference samples.

Multivariate cumulative probit for age estimation using ordinal categorical data

BACKGROUND

Multivariate ordinal categorical data have figured prominently in the age estimation literature. Unfortunately, the osteological and dental age estimation literature is often disconnected from the statistical literature that provides the underpinnings for rationale analyses.

AIM

The aim of the study is to provide an analytical basis for age estimation using multiple ordinal categorical traits.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Data on ectocranial suture closure from 1152 individuals are analysed in a multivariate cumulative probit model fit using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.

RESULTS

Twenty-six parameters in a five variable analysis are estimated, including the 10 unique elements of the five × five correlation matrix. The correlation matrix differs substantially from the identity matrix one would assume under conditional independence among the sutures.

CONCLUSION

While the assumption of conditional independence between traits greatly simplifies the use of parametric models in age estimation, this assumption is not a necessary step. Further, in the analysis discussed here there are considerable residual correlations between ectocranial suture closure scores even after 'regressing out' the effect of age.