Impacts of biofuels on climate change, water use, and land use

Assessment of the water-energy-food nexus in the life cycle of energy products

Given the urgent need to achieve energy security and transition from conventional to renewable energy sources, the energy sector is expanding rapidly. However, this growth often involves trade-offs with food and water resources. One way to address this complex interplay is to adopt the Water-Energy-Food nexus within a Life Cycle Assessment. This approach allows the analysis of interrelationships among the three sectors, aiming to foster synergies and minimize trade-offs. While numerous indicators exist to quantify the water-energy relationship, no similar approaches for the energy-food relationship could be found. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we introduce a novel indicator that measures the amount of food that could be produced causing the same land use impact in form of biodiversity damage as 1 MJ of the energy product. Together with another existing indicator that measures the water scarcity footprint per megajoule, a new framework for the analysis of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus of energy products is developed. Additionally, we present an optional net factor for both indicators. This factor helps to consider the energy use within the product's processes, contributing to a more comprehensive analysis. In our case study, we implement the outlined framework by examining biodiesel production in Argentina. We specifically analyze the impacts of two distinct agricultural technologies-Early and Late Soybean-on the Food and Water sectors. Our findings reveal that for every megajoule of the evaluated product, one could produce 62 or 93 kcal of food causing the same species loss. Additionally, the production process incurs a water scarcity footprint of 6.5 or 6.8 liters per megajoule, depending on the technology used. The proposed framework offers a means to mitigate the water and land use impacts associated with energy products. Consequently, it has the potential to enhance the WEF nexus.

Civil aviation emissions in Argentina

The impact of aviation on climate change is reflected in increasing emissions of CO2 and other pollutants from fuel burning emitted at high altitudes, representing 2.9 % of total Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in 2019. However, mitigations options for decarbonization of aviation are difficult to implement given operational safety, technology maturity, energy density and other constraints. One alternative for mitigation is the use of certified sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with lower carbon intensity than conventional jet fuel (CJF). This research presents an inventory of Argentine civil aviation emissions for its domestic and international flights, and analyzes the possibility of supplying SAF as a mitigation strategy given its abundant biomass production. Argentine aviation activity is presented as a monthly 4D (latitude, longitude, altitude and time) spatial inventory for the interval 2001-2021, based on origin and destination city pairs, aircraft types and airlines. Fuel consumption and pollutant emissions were calculated for landing-and-take-off and cruise phases. Monthly domestic ranged from 67 to 179 kt CO_2eq (2001-2019). Annual peak values occurred in 2019 consuming 560 kt CJF and direct emitting of 1.77 Mt CO_2eq. While Revenue-Passenger-Kilometer (RPK) grew almost 4 times (4.18 × 10⁹ in 2001 to 16.42 × 10⁹ in 2019), the number of flights changed only 1.5 times (from 98,000 in 2002 to 152,000 in 2019). The main efficiency indexes varied from 97 t CJF/RPK, 308 gCO_2eq/RPK to 34 t CJF/RPK, 107 gCO_2eq/RPK between 2001 and 2019, respectively, showing an average annual improvement of 3.5 % due to partial fleet renewal, especially from 2015 onwards. Emissions of other pollutants for 2019 reached total values of CO 14.14 kt; NOx 6.77 kt; PM tot 55.12 kt. For the period 2001-2019, international aviation consumed between 1 Mt - 1.5 Mt CJF, directly emitting between 3.30 and 4.80 Mt of CO_2eq; RPKs went from 6.234 × 10⁹ to 20.524 × 10⁹; the efficiency indices ranged from 529 to 240 gCO_2eq/RPK. The most important changes occurred with an optimization of routes and number of flights and the replacement of the four-engines (B747, A380) by more efficient twin-engines (B777, A330) aircraft. Argentina is not required to any offsetting regulatory program due to its small aviation market (approx. 0.22 % global market in 2019), nor has to date certified SAF production pathways, nevertheless it has potential for SAF availability based on actual biofuels production (ethanol, biodiesel and soybean oil) and biomass feedstock's existences. In this sense this studies proposes that 2019 domestic fuel consumption could be supplied using 79 % exportable amounts of sugarcane ethanol (257 ± 53 kt) (by Ethanol to Jet ETJ) and 34 % of exportable soybean oil (1079 ± 160 kt) (by hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids- HEFA) pathways. For this scenario average GHG emissions reached 1.321 ± 0.115 Mt CO2eq; which would imply a 62 % of the current emission value using CJF (2.17Mt CO2eq), or savings of about 838 kt CO2eq (38 %). At the 2019 level of harvest and biofuel production, up to 1.4 Mt of SAF could be produced from sugarcane ethanol/ETJ and soybean oil/HEFA mitigating up to 1.8 MtCO2eq. A 35 kt CO_2eq annual sectoral national mitigation strategy could be reached by using 14 kt of SAF.

