ESTIMATING SELECTION ON QUANTITATIVE TRAITS USING CAPTURE‐RECAPTURE DATA

Temporally varying disruptive selection in the medium ground finch (Geospiza fortis)

Disruptive natural selection within populations exploiting different resources is considered to be a major driver of adaptive radiation and the production of biodiversity. Fitness functions, which describe the relationships between trait variation and fitness, can help to illuminate how this disruptive selection leads to population differentiation. However, a single fitness function represents only a particular selection regime over a single specified time period (often a single season or a year), and therefore might not capture longer-term dynamics. Here, we build a series of annual fitness functions that quantify the relationships between phenotype and apparent survival. These functions are based on a 9-year mark-recapture dataset of over 600 medium ground finches (Geospiza fortis) within a population bimodal for beak size. We then relate changes in the shape of these functions to climate variables. We find that disruptive selection between small and large beak morphotypes, as reported previously for 2 years, is present throughout the study period, but that the intensity of this selection varies in association with the harshness of environment. In particular, we find that disruptive selection was strongest when precipitation was high during the dry season of the previous year. Our results shed light on climatic factors associated with disruptive selection in Darwin's finches, and highlight the role of temporally varying fitness functions in modulating the extent of population differentiation.

LOGISTIC REGRESSION FOR EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF MULTIVARIATE SELECTION

Understanding the mechanics of adaptive evolution requires not only knowing the quantitative genetic bases of the traits of interest but also obtaining accurate measures of the strengths and modes of selection acting on these traits. Most recent empirical studies of multivariate selection have employed multiple linear regression to obtain estimates of the strength of selection. We reconsider the motivation for this approach, paying special attention to the effects of nonnormal traits and fitness measures. We apply an alternative statistical method, logistic regression, to estimate the strength of selection on multiple phenotypic traits. First, we argue that the logistic regression model is more suitable than linear regression for analyzing data from selection studies with dichotomous fitness outcomes. Subsequently, we show that estimates of selection obtained from the logistic regression analyses can be transformed easily to values that directly plug into equations describing adaptive microevolutionary change. Finally, we apply this methodology to two published datasets to demonstrate its utility. Because most statistical packages now provide options to conduct logistic regression analyses, we suggest that this approach should be widely adopted as an analytical tool for empirical studies of multivariate selection.

Survival by genotype: patterns at Mc1r are not black and white at the White Sands ecotone

Measuring links among genotype, phenotype and survival in the wild has long been a focus of studies of adaptation. We conducted a 4-year capture-recapture study to measure survival by genotype and phenotype in the Southwestern Fence Lizard (Sceloporus cowlesi) at the White Sands ecotone (transition area between white sands and dark soil habitats). We report several unanticipated findings. First, in contrast with previous work showing that cryptic blanched coloration in S. cowlesi from the heart of the dunes is associated with mutations in the melanocortin-1 receptor gene (Mc1r), ecotonal S. cowlesi showed minimal association between colour phenotype and Mc1r genotype. Second, the frequency of the derived Mc1r allele in ecotonal S. cowlesi appeared to decrease over time. Third, our capture-recapture data revealed a lower survival rate for S. cowlesi individuals with the derived Mc1r allele. Thus, our results suggest that selection at the ecotone may have favoured the wild-type allele in recent years. Even in a system where a genotype-phenotype association appeared to be black and white, our study suggests that additional factors - including phenotypic plasticity, epistasis, pleiotropy and gene flow - may play important roles at the White Sands ecotone. Our study highlights the importance of linking molecular, genomic and organismal approaches for understanding adaptation in the wild. Furthermore, our findings indicate that dynamics of natural selection can be particularly complex in transitional habitats like ecotones and emphasize the need for future research that examines the patterns of ongoing selection in other ecological 'grey' zones.

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture–recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture–recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture–recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap-shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin-based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture–recapture is a powerful tool to test it.

Multilevel selection and neighbourhood effects from individual to metapopulation in a wild passerine

Multilevel selection has rarely been studied in the ecological context of animal populations, in which neighbourhood effects range from competition among territorial neighbours to source-sink effects among local populations. By studying a Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti metapopulation, we analyze neighbourhood effects mediated by song repertoires on fitness components at the individual level (life-span) and population level (growth rate). As a sexual/aggressive signal with strong effects on fitness, birdsong creates an opportunity for group selection via neighbour interactions, but may also have population-wide effects by conveying information on habitat suitability to dispersing individuals. Within populations, we found a disruptive pattern of selection at the individual level and an opposite, stabilizing pattern at the group level. Males singing the most complex songs had the longest life-span, but individuals with the poorest repertoires lived longer than 'average' males, a finding that likely reflects two male strategies with respect to fitness and sexual trait expression. Individuals from groups with intermediate repertoires had the longest life-span, likely benefitting from conspecific signalling to attract females up to the detrimental spread of competitive interactions in groups with superior vocal skills. Within the metapopulation selection was directional but again followed opposite patterns at the two levels: Populations had the highest growth rate when inhabiting local patches with complex repertoires surrounded by patches with simple repertoires. Here the song may impact metapopulation dynamics by guiding prospecting individuals towards populations advertising habitat quality. Two fitness components linked to viability were therefore influenced by the properties of the group, and birdsong was the target of selection, contributing to linking social/sexual processes at the local scale with regional population dynamics.

