Disentangling plastic and genetic changes in body mass of Siberian jays

Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns.

Varying Levels of Genetic Control and Phenotypic Plasticity in Timing of Bud Burst, Flower Opening, Leaf Senescence and Leaf Fall in Two Common Gardens of Prunus padus L.

Several phenological phases mark the seasonal growth pattern in temperate woody perennials. To gain further insight into the way these phases react on an altering growth environment, we tested whether vegetative and reproductive phenophases in a shrub species respond differentially among different genetic entities and between two different planting sites. We scored leaf bud burst, flower opening, leaf senescence and leaf fall on 267 ramets of Prunus padus L. belonging to 53 genotypes that were sampled in 9 local populations, and that were planted in 2 common gardens in the northern part of Belgium. The data were processed with cumulative logistic regression. The contribution of genetic and non-genetic components to the total variability varied between the four studied seasonal phenophases. The timing of flower opening displayed the smallest relative amount of intragenotypic variance (between ramets), suggesting a stronger genetic control and a lesser need at the individual plant level for plastic fine tuning to the micro-environment. In addition, whereas leaf bud burst showed the highest relative variance at the interpopulation level among all phenophases, probably at least partly attributable to local adaptation, flower opening displayed the highest intergenotypic variance, which may have been promoted more by assortative mating. Spring phenophases were strongly correlated (r = 0.89) as well as the autumnal phenophases (r = 0.72). Flower opening was not correlated with the autumnal phenophases. Timing of leaf bud burst and leaf senescence were negatively correlated, demonstrating that the length of the growing season enlarged or diminished among the studied genotypes. Although the two planting sites were only 24 km apart, all phenophases were advanced at the less exposed site, indicating a phenotypic plastic response. Together, our results suggest that in P. padus, flowering is less sensitive to environmental variation than leaf bud break and may show a lesser impact of a changing environment on this reproductive phenophase.

The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population

Changing environmental conditions cause changes in the distributions of phenotypic traits in natural populations. However, determining the mechanisms responsible for these changes—and, in particular, the relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity versus evolutionary responses—is difficult. To our knowledge, no study has yet reported evidence that evolutionary change underlies the most widely reported phenotypic response to climate change: the advancement of breeding times. In a wild population of red deer, average parturition date has advanced by nearly 2 weeks in 4 decades. Here, we quantify the contribution of plastic, demographic, and genetic components to this change. In particular, we quantify the role of direct phenotypic plasticity in response to increasing temperatures and the role of changes in the population structure. Importantly, we show that adaptive evolution likely played a role in the shift towards earlier parturition dates. The observed rate of evolution was consistent with a response to selection and was less likely to be due to genetic drift. Our study provides a rare example of observed rates of genetic change being consistent with theoretical predictions, although the consistency would not have been detected with a solely phenotypic analysis. It also provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contributing to advances in phenology in a changing climate.

Adaptive genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity both contribute to a two-week advancement of birth dates earlier in spring in a deer population subject to temperature warming over four decades.

Genomic selection on breeding time in a wild bird population

Artificial selection experiments are a powerful tool in evolutionary biology. Selecting individuals based on multimarker genotypes (genomic selection) has several advantages over phenotype-based selection but has, so far, seen very limited use outside animal and plant breeding. Genomic selection depends on the markers tagging the causal loci that underlie the selected trait. Because the number of necessary markers depends, among other factors, on effective population size, genomic selection may be in practice not feasible in wild populations as most wild populations have much higher effective population sizes than domesticated populations. However, the current possibilities of cost-effective high-throughput genotyping could overcome this limitation and thereby make it possible to apply genomic selection also in wild populations. Using a unique dataset of about 2000 wild great tits (Parus major), a small passerine bird, genotyped on a 650 k SNP chip we calculated genomic breeding values for egg-laying date using the so-called GBLUP approach. In this approach, the pedigree-based relatedness matrix of an "animal model," a special form of the mixed model, is replaced by a marker-based relatedness matrix. Using the marker-based relatedness matrix, the model seemed better able to disentangle genetic and permanent environmental effects. We calculated the accuracy of genomic breeding values by correlating them to the phenotypes of individuals whose phenotypes were excluded from the analysis when estimating the genomic breeding values. The obtained accuracy was about 0.20, with very little effect of the used genomic relatedness estimator but a strong effect of the number of SNPs. The obtained accuracy is lower than typically seen in domesticated species but considerable for a trait with low heritability (∼0.2) as avian breeding time. Our results show that genomic selection is possible also in wild populations with potentially many applications, which we discuss here.

Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change-heritability and selection-are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (relating to body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in the expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change, even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be dependent on the environment.