Metabolic engineering Yarrowia lipolytica for a dual biocatalytic system to produce fatty acid ethyl esters from renewable feedstock in situ and in one pot

Given the grave concerns over increasing consumption of petroleum resources and dramatic environmental changes arising from carbon dioxide emissions worldwide, microbial biosynthesis of fatty acid ethyl ester (FAEE) biofuels as renewable and sustainable replacements for petroleum-based fuels has attracted much attention. As one of the most important microbial chassis, the nonconventional oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica has emerged as a paradigm organism for the production of several advanced biofuels and chemicals. Here, we report the engineering of Y. lipolytica for use as an efficient dual biocatalytic system for in situ and one-pot production of FAEEs from renewable feedstock. Compared to glucose with 5.7% (w/w) conversion rate to FAEEs, sunflower seed oil in the culture medium was efficiently used to generate FAEEs with 84% (w/w) conversion rate to FAEEs by the engineered Y. lipolytica strain GQY20 that demonstrates an optimized intercellular heterologous FAEE synthesis pathway. In particular, the titer of extracellular FAEEs from sunflower seed oil reached 9.9 g/L, 10.9-fold higher than that with glucose as a carbon source. An efficient dual biocatalytic system combining ex vivo and strengthened in vitro FAEE production routes was constructed by overexpression of a lipase (Lip2) variant in the background strain GQY20, which further increased FAEEs levels to 13.5 g/L. Notably, deleting the ethanol metabolism pathway had minimal impact on FAEE production. Finally, waste cooking oil, a low-cost oil-based substance, was used as a carbon source for FAEE production in the Y. lipolytica dual biocatalytic system, resulting in production of 12.5 g/L FAEEs. Thus, the developed system represents a promising green and sustainable process for efficient biodiesel production. KEY POINTS: • FAEEs were produced by engineered Yarrowia lipolytica. • A Lip2 variant was overexpressed in the yeast to create a dual biocatalytic system. • Waste cooking oil as a substrate resulted in a high titer of 12.5 g/L FAEEs.

Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems

Increased use of bioenergy, driven by ambitious climate and energy policies, has led to an upsurge in international bioenergy trade. Simultaneously, it is evident that every node of the bioenergy supply chain, from cultivation of energy crops to production of electricity and heat, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, climate change assessments of bioenergy supply chains neither account for the global nature of the bioenergy market, nor the complexity and dynamic interconnectivity between and within different sub-systems in which the bioenergy supply chain is embedded, thereby neglecting potential compounding and cascading impacts of climate change. In this paper, systems thinking is utilised to develop an analytical framework to address this gap, and aided by causal loop diagrams, cascading impacts of climate change are identified for a case study concerning imports of wood pellets from the United States to the European Union. The findings illustrate how the complexity and interconnectivity of the wood pellet supply system predispose the supply chain to various cascading climate change impacts stemming from environmental, social, political and economic domains, and highlight the value of using system-based analysis tools for studying such complex and dynamic systems.

A bibliometric study about energy, environment, and climate change

Using the extended science citation index database (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) databases, this paper analyzed the characteristics of publications, research foundations, research hotspots, and the evolutionary tracks of studies in the field of energy, environment, and climate change from 1990 to 2019 using a bibliometric method. This method is useful because it involves the quantitative analysis of large amounts of literature, using mathematical and statistical method. The results showed that the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and China were the countries with the most published papers in the field. The US plays a key role in the cooperation between international institutions. An assessment conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) created the standard scientific reference for the research on climate change and its consequences. From 2006 to 2016, a large number of co-cited papers laid a solid foundation for research in the field. During this period, the research focused on the impact of climate change on the ecological environment, began to propose different countermeasures, and formed a set of mature research methods. From 2017 to 2019, there was an acceleration in the growth rate of the number of published articles. Strategies to address climate change, including renewable energy and energy transition, were the focus during this phase. Future studies are expected to focus on climate change mitigation strategies and energy policies. The findings provide a reference for researchers and can help policy makers balance economic development with environmental protection.

