Recent developments in the experimental investigation of the illusion of control. A meta-analytic review

Statistical process control charts for better analysis of sequential data in psychology: The case of illusion of control experiments

Illusion of control (IOC) is a bias in the judgment of personal success with implications to learning theories and health policies; some important questions in the investigation of IOC may be related to traditional measures in the field, namely self-assessment using Likert scales about the sense of control. Statistical process control (SPC) and Shewhart charts are methods developed to monitor and control industrial processes, never applied in psychological studies before. The present two studies investigated the use of the technique of Shewhart charts in the analysis of IOC. The purpose was to explore the use of SPC and Shewhart charts in the analysis of data sequences from psychological experiments; the objective was to analyze the results of reaction time (RT) data sequences plotted in SPC charts, in comparison with self-assessment judgments from an IOC task. Participants were 63 undergraduate students (Study 1) and 103 mine workers (Study 2) instructed to try to control a traffic light on a computer by pressing or not the keyboard. Higher probabilities of the successful outcome generated judgments of illusion and shifts (due to cognitive activity) in the charts of RT; lower probabilities resulted in null illusion and RT presented a random and stable profile. Patterns for different groups emerged in Shewhart charts. SPC can contribute to the analysis of the behavior of sequences of data in psychological studies, so that the charts indicate changes and patterns not detected by traditional ANOVA and other linear models.

Gambling and ageing: less illusion but more risk

Seniors are a population of concern due to exposure to both increasing gambling venues and powerful age-specific risk factors. There has been only limited research on this population so far, but studies conducted among younger adults suggest that the illusion of control is a key factor, leading players to develop strategies that increase their risk-taking in gambling. Time perspective (TP) is a good indicator of risky behaviours in a number of different areas, including health and the environment. In the present study, we sought to identify the age-specific cognitive mechanisms underlying gambling behaviour in normal ageing. We asked 115 emerging adults (mean age = 20.86 years), 86 young adults (mean age = 30.59), 82 middle-aged adults (mean age = 44.57) and 108 seniors (mean age = 65.19) to play an online game. We rated their illusion of control, risk-taking and TP. Analysis revealed that seniors took more risks and had less illusion of control than younger adults. The fatalistic-present TP positively influenced the illusion of control, such that perceiving the present as being determined by uncontrollable forces increased the perceived level of control. Finally, we found an influence of age on TP. These results suggest that seniors constitute a specific population in terms of gambling-related cognitions and behaviours. Including TP in risky behaviour assessments would allow the development of tailor-made preventive measures.

Not giving up: Testosterone promotes persistence against a stronger opponent

Recent research suggests that when we lack a sense of control, we are prone to motivational failures and early quitting in competitions. Testosterone, on the other hand, is thought to boost competitiveness. Here we investigate the interaction between these factors, testing the testosterone's potential to enhance persistence in a competition against a stronger opponent, depending on experimentally manipulated perceived control. Healthy participants were administered a single dose of testosterone or placebo. They first underwent a task designed to either induce low or high perceived control and then entered a costly competition against a progressively stronger opponent that they could quit at any time. In the placebo group, men with low perceived control quitted twice as early as those with high perceived control. Testosterone countered this effect, making individuals with low control persist in the competition for as long as those with high perceived control, and did so also despite raising participants' explicit awareness of the opponents' advantage. This psychoendocrinological effect was not modulated by basal cortisol levels, CAG repeat polymorphism of the androgen receptor gene, or trait dominance. Our results provide the first causal evidence that testosterone promotes competitive persistence in humans and demonstrate that this effect depends on the psychological state elicited prior to the competition, broadening our understanding of the complex relationships between testosterone and social behaviors.

