China's below-replacement fertility: government policy or socioeconomic development?

A reassessment of trends and rural-urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000-2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data

The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China's TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural-urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural-urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010-2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels.

Female university students' fertility intentions and their psychosocial factors

BACKGROUND

Raising the birth rate can effectively increase the resulting labour supply and minimise the adverse impact of an ageing population on high-quality economic development since the demographic dividend is rapidly declining. The Chinese government has a "three-child" policy in place, yet the fertility rate is still falling. This study intends to investigate the present fertility intentions of female university students and assess the extent to which feminism has affected their intentions. It will next investigate the degree to which and the mechanisms by which the psychosocial factors have an impact on those intentions.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of female university students was conducted in Nanjing, China, from February to March 2023. To assure the representativeness of the sample, a technique of stratified proportional sampling, PPS sampling, and convenience sampling was utilized. A total of 1124 valid samples were acquired from female university students in 15 comprehensive universities. The data were mined and analysed by SPSS (version 24.0) and AMOS (version 24.0) software.

RESULTS

Overall female university students' fertility intentions are low at this stage, with more than half (53.55%) of them having no clear desire to have children. The level of feminist identity significantly negatively affected the Intensity of desire to have children (-0.32) and child-number desires (-0.7). Psychosocial factors had a greater degree of influence on fertility intentions. The direct effect of the level of feminist identity and the perception of fertility hindrances on childbearing desires was -0.63 and -0.50 respectively, and the direct effect of the perception of fertility supports on childbearing intentions was 0.79.

CONCLUSION

The level of feminist identity is significantly and negatively related to childbearing desires. Psychosocial factors have a greater degree of influence on fertility intentions, with the level of feminist identity, the perception of fertility hindrances and the perception of fertility supports all significantly impacting fertility intentions. The findings of this study emphasise the importance of the government providing a full range of social security and employers providing better employee benefits to promote a fertility-friendly society.

The Impact of Education on Fertility During the Chinese Reform Era (1980-2018): Changes Across Birth Cohorts and Interaction with Fertility Policies

We examined the influence of education on fertility decisions in contemporary China, drawing upon theoretical insights that emphasise the role of social institutions, gender relations, and life course dynamics in shaping family behaviour. This led us to propose a set of hypotheses that explain the differential effect of education on each parity. We used information on female cohorts born between 1960 and 1989, coming from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010-2018. We applied event history models with both independent and simultaneous equations models to account for selection and endogeneity effects. The results point to a substantial contribution of the increased educational attainment in the population in the fertility decline and current low levels of fertility, beyond the role of fertility policies. Consistent with our hypotheses, the results show that woman's educational attainment has a strong negative effect on the hazard of bearing a second or third child. Male partner's educational attainment also has a negative effect on the hazard of transition to a second or third birth, yet with a weaker intensity. We also found that the negative effect of education on second birth rates significantly declines across birth cohorts. The results show little educational differentials in the probability of bearing a first child, while the better educated postpone first births. Moreover, the effect of fertility policies, measured at the individual level, gradually increases with the level of education.

Third-child fertility intention and its socioeconomic factors among women aged 20-34 years in China

BACKGROUND

The low birth rates and rapid population aging has drawn considerable attention from scholars and policymakers in China and around the world. In 2021, China launched the policy and supportive measures that allow up to 3 children per couple. This study aims to explore the influencing factors of the third-child fertility intention among women aged 20-34 years in China.

METHODS

We draw data from the National Fertility Survey conducted in 2017. The nationally representative survey adopts a stratified, 3-stage, and probabilities proportional to size sampling method. A total of 61,588 valid samples aged 20-34 years old were obtained. Fertility desire and behavior, childbearing and service use, and potential influencing factors of fertility intention such as the history of pregnancy were assessed.

RESULTS

In general, 5.01% of Chinese women of prime childbearing age had fertility intention for a third child, and the proportion varies by region across mainland China. Individual characteristics such as being ethnic minorities, being rural residents, and having more siblings are significantly positively correlated with the third-child fertility intention, while the intention was significantly lower among women with a higher income or education level, migrant women, and those engaged in the non-agricultural labor force. Women who already had a son had lower fertility intention for a third child. Moreover, it was the perceived acceptable costs of childcare services rather than the actual costs that mattered more for the fertility intention.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study concludes a series of socioeconomic factors, and previous childbearing and childrearing experiences are crucial for women's fertility intention for a third child. These findings highlight the importance of launching supportive measures in addition to the introduction of the 3-child policy in promoting a fertility-friendly society.

