Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918

Could Environment Affect the Mutation of H1N1 Influenza Virus?

H1N1 subtype influenza A viruses are the most common type of influenza A virus to infect humans. The two major outbreaks of the virus in 1918 and 2009 had a great impact both on human health and social development. Though data on their complete genome sequences have recently been obtained, the evolution and mutation of A/H1N1 viruses remain unknown to this day. Among many drivers, the impact of environmental factors on mutation is a novel hypothesis worth studying. Here, a geographically disaggregated method was used to explore the relationship between environmental factors and mutation of A/H1N1 viruses from 2000-2019. All of the 11,721 geo-located cases were examined and the data was analysed of six environmental elements according to the time and location (latitude and longitude) of those cases. The main mutation value was obtained by comparing the sequence of the influenza virus strain with the earliest reported sequence. It was found that environmental factors systematically affect the mutation of A/H1N1 viruses. Minimum temperature displayed a nonlinear, rising association with mutation, with a maximum ~15 °C. The effects of precipitation and social development index (nighttime light) were more complex, while population density was linearly and positively correlated with mutation of A/H1N1 viruses. Our results provide novel insight into understanding the complex relationships between mutation of A/H1N1 viruses and environmental factors.