Cohort Abortion Measures for the United States

Gender linked fate explains lower legal abortion support among white married women

Abortion is uniquely connected to women’s experiences yet women’s attitudes towards legal abortion vary across the pro-choice/anti-abortion spectrum. Existing research has focused on sociodemographic characteristics to explain women’s levels of abortion support. Here, we argue that abortion attitudes vary with women’s perceptions of gender linked fate, or the extent to which some women see their fates as tied to other women. Drawing upon existing research showing that married white women report lower levels of gender linked fate than their non-married counterparts, we assess these relationships for abortion attitudes applying the 2012 American National Election Survey (n = 2,173). Using mediation analysis, we show that lower levels of gender linked fate among married white women (vs. non-married white women) explain their stronger opposition to abortion. As many state governments are increasingly legislating restricted access to legal abortion, understanding factors explaining opposition to legal abortion is urgently important.

Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited.

Methods

We applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence until 2035. We compared TB incidence projections with demography fixed in 2018 to projections accounting for demographic change.

Results

Our models quantified increasing incidence rates with age and declining temporal trends. By 2035, the forecast suggests that the TB incidence rate in Taiwan will decrease by 54% (95% Prediction Interval (PI): 45%-59%) compared to 2015, while most age-specific incidence rates will reduce by more than 60%. In 2035, adults aged 65 and above will make up 78% of incident TB cases. Forecast TB incidence in 2035 accounting for demographic change will be 39% (95% PI: 36%-42%) higher than without population ageing.

Conclusions

Age-specific incidence forecasts coupled with demographic forecasts can inform the impact of population ageing on TB epidemics. The TB control programme in Taiwan should develop plans specific to older age groups and their care needs.

Abortion experience and self-efficacy: exploring socioeconomic profiles of GHANAIAN women

Background

Unsafe abortions remain a major global public health concern and despite its prevalence, unsafe abortions remain one of the most neglected global health challenges. The proportion of women in Ghana who have experienced unsafe abortions has increased from 45% in 2007 to 62% in 2017. Given the noted consequences of (unsafe) abortions on women health, it is important to explore factors correlated with women’s abortion decisions and why they opt for safe or unsafe methods. The study also examines determinants of over 6,000 Ghanaian women’s self-efficacy in abortion decision-making, given that this is likely to affect the likelihood of future abortions.

Methods

Using cluster-level Geographic Information System data from the 2017 Ghana Maternal Health Survey, the study provides a hot spot analysis of the incidence of abortion in the country. The study also makes use of Probit multivariate analyses also show the correlates of abortion with socio-economic factors.

Results

Results suggest that abortion among women is positively correlated with the absence of partners, low education levels, higher household wealth, lower parity and family size, polygyny and Christian religious background.

Conclusion

It is observed that the groups of women with higher abortion self-efficacy are the same groups of women who are more likely to opt for safer abortion methods, indicating some correlation, albeit indirect, between abortion self-efficacy and women’s abortion behaviors in Ghana. Relevant policy applications are adduced from these research findings.

Trajectories of women's abortion-related care: A conceptual framework

We present a new conceptual framework for studying trajectories to obtaining abortion-related care. It assembles for the first time all of the known factors influencing a trajectory and encourages readers to consider the ways these macro- and micro-level factors operate in multiple and sometimes conflicting ways. Based on presentation to and feedback from abortion experts (researchers, providers, funders, policymakers and advisors, advocates) (n = 325) between 03/06/2014 and 22/08/2015, and a systematic mapping of peer-reviewed literature (n = 424) published between 01/01/2011 and 30/10/2017, our framework synthesises the factors shaping abortion trajectories, grouped into three domains: abortion-specific experiences, individual contexts, and (inter)national and sub-national contexts. Our framework includes time-dependent processes involved in an individual trajectory, starting with timing of pregnancy awareness. This framework can be used to guide testable hypotheses about enabling and inhibiting influences on care-seeking behaviour and consideration about how abortion trajectories might be influenced by policy or practice. Research based on understanding of trajectories has the potential to improve women's experiences and outcomes of abortion-related care.

HINDU-MUSLIM FERTILITY DIFFERENTIAL IN INDIA: A COHORT APPROACH

Hindus and Muslims together account for 94% of the population of India. The fertility differential between these two religious groups is a sensitive and hotly debated issue in political and academic circles. However, the debate is mostly based on a period approach to fertility change, and there have been some problems with the reliability of period fertility data. This study investigated cohort fertility patterns among Hindus and Muslims and the causes of the relatively higher level of fertility among Muslims. Data from the three National Family Health Surveys conducted in India since the early 1990s were analysed using a six-parameter special form of the Gompertz model and multiple linear regression models. The results show a gap of more than 1.3 children per woman between those Muslim and Hindu women who ended/will end their reproductive period in the calendar years 1993 to 2025. The socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of Muslims explain 31.2% of the gap in fertility between Muslims and Hindus, while the desire for more children among Muslims explains an additional 18.2% of the gap in fertility.