The Impact of Behavioral Biases on Herding Behavior of Investors in Islamic Financial Products

The study aimed to investigate the impact of behavioral biases on herding for Islamic financial products with the mediation of shariah literacy. An adopted questionnaire from several published studies was used to collect data. The data were collected from 410 respondents and were analyzed with SmartPLS. The results for the direct impact showed that self-attribution, illusion of control, and information availability have a positive and significant impact on herding for Islamic financial products while shariah literacy showed an insignificant impact on herding. The results for mediation showed that previously significant and positive impact turned to insignificant when shariah literacy was introduced as mediating variable between the illusion of control, self-attribution, information availability, and herding. From a theoretical perspective, this study would contribute to the existing body of knowledge of financial decision making from shariah literacy point-out. On the other hand, the findings of this study may be useful for investors to avoid herding in the Islamic financial markets. The authors synthesize the contribution made by behavioral finance studies in extending the knowledge of herding behavior in Islamic financial products with a mediating role of shariah literacy. The key limitation of the study includes data that were collected from three districts of Punjab, Pakistan.

"Should've known better": Counterfactual processing in disordered gambling

Counterfactual thinking is a component of human decision-making that entails "if only" thinking about unselected choices and outcomes. It is associated with strong emotional responses of regret (when the obtained outcome is inferior to the counterfactual) and relief (vice versa). Counterfactual thinking may play a role in various cognitive phenomena in disordered gambling, such as the effects of near-misses. This study compared individuals with gambling disorder (n = 46) and healthy controls (n = 25) on a behavioural economic choice task that entailed choosing between two gambles, designed to measure counterfactual thinking. Participants provided affect ratings following both the obtained and the non-obtained outcomes. Choices were analyzed using a computational model that derived parameters reflecting sensitivity to expected value, risk variance, and anticipated regret. In the computational choice model, the group with gambling disorder showed increased sensitivity to anticipated regret, reduced sensitivity to expected value, and increased preference for high risk-variance gambles. On the affect ratings, the group with gambling disorder displayed blunted emotional sensitivity to obtained and counterfactual outcomes. Effect sizes of the group differences were modest. Participants with gambling disorder show wide-ranging alterations in decision-making processes and emotional reactivity to choice outcomes. Altered sensitivity to anticipatory regret in gambling disorder may contribute to the development of gambling-related cognitive distortions, and the influences of gambling marketing.

Feeling in Control: The Role of Cardiac Timing in the Sense of Agency

The sense of agency describes the experience of controlling one’s body to cause desired effects in the world. We explored whether this is influenced by interoceptive processes. Specifically, we investigated whether the sense of agency changes depending on where, in the cardiac cycle (systole or diastole), the action was executed and where the outcome of the action occurred. In two experiments, participants completed decision-making task to win/lose money. Explicit (ratings of control) and implicit (temporal judgement) measures of agency were differentially affected by cardiovascular state. Implicit agency scores were affected by the cardiac phase at the point of action execution. Explicit ratings of control were affected by the type of (free vs. instructed) and by outcome valence (win vs. lose). The time of the action was uniformly distributed across the cardiac cycle. These results show interoceptive impact on agency, but that cardiac cycle may affect explicit and implicit agency differently.

Inducing illusory control ensures persistence when rewards fade and when others outperform us

Persisting even when the rewards of continued effort are fading is essential for achieving long-term goals, skills, and good health, alike. Yet, we often quit when things get hard. Here, we tested whether augmenting the feeling of control through external measures increases persistence under such discouraging circumstances. In two laboratory experiments, we first induced illusory control by manipulating the base-rate of positive outcomes and then tested the effect of this elevation of participants' perceived control upon their persistence under diminishing returns and in a competition against a stronger opponent. Induced illusory control significantly enhanced people's persistence in both of these motivationally challenging situations. Our findings demonstrate that motivation is dependent upon perceived, rather than objective, control, and reveal that this can be leveraged to counteract quitting behavior when things get hard, for instance in rehabilitation, physical activity interventions, or other training settings.