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20-39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

An aging giant at the center of global warming: Population dynamics and its effect on CO2 emissions in China

Revealing the complex correlation between population aging and CO₂, and projecting their future dynamics are fundamentally necessary to inform effective policies toward a low-carbon and sustainable development in China. Differing from the existing studies, this study highlighted a quantitative investigation on the impact of aging on CO₂ emissions across the different stages of regional development in China through a STIRPAT model based on balanced provincial panel data from 1995 to 2019, and projected the demographic change and CO₂ emissions till 2050 by employing cohort model and scenario analysis. It is found that CO₂ emissions in China has witnessed a significant growth during 1995-2019, and will exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth till 2050 with its peak appears between 2030 and 2040. Statistically, every 1% growth of aging population will cause a 0.62% increase in CO₂ emissions in China. However, a big regional difference was also detected as aging contributed to CO₂ reduction in the eastern region, but stimulated CO₂ emissions in the central and western regions. Policy implications for achieving a low-carbon and aging-oriented sustainable development may include the integration of aging into the decision-making in industrial structure upgrading and CO₂ emission reduction at both national and region levels, the promotion of further transition to low-carbon consumption and green products in the eastern region, and strengthening the deep fusion of aging-oriented industries with local resource and environmental endowment in the central and western regions such as the development of eco-agriculture and green pension industries.

Life-course fertility and multimorbidity among middle-aged and elderly women in China: Evidence from China health and retirement longitudinal study

Background

Multimorbidity has become an important public health problem in China, especially among middle-aged and elderly women. Few studies have been reported on the association between multimorbidity and female fertility, which is an important stage in the life course. This study aimed to explore the association between multimorbidity and fertility history among middle-aged and elderly women in China.

Methods

Data from 10,182 middle-aged and elderly female participants in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2018 were used in this study. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of at least two or more chronic conditions. Logistic regression analysis, negative binomial regression analysis, and restrictive cubic splines (RCSs) were used to analyze the relationship between female fertility history and multimorbidity or the number of chronic conditions. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze the relationship between female fertility history and multimorbidity pattern factor scores.

Results

The results of this study showed that high parity and early childbearing were significantly associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity and an increased number of chronic conditions among middle-aged and elderly women in China. Late childbearing was significantly associated with reduced risk of multimorbidity and lessened diseases. Parity and age of first childbirth were significantly correlated with the odds of multimorbidity. The association between fertility history and multimorbidity was found to be influenced by age and urban-rural dual structure. Women with high parity tend to have higher factor scores of cardiac-metabolic, visceral-arthritic, and respiratory-psychiatric patterns. Women with early childbearing tended to have higher factor scores of the visceral-arthritic pattern and those with late childbearing tended to have lower factor scores of the cardiac-metabolic pattern.

Conclusion

Fertility history has a significant effect on multimorbidity in the middle and later lives of Chinese women. This study is of great importance for reducing the prevalence of multimorbidity among Chinese women through their life course and promoting health during their middle and later lives.

The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data

Declining total fertility rates pose a severe challenge to the economy, society, culture, and politics of any region. Low fertility rates among China's rural floating population with strong fertility are aggravating these challenges. Previous research has confirmed the relationships between health insurance and fertility intention. However, it is still unclear whether the existing association is favorable or not. Moreover, the majority of existing studies in China employ data from either urban or rural populations, whereas evidence from rural floating populations remains scarce. Based on the "China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS)" in 2016, the current study used the logistic regression model to explore the impact of health insurance policy on the fertility intention of the rural floating population in China. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to address potential selection bias. Three important findings were observed: Firstly, participating in the Basic Medical Insurance System (BMISUR) significantly improved rural floating populations' fertility intentions in China. Secondly, the association between age and the fertility intention of the floating population was "inverted u-shaped" with the highest fertility intention among those aged 25 to 34. There was also a positive correlation between personal income and fertility intention, and it was found between local housing purchase, formal employment, the co-residents scale, and the fertility intention in the rural floating population in China. Interprovincial mobility was positively associated with the fertility intention among rural migrants. Thirdly, the impact of health insurance policies on the fertility intention of the rural migrant population varies by gender, age, and inflow areas. The aforementioned findings can guide the Chinese government in its efforts to improve the fertility intention of the rural floating population, reform the social security system with a focus on "targets", and implement differentiated welfare policies aimed at promoting the equalization of basic public services, thereby contributing to China's population structure and long-term development.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