Indicators of Land, Water, Energy and Food (LWEF) Nexus Resource Drivers: A Perspective on Environmental Degradation in the Gidabo Watershed, Southern Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, land, water, energy and food (LWEF) nexus resources are under pressure due to population growth, urbanization and unplanned consumption. The effect of this pressure has been a widely discussed topic in nexus resource literature. The evidence shows the predominantly negative impact of this; however, the impact of these factors is less explored from a local scale. As a result, securing nexus resources is becoming a serious challenge for the country. This necessitates the identification of the driving factors for the sustainable utilization of scarce LWEF nexus resources. Our study provides a systemic look at the driving factor indicators that induce nexus resource degradation. We use the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to develop the indicators’ weights, and use a Path Analysis Model (PAM) to quantitatively estimate the effect of the driving factor indicators on the LWEF nexus resources. The results indicate that social (48%), economic (19%), and policy and institutional changes (14%) are the major nexus resource driving factor indicators. The path analysis results indicate that among the social driving factor indicators, population growth and consumption patterns have a significant direct effect on the LWEF nexus, with path coefficients of 0.15 and 0.089, respectively. Similarly, the potential of LWEF nexus resources is also influenced by the institutional and policy change drivers, such as outdated legislation and poor institutional structure, with path coefficients of 0.46 and 0.39, respectively. This implies that population growth and consumption patterns are the leading social drivers, while outdated legislation and poor institutional structures are the institutional and policies change drivers which have a potential impact on LWEF nexus resource degradation. Similarly, other driving factors such as environmental, economic and technological factors also affect nexus resources to varying degrees. The findings of our study show the benefits of managing the identified driving factors for the protection of LWEF nexus resources, which have close links with human health and the environment. In order to alleviate the adverse effects of driving factors, all stakeholders need to show permanent individual and collective commitment. Furthermore, we underline the necessity of applying LWEF nexus approaches to the management of these drivers, and to optimize the environmental and social outcomes.

Potential Bioenergy Production from Miscanthus × giganteus in Brandenburg: Producing Bioenergy and Fostering Other Ecosystem Services while Ensuring Food Self-Sufficiency in the Berlin-Brandenburg Region

Miscanthus × giganteus (hereafter Miscanthus) is a perennial crop characterized by its high biomass production, low nutrient requirements, its ability for soil restoration, and its cultivation potential on marginal land. The development of the bioenergy sector in the state of Brandenburg (Germany), with maize as the dominant crop, has recently drawn attention to its negative environmental impacts, competition with food production, and uncertainties regarding its further development toward the state’s bioenergy targets. This study aimed to estimate the potential bioenergy production in Brandenburg by cultivating Miscanthus only on marginal land, thereby avoiding competition with food production in the Berlin-Brandenburg city-region (i.e., foodshed), after using the Metropolitan Foodshed and Self-sufficiency Scenario (MFSS) model. We estimated that by 2030, the Berlin-Brandenburg foodshed would require around 1.13 million hectares to achieve 100% food self-sufficiency under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, and hence there would be around 390,000 ha land left for bioenergy production. Our results suggest that the region would require about 569,000 ha of land of maize to generate 58 PJ—the bioenergy target of the state of Brandenburg for 2030—which is almost 179,000 ha more than the available area for bioenergy production. However, under Miscanthus plantation, the required area would be reduced by 2.5 times to 232,000 ha. Therefore, Miscanthus could enable Brandenburg to meet its bioenergy target by 2030, while at the same time avoiding the trade-offs with food production, and also providing a potential for soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration of around 255,200 t C yr-1, leading to an improvement in the soil fertility and other ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity), compared with bioenergy generated from maize.

A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018

Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.

Biofuel consumption, biodiversity, and the environmental Kuznets curve: trivariate analysis in a panel of biofuel consuming countries

This study examined the relationship between biofuel consumption, forest biodiversity, and a set of national scale indicators of per capita income, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, trade openness, and population density with a panel data of 12 biofuels consuming countries for a period of 2000 to 2013. The study used Global Environmental Facility (GEF) biodiversity benefits index and forest biodiversity index in an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. The results confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between GEF biodiversity index and per capita income, while there is flat/no relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and between forest biodiversity and economic growth models. FDI inflows and trade openness both reduce carbon emissions while population density and biofuel consumption increase carbon emissions and decrease GEF biodiversity index. Trade openness supports to increases GEF biodiversity index while it decreases forest biodiversity index and biofuel consumption in a region.