Higher temperatures during development reduce body size in the zebra finch in the laboratory and in the wild

The most commonly documented morphological response across many taxa to climatic variation across their range follows Bergmann's rule, which predicts larger body size in colder climates. In observational data from wild zebra finches breeding across a range of temperatures in the spring and summer, we show that this relationship appears to be driven by the negative effect of high temperatures during development. This idea was then experimentally tested on zebra finches breeding in temperature-controlled climates in the laboratory. These experiments confirmed that those individualso produced in a hot environment (30 °C) were smaller than those produced in cool conditions (18 °C). Our results suggest a proximate causal link between temperature and body size and suggest that a hotter climate during breeding periods could drive significant changes in morphology within and between populations. This effect could account for much of the variation in body size that drives the well-observed patterns first described by Bergmann and that is still largely attributed to selection on adult body size during cold winters. The climate-dependent developmental plasticity that we have demonstrated is an important component in understanding how endotherms may be affected by climate change.

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20^th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20^th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20^th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.

Heritable Micro-environmental Variance Covaries with Fitness in an Outbred Population of Drosophila serrata

The genetic basis of stochastic variation within a defined environment, and the consequences of such micro-environmental variance for fitness are poorly understood . Using a multigenerational breeding design in Drosophila serrata, we demonstrated that the micro-environmental variance in a set of morphological wing traits in a randomly mating population had significant additive genetic variance in most single wing traits. Although heritability was generally low (<1%), coefficients of additive genetic variance were of a magnitude typical of other morphological traits, indicating that the micro-environmental variance is an evolvable trait. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the micro-environmental variance in wings was genetically correlated among single traits, indicating that common mechanisms of environmental buffering exist for this functionally related set of traits. In addition, through the dominance genetic covariance between the major axes of micro-environmental variance and fitness, we demonstrated that micro-environmental variance shares a genetic basis with fitness, and that the pattern of selection is suggestive of variance-reducing selection acting on micro-environmental variance.

Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a hibernating mammal

Morphological changes following changes in species' distribution and phenology have been suggested to be the third universal response to global environmental change. Although structural size and body mass result from different genetic, physiological, and ecological mechanisms, they are used interchangeably in studies evaluating population responses to environmental change. Using a 22-year (1991-2013) dataset including 1768 individuals, we investigated the coupled dynamics of size and mass in a hibernating mammal, the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota), in response to local environmental conditions. We (i) quantified temporal trends in both traits, (ii) determined the environmental drivers of trait dynamics, and (iii) identified the life-history processes underlying the observed changes. Both phenotypic traits were followed through life: we focused on the initial trait value (juvenile size and mass) and later-life development (annual change in size [Δsize] and mass [Δmass]). First, we demonstrated contrasting dynamics between size and mass over the study period. Juvenile size and subsequent Δsize showed significant declines, whereas juvenile mass and subsequent Δmass remained constant. As a consequence of smaller size associated with a similar mass, individuals were in better condition in recent years. Second, size and mass showed different sensitivities to environmental variables. Both traits benefited from early access to resources in spring, whereas Δmass, particularly in early life, also responded to summer and winter conditions. Third, the interannual variation in both traits was caused by changes in early life development. Our study supports the importance of considering the differences between size and mass responses to the environment when evaluating the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. The current practice of focusing on only one trait in population modeling can lead to misleading conclusions when evaluating species' resilience to contemporary climate change.

Individual consistency and phenotypic plasticity in rockhopper penguins: female but not male body mass links environmental conditions to reproductive investment

In marine habitats, increasing ocean temperatures due to global climate change may distinctly reduce nutrient and consequently food availability for seabirds. Food availability is a known driver of body mass and reproductive investment in birds, but these traits may also depend on individual effects. Penguins show extreme intra-annual body mass variation and rely on accumulated body reserves for successful breeding. However, no study so far has tested individual consistency and phenotypic responses in body mass and reproductive investment in this taxon. Using a unique dataset on individually marked female and male southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome) across six years, we investigated 1) the individual consistency in body mass (measured at egg laying), body condition and reproductive investment across years, subsequently 2) identified the best-explanatory temperature-related environmental variables for female and male body mass, and 3) tested the effect of female and male body mass on reproductive investment. Body mass, body condition and reproductive investment were all highly repeatable. As body condition should control for the structural size of the birds, the similarly high repeatability estimates for body mass and body condition suggested that the consistent between-individual body mass differences were independent of structural size. This supported the use of body mass for the subsequent analyses. Body mass was higher under colder environmental conditions (positive Southern Annular Mode), but the overall phenotypic response appeared limited. Reproductive investment increased with female but not male body mass. While environmental effects on body mass in our study period were rather small, one can expect that ongoing global climate change will lead to a deterioration of food availability and we might therefore in the long-term expect a phenotypical decline in body mass and reproductive investment.