RATES OF EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE IN CHROMOSOME NUMBERS IN SNAILS AND VERTEBRATES

Tempo and mode in karyotype evolution revealed by a probabilistic model incorporating both chromosome number and morphology

Karyotype, including the chromosome and arm numbers, is a fundamental genetic characteristic of all organisms and has long been used as a species-diagnostic character. Additionally, karyotype evolution plays an important role in divergent adaptation and speciation. Centric fusion and fission change chromosome numbers, whereas the intra-chromosomal movement of the centromere, such as pericentric inversion, changes arm numbers. A probabilistic model simultaneously incorporating both chromosome and arm numbers has not been established. Here, we built a probabilistic model of karyotype evolution based on the "karyograph", which treats karyotype evolution as a walk on the two-dimensional space representing the chromosome and arm numbers. This model enables analysis of the stationary distribution with a stable karyotype for any given parameter. After evaluating their performance using simulated data, we applied our model to two large taxonomic groups of fish, Eurypterygii and series Otophysi, to perform maximum likelihood estimation of the transition rates and reconstruct the evolutionary history of karyotypes. The two taxa significantly differed in the evolution of arm number. The inclusion of speciation and extinction rates demonstrated possibly high extinction rates in species with karyotypes other than the most typical karyotype in both groups. Finally, we made a model including polyploidization rates and applied it to a small plant group. Thus, the use of this probabilistic model can contribute to a better understanding of tempo and mode in karyotype evolution and its possible role in speciation and extinction.

Comparative analysis of chromosome counts infers three paleopolyploidies in the mollusca

The study of paleopolyploidies requires the comparison of multiple whole genome sequences. If the branches of a phylogeny on which a whole-genome duplication (WGD) occurred could be identified before genome sequencing, taxa could be selected that provided a better assessment of that genome duplication. Here, we describe a likelihood model in which the number of chromosomes in a genome evolves according to a Markov process with one rate of chromosome duplication and loss that is proportional to the number of chromosomes in the genome and another stochastic rate at which every chromosome in the genome could duplicate in a single event. We compare the maximum likelihoods of a model in which the genome duplication rate varies to one in which it is fixed at zero using the Akaike information criterion, to determine if a model with WGDs is a good fit for the data. Once it has been determined that the data does fit the WGD model, we infer the phylogenetic position of paleopolyploidies by calculating the posterior probability that a WGD occurred on each branch of the taxon tree. Here, we apply this model to a molluscan tree represented by 124 taxa and infer three putative WGD events. In the Gastropoda, we identify a single branch within the Hypsogastropoda and one of two branches at the base of the Stylommatophora. We also identify one or two branches near the base of the Cephalopoda.