Proposal of a modified Cancer of the Liver Italian Program staging system based on the model for end-stage liver disease for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy

Scoring systems for the management of oncological hepato-pancreato-biliary patients

Oncological scoring systems in surgery are used as evidence-based decision aids to best support management through assessing prognosis, effectiveness and recurrence. Currently, the use of scoring systems in the hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) field is limited as concerns over precision and applicability prevent their widespread clinical implementation. The aim of this review was to discuss clinically useful oncological scoring systems for surgical management of HPB patients. A narrative review was conducted to appraise oncological HPB scoring systems. Original research articles of established and novel scoring systems were searched using Google Scholar, PubMed, Cochrane, and Ovid Medline. Selected models were determined by authors. This review discusses nine scoring systems in cancers of the liver (CLIP, BCLC, ALBI Grade, RETREAT, Fong's score), pancreas (Genç's score, mGPS), and biliary tract (TMHSS, MEGNA). Eight models used exclusively objective measurements to compute their scores while one used a mixture of both subjective and objective inputs. Seven models evaluated their scoring performance in external populations, with reported discriminatory c-statistic ranging from 0.58 to 0.82. Selection of model variables was most frequently determined using a combination of univariate and multivariate analysis. Calibration, another determinant of model accuracy, was poorly reported amongst nine scoring systems. A diverse range of HPB surgical scoring systems may facilitate evidence-based decisions on patient management and treatment. Future scoring systems need to be developed using heterogenous patient cohorts with improved stratification, with future trends integrating machine learning and genetics to improve outcome prediction.

[Current Status of Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Liver Disease in Korea in MELD Era]

The organ allocation system should be fair and efficient to predict the prognosis of patients with end-stage organ failure. The liver allocation system in Korea was changed to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score system from Child-Turcotte-Pugh score-based status system in 2016. Since then, there have been some changes in matching liver graft to recipients in deceased liver transplantation. The severity of sickness of the end-stage liver failure patients has been increased in the MELD era than before. Since 2013, liver transplantation for alcoholic liver disease has been gradually increasing in Korea. We should take proper evaluation into consideration when we decide early liver transplantation particularly for patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis, who have a high MELD score. Above all, overcoming organ shortage, it is necessary for us to try to increase the number of deceased donors to meet the need for liver transplantation for end-stage liver disease patients.

An Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) Grade-based Prognostic Model For Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Within Milan Criteria

OBJECTIVE

The Milan criteria are recommended as the major reference for liver transplantation in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, alternative anticancer treatments are often utilized due to severe donor organ shortage. This study aimed to develop and validate an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based prognostic model to stratify survival in patients within Milan criteria undergoing nontransplant therapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 1655 patients were assigned into the derivation and validation cohort according to treatment modalities. Multivariate analysis was used to identify independent predictors of survival in the derivation cohort. An ALBI-based model was evaluated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the Cox multivariate model, age 65 years or older (hazard ratio [HR]=1.576, P<0.001), serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level >100 ng/mL (HR=1.671, P<0.001), ascites (HR=1.808, P<0.001), performance status 1 to 4 (HR=1.738, P<0.001), ALBI grade 2 (HR=1.827, P<0.001), and ALBI grade 3 (HR=3.589, P<0.001) were independent predictors of poor survival in the derivation cohort. An ALBI-based prognostic model with a total of 0 to 6 points was derived with the sum of 5 variables: 1 point each for age 65 years or older, AFP >100 ng/mL, presence of ascites, performance status 1 to 4, and ALBI grade 2, and 2 points for ALBI grade 3. This model can accurately predict long-term outcome in the validation cohort (P<0.001) and discriminate survival in patients stratified by curative and noncurative treatments (both P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The proposed ALBI grade-based model is feasible in predicting survival in HCC patients within the Milan criteria, and helps identify high-risk patients who need timely liver transplantation.

Albumin-bilirubin and platelet-albumin-bilirubin grades for hepatitis B-associated hepatocellular carcinoma in Child-Pugh A patients treated with radical surgery: A retrospective observational study

Child-Pugh (CP) grade A patients with early stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are candidates for curative surgery, while some patients still have a poor outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic values of 2 new evaluation models for liver function, named albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grades, in CP grade A patients with HCC.In this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed 134 cases of CP grade A patients with hepatitis B-associated HCC who underwent radical surgery. ALBI and PALBI grades were calculated based on preoperative serologic examinations. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression. The prognostic performances of the models were estimated by using the concordance index (C-index).During a median follow-up time of 27 months, 27.6% (37/134) of patients died and 26.1% (35/134) experienced recurrence. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that ALBI and PALBI grades were significantly associated with OS and RFS. Multivariate analyses further revealed that both ALBI and PALBI grades were independent predictors for survival. Furthermore, the prognostic values of the combination of tumor size with ALBI (C-index = 0.754, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.675-0.849) or with PALBI (C-index = 0.762, 95% CI: 0.664-0.844) may be comparable with both Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and Cancer of Liver Italian Program staging systems.The ALBI and PALBI grades, in particular the combination with tumor size, are effective models for discriminating survival in CP grade A patients with HCC.

Comparing various scoring system for predicting overall survival according to treatment modalities in hepatocellular carcinoma focused on Platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the ability of various grading scales including platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades to predict overall survival (OS) according to treatment modality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The cohort of 6,669 patients with HCC was selected randomly from the 2008-2012 national cohort of the Korean Central Cancer Registry. The OS of 6,507 of these patients was evaluated using the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and ALBI and PALBI grades.

