Estimating the variance of male fecundity from genotypes of progeny arrays: evaluation of the Bayesian forward approach

Extensive pollen-mediated gene flow across intensively managed landscapes in an insect-pollinated shrub native to semiarid habitats

Our knowledge of the impact of landscape fragmentation on gene flow patterns is mainly drawn from tropical and temperate ecosystems, where landscape features, such as the distance of a tree to the forest edge, drive connectivity and mating patterns. Yet, the structure of arid and semiarid plant communities - with open canopies and a scattered distribution of trees - differs greatly from those that are well-characterized in the literature. As a result, we ignore whether the documented consequences of landscape fragmentation on plant mating and gene flow patterns also hold for native plant communities in arid and semiarid regions. We investigated the relative contribution of plant traits, pollinator activity, and individual neighbourhood in explaining variation in mating and gene flow patterns of an insect-pollinated semiarid arborescent shrub, Ziziphus lotus, at three sites embedded in highly altered agriculture landscapes. We used 14 SSRs, seed paternity analyses, and individual mixed effect mating models (MEMMi) to estimate the individual mating variables and the pollen dispersal kernel at each site. Individual spatial location, flower density, and floral visitation rate explained most of the variation of mating variables. Unexpectedly, individual correlated paternity was very low and shrubs surrounded by the most degraded matrix exhibited an increased fraction of pollen immigration and a high effective number of pollen donors per mother shrub. Overall, our results reveal that an active pollinator assemblage ensures highly efficient mating, and maintains pollen-mediated gene flow and notable connectivity levels, even in highly altered landscapes, potentially halting genetic isolation within and between distant sites.

Identification of determinants of pollen donor fecundity using the hierarchical neighborhood model

Individual differences in male reproductive success drive genetic drift and natural selection, altering genetic variation and phenotypic trait distributions in future generations. Therefore, identifying the determinants of reproductive success is important for understanding the ecology and evolution of plants. Here, based on the spatially explicit mating model (the neighborhood model), we develop a hierarchical probability model that links co-dominant genotypes of offspring and candidate parents with phenotypic determinants of male reproductive success. The model accounts for pollen dispersal, genotyping errors as well as individual variation in selfing, pollen immigration, and differentiation of immigrant pollen pools. Unlike the classic neighborhood model approach, our approach is specially designed to account for excessive variation (overdispersion) in male fecundity. We implemented a Bayesian estimation method (the Windows computer program available at: https://www.ukw.edu.pl/pracownicy/plik/igor_chybicki/1806/) that, among others, allows for selecting phenotypic variables important for male fecundity and assessing the fraction of variance in fecundity (R² ) explained by selected variables. Simulations showed that our method outperforms both the classic neighborhood model and the two-step approach, where fecundities and the effects of phenotypic variables are estimated separately. The analysis of two data examples showed that in wind-pollinated trees, male fecundity depends on both the amount of produced pollen and the ability to pollen spread. However, despite that the tree size was positively correlated with male fecundity, it explained only a fraction of the total variance in fecundity, indicating the presence of additional factors. Finally, case studies highlighted the importance of accounting for pollen dispersal in the estimation of fecundity determinants.

How does contemporary selection shape oak phenotypes?

Most existing forests are subjected to natural and human-mediated selection pressures, which have increased due to climate change and the increasing needs of human societies for wood, fibre and fuel resources. It remains largely unknown how these pressures trigger evolutionary changes. We address this issue here for temperate European oaks (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), which grow in mixed stands, under even-aged management regimes. We screened numerous functional traits for univariate selection gradients and for expected and observed genetic changes over two successive generations. In both species, growth, leaf morphology and physiology, and defence-related traits displayed significant selection gradients and predicted shifts, whereas phenology, water metabolism, structure and resilience-related traits did not. However, the direction of the selection response and the potential for adaptive evolution differed between the two species. Quercus petraea had a much larger phenotypic and genetic variance of fitness than Q. robur. This difference raises concerns about the adaptive response of Q. robur to contemporary selection pressures. Our investigations suggest that Q. robur will probably decline steadily, particularly in mixed stands with Q. petraea, consistent with the contrasting demographic dynamics of the two species.

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long-lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common-garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change-induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short-term population survival in a changing climate.

Quantifying temporal isolation: a modelling approach assessing the effect of flowering time differences on crop-to-weed pollen flow in sunflower

Flowering time divergence can be a crucial component of reproductive isolation between sympatric populations, but few studies have quantified its actual contribution to the reduction of gene flow. In this study, we aimed at estimating pollen-mediated gene flow between cultivated sunflower and a weedy conspecific sunflower population growing in the same field and at quantifying, how it is affected by the weeds' flowering time. For that purpose, we extended an existing mating model by including a temporal distance (i.e. flowering time difference between potential parents) effect on mating probabilities. Using phenological and genotypic data gathered on the crop and on a sample of the weedy population and its offspring, we estimated an average hybridization rate of approximately 10%. This rate varied strongly from 30% on average for weeds flowering at the crop flowering peak to 0% when the crop finished flowering and was affected by the local density of weeds. Our result also suggested the occurrence of other factors limiting crop-to-weed gene flow. This level of gene flow and its dependence on flowering time might influence the evolutionary fate of weedy sunflower populations sympatric to their crop relative.

