Seasonal variations in variceal bleeding mortality and hospitalization in France

Association between air temperature and emergency admission for esophagogastric variceal bleeding: a case-crossover study in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies concerning the impact of air temperature on esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) have yielded conflicting results. Our study aimed to evaluate the correlation between air temperature and EGVB.

METHODS

A time-stratified case-crossover study design was performed. Patients received emergency gastroscopic hemostasis for upper gastrointestinal bleeding between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2018 in the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital were enrolled. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the association between air temperature and EGVB for different lag structures.

RESULTS

A total of 4204 cirrhotic patients diagnosed with EGVB and received emergency gastroscopic hemostasis were enrolled. The mean number of daily EGVB cases peaked in October (2.65 ± 1.69) and fell to the lowest level in July (1.86 ± 1.38), and was 2.38 ± 1.58 in spring, 2.00 ± 1.46 in summer, 2.37 ± 1.58 in autumn, and 2.45 ± 1.58 in winter, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conditional logistic regression analysis, no significant correlations between air temperature and EGVB were observed and no significant difference were found when stratified by age, sex, etiology, liver cancer status, and grade of varices.

CONCLUSION

Emergency admission for EGVB showed significant monthly and seasonal fluctuations, while in conditional logistic regression analysis, no association between minimum temperature and emergency admission for EGVB were observed.

Seasonal Impacts on the Incidence of Esophageal Variceal Hemorrhage: A Nationwide Analysis across a Decade

Background/Aims

Seasonal variation has previously been reported in relation to the incidence of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding; however, the impact of seasonal variation on variceal bleeding is not known.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database from 2005 to 2014. International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification- 9th Revision codes were used to identify patients hospitalized with a primary or secondary diagnosis of esophageal variceal hemorrhage. The data were analyzed based on the month of hospitalization. Our primary aim was to assess seasonal variations in variceal bleeding-related hospitalizations. The secondary aims were to assess the impact of seasonal variation on outcomes in variceal bleeding including in-hospital mortality and healthcare resource utilization.

Results

A total of 348,958 patients hospitalized with esophageal variceal bleeding were included. The highest number of hospitalizations was reported in December (99.3/day) and the lowest was reported in June (90.8/day). In-hospital mortality was highest in January (11.5%) and lowest in June (9.8%). There was no significant difference in hospital length of stay or total hospitalization costs across all months in all years combined.

Conclusions

There appears to be a seasonal variation in the incidence and mortality of variceal hemorrhage in the United States. December was the month with the highest number of daily hospitalizations while the nadir occurred in June.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not independently increase risk of death in high model for end stage liver disease patients

Physicians often exclude patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 from a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure due to the concern for higher risk of death. We aimed to determine if TIPS increased the risk of death in these patients. We analyzed the interaction between TIPS and MELD in 106 patients with TIPS and 79 with intractable ascites without TIPS. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression, including both TIPS and MELD as time-dependent covariates together with their interaction, to calculate the impact of TIPS on the risk of death associated with a high MELD score. We found a negative interaction between a high MELD score and a history of TIPS, with potentially important effect sizes. Patients with MELD scores ≥18 had a 51% lower incremental risk of death (lower risk than would be expected from the combined independent risks of MELD and needing/receiving TIPS) associated with TIPS than patients with MELD scores <18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-2.45) in the first 6 months following TIPS. There was an 80% lower incremental risk of death among patients with a MELD score ≥18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.23) 6 months after the TIPS procedure. Conclusion: Risk of death is associated with underlying disease severity as shown by the MELD score and the need for TIPS, and both history of TIPS and high MELD score independently increased the risk of mortality. However, the risk of death after TIPS was progressively lower than expected as the MELD score increased. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:460-468).

Low air temperature increases the risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding: a population and hospital-based case-crossover study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Studies concerning seasonal variations and the impact of air temperature on oesophageal variceal bleeding have yielded conflicting results. We aimed to explore the impact of air temperature on the occurrence of variceal bleeding.

METHODS

A case-crossover study design was employed, and two cohorts were used, including the NHI-EVB cohort from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2010, and the VGH-EVB cohort from the Taipei Veterans General Hospital, from 4 May 2002 to 31 December 2010. A conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

In total, 2542 cases from the NHI-EVB cohort and 220 cases from the VGH-EVB cohort were analysed. Our analysis showed that low air temperature (LAT) increased the risk of variceal bleeding regardless of age, sex, decompensated cirrhosis, Child-Pugh classification, aetiology of liver disease and concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma; the lag effect was also observed. The ORs per 5°C decrease in daily mean air temperature were 1.144 (95% CI, 1.060-1.235) for the NHI-EVB cohort and 1.307 (95% CI: 1.031-1.658) for the VGH-EVB cohort. Oesophageal variceal bleeding in patients with small varices, end-stage liver disease score ≧15 or those using non-selective beta blockers was not influenced by air temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients have higher risk of oesophageal variceal bleeding at low air temperature regardless of age, sex, aetiology of cirrhosis, Child-Pugh classification, decompensated cirrhosis and concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma and can be protected by use non-selective beta blockers.

Chronological, geographical, and seasonal trends of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Vietnam, 2003-2014: a spatial analysis

Background

Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection continue to occur in Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to identify when and where human H5N1 cases have occurred in Vietnam and how the situation has changed from the beginning of the H5N1 outbreaks in 2003 through 2014, to assist with implementing methods of targeted disease management.