RESULTS

The patient's mean age was 59.7 years. The most patients were hepatitis B virus (63.4%) and CTP class A (71.8%). The median OS durations of PALBI grade1 (38.4%), grade2 (33.2%), and grade3 (28.4%) patients were 81, 30, and 5 months, respectively (P<0.001). The PALBI grade had a larger area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) than did the CTP class, MELD score, and ALBI grade (overall AUC: 0.675 vs. 0.633, 0.645, and 0.642, respectively; P < 0.001). Moreover, the PALBI and ALBI grades enabled sub-classification of CTP A patients (P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, the PALBI and ALBI grades were significant risk factors for OS (P < 0.05). According to treatment modality, the PALBI grade was predictive of OS in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization or supportive care. The ALBI grade was predictive of OS in patients undergoing surgical resection or radiofrequency ablation.

CONCLUSION

The PALBI and ALBI grades are more reliable for accessing liver function and predicting OS in patients with HCC. Moreover, according to treatment modality, appropriate use of the ALBI and PALBI grades will enable accurate determination of the prognosis of patients with HCC.

Is there an optimal staging system or liver reserve model that can predict outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma?

Background

Many staging systems and liver reserve models have been proposed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis. However, there is no consensus as to which model provides the best prognostic value. We aimed to investigate the prognostic role of 8 noninvasive models including the albumin-bilirubin index (ALBI), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index (PALBI) in patients with HCC.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of 900 HCC patients. Patients who underwent transplantation were excluded. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival probabilities. Multivariate cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the survival trend. P<0.05 was considered significant. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to test the discriminatory power over 1- and 3-year mortality and recurrence.

Results

For predicting 1- and 3-year mortality, the CLIP score provided the highest AUC value, followed by the BCLC stage and the PALBI grade. For predicting 3-year recurrence, the CLIP score demonstrated the highest discriminative power followed by the PALBI grade, ALBI grade and BCLC system. However, all included models were found to be poor predictors for recurrence.

Conclusions

The CLIP score is more accurate prognostic model to predict mortality and recurrence than the BCLC stage. Regarding the liver reserve models, the PALBI is the most accurate prognostic models among 6 models to predict mortality and recurrence.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Seven Derivations to Prioritize Liver Transplant Candidates: Which Is the Winner?

OBJECTIVES

Under the present liver transplant policy, patients with the highest risk of death receive preference for organ placement. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and seven prognostic derivatives of this test for outcome prediction in cirrhotic patients on liver transplant wait lists.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included 416 patients (65.9% male; age 49 ± 13.9 years) who were entered to liver transplant wait lists from January 2013 to October 2016. Study endpoints were 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

All prognostic models had acceptable overall performances (0.12 < Brier score < 0.21). The MELD-to-serum sodium ratio test outperformed its counterparts at all 3 endpoints. Estimated C statistics ranged from 0.77 to 0.83. The largest value at 3 months was for the 5-variable MELD score (0.83), and the largest value at 6 months (0.82) and 1 year (0.83) was for the MELD-albumin score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots revealed underestimation for the entire range of predicted risk (P < .001). With decision curve analysis, the MELD-to-serum sodium ratio and United Kingdom Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scoring tests covered the most extensive range of optimal threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some derivations, including sodium and albumin, showed effective prioritization of liver transplant candidates, poor calibration statistics highlighted the need for a recalibration process as an inevitable prerequisite before daily clinical use of these tests at the individual level.

Prognostic Performance of Ten Liver Function Models in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Radiofrequency Ablation

Liver functional capacity is a crucial survival determinant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Noninvasive models were proposed to assess hepatic reserve, but their performance in outcome prediction is unclear. We aimed to investigate 10 currently used liver function models in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). A total 499 HCC patients were prospectively identified. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc) were compared. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent survival predictors. Significance survival differences were found across 10 noninvasive models (all p < 0.001) except for GUCI and APRI grade 2 vs 3, and King’s score grade 1 vs 2. Among these models, ALBI grade showed the highest homogeneity and lowest AICs value, indicating a better prognostic performance. Within Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score 5 group, significant survival difference was demonstrated between ALBI grade 1 and 2 (p < 0.001); for those with CTP score 6 or higher, only ALBI grade 2 and 3 showed survival difference (p < 0.001). Cox analysis disclosed that ALBI grade, tumor size and performance status were independent prognostic predictors. There was significant correlation between CTP score and other 9 models. We conclude that ALBI grade may serve as objective and feasible surrogate for prognostic prediction in HCC patients undergoing RFA.

ALBI and PALBI grade predict survival for HCC across treatment modalities and BCLC stages in the MELD Era

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The severity of liver dysfunction in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is often estimated with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification or model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. We aim to investigate the performance of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) grade, which are recently reported to be simple and objective measurements for liver reserve in HCC.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2014, consecutive 3182 HCC patients were enrolled to follow up their survival. The area under receiver-operator-characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to test the discriminatory powers over 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival.