Dopaminergic signaling of uncertainty and the aetiology of gambling addiction

Although there is increasing clinical recognition of behavioral addictions, of which gambling disorder is the prototype example, there is a limited understanding of the psychological properties of (non-substance-related) behaviors that enable them to become 'addictive' in a way that is comparable to drugs of abuse. According to an influential application of reinforcement learning to substance addictions, the direct effects of drugs to release dopamine can create a perpetual escalation of incentive salience. This article focusses on reward uncertainty, which is proposed to be the core feature of gambling that creates the capacity for addiction. We describe the neuro-dynamics of the dopamine response to uncertainty that may allow a similar escalation of incentive salience, and its relevance to behavioral addictions. We review translational evidence from both preclinical animal models and human clinical research, including studies in people with gambling disorder. Further, we describe the evidence for 1) the effects of the omission of expected reward as a stressor and to promote sensitization, 2) the effect of the resolution of reward uncertainty as a source of value, 3) structural characteristics of modern Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs) in leveraging these mechanisms, 4) analogies to the aberrant salience hypothesis of psychosis for creating and maintaining gambling-related cognitive distortions. This neurobiologically-inspired model has implications for harm profiling of other putative behavioral addictions, as well as offering avenues for enhancing neurological, pharmacological and psychological treatments for gambling disorder, and harm reduction strategies for EGM design.

Three dimensions of desirability of control: divergent relations with psychological and physical well-being

Objective: To examine unique relations of three distinct dimensions of desirability of control with psychological and physical well-being and coping. Design: Study 1 (n = 122) surveyed undergraduates' response to everyday stressors, and Study 2 (n = 105) examined undergraduates' adjustment to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks at 1 and 3 months post-attack. Main outcome measures included psychological distress, perceived stress, rumination, health behaviors, alcohol use and active vs. avoidant coping. Study 1 Results: Self- and other-control were associated with active coping, whereas relinquishing control was linked with avoidant coping. Only relinquishing control was uniquely linked with outcomes, including worse psychological and physical well-being and alcohol use; avoidant coping mediated relations to psychological well-being. Study 2 Results: Again, self-control was associated with active coping whereas relinquishing control was linked with avoidant coping. Self-control was associated with enhanced psychological well-being at T1 and increases in well-being over time; by contrast, relinquishing control was associated with worse T1 psychological well-being, which was mediated by avoidant coping. Conclusion: This is the first study to examine the unique contribution of each DOC dimension with outcomes. Self-control and relinquishing control showed divergent relations to psychological well-being, mediated by different coping pathways.

My future is brighter than yours: the positivity bias in episodic future thinking and future self-images

Numerous studies on episodic future thinking have demonstrated that individuals perceive their future as more positive and idyllic than their past. It has been suggested that this positivity bias might serve a self-enhancement function. Yet, conflicting findings and lack of systematic studies on the generalizability of the phenomenon leave this interpretation uncertain. We provide the first systematic examination of the positivity bias across different domains and tasks of future thinking. First, we use the same tasks in two different domains of future thinking, representing an episodic (events) and a semantic dimension (self-images), respectively. Second, we use two different measures of positivity bias (i.e., frequency of positive versus negative instances and their distance from present). Third, we contrast each measure in each domain for events/self-images related to self versus an acquaintance. Experiments 1 and 2 showed a strong, general tendency for the generation of positive future events/self-images, but most pronounced for self, relative to an acquaintance. Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrated that positive future events/self-images were dated closer to present, whereas negative ones were pushed further into the future, but only for self and not for an acquaintance. Our results support the idea that the positivity bias in future thinking serves a self-enhancement function and that this bias likely represents a similar underlying motivational mechanism across different domains of future thinking, whether episodic or semantic. The findings add to our understanding of the motivational functions served by different forms of future thoughts in relation to the self.