Social status predicts different mating and reproductive success for men and women in China: evidence from the 2010–2017 CGSS data

Abstract

Evolutionary psychological theories posit that higher social status is conducive to men’s reproductive success. Extant research from historical records, small scale societies, as well as industrialized societies, support this hypothesis. However, the relationship between status difference between spouses and reproductive success has been investigated less. Moreover, even fewer studies have directly compared the effect of status and status difference between spouses on reproductive success in men and women. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) conducted between 2010 and 2017 (N = 55,875; 28,931 women) and operationalizing social status as standardized income and educational level (compared with same-sex peers), we examined how social status and relative status between spouses impact men’s and women’s mating and reproductive success. We found that (1) men with higher social status were more likely to have long-term mating (being in a marriage and/or not going through marriage disruption) and reproductive success, mainly through having a lower risk of childlessness; (2) women with higher social status were less likely to have mating and reproductive success; and (3) relative status between spouses had an impact on the couple’s reproductive success so that couples, where the husband had higher status compared to the wife, had higher reproductive success. Thus, social status positively impacted men’s reproductive success, but relative status between spouses also affected mating and impacted childbearing decisions.

Significance statement

In terms of standardized educational level and income among peers, social status positively predicts men’s mating and reproductive success in contemporary China. However, while a higher social status increases the probability of having at least one child, it does not predict a greater number of children for men. A status difference between spouses, on the other hand, consistently predicts having children. Thus, the higher the husband’s status relative to his wife, the greater the likelihood of having the first, second, and third children. The current results suggest that when examining the effect of status on mating and reproduction, social status and status within a family should be considered. We also stress the importance of exploring the potential proximate mechanisms by which a status difference influences childbearing decisions.

Frontier of Rural Revitalization in China: A Spatial Analysis of National Rural Tourist Towns

As the national economic situation improves, concerns about rural issues in China, a large agricultural country, are gradually increasing. Hence, rural tourism has been thrust into the limelight. This research is based on the National Rural Tourist Towns of China (NRTTC). It aims to analyze the spatial structure, influencing factors and their relevance to rural tourism development. Initially, this research examines the spatial distribution pattern in terms of kernel density. Subsequently, the imbalance index and Lorenz curve are used to distinguish the differences in spatial distribution. The Gini coefficient is used to explore the clustered regional distribution. The results indicate the following: (1) the number of NRTTC in each province is relatively even; and (2) the spatial distribution is highly uneven. The degree of aggregation is bounded by the Hu Huanyong boundary, with more in the southeast and less in the northwest. The capital circle is the core density area. Additionally, those NRTTC in the eastern and southeastern regions have a large distribution density and a more comprehensive radiation range. This study additionally analyzed the factors influencing the spatial distribution characteristics of NRTTC, and found four crucial aspects, namely, the national development strategy, the social environment, the geographical environment, and historical development. This research can provide a reference for the construction of rural tourist towns in different countries and regions.

China's fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures

Background

The period fertility in China has declined to very low levels, and the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) has also decreased significantly. However, the exact fertility rate remains controversial. While the tempo effect has played a significant role in China’s period fertility decline, child underreporting has to be taken into consideration in China’s fertility research.

Methods

By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods.

Results

The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020.

Conclusions

The traditional norm of universal marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is changing. China’s fertility has been steadily declining, as measured by both period and cohort indicators. Following the historical change, fertility may continue to decline even after introducing the universal three-child policy in China in 2021.

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

Urban-rural differences in China's crude death rate changes

BACKGROUND

From 1982 to 2010, the country's crude death rate (CDR) dropped sharply, fluctuated, and finally slightly declined. There is a big difference in CDR between urban and rural areas. From 1982 to 1990, the CDR in the country and the countryside declined, and the CDR in cities and towns rose. After 1990, the CDR in cities gradually decreased, the CDR in towns first fell and then rose, and the CDR in the countryside steadily increased. The CDR is affected by changes in the age-specific death rate (ASDR) and age structure.

METHODS

This paper decomposes CDR changes into the influence of declines in ASDR and the impact of age structure changes based on 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010 census data.