RESULTS

Significant survival differences were found across all ALBI and PALBI grades (both P < 0.001). The majority (73%) of patients were CTP class A. Within CTP class A, ALBI revealed two prognostic groups while PALBI segregated three prognostic groups. The PABLI grade also identified three different survival groups for patients undergoing resection, ablation, and chemoembolization. Both ALBI and PALBI grade were capable of discerning survival among different HCC stages. The PALBI grade had significantly higher AUC compared with CTP classification and ALBI grade at 1, 3, and 5 years. For CTP class A patients, the PALBI grade was also associated with significantly higher AUC compared with ALBI grade at 1-year and 3-year intervals. The MELD score has the lowest AUC compared with other systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ALBI and PALBI grade are adequate models to assess liver dysfunction in HCC. The PALBI grade is consistently better in all patients, in patients with minimally decreased liver function, and in patients receiving different aggressive therapies.

Comparison of five models for end-stage liver disease in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is under expectation. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. The main purpose of this research is to compare Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and four MELD-based prognostic models in predicting the survival rate of advanced HCC patients. One hundred eighty-three patients with advanced HCC who were not amendable to standard anti-tumor therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to MELD, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-NA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to ascites and sodium (MELD-AS), integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) scores at diagnosis. 1-, 3-, and 6-month survivals were the end points used in the analysis. When predicting 1-month survival, MELD-AS, MELD, and MESO were the top 3 ranking staging systems. When predicting 3-month survival, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MELD-AS is significantly higher than that of the other models (P < 0.05). When predicting 6-month survival, AUCs of MELD-AS and MELD-NA are significantly higher than those of the other models (P < 0.05). Cutoff point of MELD-AS is 23.11 with 40.5 % sensitivity and 93.8 % specificity at 1 month, 9.5 with 76.9 % sensitivity and 59.5 % specificity at 3 months, and 18.5 with 27.0 % sensitivity and 89.1 % specificity at 6 months. MELD-based scores of death group are significantly higher than those of survivors within 1 and 3 months (P < 0.001). Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included persistent ascites, serum sodium, and thrombosis. MELD-AS is the best model in the prediction of short and intermediate survival among the five models for end-stage liver disease analyzed for Chinese advanced HCC patients.

Establishment and Validation of SSCLIP Scoring System to Estimate Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Received Curative Liver Resection

Background and Aims

There is no prognostic model that is reliable and practical for patients who have received curative liver resection (CLR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish and validate a Surgery-Specific Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (SSCLIP) scoring system for those patients.

Methods

668 eligible patients who underwent CLR for HCC from five separate tertiary hospitals were selected. The SSCLIP was constructed from a training cohort by adding independent predictors that were identified by Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to the original Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP). The prognostic performance of the SSCLIP at 12 and 36-months was compared with data from existing models. The patient survival distributions at different risk levels of the SSCLIP were also assessed.

Results

Four independent predictors were added to construct the SSCLIP, including age (HR = 1.075, 95%CI: 1.019–1.135, P = 0.009), albumin (HR = 0.804, 95%CI: 0.681–0.950, P = 0.011), prothrombin time activity (HR = 0.856, 95%CI: 0.751–0.975, P = 0.020) and microvascular invasion (HR = 19.852, 95%CI: 2.203–178.917, P = 0.008). In both training and validation cohorts, 12-month and 36-month prognostic performance of the SSCLIP were significantly better than those of the original CLIP, model of end-stage liver disease-based CLIP, Okuda and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (all P < 0.05). The stratification of risk levels of the SSCLIP showed an enhanced ability to differentiate patients with different outcomes.

Conclusions

A novel SSCLIP to predict survival of HCC patients who received CLR based on objective parameters may provide a refined, useful prognosis algorithm.

Ascites and alpha-fetoprotein improve prognostic performance of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging

AIM: To assess how ascites and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) added to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging predict hepatocellular carcinoma survival.

METHODS: The presence of underlying cirrhosis, ascites and encephalopathy, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, the number of nodules, and the maximum diameter of the largest nodule were determined at diagnosis for 1060 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma at a tertiary referral center for liver disease in Egypt. Demographic information, etiology of liver disease, and biochemical data (including serum bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, alanine and aspartate aminotransferases, and AFP) were evaluated. Staging of the tumor was determined at the time of diagnosis using the BCLC staging system; 496 patients were stage A and 564 patients were stage B. Patients with mild ascites on initial ultrasound, computed tomography, or clinical examination, and who had a CTP score ≤ 9 were included in this analysis. All patients received therapy according to the recommended treatment based on the BCLC stage, and were monitored from the time of diagnosis to the date of death or date of data collection. The effect of the presence of ascites and AFP level on survival was analyzed.

RESULTS: At the time the data were censored, 123/496 (24.8%) and 218/564 (38.6%) patients with BCLC stages A and B, respectively, had died. Overall mean survival of the BCLC A and B patients during a three-year follow-up period was 31 mo [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 29.7-32.3] and 22.7 mo (95%CI: 20.7-24.8), respectively. The presence of ascites, multiple focal lesions, large tumor size, AFP level and CTP score were independent predictors of survival for the included patients on multivariate analysis (P < 0.001). Among stage A patients, 18% had ascites, 33% had AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL, and 8% had both. Their median survival in the presence of ascites was shorter if AFP was ≥ 200 ng/mL (19 mo vs 24 mo), and in the absence of ascites, patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL had a shorter survival (28 mo vs 39 mo). For stage B patients, survival for the corresponding groups was 12, 18, 19 and 22 mo. The one-, two-, and three-year survival rates for stage A patients without ascites and AFP < 200 ng/mL were 94%, 77%, and 71%, respectively, and for patients with ascites and AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL were 83%, 24%, and 22%, respectively (P < 0.001). Adding ascites and AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL improved the discriminatory ability for predicting prognosis (area under the curve, 0.618 vs 0.579 for BCLC, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: Adding AFP and ascites to the BCLC staging classification can improve prognosis prediction for early and intermediate stages of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Surgical resection is better than transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria independent of performance status

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Performance status is tightly linked with survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of performance status on HCC patients beyond the Milan criteria receiving surgical resection (SR) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

A total of 909 patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria were retrospectively analyzed by using propensity score analysis.