Persistence of repeated self-reported illusion of control as a product of action and outcome association in productive and preventive scenarios

Individuals interpret themselves as causal agents when executing an action to achieve an outcome, even when action and outcome are independent. How can illusion of control be managed? Once established, does it decay? This study aimed to analyze the effects of valence, probability of the outcome [p(O)] and probability of the actions performed by the participant [p(A)], on the magnitude of judgments of control and corresponding associative measures (including Rescorla-Wagner's, Probabilistic Contrast, and Cheng's Power Probabilistic Contrast models). A traffic light was presented on a computer screen to 81 participants who tried to control the green or red lights by pressing the spacebar, after instructions describing a productive or a preventive scenario. There were 4 blocks of 50 trials under all of 4 different p(O)s in random order (0.10, 0.30, 0.70, and 0.90). Judgments were assessed in a bidimensional scale. The 2 × 4 × 4 mixed experimental design was analyzed through General Linear Models, including factor group (between-subject valence), and block and p(O) (within subjects). There was a small effect of group and a large and direct effect of p(O) on judgments. Illusion was reported by 66% of the sample and was positive in the productive group. The oscillation of p(O) produced stronger illusions; decreasing p(O)s produced nil or negative illusions. Only Rescorla-Wagner's could model causality properly. The reasons why p(A) and the other models could not generate significant results are discussed. The results help to comprehend the importance of keeping moderate illusions in productive and preventive scenarios.

Rise of the Machines: A Critical Review on the Behavioural Effects of Automating Traditional Gambling Games

Automated gambling products are now a common feature on many casino floors. Despite their increasing prevalence, little research has considered the impact of converting games traditionally free from technological enhancements to automated versions. This review seeks to illustrate how automation is likely to change the way people engage and experience traditional games based around five prominent modifications: visual and auditory enhancements; illusions of control; cognitive complexity; expedited play; and social customisation. Otherwise known as the "VICES" framework. The inclusion of rich graphics, event-dependent sound and game-play information such as statistics, history, betting options and strategic betting are likely to prolong and entice gambling while encouraging more intense betting. Changes to the social environment due to the asocial nature of automated products is also likely to significantly change the gambling experience. Given the increasing prevalence of these products in the marketplace, it is important to consider the implications of converting traditional products to automated form as technological enhancements have the potential to allow for faster, more intense betting. More research is needed to determine the full impact of automation on player behaviours in order to understand the potential risks associated with technological enhancements to traditional games.

Confirmatory factor analysis of the Spanish version of the Gamblers' Beliefs Questionnaire in a sample of Argentinean gamblers

INTRODUCTION

Cognitive distortions are related to gambling frequency and gambling severity. Having a culturally sensitive measure to assess cognitive distortions will facilitate the early detection of people who might be at risk of developing problematic gambling behaviors. The Gamblers' Beliefs Questionnaire was translated into Spanish (GBQ-S) but no previous study explored the structure of the GBQ-S in a non-US sample with different levels of gambling involvement.

AIM

The present study examined the factor structure of the GBQ-S in a community sample of gamblers from Argentina. It also analyzed the association between cognitive distortions and type of gambling activity and frequency of gambling behaviors and the predictive utility of the GBQ-S on gambling severity.

PARTICIPANTS

508 youth and adults completed the GBQ-S.

RESULTS

The CFA showed an overall acceptable fit to the data confirming the proposed two-factor model. Scores of the two GBQ sub-scales were positively and significantly correlated with scores on gambling severity. Cognitive distortions have a significant effect on gambling severity after controlling for frequency of engagement in gambling activities. Luck and perseverance, but not illusion of control, was positively related to gambling severity.

DISCUSSION

scores measured by the GBQ-S exhibit adequate psychometric properties for the accurate assessment of cognitive distortions across adults and youth from the general community of Argentina.

Crimping the Croupier: Electronic and mechanical automation of table, community and novelty games in Australia

Technological innovation has increased electronic and mechanical automation to traditional games that replace or augment human croupiers, and also change how the games are enjoyed. Little is known about how these automated products may influence people's gambling or entice new players to try these table and community games. Research regarding the characteristics of electronic gaming machines (EGMs) has provided insights into the potential consequences associated with technological enhancements. However, without knowing how these products differ to their traditional counterparts, it is difficult to begin to understand their implications on player expenditures and product safety. An Australian national environmental scan of these electronically and mechanically enhanced table-game and community-game products was conducted to identify the characteristics of these automated products Australia-wide. Based on EGM research (Armstrong & Rockloff, 2015), the "VICES" framework was identified as an appropriate organising principle for surveying the features of automated products. The VICES acronym specifies 5 criteria by which automated products might differ from traditional table-games: (v)isual and auditory enhancements, (i)llusion of control, (c)ognitive complexity, (e)xpedited play, and (s)ocial customisation. The findings suggest that automation provides the potential for the provision of products that intensify gambling engagement with the attendant potential for gambling-related harm. Further research, however, is needed to find if this potential harm is manifest in real-world gambling environments.

