HOW SPECIES LONGEVITY, INTRASPECIFIC MORPHOLOGICAL VARIATION, AND GEOGRAPHIC RANGE SIZE ARE RELATED: A COMPARISON USING LATE CAMBRIAN TRILOBITES

Evolvability and Macroevolution: Overview and Synthesis

Evolvability is best addressed from a multi-level, macroevolutionary perspective through a comparative approach that tests for among-clade differences in phenotypic diversification in response to an opportunity, such as encountered after a mass extinction, entering a new adaptive zone, or entering a new geographic area. Analyzing the dynamics of clades under similar environmental conditions can (partially) factor out shared external drivers to recognize intrinsic differences in evolvability, aiming for a macroevolutionary analog of a common-garden experiment. Analyses will be most powerful when integrating neontological and paleontological data: determining differences among extant populations that can be hypothesized to generate large-scale, long-term contrasts in evolvability among clades; or observing large-scale differences among clade histories that can by hypothesized to reflect contrasts in genetics and development observed directly in extant populations. However, many comparative analyses can be informative on their own, as explored in this overview. Differences in clade-level evolvability can be visualized in diversity-disparity plots, which can quantify positive and negative departures of phenotypic productivity from stochastic expectations scaled to taxonomic diversification. Factors that evidently can promote evolvability include modularity—when selection aligns with modular structure or with morphological integration patterns; pronounced ontogenetic changes in morphology, as in allometry or multiphase life cycles; genome size; and a variety of evolutionary novelties, which can also be evaluated using macroevolutionary lags between the acquisition of a trait and phenotypic diversification, and dead-clade-walking patterns that may signal a loss of evolvability when extrinsic factors can be excluded. High speciation rates may indirectly foster phenotypic evolvability, and vice versa. Mechanisms are controversial, but clade evolvability may be higher in the Cambrian, and possibly early in the history of clades at other times; in the tropics; and, for marine organisms, in shallow-water disturbed habitats.

Unexpected bite-force conservatism as a stable performance foundation across mesoeucrocodylian historical diversity

Effective interpretation of historical selective regimes requires comprehensive in vivo performance evaluations and well-constrained ecomorphological proxies. The feeding apparatus is a frequent target of such evolutionary studies due to a direct relationship between feeding and survivorship, and the durability of craniodental elements in the fossil record. Among vertebrates, behaviors such as bite force have been central to evaluation of clade dynamics; yet, in the absence of detailed performance studies, such evaluations can misidentify potential selective factors and their roles. Here, we combine the results of a total-clade performance study with fossil-inclusive, phylogenetically informed methods to assess bite-force proxies throughout mesoeucrocodylian evolution. Although bite-force shifts were previously thought to respond to changing rostrodental selective regimes, we find body-size dependent conservation of performance proxies throughout the history of the clade, indicating stabilizing selection for bite-force potential. Such stasis reveals that mesoeucrocodylians with dietary ecologies as disparate as herbivory and hypercarnivory maintain similar bite-force-to-body-size relationships, a pattern which contrasts the precept that vertebrate bite forces should vary most strongly by diet. Furthermore, it may signal that bite-force conservation supported mesoeucrocodylian craniodental disparity by providing a stable performance foundation for the exploration of novel ecomorphospace.

Using GIS to examine biogeographic and macroevolutionary patterns in some late Paleozoic cephalopods from the North American Midcontinent Sea

Geographic range is an important macroevolutionary parameter frequently considered in paleontological studies as species’ distributions and range sizes are determined by a variety of biotic and abiotic factors well known to affect the differential birth and death of species. Thus, considering how distributions and range sizes fluctuate over time can provide important insight into evolutionary dynamics. This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and analyses of evolutionary rates to examine how in some species within the Cephalopoda, an important pelagic clade, geographic range size and rates of speciation and extinction changed throughout the Pennsylvanian and early Permian in the North American Midcontinent Sea. This period is particularly interesting for biogeographic and evolutionary studies because it is characterized by repetitive interglacial-glacial cycles, a global transition from an icehouse to a greenhouse climate during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age, and decelerated macroevolutionary dynamics, i.e. low speciation and extinction rates. The analyses presented herein indicate that cephalopod species diversity was not completely static and actually fluctuated throughout the Pennsylvanian and early Permian, matching findings from other studies. However, contrary to some other studies, the mean geographic ranges of cephalopod species did not change significantly through time, despite numerous climate oscillations; further, geographic range size did not correlate with rates of speciation and extinction. These results suggest that pelagic organisms may have responded differently to late Paleozoic climate changes than benthic organisms, although additional consideration of this issue is needed. Finally, these results indicate that, at least in the case of cephalopods, macroevolution during the late Paleozoic was more dynamic than previously characterized, and patterns may have varied across different clades during this interval.