Energy trends and the water-energy binomium for Brazil

According to the demands of energy saving and carbon emission reduction, the water vs. energy nexus has become a major concern worldwide. Brazil occupies a singular position in the global energy system. A major portion of the Brazilian occupancies has electricity and the energy system expansion that, at first, possesses adequate means for supporting the economic growing may experience some turnovers. The Brazil determination through alternative fuels was a natural choice, given its large hydropower potential and land agricultural base. In the transportation sector Brazil has developed its energy matrix towards an important rate of ethanol and biodiesel. Although those fuels are low carbon emitter, they may probably not be an affordable alternative regarding land use, food security and water footprint. In this way, considering the recent advances in the exploration of oil from Pre-salt (9-15 million barrels) and the discovery of shale gas wells up to 245 tcf, together to unfavorable social and environmental issues associated to biofuels, the Brazilian energy matrix might turn back to the fossil fuels again. These represent challenges to the Brazilian policymakers and how they will be solved will reflect not only in Brazil but also to the world at large.

Cyanobacteria as photosynthetic biocatalysts: a systems biology perspective

A review of cyanobacterial biocatalysts highlighting their metabolic features that argues for the need for systems-level metabolic engineering.

Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis

Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

Toward a more comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions assessment of biofuels: the case of forest-based fischer-tropsch diesel production in Finland

Increasing the use of biofuels influences atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Although widely recognized, uncertainties related to the particular impacts are typically ignored or only partly considered. In this paper, various sources of uncertainty related to the GHG emission savings of biofuels are considered comprehensively and transparently through scenario analysis and stochastic simulation. Technology and feedstock production chain-specific factors, market-mediated factors and climate policy time frame issues are reflected using as a case study Fischer-Tropsch diesel derived from boreal forest biomass in Finland. This case study shows that the GHG emission savings may be positive or negative in many of the cases studied, and are subject to significant uncertainties, which are mainly determined by market-mediated factors related to fossil diesel substitution. Regardless of the considerable uncertainties, some robust conclusions could be drawn; it was likely of achieving some sort of but unlikely of achieving significant savings in the GHG emissions within the 100 year time frame in many cases. Logging residues (branches) performed better than stumps and living stem wood in terms of the GHG emission savings, which could be increased mainly by blocking carbon leakage. Forest carbon stock changes also significantly contributed to the GHG emission savings.

Fatty acid synthesis in Escherichia coli and its applications towards the production of fatty acid based biofuels

The idea of renewable and regenerative resources has inspired research for more than a hundred years. Ideally, the only spent energy will replenish itself, like plant material, sunlight, thermal energy or wind. Biodiesel or ethanol are examples, since their production relies mainly on plant material. However, it has become apparent that crop derived biofuels will not be sufficient to satisfy future energy demands. Thus, especially in the last decade a lot of research has focused on the production of next generation biofuels. A major subject of these investigations has been the microbial fatty acid biosynthesis with the aim to produce fatty acids or derivatives for substitution of diesel. As an industrially important organism and with the best studied microbial fatty acid biosynthesis, Escherichia coli has been chosen as producer in many of these studies and several reviews have been published in the fields of E. coli fatty acid biosynthesis or biofuels. However, most reviews discuss only one of these topics in detail, despite the fact, that a profound understanding of the involved enzymes and their regulation is necessary for efficient genetic engineering of the entire pathway. The first part of this review aims at summarizing the knowledge about fatty acid biosynthesis of E. coli and its regulation, and it provides the connection towards the production of fatty acids and related biofuels. The second part gives an overview about the achievements by genetic engineering of the fatty acid biosynthesis towards the production of next generation biofuels. Finally, the actual importance and potential of fatty acid-based biofuels will be discussed.