RESULTS

The decline in ASDR reduces the CDR, and the aging population increases the CDR (including cities, towns, and the countryside). At the same time, decomposing the difference between the countryside and cities (or the countryside and towns) CDRs found that after 1990, the influence of ASDR differences and age structure differences increased with time. Our results revealed a more significant effect of ASDR differences. The combined effect of two factors (ASDR and age structure) makes the 0, 1-14, 15-64 age groups reduce the CDR, and the 65+ age group increases the CDR. In addition, the 0-year-old group has a not negligible impact on the changes in CDR, although it accounts for a small proportion of the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

The influence of ASDR and age structure differs over time (1982 to 1990, 1990 to 2000, and 2000 to 2010) and across regions (cities, towns, the countryside). Considering the slow decline in ASDR and the accelerated aging population, we can infer that the CDR in 2020 will stabilize or even rise slightly instead of dropping significantly (compared with the CDR in 2010). This study provides a basis for the formulation of relevant public health policies.

Spatiotemporal distribution and sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors associated with primary and secondary syphilis in Guangdong, China, 2005-2017

Background

Previous studies exploring the factors associated with the incidence of syphilis have mostly focused on individual-level factors. However, recent evidence has indicated that social-level factors, such as sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors, also affect the incidence of syphilis. Studies on the sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors associated with syphilis incidence are scarce, and they have rarely controlled for spatial effects, even though syphilis shows spatial autocorrelation.

Methodology/Principal findings

Syphilis data from 21 cities in Guangdong province between 2005 and 2017 were provided by the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The incidence time series, incidence map, and space-time scanning data were used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution. The spatial panel data model was then applied to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors (population density, net migration rate, male:female ratio, and the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents), socioeconomic factors (gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of secondary/tertiary industry), and the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis after controlling for spatial effects. The incidence of syphilis increased slowly from 2005 (11.91 per 100,000) to 2011 (13.42 per 100,000) and then began to decrease, reaching 6.55 per 100,000 in 2017. High-risk clusters of syphilis tended to shift from developed areas to underdeveloped areas. An inverted U-shaped relationship was found between syphilis incidence and gross domestic product per capita. Moreover, syphilis incidence was significantly associated with population density (β = 2.844, P = 0.006), the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents (β = -0.095, P = 0.007), and the net migration rate (β = -0.219, P = 0.002).

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis first increase before decreasing as economic development increases further. These results emphasize the necessity to prevent syphilis in regions at the early stages of economic growth.

Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection that continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. The primary and secondary stages of syphilis are the most transmissive stages in the entire process of the disease. We analyzed primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis data from 2005 to 2017 in Guangzhou, China, provided by the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The results showed that the annual incidence rates of P&S syphilis slightly increased from 2005 to 2011 and then began to decrease in 2017. Cases of P&S syphilis were spatially clustered. The high-risk syphilis clusters tended to shift from developed areas to underdeveloped areas. There may be an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of economic development and the incidence of P&S syphilis, suggesting that the incidence of P&S syphilis first increased before decreasing as the level of economic development increased further. These results emphasize the necessity of preventing syphilis at locations in the early stage of economic growth. Investments in syphilis prevention education for people in regions at early development stages may mitigate the increasing cost of syphilis to future healthcare systems.

Does Emancipation Matter? Fertility of Chinese International Migrants to the United States and Nonmigrants during China’s One-child Policy Period

This article investigates the impact of international migration to the United States on the level and timing of Chinese migrants’ fertility. We compare Chinese women who did not leave the country (non-migrants) and were subject to restrictive family policies from 1974 to 2015 to those who moved to the United States (migrants) and were, thus, “emancipated” from these policies. We theoretically develop and empirically test the emancipation hypothesis that migrants should have a higher fertility than non-migrants, as well as an earlier timing of childbearing. This emancipation effect is hypothesized to decline across birth cohorts. We use data from the 2000 US census, the 2005 American Community Survey, the 2000 Chinese census, and the 2005 Chinese 1 percent Population Survey and discrete-time event history models to analyze first, second, and third births, and migration as joint processes, to account for selection effects. The results show that Chinese migrants to the United States had substantially higher childbearing probabilities after migration, compared with non-migrants in China, especially for second and third births. Moreover, our analyses indicate that the migration process is selective of migrants with lower fertility. Overall, the results show how international migration from China to the United States can lead to an increase in migrant women’s fertility, accounting for disruption, adaptation, and selection effects. The rapidly increased fertility after migration from China to the United States might have implications on other migration contexts where fertility in the origin country is dropping rapidly while that in the destination country is relatively stable.