RESULTS

The baseline characteristics were similar between the SR and TACE group for patients with performance status 0 in the propensity model. More patients in the TACE group with performance status ≥1 had Child-Turcotte-Pugh class A compared to the SR group (p = 0.044) in the propensity model. SR provided significantly better long-term overall survival than TACE in patients selected in the propensity model regardless of performance status (both p < 0.05). In the Cox proportional hazards model, TACE was associated with 2.279-fold and 3.066-fold increased risk of mortality in performance status 0 and performance status ≥1 in the propensity model (95% confidence interval, 1.476-3.591 and 1.570-5.989), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

For either performance status 0 or ≥1 HCC patients beyond the Milan criteria, SR provides significantly better long-term survival than TACE. SR should be considered a priority treatment in these patients independent of performance status.

Comparing staging systems for predicting prognosis and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt

Introduction

Several hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems are available. Although the European Association for Study of Liver Diseases (EASL) and American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) recommended the use of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), many studies in different populations revealed heterogeneous results. The aim of this study was to compare different staging systems for predicting prognosis and survival, and for stratifying HCC patients for treatment at a national referral centre for liver disease in Egypt.

Methods

2000 Patients were included in this study. Baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were determined at diagnosis. Patients were stratified using the Okuda, BCLC, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), and Japan Integrated Staging (JIS). Patients’ survival in different stages within each staging system and the validity of the system in predicting survival were compared.

Results

The overall survival was 15 months. The 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-year survival of the entire cohort was 56%, 34%, 25% and 15% respectively. The presence of ascites, multiple focal lesions, large tumour size >5 cm, portal vein thrombosis, extra-hepatic spread, AFP≥200 ng/ml and poor Child score were independent predictors of survival (p<0.001). All staging systems were significant in determining overall survival in univariate and multivariate analyses. BCLC was the most predictive staging system for the whole cohort (p<0.001). Among the subgroup of patients offered potentially curative therapy, BCLC was the most informative system in predicting patient survival (p<0.001). For patients with advanced HCC not amenable for specific therapy, CLIP was the best staging system for predicting prognosis (p<0.001).

Conclusion

BCLC staging system provided the best prognostic stratification for HCC patients. However, CLIP score has the highest stratification ability in patients with advanced HCC highlighting the importance of including AFP in best staging system.

Performance status in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: determinants, prognostic impact, and ability to improve the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system

Performance status is included in the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Few studies specifically evaluated the role of performance status in patients with HCC. This study investigated its distribution, determinants, and prognostic impact, aiming to improve the performance of the BCLC system. A total of 2,381 HCC patients were enrolled. Performance status was determined according to the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale. The prognostic ability of the original and three modified BCLC systems in HCC patients was compared by the Akaike information criterion (AIC). There were 60, 17, 11, 8, and 4% of patients who were classified as performance status 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. A worse performance status significantly correlated with age, alcoholism, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, renal insufficiency, hyponatremia, and prothrombin time prolongation (all P < 0.001). Larger tumor burden, poorer residual liver function, more frequent vascular invasion, and diabetes mellitus were also observed in patients with worse performance status (all P < 0.001). Patients with poorer performance status more often received best supportive care (P < 0.001). In the Cox proportional hazards model, performance status was an independent prognostic predictor and the long-term survival tended to be worse in patients with progressively poor performance status (all P < 0.05). Reassigning patients with performance status 0 or 1 to stage B provided the lowest AIC among the four BCLC-based staging systems.

CONCLUSION

Performance status is strongly associated with both tumoral and cirrhotic factors and accurately predicts long-term survival in HCC patients. Modification of the BCLC system based on performance status may further enhance its prognostic ability in patients with early to advanced cancer stage.

A prognostic model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria undergoing non-transplant therapies, based on 1106 patients

BACKGROUND

The Milan criteria are used to select candidates with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for liver transplantation. Due to severe shortage of donors, majority of patients within the Milan criteria need to seek alternative treatments.

AIM

To propose a prognostic model for these patients undergoing non-transplant therapies.

METHODS

A total of 1106 HCC patients, who were within the Milan criteria and received non-transplant therapies were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation set according to treatments. A prognostic model was constructed from independent predictors of survival identified in the multivariate Cox model of the derivation set and was confirmed in the validation set.

RESULTS

In the Cox model, serum bilirubin ≥1.5 mg/dL [risk ratio (RR): 1.525, P = 0.016], α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥100 ng/mL (RR: 1.728, P < 0.001), mild ascites (RR: 1.705, P = 0.025) and moderate/severe ascites (RR: 4.163, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor survival in the derivation set (n = 553). A prognostic model with a total of 0-4 points was derived with the sum of three variables: 1 point each for bilirubin ≥1.5 mg/dL, AFP ≥100 ng/mL and mild ascites, and 2 points for moderate/severe ascites. This scoring system accurately predicted the survival in the validation set (n = 553; P < 0.001). The model consistently discriminated the survival in patients stratified by curative and noncurative treatments (both P values <0.001).