Do individuals in better condition survive for longer? Field survival estimates according to male alternative reproductive tactics and sex

There is a gap in terms of the supposed survival differences recorded in the field according to individual condition. This is partly due to our inability to assess survival in the wild. Here we applied modern statistical techniques to field-gathered data in two damselfly species whose males practice alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) and whose indicators of condition in both sexes are known. In Paraphlebia zoe, there are two ART: a larger black-winged (BW) male which defends mating territories and a smaller hyaline-winged (HW) male that usually acts as a satellite. In this species, condition in both morphs is correlated with body size. In Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis, males follow tactics according to their condition with males in better condition practicing a territorial ART. In addition, in this species, condition correlates positively with wing pigmentation in both sexes. Our prediction for both species was that males practicing the territorial tactic will survive less longer than males using a nonterritorial tactic, and larger or more pigmented animals will survive for longer. In P. zoe, BW males survived less than females but did not differ from HW males, and not necessarily larger individuals survived for longer. In fact, size affected survival but only when group identity was analysed, showing a positive relationship in females and a slightly negative relationship in both male morphs. For C. haemorrhoidalis, survival was larger for more pigmented males and females, but size was not a good survival predictor. Our results partially confirm assumptions based on the maintenance of ARTs. Our results also indicate that female pigmentation, correlates with a fitness component - survival - as proposed by recent sexual selection ideas applied to females.

Estimating and visualizing fitness surfaces using mark-recapture data

Understanding how selection operates on a set of phenotypic traits is central to evolutionary biology. Often, it requires estimating survival (or other fitness-related life-history traits) which can be difficult to obtain for natural populations because individuals cannot be exhaustively followed. To cope with this issue of imperfect detection, we advocate the use of mark-recapture data and we provide a general framework for both the estimation of linear and nonlinear selection gradients and the visualization of fitness surfaces. To quantify the strength of selection, the standard second-order polynomial regression method is integrated in mark-recapture models. To visualize the form of selection, we use splines to display selection acting on multivariate phenotypes in the most flexible way. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters, assessing traits relevance and calculating the optimal amount of smoothing. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of Common blackbirds (Turdus merula) to investigate survival in relation to morphological traits, and provide evidence for correlational selection using the new methodology. Overall, the framework we propose will help in exploring the full potential of mark-recapture data to study natural selection.

The risk of flawed inference in evolutionary studies when detectability is less than one

Addressing evolutionary questions in the wild remains a challenge. It is best done by monitoring organisms from birth to death, which is very difficult in part because individuals may or may not be resighted or recaptured. Although the issue of uncertain detection has long been acknowledged in ecology and conservation biology, in evolutionary studies of wild populations it is often assumed that detectability is perfect. We argue that this assumption may lead to flawed inference. We demonstrate that the form of natural selection acting on body mass of sociable weavers is altered and that the rate of senescence of roe deer is underestimated when not accounting for a value of detectability that is less than one. Because mark-recapture models provide an explicit way to integrate and reliably model the detection process, we strongly recommend their use to address questions in evolutionary biology.

Analysing the effect of movement on local survival: a new method with an application to a spatially structured population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata

Mortality during movement between habitat patches is the most obvious cost of dispersal, but rarely it has been demonstrated empirically. An approach is presented, which uses capture-mark-recapture data of an arboreal gecko species to determine the effect of individual movement on local survival in a spatially structured population. Because capture-mark-recapture data are widely available for a range of animal species, it should be possible to extend their application to other species. The method is based on the assumption that the tendency to be a territorial animal or to be a floating animal is fixed during the study period. The advantage of our approach is that only one additional parameter has to be estimated for describing movement risks. We further tested the power of our approach to detect an association of movement and mortality with simulated capture histories. The study revealed a strong negative effect of movement on local survival. Hence, animals that moved more often between trees had a lower survival rate. Interestingly, the mean movement rate for males was significantly higher than for females, which should lead to a biased sex ratio towards females in the population. As there was an even sex ratio in the population, we discuss not mutually exclusive explanations for this finding like differences in emigration rates between sexes, differences in survival rates between sexes, or a skewed sex ratio in offspring.

Stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait in a passerine bird

Natural selection is a central tenet of evolutionary theory, yet the estimation of the direction and intensity of selection remains problematic. Here, we assess the strength of selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual ornament, bill colour, in male European blackbirds (Turdus merula) using 5 years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data. The best-fitting model consisted of a quadratic relationship between survival rate and bill colour, indicating stabilizing natural selection on the early expression of a secondary sexual trait. There was no evidence for sexual selection acting on bill colour in the first year. We suggest that the consideration of early selection and the adoption of refined statistical methods may reveal patterns of selection in the wild that have, as yet, remained undetected.

CORRECTING FOR SAMPLING BIAS IN QUANTITATIVE MEASURES OF SELECTION WHEN FITNESS IS DISCRETE

We show with a simulation that nonrepresentative sampling of two discrete fitness classes leads to biased estimates of selection. Systematic underestimation occurs if the selected class is overrepresented in the sample and overestimation if the unselected class is overrepresented. The bias is greater the stronger the selection intensity, the smaller the true fraction of individuals favored by selected, and the lower the sample size. We present a simple method that allows a posteriori statistical correction in cases of biased sampling given a separate estimate of the actual class representation, describe its practical implementation, and show that it works.