A predictive model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver failure, or liver transplantation for patients presenting to clinic with chronic hepatitis C

Low-Cost Predictors for Liver Function and Clinical Outcomes after Sustained Virological Response in Patients with HCV-Related Cirrhosis and Thrombocytopenia

Background and Objectives: To find low-cost markers that can identify the hepatitis C virus cirrhotic patients that are at risk for long-term severe adverse liver effects (ascites, ascites or upper gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatocellular carcinoma), after treatment. There is established evidence for the benefits of treating hepatitis C virus cirrhotic patients, but there is still some need for clarification concerning the real impact on the long-term evolution after achieving sustained virological response; there is no general consensus in the literature about identifying the patients that do not improve post-treatment. Materials and Methods: Our retrospective analysis investigated the long-term (2 years) evolution of 46 patients with cirrhosis with thrombocytopenia, previously infected with VHC, treated and who obtained an SVR after DAA treatment. Results: Despite the overall improvement, 8.7% patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma and 6.5% patients ascites/upper GI bleeding. We found that FIB-4, MELD and AFP changes at 1 year were the most significant predictors for these outcomes. Additionally, a drop in leukocyte count after 1 year seemed to indicate a risk for hepatocellular carcinoma, but this was not consistent. Conclusions: It might be beneficial to intensify the surveillance for post-treatment adverse liver effects for the patients with these marker changes at 1 year.

Serum sphingosine negatively correlates with albumin predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The roles of sphingosine in various cancers have not been fully investigated. Our aim was to identify the relationship between serum sphingosine and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Serum sphingosine in 34 normal people and 73 HCC patients were reviewed retrospectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the cut-off values of sphingosine in the serum. Chi-square test, t test and regression analysis were used to test the association between serum sphingosine and individual clinicopathologic parameters.

RESULTS

Serum sphingosine was higher in HCC patients (155.91±331.5 ng/mL) with normal persons as the control (30.92±29.4 ng/mL). The sphingosine threshold according to ROC curve was set at 22.5 ng/mL with a sensitivity of 74%, and a specificity of 55.9%. Meanwhile, sphingosine in HCC patients with abnormal albumin was significantly higher than that in patients with normal albumin (t=2.452, P=0.019). When HCC patients were divided into two groups serum sphingosine was negatively associated with albumin in HCC patients (χ²=4.469, P=0.035). Moreover, the logistic regression analysis showed that large tumor size (P=0.018, OR=0.13) and a low albumin (P=0.005, OR=8.856) were two independent risk factors for serum sphingosine upregulation. High AFP coupled with high serum sphingosine, high sphingosine and high AFP respectively were found in 91.2%, 75.4%, 73% of the HCC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that serum sphingosine could be treated as a marker for the risk of HCC. AFP and sphingosine in the serum could be used together for HCC diagnosis.

Carnosic acid impedes cell growth and enhances anticancer effects of carmustine and lomustine in melanoma

Carnosic acid (CA), a major polyphenolic diterpene present in Rosmarinus officinalis, has been reported to have multiple functions, including antitumor activity. The MTT assay, BrdU incorporation, wound healing, and colony formation were used to detect melanoma B16F10 cell growth and proliferation. Flow cytometry was used for cell cycle detection. p21 and p27 expression was detected by Western blotting. B16F10 cell xenograft model was established, and treated with CA, carmustine (BCNU), or lomustine (CCNU). The present study found that CA exhibits significant growth inhibition and cell cycle arrest in melanoma B16F10 cells. We also found that CA triggers cell cycle arrest at G0/G1 phase, and enhances p21 expression. Additionally, CA can enhance BCNU- and CCNU-mediated cytotoxicity and cell cycle arrest in B16F10 cells. Finally, we found that CA inhibits tumor growth, and reduces the values of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in vivo The present study study concluded that CA may be safe and useful as a novel chemotherapeutic agent.

A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting.

AIM

Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk.

RESULTS

Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87).

CONCLUSION

This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

APASL consensus statements and recommendations for hepatitis C prevention, epidemiology, and laboratory testing

The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) convened an international working party on "APASL consensus statements and recommendations for management of hepatitis C" in March 2015 to revise the "APASL consensus statements and management algorithms for hepatitis C virus infection" (Hepatol Int 6:409-435, 2012). The working party consisted of expert hepatologists from the Asian-Pacific region gathered at the Istanbul Congress Center, Istanbul, Turkey on 13 March 2015. New data were presented, discussed, and debated during the course of drafting a revision. Participants of the consensus meeting assessed the quality of the cited studies. The finalized recommendations for hepatitis C prevention, epidemiology, and laboratory testing are presented in this review.