CONCLUSION

The newly proposed prognostic scoring model, based on serum bilirubin and AFP level, and severity of ascites, is informative to predict the survival in non-transplant HCC patients within the Milan criteria.

Comparison of radiofrequency ablation and transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria: a propensity score analysis

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are used to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to compare the long-term survival of HCC patients within the Milan criteria who underwent RFA or TACE. In all, 315 RFA patients and 215 TACE patients with HCC within the Milan criteria were analyzed. Propensity scores were generated to select matched patients. For the propensity model, 101 patients were selected from each arm of the study. Independent prognostic predictors were determined with the Cox proportional hazards model. The long-term survival was significantly better for the RFA group in the univariate survival analysis (P = 0.048). In the Cox model, the following were identified as independent predictors of poor prognosis (TACE was not): age > 69 years (P = 0.026), serum α-fetoprotein level > 20 ng/mL (P = 0.003), ascites (P < 0.001), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1 (P = 0.004), total tumor volume (TTV) > 8.2 cm³ (P = 0.020), and vascular invasion (P = 0.023). With similar baseline patient characteristics generated in the propensity score model, there was no significant difference in the long-term survival rates of the 2 groups of patients. A subgroup analysis showed that among patients with a TTV < 11 cm³, the RFA group had significantly better long-term survival than the TACE group (P = 0.032). In conclusion, TACE and RFA lead to comparable long-term survival rates for HCC patients within the Milan criteria. Patients with a smaller TTV (<11 cm³) are likely to benefit more from RFA treatment. Further studies are needed to compare RFA and TACE in patients with early-stage cancers.

Preserved liver function, portal thrombosis and absence of oesophageal varices are risk factors for metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Extrahepatic metastases represent a major obstacle for further improving prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.

AIM

To assess clinical predictors of extrahepatic metastases in a large cohort followed in a single centre.

METHODS

We evaluated clinical files of 520 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma admitted from 1994 to 2002 to our Liver Unit. The following risk factors were assessed: age, gender, hepatitis viruses, alcohol, diabetes, size, number and differentiation of hepatocellular carcinoma, percutaneous biopsy, portal thrombosis, alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh, Cancer Liver Italian Program and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification, varices, hepatocellular carcinoma treatment.

RESULTS

Extrahepatic metastases were detected in 55/520 patients (10.5%) after 0-72 months (median 15, CI 3-20) from initial evaluation. Lower bilirubin, INR, Child-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores, higher alpha-feto protein levels, portal thrombosis and absence of oesophageal varices were all associated with distant metastases at univariate analysis. Absence of oesophageal varices and portal thrombosis resulted as independent predictors (P = 0.0003 and P = 0.004, respectively) on multivariate logistic regression. Patients with metastases showed poorer survival (3 months) than total hepatocellular carcinoma population (26 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Extrahepatic metastases of hepatocellular carcinoma are rare but significantly impair prognosis. Extrahepatic metastases were more frequent in patients with well preserved liver function. Absence of oesophageal varices and presence of portal thrombosis were the strongest risk factors.

Prognostic prediction across a gradient of total tumor volume in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

Background

The size and number of tumors are important prognostic indicators for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, it is difficult to assess the prognosis for patients with a variable number and size of tumors. By combining these two factors, we investigated the role and prognostic accuracy of total tumor volume (TTV) for HCC.

Methods

A total of 786 patients undergoing locoregional therapy (transarterial chemoembolization, percutaneous radiofrequency ablation and acetic acid or ethanol injection) for HCC were prospectively evaluated.

Results

The mean and median TTV was 177 cm³ (range, 0.1-3,591 cm³) and 21 cm³, respectively. Of all, 38%, 29%, 15%, 7% and 11% of patients had TTV of <10 cm³, 10-50 cm³, 50-200 cm³, 200-500 cm³ and >500 cm³, respectively. TTV was significantly larger in patients with higher serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels or with vascular invasion. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, performance status, vascular invasion, AFP level and TTV were significant independent prognostic predictors in the Cox proportional hazards model. After adjustment, patients with TTV 50-200 cm³ (relative risk [RR]: 1.74, p = 0.009), 200-500 cm³ (RR: 2.15, p = 0.006) and >500 cm³ (RR: 3.92, p < 0.001) had a significantly increased mortality risk in comparison to patients with TTV <10 cm³.

Conclusions

TTV is a feasible prognostic predictor across a wide gradient and can be used to predict the mortality risk of HCC. Selecting appropriate cutoffs of TTV may help refine the design of cancer staging system and treatment planning. Future clinical trials of HCC may include this parameter for mortality risk stratification.

Selecting an optimal staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of 5 currently used prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Selecting an appropriate staging system is crucial to predict the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The optimal prognostic model for HCC is under intense debate. This study investigated the prognostic ability of the 5 currently used staging systems, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS) system, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), and Tokyo score, for HCC.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2008, 1713 prospectively enrolled HCC patients were compared for their long-term survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) according to the staging or scoring methods of these 5 models.

RESULTS

The mean and median follow-up duration was 18 and 14 months, respectively. Among all patients, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value in comparison with other systems in the Cox proportional hazards model, followed by the Tokyo score, JIS score, BCLC staging system, and TNM staging system. Patients undergoing curative treatment had a significantly better survival in comparison with patients undergoing noncurative treatment (P < .001). When the predictive accuracy of the staging systems was analyzed according to treatment strategy, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value and remained the best prognostic model in patients undergoing curative (801 patients) and noncurative (912 patients) treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP staging system is the best long-term prognostic model for HCC in a cohort of patient with early to advanced stage of HCC. Its predictive accuracy is independent of the treatment strategy. Selecting an optimal staging system is helpful in improving the design of future clinical trials.