Investigating the effect of behavioral and demographic characteristics of Iranian women on the number of children ever born

Background: The number of children ever born (CEB) to a woman, as an index of her fertility behavior, are interesting for the governments and demographer policymakers. In recent years, a notable reduction of fertility and population aging in Iran has caused concern among politicians, and it has led to starting new changes in demographic policies. Therefore, to adopting new demographic and health policies programs, identification of factors that affecting CEB is essential.

Methods: To evaluate determinant factors on CEB, information of 20093 married Iranian women aged between 15 and 54 years has been analyzed from the Iranian National Institute of Health Research survey. Based on the structure of data and the possible influential unobserved population heterogeneity on CEB in each city and province, a multilevel count regression model was applied. The analysis was performed using the ‘R’ software (version 3.5) with a significant level of 0.05.

Results: Findings show that the mean and median number of CEB was 2.82 and 2.00 for all women, respectively. Meanwhile, these values were 4.56 and 4.00 for the women who reached menopause. There was a significant unobserved heterogeneity affecting CEB in each province (σ_p=0.018). Also, the results of the multilevel model show that living in an urban area (RR=0.90), higher age at first marriage (RR=0.96), higher education (RR=0.84, RR=0.81), and exposure to mass media (RR=0.87) decrease the risk ratio of the number of CEB (p <0.001).

Conclusion: It seems that the tendency of women to academic education and their access to mass media has a significant effect on reducing childbearing. Therefore, in future planning, attention to these two factors can be useful and helpful to move to increase fertility.

'You are not Young Anymore!': Gender, Age and the Politics of Reproduction in Post-reform China

Based on in-depth interview data and popular culture texts, the current study has explored the politics of reproduction revolving around women's age in contemporary China. Conceptualizing reproduction as a site of contestation and politics between different, and often contradictory, sets of discourses and power structures, I pursue a feminist and social constructivist analysis of the politics of reproduction in the lives of a group of urban professional women who are yet to enter motherhood at their late 20s and 30s. I engage with Inhorn's (2009) concept of 'disrupted reproduction' to highlight the politically, morally and emotionally charged contestations in the 'problematized' reproductive lives of these women. I unveil how Chinese professional women beyond their 'reproductive prime' are discursively constructed as 'disrupters', who fail their femininity test tied to a motherhood identity within the family context, challenge the 'natural' biological law regulating their reproductive bodies, and face a doomed reproductive future fraught with medical, physical and emotional traumas which ART cannot alleviate. Such a discourse renders invisible the structural causes of problems and challenges professional women face in negotiating parenthood, social norms and selfhood, which systematically put them under pervasive social surveillance and discipline.

Psychological Resilience of Second-Pregnancy Women in China: A Cross-sectional Study of Influencing Factors

PURPOSE

The aim of the study was to evaluate the status of psychological resilience among women in their second pregnancy and to investigate the possible influencing factors.

METHODS

A total of 275 women in their second pregnancy and who met the criteria were surveyed from two public hospitals in China from July 2018 to January 2019. The instruments included the General Self-designed Questionnaire, Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, Social Support Rate Scale, and 36-item Pregnancy Stress Rating Scale.

RESULTS

The total psychological resilience score of second-pregnancy women was relatively low. Multivariate regression analysis identified five factors associated with psychological resilience: intimacy with husbands, social support utilization, gender of the first child, high-risk pregnancy of the first child, and the stress caused by worrying about the health and safety of the mother and fetus.

CONCLUSION

Women in their second pregnancy represent a unique population, and their low psychological resilience score deserves attention. Identification of factors contributing to decreased psychological resilience may enable us to design prevention and intervention strategies and to deliver specific psychological supports to pregnant women at high risk of developing negative psychology.

Intergenerational workplace knowledge sharing: challenges and new directions

Purpose

Drawing on theories pertaining to knowledge sharing, ageing at work and human resource practices for ageing workers, this article explores knowledge sharing challenges arising from the interaction between an increasingly ageing workforce and younger employees.

Design/methodology/approach

Contextually, the authors focus on China, where the pace of demographic transformations offers a unique opportunity to investigate knowledge sharing practices in their socio-economic context. Empirically, the authors analyse knowledge sharing behaviours and practices of retail banking professionals in a Chinese big four bank.

Findings

The encouragement of knowledge sharing between younger and older workers should be incorporated into organisations' human resource strategies. The availability of development, maintenance, utilisation and accommodative human resource practices signals to older workers that they are valuable and are worth investing in.