The Natural History of Hepatit is C Viral Infection: Clinical Evaluation and Monitoring

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the most common causes of chronic liver disease in the world and represents a substantial burden on global health systems and individual patient wellbeing. Routine screening for HCV in certain high-risk populations is appropriate. HCV can cause both an acute and chronic hepatitis, and manifests as a variety of hepatic and extrahepatic symptoms, largely influenced by a combination of host and viral factors. It can be difficult to predict clinical outcomes in individual cases. In those who suffer a chronic infection, progression to cirrhosis carries the risk of decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma. The natural history of HCV infection and our understanding of risk factors that are predictive of disease progression are discussed.

Diagnostic and mechanistic implications of serum free light chains, albumin and alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Mass spectroscopy analysis suggested low serum albumin and high immunoglobulin free light chain (sFLC) levels may have diagnostic value in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aims were to apply quantitative assays to confirm these observations, determine their diagnostic utility, and investigate the mechanisms involved.

METHODS

Albumin, sFLC, routine liver and renal function tests were measured in patients with chronic liver disease with (n=102) and without (n=113) HCC. The discriminant performance was compared with the current standard serological test alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analyses.

RESULTS

sFLC and serum albumin were each confirmed to have discriminatory utility in HCC with AUC values of 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. sFLC were strongly correlated with gammaglobulin levels and both these were inversely related to serum albumin levels. The discriminatory utility of sFLC was retained after adjusting for renal and liver function.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum levels of sFLC and albumin were strongly associated with HCC as predicted by mass spectroscopy. Discrimination of HCC by AFP was improved by the addition of either albumin or sFLC. Larger prospective studies are required to determine how AFP, sFLC and albumin might be combined in a useful diagnostic approach for HCC.

Predictive factors of risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors associated with the development of HCC and develop a score to identify high risk subgroups.

METHODS

We conducted a follow-up study, with biannual ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein screening, in an unselected cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis C referred for evaluation from the primary care.

RESULTS

863 patients with chronic hepatitis C were followed for an average of 82 months. 58 patients have developed HCC (7%). 34 (4%) patients were excluded from analysis due to detection of liver cancer at first evaluation. The demographic and clinical variables collected during the first 6 months of evaluation were analyzed retrospectively. Cox proportional multivariate regression analysis identified four independent factors related with HCC risk; age, alpha-fetoprotein level, gammaglobulin level and platelet count below 150,000/ml. A risk score formula (HCC-4) was constructed which lets us identify patients with low (annual incidence of 0.05%), intermediate (annual incidence of 0.6%) and high (annual incidence 2.6%) risk of HCC development with an area under the curve of 0.802.

CONCLUSION

The application of the score to the cohort let us identify a high-risk subgroup of patients with an annual HCC incidence of 2.6%, in which the screening would be cost-effective.

Thyroid disease in chronic hepatitis C infection treated with combination interferon-α and ribavirin: management strategies and future perspective

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major epidemics afflicting young people in both developed and developing countries. The most common endocrine disorder associated with this infection, especially in conjunction with interferon-α (IFN-α)-based therapy, is thyroid disease (TD). This review examines the development of TD before, during, and after the completion of treatment with combination IFN-α and ribavirin (RBV) for chronic HCV infection. We also summarize the current understanding of the natural history of the condition and propose management and follow-up guidelines.

METHODS

PubMed was searched up to June 30, 2011 for English-language publications that contained the search terms "hepatitis C virus," "chronic hepatitis C," "HCV," "thyroid disease," "thyroiditis," "autoimmunity," "interferon-alpha," and "ribavirin." Additional publications were identified from the reference lists of identified papers. The included studies were original research publications and included combination IFN-α and RBV use in patients that developed TD.

RESULTS

The prevalence of TD before combination IFN-α and RBV therapy ranges from 4.6 to 21.3%; during therapy, 1.1 to 21.3%; and after therapy, 6.7 to 21.3%. The most common TD is thyroiditis. Thyroid function testing (TFT) frequency and diagnostic criteria for various thyroid conditions are not standardized, and many of the existing studies are retrospective.

CONCLUSION

Patients undergoing this therapy should be assessed with a standardized protocol to appropriately detect and manage developed TD. Based on the currently available literature, we recommend that patients receiving combination interferon-α and RBV therapy undergo monthly thyrotropin (TSH) level testing.

Data mining model using simple and readily available factors could identify patients at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Assessment of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is essential for formulating personalized surveillance or antiviral treatment plan for chronic hepatitis C. We aimed to build a simple model for the identification of patients at high risk of developing HCC.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C patients followed for at least 5 years (n=1003) were analyzed by data mining to build a predictive model for HCC development. The model was externally validated using a cohort of 1072 patients (472 with sustained virological response (SVR) and 600 with nonSVR to PEG-interferon plus ribavirin therapy).