A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma based on total tumor volume: the Taipei Integrated Scoring System

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The currently used staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not satisfactory. The optimal prognostic model for HCC is still under intense debate. This study aimed to propose a new staging system for HCC based on total tumor volume (TTV) and to compare it with the currently used systems.

METHODS

A total of 2030 HCC patients undergoing different treatment strategies were retrospectively analyzed. TTV was defined as the sum of the volume of each tumor [(4/3)x3.14x(radius of tumor in cm)(3)]. The discriminatory ability of the TTV-based staging system and the four current systems, including the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Staging system, and Tokyo system, was examined by comparing the Akaike information criterion (AIC) using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A higher TTV correlated well with the decreased survival in HCC patients (p<0.001). Among the 12 TTV-based staging systems, the TTV-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP)-alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) combination provided the lowest AIC value. The TTV-CTP-AFP model consistently showed a better prognostic ability in comparison to the current four staging systems. In 936 HCC patients receiving curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provided the second best predictive accuracy following the CLIP score. Alternatively, in 1094 patients undergoing non-curative treatment, the TTV-CTP-AFP model exhibited the smallest AIC value.

CONCLUSIONS

TTV may be a feasible tumoral prognostic predictor for HCC. In this single-hospital study that included patients with early to advanced cancer stages, the TTV-CTP-AFP model provides the best prognostic ability among 12 TTV-based and currently used staging systems.

Diabetes mellitus as an independent prognostic predictor and its association with renal dysfunction in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often have coexisting cirrhosis, which may predispose to the development of diabetes mellitus (DM). Diabetic HCC patients may have renal insufficiency and a subsequent worse outcome. This study investigated the interaction between DM, cirrhosis and renal dysfunction and the impact of these factors on HCC.

METHODS

A prospective database of 1713 HCC patients was analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 392 (22.9%) patients were diabetic. Diabetic patients had a significantly higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease score and serum creatinine level, but had significantly lower serum albumin, sodium, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and bilirubin levels. The serum creatinine level progressively increased and correlated well with increasing CTP class in both diabetic and non-diabetic patients. After a mean follow-up of 18+/-16 months, DM was shown to be an independent predictor of mortality in the Cox proportional hazard model after adjusting for other predictors [hazard ratio (HR): 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.42]. Diabetic patients more often had renal insufficiency, defined as serum creatinine>1.5 mg/dl (17.3 vs 8.3%, P<0.0001). Renal insufficiency was an independent prognostic predictor in diabetic patients (HR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.57-3.24) but not in non-diabetic patients, because it was significantly associated with the severity of cirrhosis in the non-diabetic group (P<0.001) but not in the diabetic group (P=0.143).

CONCLUSIONS

DM is associated with inadequate liver reserve and independently predicts decreased survival in HCC patients. Both advanced cirrhosis and DM are associated with renal insufficiency, which is a poor prognostic predictor for HCC.

Selecting a short-term prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and five cancer staging systems

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) are prognostic models for cirrhotic patients with or without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study compared the predictive accuracy between the MELD, MELD-Na, TNM (tumor, node, metastasis), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS), and Tokyo score for 3-month and 6-month mortality in HCC patients.

METHODS

A total of 953 patients were prospectively enrolled. The predictive accuracy was compared between different models using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The CLIP system had the highest AUC (0.875) for predicting 3-month mortality, followed by the Tokyo score (0.874), JIS (0.868), BCLC (0.855), MELD-Na (0.829), MELD (0.803), and finally, TNM (0.795) system. At 6 months, the top 3 models and their AUCs were the CLIP (0.882), Tokyo (0.861), and JIS (0.85). MELD-Na consistently had significantly better predictive accuracy than the MELD at 3 and 6 months. The MELD and MELD-Na were better prognostic models in predicting the mortality for surgical patients (AUC, 0.719 to 0.740), whereas the CLIP and Tokyo systems were the 2 better models in staging nonsurgical (AUC, 0.849 to 0.884) and high-risk patients (AUC, 0.790 to 0.846), defined as having at least 2 independent risk factors of mortality, at 3 and 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD-Na may improve the prognostic ability of the MELD system for patients with HCC. Both the CLIP and Tokyo systems are better short-term prognostic models. These findings are helpful in designing future clinical trials for HCC.

Characteristics and outcome of patients with dual hepatitis B and C-associated hepatocellular carcinoma: are they different from patients with single virus infection?

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) caused by dual hepatitis B and C virus (HBV, HCV) infection may constitute a distinct disease group that is different from patients with single virus infection. This study compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with HBV, HCV and dual virus infection.

METHODS

A prospective database of 1215 HCC patients with chronic hepatitis B, C or dual virus infection was investigated.

RESULTS

Patients with HCV infection (n=388) were significantly older (mean age, 69 years) than patients with dual virus (n=75, 65 years) and HBV (n=752; 60 years) infection (P<0.0001). The male-to-female ratios for the HBV, dual virus and HCV groups were 5.2, 3.4 and 1.3 respectively (P<0.0001). Patients in the HBV group more often had higher total tumour volume (mean, 409 cm(3)) than those in the dual virus group (244 cm(3)) and HCV (168 cm(3)) group (P<0.0001). No significant differences of the severity of liver cirrhosis, performance status, cancer staging and tumour cell differentiation were noted among the three groups. Patients in the HCV group had a significantly poor survival in comparison with the HBV group only in the subset of patients with small tumour volume (<50 cm(3)) in the Cox proportional hazards model (relative risk, 1.44; P=0.041).