Originality/value

The authors’ contribution to theory and practice is twofold: starting with the identification of perceived knowledge sharing challenges, the authors’ analysis offers important contextually grounded insights into what types of managerial practices are relevant in eliciting successful knowledge sharing within organisations faced with an ageing workforce.

Parental Investment After the Birth of a Sibling: The Effect of Family Size in Low-Fertility China

A large body of research has examined the relationship between family size and child well-being in developing countries, but most of this literature has focused on the consequences of high fertility. The impact of family size in a low-fertility developing country context remains unknown, even though more developing countries are expected to reach below-replacement fertility levels. Set in China between 2010 and 2016, this study examines whether an increase in family size reduces parental investment received by the firstborn child. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study improves on previous research by using direct measures of parental investment, including monetary and nonmonetary investment, and distinguishing household-level from child-specific resources. It also exploits the longitudinal nature of the CFPS to mediate the bias arising from the joint determination of family size and parental investment. Results show that having a younger sibling significantly reduces the average household expenditure per capita. It also directly reduces parental investment received by the firstborn child, with two exceptions: (1) for firstborn boys, having a younger sister does not pose any competition; and (2) for firstborn children whose mothers have completed primary education or more, having a younger brother does not reduce parental educational aspirations for them. Findings from this study provide the first glimpse into how children fare as China transitions to a universal two-child policy regime but have wider implications beyond the Chinese context.

Number of children and the prevalence of later-life major depression and insomnia in women and men: findings from a cross-sectional study of 0.5 million Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy and parenthood have been associated with physical and mental health. Previous literature concerning the impacts of parity on mental health was inconsistent and lack epidemiolocal evidence. China, with growing mental health problems and changing fertility patterns, faces unique challenges. This study aims to examine the relationship between parity and the prevalence of major depression and insomnia among men and women in the Chinese population.

METHODS

Baseline data from a Chinese population-based study of 512,891 adults (59.01% women) from 10 areas, aged 30-79 were analyzed. Number of children was based on self-report by the participants. Major depression (MD) was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Inventory. Insomnia symptoms were accessed by a questionnaire comparable to that used in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between MD/Insomnia and number of children, after stratifications and adjustments.

RESULTS

For women, each additional child was associated with a 9% decreased odds of MD (OR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.88-0.96), with the associations significant for those who lived in urban areas (OR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.70-0.83), or had a lower education (OR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.85-0.94), or had lower household income (OR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.85-0.94), or had ever used alcohol (OR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.84-0.93). The association between per additional children and MD was not significant in men (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 0.97-1.07), but a decreased odd of MD with per additional child was found in men who lived in urban areas (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.71-0.96). For women, each additional child was associated with a 4% decreased odds of insomnia (OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.95-0.96). Each additional child was also associated with a 2% decreased odds of insomnia in men (OR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.97-1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

MD and insomnia were inversely associated with number of children in women while the association was not overall significant in men. The association was mediated by socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. Future mental health public health programs should address parity and sex differences when designing interventions.

Son Preference and the Reproductive Behavior of Rural-Urban Migrant Women of Childbearing Age in China: Empirical Evidence from a Cross-Sectional Data

Son preference has been shown to influence the childbearing behavior of women, especially in China. Existing research has largely focused on this issue using cross-sectional data of urban or rural populations in China, while evidence from the rural-urban migrant women is relatively limited. Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2015, we used logistic regression models to explore the relationship of son preference and reproductive behavior of rural-urban migrant women in China. The results show that the son preference of migrant women is still strong, which leads women with only daughters to have significantly higher possibility of having another child and results in a higher imbalance in the sex ratio with higher parity. Migrant women giving birth to a son is a protective factor against having a second child compared to women whose first child was a girl. Similarly, the effects of the gender of the previous child on women’s progression from having two to three children showed the same result that is consistent with a preference for sons. These findings have implications for future public strategies to mitigate the son preference among migrant women and the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth.