RESULTS

On the basis of factors such as age, platelet, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase, the HCC risk prediction model identified subgroups with high-, intermediate-, and low-risk of HCC with a 5-year HCC development rate of 20.9%, 6.3-7.3%, and 0-1.5%, respectively. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed through external validation (r(2)=0.981). The 10-year HCC development rate was also significantly higher in the high-and intermediate-risk group than in the low-risk group (24.5% vs. 4.8%; p<0.0001). In the high-and intermediate-risk group, the incidence of HCC development was significantly reduced in patients with SVR compared to those with nonSVR (5-year rate, 9.5% vs. 4.5%; p=0.040).

CONCLUSIONS

The HCC risk prediction model uses simple and readily available factors and identifies patients at a high risk of HCC development. The model allows physicians to identify patients requiring HCC surveillance and those who benefit from IFN therapy to prevent HCC.

National Academy of Clinical Biochemistry Laboratory Medicine Practice Guidelines for use of tumor markers in liver, bladder, cervical, and gastric cancers

BACKGROUND

Updated National Academy of Clinical Biochemistry Laboratory Medicine Practice Guidelines for the use of tumor markers in the clinic have been developed.

METHODS

Published reports relevant to use of tumor markers for 4 cancer sites--liver, bladder, cervical, and gastric--were critically reviewed.

RESULTS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) may be used in conjunction with abdominal ultrasound for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B or C virus infection. AFP concentrations >200 microg/L in cirrhotic patients with typical hypervascular lesions >2 cm in size are consistent with HCC. After a diagnosis of HCC, posttreatment monitoring with AFP is recommended as an adjunct to imaging, especially in the absence of measurable disease. Although several urine markers have been proposed for bladder cancer, none at present can replace routine cystoscopy and cytology in the management of patients with this malignancy. Some may, however, be used as complementary adjuncts to direct more effective use of clinical procedures. Although carcinoembryonic antigen and CA 19-9 have been proposed for use gastric cancer and squamous cell carcinoma antigen for use in cervical cancer, none of these markers can currently be recommended for routine clinical use.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of these recommendations should encourage optimal use of tumor markers for patients with liver, bladder, cervical, or gastric cancers.

Hepatitis C virus genotype 1b as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma development: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a known risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but whether the risk varies among patients infected with different HCV genotypes is still controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to clarify whether the genotype 1b is associated with a higher risk of HCC than other genotypes.

METHODS

We identified 57 relevant papers through a literature search to December 2007 but, since age could represent a major confounder, we focused the meta-analysis on the 21 studies presenting age-adjusted risk estimates for HCV genotype 1b vs. other genotypes. We used random-effects models with the DerSimonian-Laird method and assessed heterogeneity between studies and publication bias.

RESULTS

Patients infected with HCV genotype 1b have almost double the risk to develop HCC than those infected with other genotypes (Relative Risk (95% Confidence Intervals) = 1.78(1.36-2.32)). The pooled risk estimate was somewhat lower when we restricted the analysis to the eight studies conducted in patients with liver cirrhosis (1.60;1.07-2.39) or considering the 36 studies presenting only crude data (1.63;1.30-2.06). In seven studies excluding patients with liver cirrhosis, the RR (95% CI) increased to 2.46(1.69-3.59).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis suggests that HCV genotype 1b plays an important role in HCC development, especially in patients with early stage liver disease.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and associated risk factors in hepatitis C-related advanced liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the United States, data from large prospective studies are limited. We evaluated the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment Against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) cohort for the incidence of HCC and associated risk factors.

METHODS

Hepatitis C virus-positive patients with bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis who did not respond to peginterferon and ribavirin were randomized to groups that were given maintenance peginterferon for 3.5 years or no treatment. HCC incidence was determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and baseline factors associated with HCC were analyzed by Cox regression.

RESULTS

1,005 patients (mean age, 50.2 years; 71% male; 72% white race) were studied; 59% had bridging fibrosis, and 41% had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 4.6 years (maximum, 6.7 years), HCC developed in 48 patients (4.8%). The cumulative 5-year HCC incidence was similar for peginterferon-treated patients and controls, 5.4% vs 5.0%, respectively (P= .78), and was higher among patients with cirrhosis than those with bridging fibrosis, 7.0% vs 4.1%, respectively (P= .08). HCC developed in 8 (17%) patients whose serial biopsy specimens showed only fibrosis. A multivariate analysis model comprising older age, black race, lower platelet count, higher alkaline phosphatase, esophageal varices, and smoking was developed to predict the risk of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that maintenance peginterferon did not reduce the incidence of HCC in the HALT-C cohort. Baseline clinical and laboratory features predicted risk for HCC. Additional studies are required to confirm our finding of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C and bridging fibrosis.