CONCLUSIONS

Dual HBV and HCV virus infection does not accelerate the speed of HCC formation in patients with chronic hepatitis B, and appears to have a modified course of carcinogenesis pathway that is diverted away from the biological behaviour of HBV and HCV infection.

The MELD-Na is an independent short- and long-term prognostic predictor for hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective survey

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Serum sodium has been suggested to incorporate into the model for end-stage liver disease to enhance its prognostic ability for cirrhosis. A mathematical equation based on model for end-stage liver disease and sodium, known as "MELD-Na", was developed for outcome prediction for cirrhosis. The severity of liver cirrhosis is a key component to predict survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. This study investigated the prognostic role of MELD-Na for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 535 unselected hepatocellular carcinoma patients were prospectively enrolled to evaluate the performance of MELD-Na.

RESULTS

The MELD-Na was better than model for end-stage liver disease in predicting 6-month mortality by comparing the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (0.782 vs. 0.761, p=0.101). MELD-Na, but not model for end-stage liver disease, was an independent predictor associated with 6-month mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 1.14, p=0.001). In the survival analysis, MELD-Na also independently predicted mortality, with an additional risk of 4.3% per unit increment of the score (p<0.001). Patients with MELD-Na scores between 10 and 20 and scores >20 had 2.1-fold (p<0.001) and 7.5-fold (p<0.001) risk of mortality, respectively, compared to patients with a score <10 in the Cox proportional hazard model.

CONCLUSION

The MELD-Na score is a feasible and independent prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term outcome predictions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Comparison of four model for end-stage liver disease-based prognostic systems for cirrhosis

Serum sodium (Na) has been suggested for incorporation into the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to enhance its prognostic ability for patients with cirrhosis. Three Na-containing models--the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na), the integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) index--were independently proposed for this purpose. This study investigated the accuracy of these 4 MELD-based models for outcome prediction. The c-statistic equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), used to predict 3- and 6-month mortality, was calculated and compared in 825 patients with cirrhosis. The MELD score tended to be lower with increasing Na level. At 3 months of enrollment, the iMELD had the highest AUC (0.807) and was followed by the MELD-Na (0.801), MESO (0.784), and MELD (0.773); the difference between the MESO and MELD was statistically significant (P = 0.013). At 6 months, the iMELD still had the highest AUC (0.797) and was followed by the MELD-Na (0.778), MESO (0.747), and MELD (0.735); all comparisons showed significant differences between each other (all P < 0.01), with the exception of iMELD and MELD-Na (P = 0.18). With the most discriminative cutoffs, the specificity and negative predictive value were 70%-85% and 89%-97%, respectively, at 3 and 6 months for the 4 models. Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) consistently had significantly higher MELD-derived scores in all 4 models compared to patients without SBP (all P < 0.01). Patients with hepatic encephalopathy also had higher scores in all 4 models, although the statistical significance was established only for the iMELD (41.0 +/- 11.5 versus 37.6 +/- 9.1, P = 0.037). In conclusion, the incorporation of Na into the MELD may enhance prognostic accuracy. Both the iMELD and MELD-Na are better prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with SBP have a higher MELD-derived score. Future studies are warranted to define the optimal MELD-based prognostic model for cirrhosis.

Validation of the HCC-MELD for dropout probability in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing locoregional therapy

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is used in prioritizing cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are eligible candidates. An HCC-MELD equation was recently proposed to predict the dropout rate of HCC patients on the waiting list. This study aimed to validate the accuracy of this equation.

METHODS

We investigated 390 patients with small HCC who were candidates for liver transplantation and underwent locoregional therapy.

RESULTS

The estimated probability of dropout according to the equation was 8.2% for T1 stage and 13.5% for T2 stage HCC (p < 0.0001). The actual disease progression rate at three months was 2.1% for T1 and 3.0% for T2 stage HCC. At six months, the progression rate was 5.3% for T1 stage and 6.8% for T2 stage. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the HCC-MELD equation was 0.81 at three months and 0.80 at six months. Patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) had significantly lower dropout rates compared with other treatment groups according to the equation (p = 0.0007). The actual tumor progression rate was also the lowest for the RFA group at both three and six months.

CONCLUSION

The HCC-MELD equation is a feasible predictive model for patients with small HCC undergoing locoregional therapy.

Comparison of 7 staging systems for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Many liver staging systems have been proposed for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after locoregional therapy; however, controversies persist regarding which system is the best. In this study, the authors compared the performance of 7 staging systems in a cohort of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent transarterial chemoembolization.

METHODS

In total, 131 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent transarterial chemoembolization between August 1998 and February 2005 were included in the study. Demographic, laboratory, and tumor characteristics were determined at diagnosis and before therapy. At the time of censorship, 109 patients had died (83.2%). Predictors of survival were identified by using the Cox proportional hazards model. The likelihood-ratio chi-square statistic and the Akaike Information Criterion were calculated for 7 prognostic systems to evaluate their discriminatory ability. Comparisons of the survival rate between each stage were performed to evaluate the monotonicity of the gradients using Kaplan-Meier estimation and the log-rank test.