Impact of PM2.5 on Second Birth Intentions of China's Floating Population in a Low Fertility Context

The total fertility rate of the Chinese population has declined dramatically over the last three decades. Research has substantiated the causal link between particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects. However, the impact of PM on the birth intentions or fertility behavior of the childbearing population remains understudied. The paper analyzes the impact of PM_2.5 concentration (a mixture of extremely small solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air) on the second birth intentions of the Chinese floating population. We used urban migrant population matching data at the prefectural level for the analysis. The unique datasets were derived from the Chinese Floating Population Dynamic Survey in 2014 administered by the National Health Commission, the National Prefecture-level City Matching Data administered by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and the air pollution index PM_2.5 collected by the Green Peace Organization. The results show that PM_2.5 concentration has a negative impact on the second birth intentions of the floating population. This impact exhibits marked regional heterogeneity: the desire for a second birth across migrant groups living in south China decreases if PM_2.5 concentration goes up, while migrants coming from, and living in, north China show strong intentions to have a second birth despite an increase in PM_2.5 concentration in northern cities. The results have direct implications for the Chinese government at various levels to play a vital role in making and implementing environmental policies on the mitigation of smog to effectively safeguard the health of individuals and communities and potentially raise China’s fertility rate.

Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior to couples' fertility decision-making in Inner Mongolia, China

China relaxed its family planning policy and adopted a universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to actively address the country's aging trend. However, the policy has failed to have any significant effect on the fertility rate of many provinces. In light of the country having the highest sex ratio at birth in the world and the huge burden of the aging population, improving the fertility rate is an urgent priority in China. This facility-based cross-sectional survey aimed to study determinants of fertility decision-making among couples based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study was conducted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. A structured self-administered questionnaire was completed by 1,399 couples, consisting of wives aged 20-49 years and their husbands. Based on the structural equation modeling method of analysis, determinants of fertility decision-making were perceived behavior control (perceived importance of having a stable income and cost of raising a child), subjective norms (perceived social pressure about "sex preference of the newborn by themselves and their partner") and attitudes (only healthy parents can have a child). Other significant factors influencing fertility decision were ethnicity and education level, with ethnic minority couples having less perception of social norm towards fertility and those with higher education having higher perceived control toward having a (further) child. The study reveals the importance of the China's infrastructure and public facilities to support child-rearing to increase the fertility rate among couples of child-bearing age, which in turn will reduce the burden associated with an aging society.

Reading the geography of India’s district-level fertility differentials: a spatial econometric approach

India has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.

The decline in China's fertility level: a decomposition analysis

Many factors have contributed to the decline in China's fertility level. Using China's population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China's fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.

Within-couple configuration of gender-related attitudes and its association with marital satisfaction in Chinese marriage: A dyadic, pattern-analytic approach

OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to understand the ways in which spouses' gender-related attitudes are configured within couples and how such configurations are linked to marital satisfaction in Chinese marriage.

METHOD

Latent profile analysis was conducted using dyadic data from a nationwide large sample of Chinese couples from the China Family Panel Studies (N = 7,257 couples; M_{years of marriage} = 28.36, SD = 12.84; M_{age for wives} = 52.38, SD = 12.63; M_{age for husbands} = 50.51, SD = 12.37).

RESULTS

Four profile groups were identified: the "modern female and traditional male" group (MFTM); the "traditional female and modern male" group; the "child-oriented" group; and the "traditional female and traditional male" group. Husbands' and wives' marital satisfaction varied across groups in different patterns (yet all relevant effect sizes were modest). In general, husbands in the congruent group reported higher satisfaction than did those in the incongruent groups, whereas wives in the "MFTM" group reported lower satisfaction than did those in the other groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Such findings shed light on the understudied heterogeneity that inherently exists in the within-couple patterning of gender-related attitudes and its implications for marital well-being in a Chinese cultural context.

A retrospective and predictive study of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018

A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on age-specific and birth-order-wise crude fertility rates and total fertility rates based on national sample surveys by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Unexpectedly, such fertility datasets were officially deleted since 2016. A time-series predictive study was conducted based on the Holt's Exponential Smoothing models to restore the deleted fertility data for 2016 and beyond, allowing a comprehensive analysis of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018. In all, population structure was aging fast, fertility rates continued to decrease to a substantially low level, and three Northeastern provinces displayed notable socioeconomic issues associated with low-fertility trap. Adjustment is essential for China to timely remove its still-present birth limit and devise social policies to revert the fertility downtrend.