Methods

We assessed the disease clustering and seasonal variation of human H5N1 cases in Vietnam to evaluate the geographical and monthly timing trends. The clustering of H5N1 cases and associated mortality were examined over three time periods: the outbreak period (2003–2005), the post-outbreak (2006–2009), and the recent period (2010–2014) using the flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic. The most likely cases to co-cluster and the elevated risks for incidence and mortality were assessed via calculation of the relative risk (RR). The H5N1 case seasonal variation was analysed as the cyclic trend in incidence data using Roger’s statistical test.

Results

Between 2003 and 2005, H5N1 cases (RR: 2.15, p = 0.001) and mortality (RR: 2.49, p = 0.021) were significantly clustered in northern Vietnam. After 2010, H5N1 cases tended to occur on the border with Cambodia in the south, while H5N1 mortality clustered significantly in the Mekong delta area (RR: 6.62, p = 0.002). A significant seasonal variation was observed (p < 0.001), with a higher incidence of morbidity in December through April.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that clinical preparedness for H5N1 in Vietnam needs to be strengthened in southern Vietnam in December–April.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1391-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: a study in 19 countries from different geographic locations

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality has been shown to follow a seasonal pattern. Several studies suggested several possible determinants of this pattern, including misclassification of causes of deaths. We aimed at assessing seasonality in overall, CVD, cancer and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality using data from 19 countries from different latitudes.

Methods and Findings

Monthly mortality data were compiled from 19 countries, amounting to over 54 million deaths. We calculated ratios of the observed to the expected numbers of deaths in the absence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal variation (peak to nadir difference) for overall and cause-specific (CVD, cancer or non-CVD/non-cancer) mortality was analyzed using the cosinor function model. Mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer showed a consistent seasonal pattern. In both hemispheres, the number of deaths was higher than expected in winter. In countries close to the Equator the seasonal pattern was considerably lower for mortality from any cause. For CVD mortality, the peak to nadir differences ranged from 0.185 to 0.466 in the Northern Hemisphere, from 0.087 to 0.108 near the Equator, and from 0.219 to 0.409 in the Southern Hemisphere. For cancer mortality, the seasonal variation was nonexistent in most countries.

Conclusions

In countries with seasonal variation, mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer show a seasonal pattern with mortality being higher in winter than in summer. Conversely, cancer mortality shows no substantial seasonality.

Temporal patterns in severe hemoptysis requiring bronchial artery embolization

Background

Although some authors have suggested that there is some seasonal periodicity in hemoptysis, temporal patterns of hemoptysis have been poorly investigated. The aim of this study is to describe the temporal pattern of severe hemoptysis which required bronchial artery embolization (BAE).

Methods

All consecutive patients with at least one episode of hemoptysis which required BAE during a 13-year period were included. Recurring hemoptysis requiring BAE in a patient with previous embolization was included as a new hemoptysis event, unless it occurred within one month from the prior event. Lineal regression was applied to compute the tendency of occurrence of cases along 13 years of record data. The daily and monthly distributions of embolizations were used to study the weekly and monthly seasonal indexes.

Results

Hemoptysis requiring BAE occurred with some monthly variation demonstrated with two monthly peaks, with the first one occurring during April and the second one during November.

Conclusion

Hemoptysis occurred with two monthly peaks. This seasonal trend might be due to different prevalence of respiratory tract infections or to some weather variables. Identification of significant environmental factors could be useful to improve preventive measures.

Effect of seasonal variation on the clinical course of chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Seasonal variation in immunity has been found in healthy individuals and in association with some diseases. It is still unknown whether seasonal variation affects the clinical course of chronic hepatitis B. Our aim in this study was to explore the effect of seasonal variation on the clinical course of chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

The flare and remission time of chronic hepatitis B were observed in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. All patients enrolled were followed up at least every 3 months for a mean follow-up time of 24.0 (range, 12-60) months. Seasonal decomposition was employed to analyze the relationship between seasonal variation and flares, remission, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in chronic hepatitis B patients during follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 2238 patients were observed in our study. Flare and HBeAg seroconversion were seldom seen in 1076 patients (48.08%) with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels of less than 2.0 x upper limit of normal (ULN) during follow-up (mean, 36 months). The remaining 1162 patients (51.92%) (766, HBeAg positive; 387 anti-HBeAg positive; 9 negative for both HBeAg and anti-HBeAg) with ALT levels >or=2.0 x ULN were followed longitudinally for 12 months to judge flare, remission, and HBeAg seroconversion. Flare, remission, and HBeAg seroconversion in patients with ALT levels >or=2.0 x ULN showed clear seasonal patterns (P < 0.001), with high peaks during spring, summer, and summer, respectively. An autocorrelation correlogram showed that flares, remission, and HBeAg seroconversion occurred with distinct periodicity in winter, spring, summer, and autumn.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal variation might affect the clinical course of chronic hepatitis B. The role of seasonal triggering factors should be further investigated.

Neue Epidemiologie der akuten gastrointestinalen Blutung

Due to progress in general medicine and especially in gastroenterology, the incidence of acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage could be expected to have decreased during the last 25 years. However, published epidemiological data cannot, in general, fulfill this hope. The interpretation of potential trends is, however, often limited by low study quality. For example, questionable bleeding sources such as erosions in the upper gastrointestinal tract or colon diverticula are often rather uncritically named the definitive causes of bleeding. However, there is clear evidence of changes in grouping of patients. After the almost complete disappearance of Helicobacter pylori in younger indigenous populations of most industrialized countries, it is mostly elderly comorbid people with additional risk factors (NSAID use, low-dose aspirin, anticoagulation) who are affected. Not unexpectedly, this group has generally experienced no change in incidence and in fact shows a deterioration of prognosis in case of acute bleeding.