Infectious Agents

There is substantial evidence that infectious agents play a causal role in a variety of human malignancies. These cancers include the liver, cervix, stomach, nasopharynx, bladder, and bile duct as well as Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and several lymphomas. This chapter summarizes the biological and epidemiologic features of each of the major oncogenic infections, beginning with the viruses, followed by H. pylori, and with a brief summary of the relevant parasites.

Liver enzyme alteration: a guide for clinicians

Isolated alterations of biochemical markers of liver damage in a seemingly healthy patient can present a challenge for the clinician. In this review we provide a guide to interpreting alterations to liver enzyme levels. The functional anatomy of the liver and pathophysiology of liver enzyme alteration are briefly reviewed. Using a schematic approach that classifies enzyme alterations as predominantly hepatocellular or predominantly cholestatic, we review abnormal enzymatic activity within the 2 subgroups, the most common causes of enzyme alteration and suggested initial investigations.

Factors associated with severity of hepatic fibrosis in people with chronic hepatitis C infection

OBJECTIVE

To determine factors associated with hepatic fibrosis development in people with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

As a requirement for access to interferon therapy through the S100 scheme in Australia, individual pretreatment demographic and clinical information was collected on 2986 patients from 61 hospital-based liver clinics from 1 October 1994 through 31 December 1996. Patients with both a hepatic fibrosis score and an estimated duration of HCV infection (910) were divided into 540 with no or minimal hepatic fibrosis (stage 0-1) and 370 with moderate to severe hepatic fibrosis (stage 2-3). Seven factors were examined: age at HCV infection, sex, ethnicity, source of infection, duration of infection, alcohol intake, and mean ALT level. A further analysis was performed for all 1135 patients with a hepatic fibrosis score disregarding age at and duration of HCV infection.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, four factors were significantly associated with moderate to severe hepatic fibrosis: age at infection (OR, 2.33 for age 31-40 years, 5.27 for age > 40 years, and 0.20 for age < 15 years, compared with 15-20 years); duration of infection (OR, 1.44 for 11-20 years, 2.74 for 21-30 years, and 8.71 for > 30 years, compared with < 11 years); alcohol intake in previous six months (OR, 1.51 for any intake, compared with none); and mean ALT level (OR, 1.81 for 2-3 times, 2.27 for > 3 times, compared with 1.5-2 times the upper limit of normal). In the analysis disregarding age at HCV infection and duration of HCV infection, older age was strongly associated with moderate to severe hepatic fibrosis (OR, 2.32 for age 36-40 years, 2.46 for age 41-50 years, 7.87 for age 51-60 years, and 7.15 for age > 60 years, compared with 16-30 years). There was no association in either analysis with sex or source of HCV infection.

CONCLUSION

These factors may assist in targeting patients for both liver biopsy-based investigation and therapeutic intervention.

Diagnosis and Monitoring of Hepatic Injury. I. Performance Characteristics of Laboratory Tests

Purpose: To review information on performance characteristics for tests that are commonly used to identify acute and chronic hepatic injury.

Data Sources and Study Selection: A MEDLINE search was performed for key words related to hepatic tests, including quality specifications, aminotransferases, alkaline phosphatase, γ-glutamyltransferase, bilirubin, albumin, ammonia, and viral markers. Abstracts were reviewed, and articles discussing performance of laboratory tests were selected for review. Additional articles were selected from the references.

Guideline Preparation and Review: Drafts of the guidelines were posted on the Internet, presented at the AACC Annual Meeting in 1999, and reviewed by experts. Areas requiring further amplification or literature review were identified for further analysis. Specific recommendations were made based on analysis of published data and evaluated for strength of evidence and clinical impact. The drafts were also reviewed by the Practice Guidelines Committee of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and approved by the committee and the Association’s Council.

Recommendations: Although many specific recommendations are made in the guidelines, some summary recommendations are discussed here. Alanine aminotransferase is the most important test for recognition of acute and chronic hepatic injury. Performance goals should aim for total error of &lt;10% at the upper reference limit to meet clinical needs in monitoring patients with chronic hepatic injury. Laboratories should have age-adjusted reference limits for enzymes in children, and gender-adjusted reference limits for aminotransferases, γ-glutamyltransferase, and total bilirubin in adults. The international normalized ratio should not be the sole method for reporting results of prothrombin time in liver disease; additional research is needed to determine the reporting mechanism that best correlates with functional impairment. Harmonization is needed for alanine aminotransferase activity, and improved standardization for hepatitis C viral RNA measurements.