FAR BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN URBAN CHINA

China's urban population has experienced rapid fertility decline over the past six decades. This drastic change will have a significant impact on China's demographic, social and economic future. However, the patterns and characteristics of urban China's fertility decline have not been systematically examined. This study analyses the trends and age patterns of fertility in urban China since the 1950s, and summarizes the major characteristics of reproductive behaviours into four 'lows': extremely 'low' level of fertility; 'low' proportion of two and higher parity births; 'low' mean age at birth; and 'low' level of childlessness. The paper argues that the highly homogenous reproductive behaviours found in China's now near 800 million urban population have been in part shaped by the country's unprecedented government intervention in family planning. The 'later, longer, fewer' campaign in the 1970s and the 'one-child' policy, in particular, have left clear imprints on China's reproductive norms and fertility patterns. The government-led family planning programme, however, has not been the only driving force of fertility decline. A wide range of social, economic, political and cultural changes have also affected the transition in family formation, reproductive behaviour and fertility patterns, and this has become increasingly prominent in the past two decades.

Determinants of change in fertility pattern among women in Uganda during the period 2006-2011

Background

Studies on fertility in Uganda have attributed fertility reduction to a shift in the overall characteristics of women of reproductive age. It is not clear whether the reduction in fertility is due to changing socioeconomic and demographic characteristics over time or stems from the shifts in the reproductive behavior of women. In this paper we examine how fertility rates have changed between 2006 and 2011 and whether these changes have resulted from changing characteristics or from changing reproductive behavior of women.

Methods

Using the 2006 and 2011 Demographic and Health Survey data for Uganda, Multivariate Poisson Decomposition techniques were applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility.

Results

Changing characteristics of women aged 15–49 years significantly contributed to the overall change in fertility from 2006 to 2011. The change observed in older age at first marriage was the major contributor to the changes in fertility. The contribution that can be attributed to changes in reproductive behavior was not significant.

Conclusions

This study finds that the major contribution to the reduction in fertility between 2006 and 2011 was from increased education and delayed marriage among women. Continued improvement in secondary school completion, will lead to older age at first marriage and will continue to be an important factor in Uganda’s declining fertility rates.

Evolutionary demography of age at last birth: integrating approaches from human behavioural ecology and cultural evolution

Cultural evolutionary theory and human behavioural ecology offer different, but compatible approaches to understanding human demographic behaviour. For much of their 30 history, these approaches have been deployed in parallel, with few explicit attempts to integrate them empirically. In this paper, we test hypotheses drawn from both approaches to explore how reproductive behaviour responds to cultural changes among Mosuo agriculturalists of China. Specifically, we focus on how age at last birth (ALB) varies in association with temporal shifts in fertility policies, spatial variation and kinship ecologies. We interpret temporal declines in ALB as plausibly consistent with demographic front-loading of reproduction in light of fertility constraints and later ages at last birth in matrilineal populations relative to patrilineal ones as consistent with greater household cooperation for reproductive purposes in the former. We find little evidence suggesting specific transmission pathways for the spread of norms regulating ALB, but emphasize that the rapid pace of change strongly suggests that learning processes were involved in the general decline in ALB over time. The different predictions of models we employ belie their considerable overlap and the potential for a synthetic approach to generate more refined tests of evolutionary hypotheses of demographic behaviour.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'.

The changing relationship between marriage and childbearing in Hong Kong

Births outside marriage (BoM) account for around 15% of all births globally. However, the distribution around the world is very uneven, as are cultural and political attitudes towards them. Studies from East Asia have shown that the percentage of such births is very low, with only modest increases in recent years. The orthodox demographic view holds that the maintenance of conservative views around the relationship between marriage and childbearing can play a role in keeping fertility low. Prenuptial pregnancies (PNP) (where births occur within eight months of marriage) have been identified as a growing phenomenon in Japan, possibly being an ‘alternative’ Asian pathway to family formation. As yet, no comprehensive statistical analysis of the trends of BoM or PNP has been performed for Hong Kong. Using a comprehensive microdata set of birth registration in Hong Kong from 1984–2015 (N = 1,680,831) we provide evidence of recent trends in such ‘alternative pathways’ to family formation and examine predictors through regression analysis. Our results indicate, in common with elsewhere in East Asia, low overall period rates of either BoM or PNP (although the latter has risen notably in recent years). While more recent birth cohorts exhibit higher prevalence of such births, their incomplete nature and higher expected propensity suggests that the figures are exaggerated. In our regression analysis, we find that lower educational attainment is a strong predictor of both BoM and PNP, suggesting that a bifurcation of experience may be occurring. This adds further evidence to the theory that the maintenance of traditional family formation systems in the context of revolutionised educational and work opportunities for women mean that the opportunity costs of the ‘marriage package’ become too high. Current disparities in rights and privileges between married and unmarried parents–and especially their children–means that targeted family planning services and support for vulnerable families are policy priorities.