Evidence for Trait-Based Dominance in Occupancy among Fossil Taxa and the Decoupling of Macroecological and Macroevolutionary Success

Biological systems provide examples of differential success among taxa, from ecosystems with a few dominant species (ecological success) to clades that possess far more species than sister clades (macroevolutionary success). Macroecological success, the occupation by a species or clade of an unusually high number of areas, has received less attention. If macroecological success reflects heritable traits, then successful species should be related. Genera composed of species possessing those traits should occupy more areas than genera with comparable species richness that lack such traits. Alternatively, if macroecological success reflects autapomorphic traits, then generic occupancy should be a by-product of species richness among genera and occupancy of constituent species. We test this using Phanerozoic marine invertebrates. Although temporal patterns of species and generic occupancy are strongly correlated, inequality in generic occupancy typically is greater than expected. Genus-level patterns cannot be explained solely with species-level patterns. Within individual intervals, deviations between the observed and expected generic occupancy correlate with the number of lithological units (stratigraphic formations), particularly after controlling for geographic range and species richness. However, elevated generic occupancy is unrelated to or negatively associated with either generic geographic ranges or within-genus species richness. Our results suggest that shared traits among congeneric species encourage short-term macroecological success without generating short-term macroevolutionary success. A broad niche may confer high occupancy but does not necessarily promote speciation.

Morphological homeostasis in the fossil record

Morphological homeostasis limits the extent to which genetic and/or environmental variation is translated into phenotypic variation, providing generation-to-generation fitness advantage under a stabilizing selection regime. Depending on its lability, morphological homeostasis might also have a longer-term impact on evolution by restricting the variation-and thus the response to directional selection-of a trait. The fossil record offers an inviting opportunity to investigate whether and how morphological homeostasis constrained trait evolution in lineages or clades on long timescales (thousands to millions of years) that are not accessible to neontological studies. Fossils can also reveal insight into the nature of primitive developmental systems that might not be predictable from the study of modern organisms. The ability to study morphological homeostasis in fossils is strongly limited by taphonomic processes that can destroy, blur, or distort the original biological signal: genetic data are unavailable; phenotypic data can be modified by tectonic or compaction-related deformation; time-averaging limits temporal resolution; and environmental variation is hard to study and impossible to control. As a result of these processes, neither allelic sensitivity (and thus genetic canalization) nor macroenvironmental sensitivity (and thus environmental canalization) can be unambiguously assessed in the fossil record. However, homeorhesis-robustness against microenvironmental variation (developmental noise)-can be assessed in ancient developmental systems by measuring the level of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in a nominally symmetric trait. This requires the analysis of multiple, minimally time-averaged samples of exquisite preservational quality. Studies of FA in fossils stand to make valuable contributions to our understanding of the deep-time significance of homeorhesis. Few empirical studies have been conducted to date, and future paleontological research focusing on how homeorhesis relates to evolutionary rate (including stasis), species survivorship, and purported macroevolutionary trends in evolvability would reap high reward.

Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil-calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa-specific Red Listing status.

Geographic range velocity and its association with phylogeny and life history traits in North American woody plants