Let me take the wheel: Illusory control and sense of agency

Illusory control refers to an effect in games of chance where features associated with skilful situations increase expectancies of success. Past work has operationalized illusory control in terms of subjective ratings or behaviour, with limited consideration of the relationship between these definitions, or the broader construct of agency. This study used a novel card-guessing task in 78 participants to investigate the relationship between subjective and behavioural illusory control. We compared trials in which participants (a) had no opportunity to exercise illusory control, (b) could exercise illusory control for free, or (c) could pay to exercise illusory control. Contingency Judgment and Intentional Binding tasks assessed explicit and implicit sense of agency, respectively. On the card-guessing task, confidence was higher when participants exerted control than in the baseline condition. In a complementary model, participants were more likely to exercise control when their confidence was high, and this effect was accentuated in the pay condition relative to the free condition. Decisions to pay were positively correlated with control ratings on the Contingency Judgment task, but were not significantly related to Intentional Binding. These results establish an association between subjective and behavioural illusory control and locate the construct within the cognitive literature on agency.

Disordered gambling: the evolving concept of behavioral addiction

The reclassification of gambling disorder within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) addictions category marks an important step for addiction science. The similarities between gambling disorder and the substance use disorders have been well documented. As gambling is unlikely to exert actively damaging effects on the brain, the cognitive sequelae of gambling disorder may provide insights into addictive vulnerabilities; this idea is critically evaluated in light of recent structural imaging data. The second part of the review analyzes a fundamental question of how a behavior can become addictive in the absence of exogenous drug stimulation. The relative potency of drug and nondrug rewards is considered, alongside evidence that cognitive distortions in the processing of chance (for example, the illusion of control and the gambler's fallacy) may constitute an important added ingredient in gambling. Further understanding of these mechanisms at neural and behavioral levels will be critical for the classification of future behavioral addictions, and I consider the current research data for obesity and binge eating, compulsive shopping, and internet gaming disorder.

Striatal connectivity changes following gambling wins and near-misses: Associations with gambling severity

Frontostriatal circuitry is implicated in the cognitive distortions associated with gambling behaviour. 'Near-miss' events, where unsuccessful outcomes are proximal to a jackpot win, recruit overlapping neural circuitry with actual monetary wins. Personal control over a gamble (e.g., via choice) is also known to increase confidence in one's chances of winning (the 'illusion of control'). Using psychophysiological interaction (PPI) analyses, we examined changes in functional connectivity as regular gamblers and non-gambling participants played a slot-machine game that delivered wins, near-misses and full-misses, and manipulated personal control. We focussed on connectivity with striatal seed regions, and associations with gambling severity, using voxel-wise regression. For the interaction term of near-misses (versus full-misses) by personal choice (participant-chosen versus computer-chosen), ventral striatal connectivity with the insula, bilaterally, was positively correlated with gambling severity. In addition, some effects for the contrast of wins compared to all non-wins were observed at an uncorrected (p < .001) threshold: there was an overall increase in connectivity between the striatal seeds and left orbitofrontal cortex and posterior insula, and a negative correlation for gambling severity with the connectivity between the right ventral striatal seed and left anterior cingulate cortex. These findings corroborate the 'non-categorical' nature of reward processing in gambling: near-misses and full-misses are objectively identical outcomes that are processed differentially. Ventral striatal connectivity with the insula correlated positively with gambling severity in the illusion of control contrast, which could be a risk factor for the cognitive distortions and loss-chasing that are characteristic of problem gambling.