RESULTS

The 5-year survival rate for the entire cohort was 13.6%. The independent predictors of survival were serum albumin level (<or=3.4 g/dL), the presence of ascites, serum alpha-fetoprotein level (>60 ng/mL), and portal or hepatic vein tumor thrombosis (P= .001, P= .001, P= .004, and P= .000, respectively). The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program classification system was superior to the other 6 prognostic systems regarding discriminatory ability and the monotonicity of the gradients.

CONCLUSIONS

In this comparison of many staging systems, the Cancer of Liver Italian Program system provided the best prognostic stratification for a cohort the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent transarterial chemoembolization.

Is the corrected-creatinine model for end-stage liver disease a feasible strategy to adjust gender difference in organ allocation for liver transplantation?

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system is used for organ allocation in liver transplantation. Female cirrhotic patients have lower glomerular filtration rates (GFR) than males for the same creatinine (Cr) level. Correcting the Cr in females for the same GFR as in males shows that females have lower MELD scores and therefore a lower priority for liver transplantation; however, there has been no outcome data that justifies this modification.

METHODS

We investigated 472 cirrhotic patients, comparing the mortality rate between males and females in relation to MELD and corrected-Cr MELD.

RESULTS

Compared to females, male patients had a higher MELD (14.5+/-5.5 vs. 13.8+/-5.7) and significantly higher GFR (61.7+/-21.4 vs. 54.7+/-25.6 mlLmin/1.73 m, P=0.0002) because their Cr value was higher (1.4+/-0.4 vs. 1.3+/-0.5 mg/dL, P=0.0002). The corrected-Cr MELD score in females was higher (15.7+/-6.3) compared to the MELD in their original counterpart (P<0.0001) and the males (P=0.060). Female and male patients had a similar 3-month mortality rate (6.7% vs. 6.3%) and MELD (21.9+/-8.6 vs. 21.7+/-8.9) among deceased patients. At 6 months, female patients tended to have a lower mortality (12.5% vs. 14.7%) and a lower MELD (18.9+/-7.7 vs. 19.4+/-8.5) in deceased patients. However, at 9 and 12 months, females had a consistently higher mortality (25% vs. 21.2% and 37.5% vs. 31.3%, respectively) but lower MELD scores than males by 0.3-1 point.

CONCLUSIONS

Using corrected-Cr MELD, which would prioritize female patients for liver transplantation, may only be justified in predicting intermediate-term (9- and 12-month), but not short-term (3- and 6-month) mortality.

The model for end-stage liver disease based cancer staging systems are better prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective sequential survey

OBJECTIVE

Liver cirrhosis is a major component in staging for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a better prognostic predictor for cirrhotic patients compared to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system, which is a parameter in Cancer of Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), and Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS) system.

AIM

To investigate if the MELD-based models have a better prognostic ability.

METHODS

In the MELD-based model, the CTP class was replaced with MELD score at cutoffs of <10, 10-14, and >14. The modified systems were prospectively compared with the original counterpart in 430 consecutive HCC patients. Using 6-month mortality as the end point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between the original and modified system was compared sequentially on a 3-monthly basis.

RESULTS

At the final inspection, the modified CLIP and JIS system had a significantly higher AUC compared to the original system (0.92 vs 0.893 for CLIP, P < 0.018; 0.88 vs 0.842 for JIS, P= 0.002), but there was no significant difference for the BCLC system (0.848 vs 0.841, P= 0.561). Survival analysis showed modified CLIP and JIS, and to a lesser extent, modified BCLC system, had a higher homogeneity likelihood ratio and discriminatory ability linear trend, and a lower Akaike information criterion in the Cox multivariate model, indicating a better discriminatory ability for different stage categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD-based CLIP and JIS staging systems have an improved predictive ability compared to the original system and are feasible models for HCC staging in the MELD era.

The model for end-stage liver disease comes of age

The care of patients who have chronic liver disease has evolved considerably since the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was first described 6 years ago. This article traces the progress in liver allocation and clinical liver disease research that includes the MELD score and highlights the management of areas in which MELD and the principles underlying MELD enhance the clinician's ability to understand better the patient who has chronic liver disease.

Comparison of clinical staging systems in predicting survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving major or minor hepatectomy

AIM

To compare the utility of seven commonly used staging systems in the prediction of survival among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing major or minor hepatectomy.

METHODS

All patients were classified by the Okuda, the TNM, the CLIP, the BCLC, the CUPI, the JIS and the MELD classifications to estimate the probabilities of survival. Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and were examined using log-rank testing. The overall predictive power for patient survival with each staging system was evaluated using linear trend chi(2) tests and from the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

In our patient cohort, the log-rank test and the linear trend chi(2) test of the CLIP and JIS systems gave better results than did the other staging systems. The discriminatory ability of the CLIP and JIS staging for death, evaluated by ROC curve areas, was also better. In the subgroups of major hepatectomy patients with a non-cirrhotic liver or minor hepatectomy patients with a cirrhotic liver, the CLIP and JIS systems showed similar better performances in these three tests. The discriminatory ability of the CLIP system was the best in major hepatectomy patients with a non-cirrhotic liver while JIS score discriminated best in minor hepatectomy patients with a cirrhotic liver.

CONCLUSION

Among the seven staging systems, the CLIP and JIS systems perform better than do the others. While the CLIP system should be considered to stage major hepatectomy patients, the JIS system could be chosen to stage minor hepatectomy patients.