The geographic ranges of taxa change in response to environmental conditions. Yet whether rates of range movement (biotic velocities) are phylogenetically conserved is not well known. Phylogenetic conservatism of biotic velocities could reflect similarities among related lineages in climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We assess whether late Quaternary biotic velocities were phylogenetically conserved and whether they correlate with climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We used phylogenetic regression and nonparametric correlation to evaluate associations between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances for 28 woody plant genera and subgenera in North America. The velocities with which woody plant taxa shifted their core geographic range limits were positively correlated from time step to time step between 16 and 7 ka. The strength of this correlation weakened after 7 ka as the pace of climate change slowed. Dispersal-associated traits and climatic tolerances were not associated with biotic velocities. Although the biotic velocities of some genera were consistently fast and others consistently slow, biotic velocities were not phylogenetically conserved. The rapid late Quaternary range shifts of plants lacking traits that facilitate frequent long-distance dispersal has long been noted (i.e., Reid's Paradox). Our results are consistent with this paradox and show that it remains robust when phylogenetic information is taken into account. The lack of association between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances may reflect several, nonmutually exclusive processes, including rare long-distance dispersal, biotic interactions, and cryptic refugia. Because late Quaternary biotic velocities were decoupled from dispersal-associated traits, trait data for genera and subgenera cannot be used to predict longer-term (millennial-scale) floristic responses to climate change.

Fossils, phylogenies, and the challenge of preserving evolutionary history in the face of anthropogenic extinctions

Anthropogenic impacts are endangering many long-lived species and lineages, possibly leading to a disproportionate loss of existing evolutionary history (EH) in the future. However, surprisingly little is known about the loss of EH during major extinctions in the geological past, and thus we do not know whether human impacts are pruning the tree of life in a manner that is unique in the history of life. A major impediment to comparing the loss of EH during past and current extinctions is the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from paleontological data versus molecular phylogenies. In the former case the age of a taxon is its entire stratigraphic range, regardless of how many daughter taxa it may have produced; for the latter it is the time to the most recent common ancestor shared with another extant taxon. To explore this issue, we use simulations to understand how the loss of EH is manifested in the two data types. We also present empirical analyses of the marine bivalve clade Pectinidae (scallops) during a major Plio-Pleistocene extinction in California that involved a preferential loss of younger species. Overall, our results show that the conceptual difference in how ages are estimated from the stratigraphic record versus molecular phylogenies does not preclude comparisons of age selectivities of past and present extinctions. Such comparisons not only provide fundamental insights into the nature of the extinction process but should also help improve evolutionarily informed models of conservation prioritization.

Species longevity in North American fossil mammals

Species longevity in the fossil record is related to many paleoecological variables and is important to macroevolutionary studies, yet there are very few reliable data on average species durations in Cenozoic fossil mammals. Many of the online databases (such as the Paleobiology Database) use only genera of North American Cenozoic mammals and there are severe problems because key groups (e.g. camels, oreodonts, pronghorns and proboscideans) have no reliable updated taxonomy, with many invalid genera and species and/or many undescribed genera and species. Most of the published datasets yield species duration estimates of approximately 2.3-4.3 Myr for larger mammals, with small mammals tending to have shorter species durations. My own compilation of all the valid species durations in families with updated taxonomy (39 families, containing 431 genera and 998 species, averaging 2.3 species per genus) yields a mean duration of 3.21 Myr for larger mammals. This breaks down to 4.10-4.39 Myr for artiodactyls, 3.14-3.31 Myr for perissodactyls and 2.63-2.95 Myr for carnivorous mammals (carnivorans plus creodonts). These averages are based on a much larger, more robust dataset than most previous estimates, so they should be more reliable for any studies that need species longevity to be accurately estimated.

Decoupling of taxonomic diversity and morphological disparity during decline of the Cambrian trilobite family Pterocephaliidae

Although discordance between taxonomic diversity and morphological disparity is common, little is known about the underlying dynamics that drive this decoupling. Early in the history of the Cambrian trilobite family Pterocephaliidae, there was an increase in taxonomic diversity and morphological diversity. As taxonomic diversity declined in the later history of the clade, range of variation stayed high and disparity continued to increase. However, per-branch rates of morphological evolution estimated from a recent phylogeny decreased with time. Neither within-trait nor within-species variation increased or decreased, suggesting that the declining rates of morphological evolution were more likely related to ecological opportunity or niche partitioning, rather than increasing intrinsic constraints. This is further supported by evidence for increased biofacies associations throughout the time period. Thus, the high disparity seen at low taxonomic diversity late in the history of this clade was due to extinction - either random or targeting mean forms - rather than increased rates of morphological evolution. This pattern also provides a scenario that could account for instances of low taxonomic diversity but high morphological disparity in modern groups.

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.