Pyrosequencing reveals high-temperature cellulolytic microbial consortia in Great Boiling Spring after in situ lignocellulose enrichment

To characterize high-temperature cellulolytic microbial communities, two lignocellulosic substrates, ammonia fiber-explosion-treated corn stover and aspen shavings, were incubated at average temperatures of 77 and 85°C in the sediment and water column of Great Boiling Spring, Nevada. Comparison of 109,941 quality-filtered 16S rRNA gene pyrosequences (pyrotags) from eight enrichments to 37,057 quality-filtered pyrotags from corresponding natural samples revealed distinct enriched communities dominated by phylotypes related to cellulolytic and hemicellulolytic Thermotoga and Dictyoglomus, cellulolytic and sugar-fermenting Desulfurococcales, and sugar-fermenting and hydrogenotrophic Archaeoglobales. Minor enriched populations included close relatives of hydrogenotrophic Thermodesulfobacteria, the candidate bacterial phylum OP9, and candidate archaeal groups C2 and DHVE3. Enrichment temperature was the major factor influencing community composition, with a negative correlation between temperature and richness, followed by lignocellulosic substrate composition. This study establishes the importance of these groups in the natural degradation of lignocellulose at high temperatures and suggests that a substantial portion of the diversity of thermophiles contributing to consortial cellulolysis may be contained within lineages that have representatives in pure culture.

Spatially-explicit life cycle assessment of sun-to-wheels transportation pathways in the U.S

Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alternative to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five different sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cycle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV.

Toward systems metabolic engineering in cyanobacteria: opportunities and bottlenecks

We recently assessed the metabolism of Synechocystis sp PCC6803 through a constraints-based reconstruction and analysis approach and identified its main metabolic properties. These include reduced metabolic robustness, in contrast to a high photosynthetic robustness driving the optimal autotrophic metabolism. Here, we address how these metabolic features affect biotechnological capabilities of this bacterium. The search for growth-coupled overproducer strains revealed that the carbon flux re-routing, but not the electron flux, is significantly more challenging under autotrophic conditions than under mixo- or heterotrophic conditions. We also found that the blocking of the light-driven metabolism was required for carbon flux re-routing under mixotrophic conditions. Overall, our analysis, which represents the first systematic evaluation of the biotechnological capabilities of a photosynthetic organism, paradoxically suggests that the light-driven metabolism itself and its unique metabolic features are the main bottlenecks in harnessing the biotechnological potential of Synechocystis.

Cellulose degradation by Sulfolobus solfataricus requires a cell-anchored endo-β-1-4-glucanase

A sequence encoding a putative extracellular endoglucanase (sso1354) was identified in the complete genome sequence of Sulfolobus solfataricus. The encoded protein shares signature motifs with members of glycoside hydrolases family 12. After an unsuccessful first attempt at cloning the full-length coding sequences in Escherichia coli, an active but unstable recombinant enzyme lacking a 27-residue N-terminal sequence was generated. This 27-amino-acid sequence shows significant similarity with corresponding regions in the sugar binding proteins AraS, GlcS, and TreS of S. solfataricus that are responsible for anchoring them to the plasma membrane. A strategy based on an effective vector/host genetic system for Sulfolobus and on expression control by the promoter of the S. solfataricus gene which encodes the glucose binding protein allowed production of the enzyme in sufficient quantities for study. In fact, the enzyme expressed in S. solfataricus was stable and highly thermoresistant and showed optimal activity at low pH and high temperature. The protein was detected mainly in the plasma membrane fraction, confirming the structural similarity to the sugar binding proteins. The results of the protein expression in the two different hosts showed that the SSO1354 enzyme is endowed with an endo-β-1-4-glucanase activity and specifically hydrolyzes cellulose. Moreover, it also shows significant but distinguishable specificity toward several other sugar polymers, such as lichenan, xylan, debranched arabinan, pachyman, and curdlan.

Direct climate effects of perennial bioenergy crops in the United States

Biomass-derived energy offers the potential to increase energy security while mitigating anthropogenic climate change, but a successful path toward increased production requires a thorough accounting of costs and benefits. Until recently, the efficacy of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on biogeochemical consequences. Here we show that the biogeophysical effects that result from hypothetical conversion of annual to perennial bioenergy crops across the central United States impart a significant local to regional cooling with considerable implications for the reservoir of stored soil water. This cooling effect is related mainly to local increases in transpiration, but also to higher albedo. The reduction in radiative forcing from albedo alone is equivalent to a carbon emissions reduction of , which is six times larger than the annual biogeochemical effects that arise from offsetting fossil fuel use. Thus, in the near-term, the biogeophysical effects are an important aspect of climate impacts of biofuels, even at the global scale. Locally, the simulated cooling is sufficiently large to partially offset projected warming due to increasing greenhouse gases over the next few decades. These results demonstrate that a thorough evaluation of costs and benefits of bioenergy-related land-use change must include potential impacts on the surface energy and water balance to comprehensively address important concerns for local, regional, and global climate change.