Improving predictive modeling in pediatric drug development: pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and mechanistic modeling

Modelling and simulation as research tools in paediatric drug development

Purpose

Although practical and ethical constraints impose special requirements for the evaluation of treatment safety and efficacy in children, the main issue remains the empirical basis for patient stratification and dose selection at the early stage of the development of new chemical and biological entities. The aim of this review is to highlight the advantages and limitations of modelling and simulation (M&S) in supporting decision making during paediatric drug development.

Methods

A literature search on Pubmed’s database Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) has been performed to retrieve relevant publications on the use of model-based approaches in paediatric drug development and therapeutics.

Results

M&S enable the assessment of the impact of different regimens as well as of different populations on a drug’s safety and efficacy profile. It has been widely used in the last two decades to support pre-clinical and early clinical drug development. In fact, M&S have been applied to drug development as decision tools, as study optimization tools and as data analysis tools. In particular, this approach can be used to support dose adjustment in specific subgroups of a population. M&S may therefore allow the individualisation of drug therapy in children, improving the risk–benefit ratio in this population.

Conclusions

The lack of consensus on how to assess the impact of developmental factors on pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, efficacy and safety has so far prevented a broader use of M&S. This problem is compounded by the limited collaboration between stakeholders, which prevents data sharing in this field. In this article, we emphasise the need for a concerted effort to promote the effective use of this technology in paediatric drug development and avoid unnecessary exposure of children to clinical trials.

The National Institutes of Health and the Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act

The majority of drugs used to treat children are not labeled for use in children. The Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act of 2002, re-authorized as the US FDA Amendments Act of 2007, directs the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to sponsor pediatric clinical trials of drugs lacking patent protection, if the FDA request for studies has been declined. The NIH is currently sponsoring 17 clinical studies. Challenges encountered include a paucity of investigators who are trained in pediatric clinical pharmacology; inadequate knowledge of the mechanisms of drug action in a growing child; and lack of pediatric formulations.

Integrated pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in drug development

Drug development is a complex, lengthy and expensive process. Pharmaceutical companies and regulatory authorities have recognised that the drug development process needs optimisation for efficiency in view of the return on investments. Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics are the two main principles determining the relationship between dose and response. This article provides an update on integrated approaches towards drug development by linking pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and disease aspects into mathematical models. Gradually, a transition is taking place from a rather empirical approach towards a modelling- and simulation-based approach to drug development. The main learning phases should be phases 0, I and II, whereas phase III studies should merely have a confirmatory purpose. In model-based drug development, mechanism-based mathematical models, which are iteratively refined along the path of development, incorporate the accumulating knowledge of the investigational drug, the disease and their mutual interference in different subsets of the target population. These models facilitate the design of the next study and improve the probability of achieving the projected efficacy and safety endpoints. In this article, several theoretical and practical aspects of an integrated approach towards drug development are discussed, together with some case studies from different therapeutic areas illustrating the application of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic disease models at different stages of drug development.