Genetic structuring of remnant forest patches in an endangered medicinal tree in North-western Ethiopia

Background

Habitat loss and fragmentation may have detrimental impacts on genetic diversity, population structure and overall viability of tropical trees. The response of tropical trees to fragmentation processes may, however, be species, cohort or region-specific. Here we test the hypothesis that forest fragmentation is associated with lower genetic variability and higher genetic differentiation in adult and seedling populations of Prunus africana in North-western Ethiopia. This is a floristically impoverished region where all but a few remnant forest patches have been destroyed, mostly by anthropogenic means.

Results

Genetic diversity (based on allelic richness) was significantly greater in large and less-isolated forest patches as well as in adults than seedlings. Nearly all pairwise F_ST comparisons showed evidence for significant population genetic differentiation. Mean F_ST values were significantly greater in seedlings than adults, even after correction for within population diversity, but varied little with patch size or isolation.

Conclusions

Analysis of long-lived adult trees suggests the formerly contiguous forest in North-western Ethiopia probably exhibited strong spatial patterns of genetic structure. This means that protecting a range of patches including small and isolated ones is needed to conserve the extant genetic resources of the valuable forests in this region. However, given the high livelihood dependence of the local community and the high impact of foreign investors on forest resources of this region, in situ conservation efforts alone may not be helpful. Therefore, these efforts should be supported with ex situ gene conservation actions.

Seeing the forest through the trees: comprehensive inference on individual mating patterns in a mixed stand of Quercus robur and Q. petraea

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Sexual reproduction is one of the most important moments in a life cycle, determining the genetic composition of individual offspring. Controlled pollination experiments often show high variation in the mating system at the individual level, suggesting a persistence of individual variation in natural populations. Individual variation in mating patterns may have significant adaptive implications for a population and for the entire species. Nevertheless, field data rarely address individual differences in mating patterns, focusing rather on averages. This study aimed to quantify individual variation in the different components of mating patterns.

METHODS

Microsatellite data were used from 421 adult trees and 1911 seeds, structured in 72 half-sib families collected in a single mixed stand of Quercus robur and Q. petraea in northern Poland. Using a Bayesian approach, mating patterns were investigated, taking into account pollen dispersal, male fecundity, possible hybridization and heterogeneity in immigrant pollen pools.

KEY RESULTS

Pollen dispersal followed a heavy-tailed distribution (283 m on average). In spite of high pollen mobility, immigrant pollen pools showed strong genetic structuring among mothers. At the individual level, immigrant pollen pools showed highly variable divergence rates, revealing that sources of immigrant pollen can vary greatly among particular trees. Within the stand, the distribution of male fecundity appeared highly skewed, with a small number of dominant males, resulting in a ratio of census to effective density of pollen donors of 5·3. Male fecundity was not correlated with tree diameter but showed strong cline-like spatial variation. This pattern can be attributed to environmental variation. Quercus petraea revealed a greater preference (74 %) towards intraspecific mating than Q. robur (36 %), although mating preferences varied among trees.

CONCLUSIONS

Mating patterns can reveal great variation among individuals, even within a single even-age stand. The results show that trees can mate assortatively, with little respect for spatial proximity. Such selective mating may be a result of variable combining compatibility among trees due to genetic and/or environmental factors.

Assessment of spatial discordance of primary and effective seed dispersal of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) by ecological and genetic methods

Spatial discordance between primary and effective dispersal in plant populations indicates that postdispersal processes erase the seed rain signal in recruitment patterns. Five different models were used to test the spatial concordance of the primary and effective dispersal patterns in a European beech (Fagus sylvatica) population from central Spain. An ecological method was based on classical inverse modelling (SSS), using the number of seed/seedlings as input data. Genetic models were based on direct kernel fitting of mother-to-offspring distances estimated by a parentage analysis or were spatially explicit models based on the genotype frequencies of offspring (competing sources model and Moran-Clark's Model). A fully integrated mixed model was based on inverse modelling, but used the number of genotypes as input data (gene shadow model). The potential sources of error and limitations of each seed dispersal estimation method are discussed. The mean dispersal distances for seeds and saplings estimated with these five methods were higher than those obtained by previous estimations for European beech forests. All the methods show strong discordance between primary and effective dispersal kernel parameters, and for dispersal directionality. While seed rain was released mostly under the canopy, saplings were established far from mother trees. This discordant pattern may be the result of the action of secondary dispersal by animals or density-dependent effects; that is, the Janzen-Connell effect.

Disentangling the causes of heterogeneity in male fecundity in gynodioecious Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima

Variation among individuals in reproductive success is advocated as a major process driving evolution of sexual polymorphisms in plants, such as gynodioecy where females and hermaphrodites coexist. In gynodioecious Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima, sex determination involves cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) genes and nuclear restorers of male fertility. Both restored CMS and non-CMS hermaphrodites co-occur. Genotype-specific differences in male fitness are theoretically expected to explain the maintenance of cytonuclear polymorphism. Using genotypic information on seedlings and flowering plants within two metapopulations, we investigated whether male fecundity was influenced by ecological, phenotypic and genetic factors, while taking into account the shape and scale of pollen dispersal. Along with spatially restricted pollen flow, we showed that male fecundity was affected by flowering synchrony, investment in reproduction, pollen production and cytoplasmic identity of potential fathers. Siring success of non-CMS hermaphrodites was higher than that of restored CMS hermaphrodites. However, the magnitude of the difference in fecundity depended on the likelihood of carrying restorer alleles for non-CMS hermaphrodites. Our results suggest the occurrence of a cost of silent restorers, a condition supported by scarce empirical evidence, but theoretically required to maintain a stable sexual polymorphism in gynodioecious species.